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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday 14th April (RB.)
Crocodile - 13 Apr 2003 14:14
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Gold
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S&P &Futures (Click for latest)
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Pre Market Futures (7:30) | |
| FTSE | +5 | ||
| TechMark | +1 | ||
| DAX | Unch | ||
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Hang Seng -142
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Nikkei -64
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DOW | +6 |
| S&P | +0.4 | ||
| Nasdaq | Unch | ||
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News Headlines:
Far East markets fall further on SARS worries mmO2 unit O2 Netherlands has been bought for 25 million euros by a Dutch investment group but will take a 1.4 billion pond charge on the unprofitable business. God & Bad news here, take care!Austin Reed Further takeover rumoursBritish Airways has ruled out selling its 17 percent stake in Quantas Reuters face criticism at its AGM on on Thursday over its CEO's pay packageBalfour Beatty & Costain may rise as they figure on a list of subcontractors for reconstruction work in Iraq.Granada and Carlton Communications may be hit after the Independent on Sunday said two major advertisers have called for competition authorities to block their merger.Anglo American declined to comment on a report in the Business newspaper that it planned a one billion euro bond.Boots is considering switching part of its pension scheme back into equities, backtracking on a move late in 2001 to put all its pension assets into bondsARM said it expected quarterly revenues to remain flat in the short term.Reckitt Benkiser (Awaiting Data) Awaiting data
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Crocodile - 13 Apr 2003 14:15 - 2 of 10
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All GMT |
United Kingdom F)inals (I)nterim |
United States (Click Flag) |
Europe & World |
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Mon 14th April Reports / Data |
Arm Holdings (Q1) 5.3m exp.Reckitt Benkiser Q1 Trading Statement 09.30 March Producer Price Index 18.00 March BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y |
Citigroup (Q1), IBM (Q1), Bank of America, Unisys 13.30 Feb business inventories m/m |
Saab (Q1) 08.00 Italy Feb industrial prod 08.00 Italy March final CPI |
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Tue 15th April
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Debenhams (I) 93.1m exp. British insurance Holdings (F)Safeway Q4 Trading statement Burberry H2 Trading Statement Invensys Trading StatementAssociated British Ports (AGM), BAT (AGM) Six Continents (SXC) De-merger. Terms are 1 Intercontinental Hotels (IHG) and 1 Mitchells & Butler (MAB) share for every 1 Six Continents share held. Canary Wharf Ejected from the FTSE 100, effective today.09.30 March RPI-X y/y 3.1% exp. |
Intel (Q1), Microsoft (Q1), Motorola (Q1)
12.45 BTM/UBSW sales 13.00 April empire state index 13.55 Redbook sales 14.15 March industrial production 14.15 March capacity utilisation |
Phillips (Q1) 07.45 France Feb industrial prod 10.00 Germany April ZEW index 10.00 Germany economic spring forecast |
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Wed 16th April
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British Vita (AGM), CI Traders (F), Clinton Cards (F), Associated British Foods (I) 467m exp. Invensys Trading StatementGUS H2 Trading Statement, Reuters Trading StatementLloyds TSB (AGM)09.30 February Average Earnings 3 Months 09.30 March Unemployment |
AMD, Apple, Coca Cola, Akzo Nobel, Alcan, Ford, MGM, 13.30 March CPI 13.30 March housing starts
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AMD (Q1), Apple Computer (Q1), Coca-Cola (Q1) 11.00 EMU final March CPI 11.00 EMU Feb industrial prod |
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Ex Dividend: BAE Systems (5.5), Excel (15.3), Forth Ports (22), Friends Provident (4.8), Greggs (49), Hanson (10.85), Highway Insurance (1.68), Hiscox (2.4), James Fisher (3.74), James Halstead (5.1), LogicaCMG (3), Management Consulting (0.5), National Express (16.4), Nestor Healthcare (6.14), Old Mutual (3.1), Ottakars (2.55), St Ives Group (5), Secure Trust Banking (20), Smith & Nephew (3), Spirax Sarco Engineering (13.5), Tesco (4.33), Travis Perkins (13.4) |
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Thu 17th April |
Prudential Q2 New Business WH Smith (I) 120m exp.Avis Europe (AGM), Reuters (AGM), Rio Tinto (AGM) 00.30 March RICS housing market index |
Honeywell (Q1), Colgate, Delta Airlines, Double Witching Day 13.30 Initial jobless claims w/e 12/4 17.00 April Philadelphia Fed index |
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Fri 18th April |
Easter Holiday UK, Europe & the US |
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| Provisional Calendar For The Following Week 21st - 25th April | |||
