hilary
- 31 Dec 2003 13:00
Your browser does not support JavaScript!
|
|
Your browser does not support JavaScript!
|
Your browser does not support inline frames or is currently configured not to display inline frames.
|
Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!
Sue 42
- 03 Nov 2004 16:30
- 1993 of 11056
hilary - thanks.
hilary
- 04 Nov 2004 06:36
- 1994 of 11056
No fxcm???????????????????
Sue 42
- 04 Nov 2004 09:01
- 1995 of 11056
are all the strategies for the day before? they all seem to be dated 3erd Nov???
hilary
- 04 Nov 2004 09:25
- 1996 of 11056
They don't normally appear until mid-morning, Sue. John Hardy at Saxo probably gives the best precis imo shortly after 9am.
Sue 42
- 04 Nov 2004 09:44
- 1997 of 11056
thanks hilary.
Cloggs
- 05 Nov 2004 13:39
- 1998 of 11056
well that was fun,Hilary hope you did well.
Maggot
- 05 Nov 2004 13:54
- 1999 of 11056
Hilary. Could I ask you where you are getting your streaming news from - you posted the non-farm payroll figure so quickly. Thanks.
Was long with very tight stops, but made up my losses and a little bit more on the spike down and the first bounce up. Should have done what I was going to do - a long with cmc with tight stop, and a short with IG with a tight stop!
hilary
- 05 Nov 2004 14:02
- 2000 of 11056
Maggot,
They started buying the $ at 13:27, so I suspected that they'd beaten the street. I got the news from Bloomberg. Digital TV though, not the internet which seems to lag.
Bobcolby
- 05 Nov 2004 15:58
- 2001 of 11056
I had a limit long @1.8390 with a stop at 1.8370 on cmc. both went at same time. fastest 200 I have lost to date. Also set my next long limit to low to profit from bounce. Another day another dollar.
Maggot
- 05 Nov 2004 19:49
- 2002 of 11056
Thanks, Hilary. Bloomberg seem to be pretty good - pity I can't hear them. And as you say there seems to be a two-minute lag before it comes online.
Cloggs
- 09 Nov 2004 11:30
- 2003 of 11056
What has hapened to saxo bank market call,can`t get it at the mo,or is it me.
hilary
- 09 Nov 2004 11:40
- 2004 of 11056
It's been unavailable all week, Cloggs. Don't know why.
Cloggs
- 09 Nov 2004 11:50
- 2005 of 11056
Thank`s for that Hilary,long cable but not doing to well at the mo.
hilary
- 09 Nov 2004 12:08
- 2006 of 11056
Bit of uncertainty and position squaring ahead of the FOMC, I'd say. It's had a good run up these last few weeks.
hilary
- 10 Nov 2004 07:37
- 2007 of 11056
LONDON (Reuters) - Hedge funds may have triggered it, but the dollar's sharp slide over the past few weeks is more than just speculation -- it is a reflection of mainstream investors scrambling to dump the currency.
Whether the sell-off is warranted remains a matter of contention. But at least for now, momentum is propelling the dollar to record lows against the euro and unnerving some investors and companies who had bet differently.
"At the moment, the market has got the bit between its teeth," said Paul Duncombe, head of currency management at State Street Global Advisors. "(The dollar) can certainly go a lot further."
The dollar was testing $1.30 to the euro on Monday, having fallen in value from around $1.24 in mid-October when currency strategists said it broke definitively out of a 7-1/2 month trading range.
Given that a Reuters poll in mid-September showed leading investors expecting an end-year rate of around $1.20, the fall must have caught many by surprise.
Strategists said that the original mid-October break came courtesy of hedge funds who were testing the levels. After that, others -- medium-term investors, Middle East accounts and some corporates -- got into the act, buying euros before the price rose too high.
Increasingly, the pressure is also on those European companies which have not yet moved to protect their dollar-based earnings from the currency's downturn.
Thanos Papasavvas, currency strategist at Credit Suisse Asset Management, said his fund firm shorted the dollar when it broke out of the range at $1.2450 in mid-October.
"We hear that European corporates have not been doing that, so they have been caught on the wrong foot," he said.
THE BUCK STOPS WHERE?
One gauge of how strong the current momentum is came on Friday after the U.S. Labour Department reported that non-farm payrolls rose twice as much as economists had expected.
Implying strength in the U.S. economy and further scope for interest rate increases from the U.S. Federal Reserve, the surprise data should have lifted the dollar. In the event, it did so only briefly before the decline resumed and the euro hit an all-time high.
"I think this is a pretty good guide (to) just how entrenched negative sentiment is toward the dollar," Richard Franulovich, senior currency strategist with Westpac Banking, said at the time.
A second gauge came on Monday when European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said that recent moves were "unwelcome" -- the kind of comment that in the past has bolstered the dollar. The dollar did firm, but only briefly and the move was muted.
So where does the dollar go from here?
As for much of the year, the answer depends on what side of the great dollar divide you are on -- whether the large and growing U.S. current account deficit spells continuing weakness, or whether the U.S. economic landscape means dollar strength.
Mark Farrington, head of currency at Principal Global Investors, belongs to the latter camp.
He said the dollar is driven primarily by interest rate expectations and Friday's jobs data gave scope for the Fed to tighten more than earlier softness had implied -- a factor that will eventually lift the dollar.
"We are nowhere near the end with the Fed," he said, describing the current dollar sell-off as "a classic deviation from fundamentals driven by emotions".
PERHAPS NOT HERE
Ranged against that view are those who see little to stop the dollar from falling to offset the current account deficit.
The re-elected administration of U.S. President George W. Bush, it is argued on the one hand, will allow the dollar to decline, boosting U.S. exporters.
"Bush's non-interventionist or laissez-faire ethos means there will be no standing in the way of a dollar in need of further depreciation against all currencies," Mike Lenhoff, chief strategist at wealth manager Brewin Dolphin Securities, wrote last week.
Trichet's ECB, meanwhile, is seen as benefiting from a higher euro as it eases inflationary pressures, particularly energy prices.
Its biggest fear is that the dollar decline will be faster than it has been to date.
Sentiment -- as judged by market moves -- clearly appears to be leaning heavily to the weak dollar side at the moment.
It could be driven even further if Europe's corporates truly have not hedged enough and are still long on dollars.
Credit Suisse's Papasavvas said both corporates and investment houses would take any slight strengthening of the dollar as an opportunity to sell. "We would expect some correction to take place, but not by more than a point or two, before fresh selling comes back in," he said.
hilary
- 11 Nov 2004 10:08
- 2008 of 11056
TTT for MM
hilary
- 11 Nov 2004 10:16
- 2010 of 11056
Suppose I'll have to do it myself then! You just can't get the staff nowadays.
:o)
Bobcolby
- 16 Nov 2004 08:31
- 2011 of 11056
Anyone any news or views on Cable today?
hilary
- 16 Nov 2004 08:39
- 2012 of 11056
It's a long atm, Bob