Gold

S&P &Futures (Click for latest)

Hang Seng+13

Nasdaq+175

Oil, Gold & Bonds prices crash as the equity market futures surge on the positive allied news from Iraq.   SARS continues its March across the Far East,

<Warning> Michael Page recruitment 1st Quarter Trading Update reports 2003 revenue of 42.8m, 14% lower than the 49.5m in first quarter of 2002.  The Company stated that activity levels had slowed in the fourth quarter of 2002 and that the weakening had continued into the first quarter of 2003.

EasyJet reported the number of passengers carried in March soared 32.2 percent on last year and said aggressive cost control had reduced the impact of weaker fares. However I believe this may be lower than analyst forecasts but I haven't got the figures?. They said its load factor was 85.8 % in March, up slightly from 85 % last year.

BT rebrand's its image with a new company logo reflecting the new multimedia age.

Xstrata mining said it had agreed to buy Australian miner MIM Holdings for A$1.72 a share in cash, and was planning to raise more capital to fund the $2.96 billion dealMMO2 may be active after a weekend press report that it has held informal talks with Dutch telecoms group KPN Sainsbury said it would add the equivalent of 10,000 part-time jobs at its stores in a move to cut the length of queues at peak times but may .cut head office staffing levels.GSK along with Bayer may have to wait longer to launch their Viagra after the watchdog ordered further scrutiny of the clinical data after results were not up to expectations,Holmes Place a private equity group plans to launch an agreed bid in the next few days/BAE is poised to win a one billion pound eal to support Hawk jet trainers to the Royal Air ForceInvensys Several reports said the engineering firm will take a step toward breaking up the company as it embarks on a new round of asset disposals.Chesterton The British property services firm is set to leave the stockmarket following a takeover bid from one of its largest shareholdersScottish & Southern is close to acquiring Midlands, the electricity distribution network owned by the U.S.' Aquila

Calendar All GMT	United Kingdom (F)inals (I)nterim	United States (Click Flag)	Europe & World
Monday	09.30 Feb Industrial / Manufacturing  Prod	20.00 February consumer credit	11.00 EMU Q4 revised labour costs y/y
Good Trading!   David@FTSEDOW.com    www.FTSEDOW.com            Pivot Calulator

Arm Holdings(I), Coliseum(F), Henry Boot(F), Pubs'n' Bars

EGM's: Nettec

BRC March retail sales monitor

Bank of America, IBM, Unisys

Business Inventories 8:30ET

Debenhams(I), Collins & Hayes (F) Georgica (F), Maverick Entertainment(F)

Burberry Trading Statement

AGM's: AB Ports, British American Tobacco CW Residential,

Dobbies Garden, Hemscott, Lavendon Group Law Debenture Corp, Pendragon, Transcomm

CitiGroup, General Motors, Motorola, Texas InstrumentsMBA Purchase Applications 7:00 Consumer Price Index 8:30,

Housing Starts 8:30

BTM-UBSW Store Sales 7:45 Redbook 8:55,  Industrial Production Figures 9:15

Associated British Foods(I), Clinton Cards (F) Wireless Group(F)

GUS Trading Statement

AGMs  Britannic Global, British Vita, Chepstow Racecourse Gibbs & Dandy, Lonrho Africa

Akzo Nobel, Alcan, Apple, Ford, MGM,

Coca Cola,

Double Witching Day Jobless Claims 8:30ET Philadelphia Fed Survey 12:00ET Money Supply 4:30ET

WH Smith (I)

Colgate, Delta Airlines,

Good Friday (Markets Closed)

Good Friday (Markets Closed)

The Budget: Well someone has to pay the bill for Iraq! Shoppers, smokers, drinkers and house-buyers to brace themselves for a painful Budget on Wednesday. A crackdown on cross-Channel smuggling: 8p and 13p to be slapped on a packet of 20 cigarettes, taking the average price to 4.50 The Chancellor may spring a surprise and increase duty on alcoholic products.' An extra 25p-35p on spirits bottles, 1p-3p on beer and 9p-11p on wine. 1-2p more on a litre of petrol, although many pundits have ruled out an increase given recent war-related pump price rises. Despite the slowdown in High Street spending 1/3 of analysts expecting a rise in VAT to 19% on its way tp Europes to 22% rate. A rise in stamp duty on property sales of more than 500,000 from 4% to 7%, again to match Europe. A possible 5% VAT may be introduced on new-build homes, slapping more than 6,000 on the average 125,000 house. Previously announced rises in National Insurance kick in but he might announce an extra 3% for everyone from next April He may also freeze income tax bands for a second year, dragging more earners into higher rates. Everyone of working age Measures will meam an effective 1% hike in income tax for all. Someone earning 20,000 a year will be 154 worse off.

Those who gross 60,000 will be charged 605 more.

He might raise the threshold where NI drops from 11% to 1% - maybe up from 30,940 to 34,515 to match the top rate income tax limit. Increasing the upper earnings limit to the higher rate tax threshold could raise around 1bn

Trading Thoughts  Sunday 6th April

Again High Street results & forecasts will dominate the market next week along with the Budget.

Again High Street results & forecasts will dominate the market next week along with the Budget.

Monday:

Will give an indication if the slowdown in U.k. manufacturing is continuing with the February production figures at 9:30. My Engineering watch list will be at hand with GKN & Smiths industries at the top of the list.