| Mon 21st April |
3M |
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| Tue 22nd April |
Cordiant Comms March prov M4/M4 lending (0930) March CML mortgage (0930) March BBA/BSA lending figures (0930) BCC quarterly economic survey (1100) |
ebay | |
| Wed 23rd April |
Ferraris Group Punch Tavern AGM, Croda, Flomerics, Roxboro , Royal Dutch, Schroders March PSNCR (0930) BoE MPC minutes (0930) |
AOL, Dupont, Kodak, Lucent, Xerox | |
| Aggreko 3.35, Amersham 5.15, Bovis Homes Group 9.4, Cadbury Schweppes 8.0, Hays 1.75, Informa Group 4.94, Johnston Press 3.6 Murray International Trust 5.95, Rolls-Royce 5, Slough Estates 8.55, WM Morrison 2.25, Waste Recycling Group 3.1 | |||
| Thur 24th April |
Allied Domecq (I) DFS Furniture Company (I) March prov M4/M4 lending (0930 ) March CML mortgage (0930 ) March BBA lending figures (0930) March BSA lending figures (0930) BCC quarterly economic survey (1100) |
Amazon, MGM, Nortel | |
| Fri 25th April |
P&O Princess(I), Regus (Q4) Autonomy (Q1) WPP Group (Q1) WPP Group (Trading Statement) AGMs Alliance Trust , Anglo American Pearson |
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Trading Thoughts Sunday 13th April
It was good to meet old friends and new ones at the Heathrow Seminar on Saturday and especially nice to meet Mr Euro in person after many years of chatting on ESI, ADVFN and AM. A highlight on the day was the 15 minute talk by Tom Hougaard from City Index. But In that short time he took most of us by surprise with his prediction that the DOW Jones would close above 10,000 by the first week in June before falling back. I have great respect for Tom & his predictions but I believe a 20 % rise from its current 8203 is a little optimistic. Looking at the chart above we can see how closely the FTSE and Dow are linked but also the divergence between the index's over that last 2 years with the FTSE falling an extra 20% in that time. If the the DOW does rally the FTSE (or the DAX) might be the better long term play with the chance of also closing the spread. I am also quite bullish on the market on the short term but we do have have the start of the reporting season ahead and many analysts are predicting some gloomy results. Most of the buying recently has been on defensive's rather than technology stocks so I may place one of my smaller long positions in that sector. One share I am looking at is Sage which I consider to be one of the safer tech shares. As a bear at heart I still expect the markets to return to the long term downtrends after any rally! Next week again we have the retail sector providing most of the market interest on a very quiet week for UK results.Monday Household products group Reckitt Benckiser should reveal good results with further progress carried forward into the first quarter of this year. ARM gave a cautious outlook in January when it reported its results for the year to December 31 2002, saying revenues would remain 'flattish' for the foreseeable future. Tuesday Debenhams reports interim results are not expected to have much progress on its small than expected 2.8% rise announced in January and profits only 1m ahead of last year. Safeway in todays papers are expected to report a large drop in sales and this could affect the bids offered by the companies interested in buying the supermarket chain. Short? In the states the technology sector should be volatile with results from Intel (Q1), Microsoft (Q1), Motorola (Q1)Wednesday GUS (Argos and Homebase) trading statement on Wednesday should show that Argos may have done better than the rest of the retail sector over the period. Homebase which was acquired by GUS at the end of 2002 update will be delayed due to the later timing of the busy Easter season this year. Invensys issue a trading statement after its last profit warning. The current analysts' consensus is for pre-tax profits of 5.8m in the quarter compared with 15.7m last year. Ex dividends of interest are BAE at 5.5p (currently 112p), Hanson 10.85p (320p), Logica 3p (90.75p), National Express 16.4p (469p) Thursday: Prudential release new business figures Looking forwards to your thoughts on that 10,000 DOW prediction. Personally for a bit of fun I would be willing to wager Tom 100 that it doesn't! David |
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David@FTSEDOW.COM www.FTSEDOW.com All the above comments are purely a personal opinion and no investment advice is intended. Please do your own research. |
Crocodile - 13 Apr 2003 14:15 - 3 of 10
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Sunday News 13th April 2003 The U.S. will use today's meeting of the Group of Seven industrial nations to lobby for help rebuilding Iraq, an effort that's already meeting resistance from Europe and the World Bank. European stocks recorded a second week of gains, led by Allianz AG and Munich Re, amid optimism the insurers will raise funds to replace reserves eroded by falling stock markets. French Consumer Prices Rise More Than Expected; Inflation at 7-Year High Last years increases in taxation are set to start this week and will add further pressure on to small business. The most punishing tax increase is the extra 1% on NI contributions. This will collectively cost employees and employers 8 billion this year. |
