LONDON (AFX) - Chaco Resources PLC said it is proposing the reverse takeover
of two Paraguayan companies -- Amerisur SA and Bohemia SA -- from Candey SA and
Daniel Sztern in exchange for 27,322,404 new ordinary shares in the company.
It also plans to raise up to 750,000 stg before expenses in a placing of
36,585,365 new ordinary shares.
The company's shares were suspended on Sept 3 and it said it expects this to
be lifted today. It has called an EGM for Nov 15 to approve the acquisition and
placing plans.
Amerisur holds two oil and gas prospecting permits in Paraguay and is the
registered applicant for exploration and exploitation concession contracts over
the same permit areas. Bohemia holds registered applications for an oil and gas
prospecting permit in Paraguay and for an exploration and exploitation
concession contract over the same area.
The exploration areas covered by these three applications comprise a total of
approximately 48,000 square kilometres of the Curypayty and Parana Basins.
Chaco said these basins extend respectively into Bolivia and Brazil, where
commercial oil and gas production has been established for many years from
similar geological sections.

sharesure

If it was that much of a done deal why do you feel that Chaco is currently only 16p.
Don't get me wrong I have just recently bought but am considering buying more due to many of the reasons you have mentioned, but if we can see it why doesn't the market?

MPH, I came to a similar conclusion using a different route, with a share price of 298p.

***VALUATION OF CHACO WITH PRIMAVERA***

The current share price is 16p and my realistic valuation per share, discounted to present day values is 298p, based on 400m bls.

This increases to a share price of 341p once Colombia introduces the reduced rate of corporation tax at 28.5%.

Im using the same approach as previously, based on Chacos own figures as included in their AGM Presentation (see Updated AGM Columbia Presentation http://www.chacoplc.com/index.html ) and provided at the AGM.

Shares in issue - at 31.3.05 390m, plus shares issued re Paraguay 19m, placing 85m, placing on 17th Feb 13.6m and options 13m. TOTAL 521M shares in isuue.

Oil price assumed $65 at an exchange rate of US$/ of 1.75.

Net assets:
1. Per balance sheet 31.3.05 - 1.3m
2. Cash from 17th Feb placing - 1.5m
3. Future cash from exercise of options - 0.5m
4. Columbia, Alea, net present value end 2006 $100m - 57m
5. Columbia, Puerto Lopez, 2006 NPV could be worth $63m - 36m
6. Paraguay, my estimated value of Chaco in Paraguay - 18m.

Therefore, the current 2006 net present value of Chaco's current assets is 114m.

The value per share of Chaco's assets is therefore 114m divided by 521m shares, giving 22p.

Primavera:

Chaco has a 55% stake
Resource assupmtion 400m barrels
Oil price is currently around $65
vs $ rate is currently around 1.75
Future values are discounted at 10% pa.

Puerto Lopez has a Net Present Value of $63m for a 55% share based on a 10m resource estimate at $65 per barrel.

By multiplying the Puerto Lopez value of $63m by 40 we can get an estimate of the potential of the Primavera field. This value of Primavera is $2520m or 1440m in our money. This equates to a net present value share price of 276p for Primavera alone.

Chaco has to drill 3 shallow holes to test Mirador to validate their resource assumptions. Their licence probably commits them to do this within 12 months of getting the licence. However, past holes have all showed oil and one flowed oil. All of these were drilled substantially off structure. Modern seismic also indicates more than ten untested structural closures, some of which are very large in areal extent.

Adding Primavera, to the other assets gives a net present value per share of 22p (other assets) plus 276p (Primavera) giving 298p.

The above is based on a corporation tax rate of 38.5% in Colombia. The government there is proposing to reduce it to 28.5%, which would increase the valuation per share to 341p.

The current share price is 16p!

yuff, I think the anwer has to do with uncertainty. Basically, most people don't like uncertainty and don't trust the work and motives of others. Also, many investors/traders don't do the fundamental research and operate in different ways. The share price will, IMHO, depend upon the RNS and what it contains. We are merely showing the potential if, if........

Regards,
KJ

Will we get an RNS at 12.00 or will it be tomorrow or next week? Any views?

Last 10 minutes has doubled the morning buys and @ a higher price.
2517

Thought it may be interesting for you chaco regulars on this board to predict a price on good news and not so good news. If i may im`e going to start the ball rolling with good news=22p-28p, not so good news 10p-12p. Come on lads join in and give us your predictions.

KJK, I have done similar calculations to yourself a few months ago (post#1211 and 970) and also came to a similar conclusion. The ambiguity came over what price to value oil at in the ground.

My current figures are not really a calculation on asset value as such, but a calculation based on how the market valued oil in the ground on another share (CNE) in a similar situation and extrapolating that to Chaco's current status.

It is good to see that ultimately the conlusion is still the same regardless of the approach.

Pisces,my predictions[with no scientific basis i.e. a total guess] good news 20-24p not so good [bad!!] news 8-12p

I've topped up again today :O

30-32p Good
8-10p Bad

Well I hope you are wrong if we have bad news as that will be quite a knock for me and I guess a few others

Peter

Well, if unproven oil in the ground is worth $5 rather than $65, this reduces KJK's value to 23p. Given the history of these assets and the higher than average indication of oil in the ground, you might go for $10 a barrel, which gives you a fair value of 46p.

So
good news 35p within a week of the RNS, not all in one day
indeterminate news 12p
bad news - who cares, I'm gone

sd

stockdog, $65 is not the value of oil in the ground it is an assumed oil price (based on the approximate price currently) before deducting all costs of exrtacting and selling it. See Chaco's figures in their presentation.

Last chance to get in today-news may come early Friday!I have seen news is imminent several times which to me means this week!

where the hell is this news, its driving me crazy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

KJK - I know, so I was taking a deeply conservative view of only valuing oil in the ground - and it still works for me to more than double my investment within a few weeks. As wells are drilled and oil is finally pumped to the surface I can allow an ever increasing "risked" oil price until I too arrive at your figures over a few years, although I would not use $65 just yet, but $55 as the mid-long-term price - who cares about that difference from where we are standing. Just my way of acounting for the risk that the oil is not there in the shape or form predicted, may need more wells than planned, and any other difficulties of getting it to the surface.

sd

Here's hoping for some good news today...........

"Patience is a virtue, one hard to come by in a world that counts time in nanoseconds."
Maureen Killoran

"Trust your mind to think with time;
patience is the key."
Nathan Watson, from It Will Come

All things come to him who waits - provided he knows what he is waiting for.
Woodrow T. Wilson

Everything comes gradually and at its appointed hour.
Ovid

Doesn't help trix!

I think it would be sensible for investors to be holding/buying soon with the 15th deadline getting nearer.

Sorry I'm lost, what 15th deadline - is there one? appreciate your clarification