Tuesday:

Marks & Spencer will update the market on its trading and there is a feeling it could show that consumer spending is slowing down. Possible short on Monday with cautious traders selling positions.LA Fitness is expected to report a fall in interim profits after already warning of difficult trading conditions, a feeling which was later echoed by rival Holmes Place in a profits. A possible short on MondayJJB Sports is expected to report annual profits down to 90m from 110.2m the previous year. What will be more of interest is news on the possible future ownership of the company after Dave Whelan revealed in March that he was seriously considering making an offer for the remaining 60% of the company.

Wednesday: 

Ex dividend day has some juicy targets with Alliance & Leicester Plc 26.9 , Alliance Trust 40.5, IMI Plc 9.5, Provident Financial Plc 18.44, RMC Group Plc 21.8 leading the way For information on playing Ex Dividends click here Matalan release final figures with profits of 120m up from 107.6m the previous year. But there may be some dark corners here after 2 CEO's have departed during the last 2 years. Any signs of a slowdown in the retail sector could have a large impact on this fast growing and highly geared group. Clothing retailer Austin Reed has been identified as a possible takeover target as it prepares to issue preliminary results on Wednesday. This will be followed by the budget starting at 12:30 with most analysts predicting a sharp increase in Tax.

Thursday

Tesco will release its final results statement and it is expected that its strong sales growth will have continued with pre-tax profits of 1.4bn compared with 1.2bn for the previous year. This will be fuelled by its new overseas outlets which are expected to show fast growth. If the market is positive at the start of the week it might be worth watching for a long position ahead of results.

Last week many traders lost money due to the short term market volatility which made it hard to run stocks long enough to take a profit.

In the first part of next week I expect the markets to be held at the top of the trading range by hopes of a swift conclusion to the Iraq war. Many directly affected stocks rose on Friday such as British Airways despite the fears of passenger numbers and flights being reduced by increasing numbers of SARS victims in the Far East. On Friday I took out a small longer term short on the FTSE at 3815 with a wider than normal stop loss. My reasons are that I feel once the surge of optimism is over economic realities will once again return to drop the FTSE back down towards the support levels on the trend.

On this weeks chart I have compared the last 3 month chart on the FTSE to show the close correlation with the top 25 FTSE shares such as Barclays. This match is also the same for daytrading and emphasises the need to keep a close on the indices when holding Long or Short positions on the leading stocks. I find that this monitoring can give you a good guide to take profits or minimise losses by closing positions at the most advantageous times especially during the day. Many stocks such as in the construction sector do not track the indices in the same way and can be traded much more accurately by using technical analysis. They are slower moving so it is much easier using Level 2 to spot a change in sentiment.

Well that's it from me and now I look forward to reading your thoughts on the week ahead.

Good trading,

Sunday News 6th April 2003        

Soaring house prices could mean that more than two million households are liable for 40% inheritance tax .At present, only 25,000 households a year leave estates worth more than the 250,000.

European 10-year bonds fell for the third week in four on signs that the U.S. and U.K. are making progress in the war in Iraq, curbing demand for the safest government securities

Sunday Times:

Flu forces BA to cut Hong Kong services Sainsbury and InterContinental slash head office jobs Shell bonuses fuel shareholder anger BAE to win 1bn RAF jet contract S&N toasts 30-year deal with Nomura BT Group, Cable and Wireless Paul Durman: Shareholders need Verwaayen to ring the changes Auction looms for Austin Reed

FKI Share of the week Dixons Red tape holds back the next generation of giants Interview: Andrew Davidson: Dunstone dials into BT's market

Corporate Account: Paul Durman: ICI's O'Neill faces up to the C&W solution Directors' Deals: Spirent directors try to inspire some interest Sharewatch: Capital Radio Cable and Wireless Regulator acts on soft commission Sharewatch: Fitness First Aga Foodservice A share in the boardroom Royal Bank of Scotland/ Sunday Times Business Awards HBOS Price rises mask end of property boom Sharewatch: Standard Chartered  

Sunday Telegraph

Vodafone, Orange, mmO2 Whose mobile phone is it anyway? Royal and Sun Alliance Business Comment Bad news for Reuters

Sky wins battle for rolling news audience

Safeway This man will have them rolling in the aisles

GlaxoSmithKline Impotency drug must stand up to scrutiny

Scotland on Sunday

BAE avionics arm comes under US control BAE Systems Dyke falters in bid to break BSkyB grip Tranquillity returns to Glenmorangie as Gaelic name challenge fails MyTravel Group 'A' Directors lead share-buying spree

Fisher (James) With a fair wind blowing there are profits to be made on the high seas RBOS and Abbey to pass on troubled power firms Warm spring lifts spirits at M&S

BT: The ultimate survivor Knapp is left to dig cable out of a very deep hole Aberdeen Asset Management Fishwick may be forced to give evidence Tesco's tills continue to ring despite decline in consumer confidence Murray Financial's chief facing boardroom coup Bovis Homes sees profits more than double to 3.2m RBOS Scots firms tipped for war-weary investors

SMG Group Directors lead share-buying spree

Investor Chronicle

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Buy Firestone Diamonds at 28.5p - Codascisys at 255p - Millennium & Copthorne at 195p. GB Railways - buy/hold.Abbot - Cairn Energy - Premier - Tullow - Paladin Resources - Sterling Energy - Dana Petroleum  Expro International - Soco International - Fusion Oil and Gas - JKX Oil . Edinburgh Oil and Gas - speculative.Sell Leeds United at 3.75p.Thistle Mining -  Aga Foodservice - BP.