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RBOS, HSBC,BARC,HBOS UKs big banks failing small business sector Burberry keen to lock in Bravo for the long term United Business Media NFO set for break-up Reuters under fire over Glocers payment for failure deal Balfour Beatty and Costain short-listed for Iraq UKs big banks failing small business sector Barclay twins in talks with GUS to merge mail-order businesses GUS Capita chosen as our Company of the Year How I Made It: Chris ODonnell CEO Smith & Nephew Sharewatch: ICI, S&N in catch-22 Amec, Balfour Beatty, Rolls Royce After the war: the battle to rebuild |
Capita Group Rod Aldridge's working day ParthusCeva Testing time ahead as firm goes west Agenda: William Lewis: Reuters ground control to Major Tom: time is up Capita Group Interview: Andrew Davidson: Unstoppable rise of a serial organiser A Share in the Boardroom: Wilmington Group Directors' Deals: Enterprising directors sell shares worth 11.9m Selfridges bid paves way for a shake-out Media News Billboard: Cadbury shells out for egg ads BAY Airlines ground flights as war and Sars biteBabcock International, Enodis, Xstrata Chaucer Holdings, National Express, Sage Group |
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| With 70% of its business in gas, energy group BG has been insulated from wild fluctuation in oil prices. Britain is also expected to become a net* importer of gas in the next three years and BG will be well placed to take advantage of the demand. Approval for its Egyptian liquid natural gas (LNG) project has prompted some analysts to re-rate shares, which at 253 1/2p are a buy. | ||||||||
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National Grid to reconnect Iraq Scottish and Southern Energy Transco SSE in 1.2bn swoop for Midlands Reuters Group Protest over executive pay Celltech buys half of OGS Barclays: Protest over executive pay Celltech buys half of Oxford Glycosciences Shoppers desert Safeway British Airways Farewell to the supersonic network |
Six Continents Boards hit the jackpot Business profile Matalan Leeds United The new mafia National Grid Transco Don't bank on a post-Iraq rebound of the economy City Comment Marconi Austin Reed Keeping it in the family Great Portland Estates, Interior Services, Mentmore, Sainsbury, BSS Group, Dana Petroleum, Marks & Spencer Group |
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| Shares in diagnostics and healthcare group Amersham gave performed poorly in recent months but offer long-term potential. The success of an ambitious restructuring of its drug discovery systems business is crucial with analysts divided on the prospects for success. But Amersham has good long-term prospects and in spite of immediate uncertainties now is not the moment to sell. (412p). Time to get back in to Irish-based exploration stock Tertiary Minerals. Shares which rose from 14 1/2p in August 2001 to 28p the following February - after a major industrial metals discovery - are now at 9 3/4p. But they could be in for a good run over the next few months as it begins drilling on a platinum prospect in Norway. The central London market for commercial office fit-outs has fallen away. But fit-out and construction company Interior has a stable forward order book with regional work and new build contract helping to compensate. With a resilient business model and its dividend* expected to rise, shares - now at 1999 levels at 122 1/2p - should recover strongly when trading improves. Shares in airports operator TBI have been volatile in recent years but an analysts' visit last week to four of its airports - at Luton, Belfast, Cardiff and Stockholm - prompted a number of buy recommendations. The analysts noted that while major airports are suffering the effects of war and Sars, TBI's smaller sites are still growing. At 45p, shares are worth buying. Shares in biotechnology company Xenova have fallen sharply since it revealed in February that it had been told to stop recruitment for the final stage of trials of Tariquidar. An independent monitoring board will publish an interim analysis in June and shares, now just 11 1/4p, should be be held. | ||||||||
| Observer | Bid uncertainty takes toll on Safeway trading Pearson in UK schools revolution ICI acts to scale back ousted chief's payoff Reuters boss faces 'fat cat' row at AGM |
Tesco Every little helps Leahy tick HSBC But we're not out of the woods yet War-weary Trinity Mirror needs new marching orders |
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| Independent | Carlton-Granada deal under attack Jarvis slammed over rail maintenance | Bid battle costs Safeway sales | ||||||
