Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

[FXCM GBP/USD COMMENTS]
Unsurprisingly, net consumer credit fell once again in the month of September from 1.9B to 1.6B. Along with this week's sharp fall in the home prices, we believe that the Bank of England will stand pat at their monetary policy meeting next week. Movements in the pound should be dictated primarily by dollar developments next week given the importance of non-farm payrolls and the US Presidential elections. Meanwhile Rebecca Riley, a researcher at the NIESR attributed a part of the weakness in inflation to the strength in the British pound.


[IFRMARKETS GBP/USD COMMENTS]
[10:25 GMT October 29] There is a raft of potentially market-moving US data due
today: beginning with advance Q3 GDP at 12:30GMT; ensuing with October's final
Michigan Sentiment survey at 13:45GMT; and concluding with October's Chicago PMI
circa 14:00GMT. Advance Q3 GDP is the highlight, and is forecast +4.4%. A better than
expected number could spur some pre-weekend short USD covering, and depress
cable towards 1.8194 (yesterday's post-China rate hike one-week low). Pre-1.8194
support is located at 1.8289 (Asian session low), 1.8273 (Thursday's Asian
session base), and 1.8255 (Wednesday's late North American session low).
Offers at 1.8340/50, inclusive of UK and Asian name interest, kept a lid on
the pair before the 08:30GMT unveiling of a larger-than-expected easing in UK
September consumer credit growth, and a further decline in UK mortgage
approvals. The soft data makes next week's expected unchanged MPC rate verdict
(Nov 4) ever more certain, and adds to the perception that the peak of the UK
rate tightening cycle has already been reached.

Uncomfortable with the manner in which Cable has been rising but the greenback has stayed firm against the other Europeans. Dumped my Cable long and staying out of the market for the moment until we get a clear break one way or the other.

Been watching late-night (early-morning)news and it seems likely the dollar will firm soon when Bush's victory is finally confirmed. But for how long?

Hope it firms soon! I seem to be going in the wrong direction at the moment!

Sue,

The Dollar broke support this morning. You should now be long Cable (ie short USD) above circa 18350 imo.

CHICAGO (AFX) -- The dollar remained higher against the Japanese yen in U.S. trading Wednesday, with preliminary returns from the presidential election tipped toward incumbent President George Bush, although the final outcome may still be a week or so away.

U.S. stocks were expected to move higher as Bush emerged the probable winner, boosting demand from foreigners for the dollars needed to place U.S. equity investments.

The dollar had been higher against the euro, but had since given ground to Europe's shared currency. The buck also halved its gain against the yen.

'The pre-election bearish sentiment seems to have reasserted itself on the dollar amid deficit concerns and expectations that the reelected Bush administration will let the dollar soften,' said Ronald Simpson, currency analyst with Action Economics.

The dollar was quoted at 106.48 yen, up 0.4 percent from late U.S. trading. A holiday in Japan kept volume light in Asian trading.

The euro was up 0.1 percent at $1.2757. The British pound rose 0.1 percent to $.18436.

Against its Swiss counterpart, the dollar edged down 0.1 percent to 1.2013 francs.

White House Chief of Staff Andrew Card said Wednesday morning that President Bush has secured the Electoral College votes needed. Democratic challenger John Kerry's campaign has said it will await the counting of provisional ballots in the crucial swing state of Ohio.

The dollar was supported overnight as global financial markets grew more confident this year's election, despite its closeness, would be resolved more quickly than in 2000. Worries about a repeat of the prolonged recounting process in the last election have weighed on the dollar in recent sessions.

The key words were 'slight' and 'might,' said James D. Malcolm, foreign exchange strategist at Deutsche Bank in Singapore.

'We might -- might -- get a resolution sooner rather than later, which is giving the dollar a slight -- slight -- lift,' Malcolm said earlier in the trading day. 'In the meantime, everybody is watching the polls, and there's very little appetite to take risk. Volume is fairly low, with not much in the way of directional bets.'

For the euro, '$1.2630 is going to be an important test level,' said Malcolm, as the European currency's recent low was $1.2628. 'If we can trade below that, it will take out some support in the market.'

Bear Stearns currency strategist Steve Barrow said the election outcome is not really important for the dollar's long-term outlook, and therefore declines will likely resume shortly.

'One other issue to bear in mind is that the prospect of a Bush victory has already lifted oil prices sharply, and this could be reflected in some other commodities as well, helping commodity currencies and so limiting any dollar rally,' Barrow said.

J.P. Morgan currency strategist Yen Ping Ho said in a research note Wednesday, said that once the election outcome is decided, focus will switch to the upside risks of non-farm payroll data on Friday.

The latest report is expected to show the U.S. economy added 176,000 jobs last month, according to a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch.

hilary - thanks.

No fxcm???????????????????

are all the strategies for the day before? they all seem to be dated 3erd Nov???

They don't normally appear until mid-morning, Sue. John Hardy at Saxo probably gives the best precis imo shortly after 9am.

thanks hilary.

well that was fun,Hilary hope you did well.

Hilary. Could I ask you where you are getting your streaming news from - you posted the non-farm payroll figure so quickly. Thanks.
Was long with very tight stops, but made up my losses and a little bit more on the spike down and the first bounce up. Should have done what I was going to do - a long with cmc with tight stop, and a short with IG with a tight stop!

Maggot,

They started buying the $ at 13:27, so I suspected that they'd beaten the street. I got the news from Bloomberg. Digital TV though, not the internet which seems to lag.

I had a limit long @1.8390 with a stop at 1.8370 on cmc. both went at same time. fastest 200 I have lost to date. Also set my next long limit to low to profit from bounce. Another day another dollar.

Thanks, Hilary. Bloomberg seem to be pretty good - pity I can't hear them. And as you say there seems to be a two-minute lag before it comes online.

What has hapened to saxo bank market call,can`t get it at the mo,or is it me.

It's been unavailable all week, Cloggs. Don't know why.

Thank`s for that Hilary,long cable but not doing to well at the mo.