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FTSE / DOW YTD

Morning!

In the US last night, the Dow finished up 41.23 at 18,355.00 the Nasdaq up 22.01 at 5,159.74 and the S&P 500 up 6.76 at 2,163.79.

In Asia, the Nikkei was recently up 167.99 points at 16,247.16 - the Hang Seng up 136.17 at 21,875.25.

WTI crude oil traded at $40.83 a barrel and Brent at $43.10.

Gold settled at $1,356.10 an ounce.

Trade well and prosper!

Opening Market Summary

Guardian Stock Brokers

INDICES
FTSE 100

The FTSE is in the process of pushing higher this morning, with gains in the US feeding through to FTSE futures last night. However, this rally is likely to be brief, with the downtrend clearly intact. Certainly today’s BoE decision has the potential to derail it and as such, it could be worth taking off short term positions around the event. However, for now the downtrend is still in play and we would need to see an hourly close back above 6675 to negate this bearish view. The next key support level is at 6613.


DAX

The DAX has been rallying heavily over the past 24 hours, with price pushing into the head and shoulders neckline resistance. With the 76.4% retracement also up ahead, it seems likely that we will see the DAX turn lower once more in the coming hours. We would need to see a break through 10344 to negate this recent downtrend.


Dow

The Dow has rallied into the 76.4% retracement, within a clear downtrend. Given the trend in place, this seems like an interesting area to get short once more, with a break through 18401 required to negate this downtrend. A signal that we are set to move lower would come with an hourly close below 18335, providing greater confidence of an impending sell-off.


FX
GBPUSD

July’s tale has been replicated in August, namely that $1.34 continues to be too much of a barrier for upside progress here. The pair remains stuck in a bearish trend, with little sign that a real upward move is on the cards – today’s BoE meeting has certainly stayed the hand of sterling bulls, with the ongoing tide of negative data not helping matters. A significant dovish shift on the MPC today might see the pair head down towards $1.32, and then on to possible support around $1.3050.


EURUSD

The pair has yet to regain the heights seen earlier in the year at $1.15, and yesterday’s sharp reversal suggests a period of USD strength may be in the offing. As a result we could see a move back to the 200-day SMA ($1.1078), and then perhaps down to the late-July low around $1.0950. Nevertheless, buying the dips has been the approach to take here since February, with sustained weakness likely to bring out fresh buyers.


AUDUSD

Gains have stalled since late June around $0.76, with the past few days repeating that pattern. Nonetheless, for now the uptrend goes on, so weakness back in the direction of $0.74 could see fresh buyers emerge. There is a clear amount of resistance from $0.76 to $0.77, with a break above the latter potentially heading towards the mid-April highs at $0.7850.


COMMODITIES
Gold

Gold has seen a sharp pullback overnight, following a downside break from a symmetrical triangle formation. Price has not broken below the $1346 support level which means that we remain within an uptrend. As such, another leg higher seems likely from current levels. Given that price is currently around the 76.4% retracement, it makes more sense to be long for a move back to $1367 than below $1346 given the 3/1 risk to reward ration attainable. This bullish view would be negated should we see an hourly close below $1346.


Brent

Brent appears to have broken out of its downtrend, with price pushing through the crucial $43.22 level. Interestingly, the trendline break provided a good indication of this break. Essentially unless price moves back below $41.64, another leg higher seems likely. As such, a bullish outlook is in play, with retracements down to the 61.8% ($42.43) or 76.4% ($42.13) providing bulls with an interesting entry area.


US Crude

US crude has also broken through a key resistance level, $41.23, thus creating a new higher high. This means we have confirmation of the move across both Brent and WTI. As such, a bullish outlook is in play, with further gains likely. The depth of this pullback is difficult to predict, yet either an hourly close above $41.74 or a move back into a key Fibonacci level (61.8% at $40.41 or 76.4% at $40.09) would provide a good area to get long. We would need to see an hourly close below $39.59 to negate this bullish view.


Disclaimer

This research has been produced by an independent third party provider. Further details can be provided on request. Guardian Stockbrokers Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (No. 492519). This report has been prepared using information available from public sources, which are believed to be reliable as at the date of this report. However, Guardian Stockbrokers, its employees and its independent third party provider make no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of this report. This report should therefore not be relied on as accurate or complete. The facts and opinions on this report are subject to change without notice. Guardian Stockbrokers, its employees and its independent third party provider have no obligation to modify or update this report in the event that any information on this report becomes inaccurate. This report is prepared for informational purpose only, with no recommendation or solicitation to buy or to sell. The background of any individual or other investor has not been considered in providing this report. Individuals and other investors should seek independent financial advice which considers their specific risks, objectives and specific constraints, and make their own informed decisions. Individuals and other investors should note that investing in shares carries a degree of risk and the value of investments can go up or down. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Investments should be made with regard to an investor’s total portfolio. Guardian Stockbrokers, its independent third party provider and its employees make no representation or guarantee with regard to any investment noted on this report, and shall therefore not be liable with regard to any loss.

GBP Official Bank Rate 0.25% 0.25% 0.50%

GBP Asset Purchase Facility 435B 375B 375B

GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes 6-0-3 0-0-9 0-0-9