| Bloomsbury - the publisher which discovered the Harry Potter phenomenon - has seen its shares rocket since 1999 to reach last week's close of 730p. The price reflects the potential for growth with more Potter books expected. While there isn't too much Potter hype at the moment just wait until later on this year. Ahead of the next Potter launch the risk looks good enough to take a punt. | ||||||||
| Edinburgh Fund Managers cash waived Global vision for Stagecoach comes off rails Sigma sees Fife dream put on hold due to 'souring' of the market Royal Bank of Scotland Moody's dubious honour a mixed result BAA New Heathrow terminal will get off the ground at Rosyth Dawson chief faces shareholders' wrath for 29% pay rise as cashmere firm's losses double |
HBOS launches joint venture Royal Bank under fire over executive terms J Beattie Media key executive quits role in Glasgow office Havelock bonus Find another chemical ally as ICI paints over cracks in its operations Flourishing Dobbies makes money while the sun shines |
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| Express | Mining group Anglo American's acquisitions last year have paved the way for the year ahead. Diversification into areas such as pulp and paper in Russia should provide earnings potential this year. Precious metals remain firm helped by worries over the global economic and political climate. Shares are worth buying at 929 1/2p. | |||||||
| Buy: - Man Group (EMG) at 969p - Homestyle (HME) at 109p - Genus (GNS) at 153p - First Quantum (FQM) at 205p - Tolent (TLT) at 53p. Carrs Milling (CRM) - Northern Rock (NRK) - Persimmon (PSN) - Merrydown (MYW). JJB Sports (JJB) - Cluff Mining (CLU) - Alizyme (AZM) - Mears (MER) - Next Fifteen Communications (NFC).Sell: - Celltech (CTH) at 300p. - Bespak (BPK). - London Town (LTW). | ||||||||
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Buy Babcock International (BAB) at 91p - Caffe Nero (CFN) at 23p. Buy/Hold Jacques Vert (JQV).Sell P&O Princess Cruises (POC)/ Havelock Europa (HVE). Features Claims People (CLM) - Hemscott (HEM) - Havelock Europa (HVE) - Compass Group (CPG). Amstrad (AMT) - Man Group (EMG) - Biocompatibles (BII) - Yule Catto (YULC) - Spirax-Sarco (SPX) - Titon Holdings (TON) - Stanley Gibbons (SGI) - Davis Service (DVSG) - Devro (DVO) - iTouch (ITU) - Go-Ahead Group (GOG) - Alexon (AXN) - French Connection (FCCN) - Next (NXT). |
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little woman
- 13 Apr 2003 14:52
- 4 of 10
I note you are looking at Sage. I must admit personally don't like thier products, but then I've never found many accounting pacages particulary "idiot proof" dispite thier claims!
With all employers requiring to file electronically eventually (above 250 employees by 19 May 2005, 50-249 by 2006 and less than 50 by 2010), Sage as one of the best know suppliers of already IR approved software for efiling should clean up and carry on doing very well especially as everyone will have to pay for the annual updates, because the paperwork seems to change every year as the Govt keep changing the tax system!
There must be millions of 1-50 employee sizes companies that currently do it manually because investing in software is not worth the additional cost. With the govt giving each year 250 going down to 75 to start using efiling from next year it'll justify the extra cost. Maybe I take a look not just at Sages shares, but thier products again!
Pugugly - 13 Apr 2003 16:17 - 5 of 10
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/asia-pacific/newsid_2944000/2944345.stm
ok Fewer have died so far than die in France in a week on the roads, and we do not stop going to France for a motoring holiday, however there is something very alarming about a bug one cannot see and not know if one has caght for some 10 days (OK better than AIDS were it can be 6 months plus).
There have already been significant Global cancellation of conferences and travel. WHO is worried may now be endemic in China (i.e. got away into the population at large) and hence it may not be possible to contain it. HSBC are downgrading Far East GDP already as a result.
This could be a bigger problem for the world economy (imo) than either the bursting of the bubble, BenLardin, or even the 21 day war.
Any thoughts - probaly needs its own tread but would appreciate comments before starting one. Over to you all.
Crocodile - 13 Apr 2003 16:24 - 6 of 10
We do have a thread on SARS on the Traders room which I started some time back. It would be good to have one on here as well. I do agree with you it has the potential for being a huge problem. In Hong Kong they reckon it will already have knocked 1% off the growth forecasts for this year. Drop in tourism & retail mainly.
So please go ahead and lest have a SARS thread.
D.
Crocodile - 13 Apr 2003 16:24 - 7 of 10
Crocodile - 14 Apr 2003 07:38 - 8 of 10
Teddy Bear - 14 Apr 2003 07:43 - 9 of 10
teddy
Teddy Bear - 14 Apr 2003 07:43 - 10 of 10
teddy
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