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Mon 12th May

Reports / Data

Diploma (I), Robert Wiseman (F),

Centrica (AGM),

09.30 April Producer Price Index Input m/m 1.6% exp. 09.30 March Global Goods Trade -3.5bn exp. 18.00 April BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y

Vivendi Universal (Q1), Benetton (Q1)

Eurogroup Finance Ministers Meet Europe

Tue 13th May

British Sky Broadcasting (Q3) PBT 50m exp.

Topps Tiles (H2), Ultraframe (I)International Power (Q1) PBT 54.7m exp.

Abacus Group (I),  BG Group (Q1), Powderject Pharmaceutical (F)

Next Trading Statement

Slough Estates(AGM), Acambis (AGM),

Wal-Mart (Q1)

13.30 March Trade Including Services

Fiat (Q1)

ECOFIN Meeting Europe:

10.00 EMU German May ZEW Expectations Index 17.0 exp.

Wed 14th May

Galen Holdings (Q2), Randgold Resources (Q1 De Vere Group (I), Dimension Data (I), First Group (F),Gallaher (AGM), Interserve (AGM), National Express (AGM),

Royal & Sun Alliance (AGM), Abbot Group (AGM),

Bunzl (AGM), Carrillion (AGM)

09.30 March Average Earnings 3m y/y 2. 09.30 April Unemployment 3.1% exp. US:

Computer Associates (Q1)

13.30 April Import Prices 0.5% exp. 13.30 April Retail Sales +0.4% exp.

Lufthanser (Q1), Tiscalli (Q1), Ericsson (Q1)

Ex Dividend: Ask Central (0.5), Amec (6.6), BP (3.947), Chemring Group (4.25), Derwent Valley (7.35), Incepta Group (0.2), James Beattie (8.4), Lookers (7), Peterhouse Group (4),

Richmond Foods (0.5), Sage (0.555), Scottish Power (7.177), Selfridges (5.25), Severfield Rowe(8.75), Spectris (8.85), TT Electronics (6.36), Unilever (10.83)

Thu 15th May

BBOC Group (I) PBT 94m exp, Safeway (F) PBT 335m exp.

Lastminute.com (Q2), Viridian Group (F), 3I Group (F),

Avon Rubber (I), Bank of Ireland (F), Brown Group (F),

Capital Radio (I), London Stock Exchange (F)

Logica CMG (AGM), Chelsfield (AGM),

Eurotunnel (AGM), GKN (AGM), Hanson (AGM),

Inchcape (AGM), MFI Furniture (AGM), Rexam (AGM),

St James Place (AGM), United Business Media (AGM),

Weir Group (AGM), Balfour Beatty (AGM)

10.00 UK Bank of England Inflation Report

GDell Computer (Q1)

13.00 May Empire State Index 7.0 exp. 13.30 Initial Claims (w/e 10/5) 415k exp. 13.30 April PPI m/m 0.7% exp. 13.30 March Business Inventories +0.2% exp. 14.15 April Industrial Production 0.4% exp. 17.00 May Philly Fed 5.0 exp.

Deutsche Telekom (Q1), E.ON AG (Q1)

09.00 EMU ECB Monthly Report

Fri 16th May

Hilton Group Trading Statement Old Mutual (AGM) + Q1 Trading Statement Greggs (AGM), IMI (AGM), P&O (AGM) Marconi Plc Last day of trading prior to reconstruction.

13.30 April Consumer Price Index m/m 0.1% exp. 13.30 April Housing Starts 1740k exp. 14.45 May Preliminary Michigan Sentiment 86.0 exp.

Acrelor (Q1), Alliance (Q1)

G8 Finance Minister Meet Europe: 11.00 EMU April Final CPI y/y 2.1% exp.

Trading Thoughts Sunday 11th May

The big question is whether this rally has finally broken the 3 year downtrend. Most technical analysts would correctly caution that it is difficult to 'catch a falling knife' and statistically show how difficult it is to guess the end of a long-term trend. This new uptrend (in blue) is certainly very strong with a 25% rise from the lows of 3200 in mid March. This momentum may well prove to be difficult to stop in the short term especially in the absence of any negative geopolitical or financial news.

The FTSE crossed 4000 for a short time as we guessed it would last week and if the US markets continue to power forward I can not see this level remaining an insurmountable barrier. David Jones (Limpsfield Chartist) talking at the Manchester seminar on Saturday although a Bear like myself said he is looking for the next resistance levels of 4200 & 4500 if the current upward trend continues. This would move the tracker stocks such as the banks forward to new highs and Barclays would have values of approximately 435 with the FTSE at 4200 or 460 with the FTSE at 4500.

Before a strong rally finally breaks down it is often proceeded by an extended period of sideways trading. Therefore for my trading next week I will be looking for mainly long positions as I can see little downside potential,

Monday Retail Figures from the BRC are likely to confirm that sales are well down on 2002 but consumer spending may well have shown an upturn during the last few weeks.Tuesday Next is expected to report sluggish like-for-like sales when it updates the market. Although it has had some problems with its latest product lines I would not be surprised to see a more upbeat report than expected with growth boosted by the company's home shopping Directory business and new stores. Energy group BG releases first quarter results on Tuesday. It is expected to benefit from higher prices with analysts looking for a figure of between 156m and 178m. International Power's first quarter figures are expected to have been hit by weak wholesale electricity prices in the US. Recent rises in the share price have reflected confidence that it will meet full-year profit forecasts of around 173m compared with 255m in 2002. BSkyB will grab the headlines when it reports third quarter figures. This period is traditionally slower for Sky because fewer new subscribers choose to join up after the strong Christmas period however it is expected to be on track for its 7 million subscriber target. Price increases as it takes advantage of its near monopoly status should ensure increasing profitability.Wednesday Rail operator FirstGroup was disappointed last month when it was left if off a shortlist to run the new Greater Anglia franchise. Its profits however are expected to be at the top end of expectations between 155m and 160m. The Bank of England's quarterly inflation report on Wednesday may well be the most important piece of financial data for the week In the U.S we have the release of April retail sales on WednesdayThursday Safeway are predicted to report pre-tax profits at 335m, down from 355m last year. With the Competition Commission report into the proposed mergers not due until August, news of the takeover is unlikely to feature. In the U.S we have industrial production for April and the Producer Price Index on Thursday, and the Consumer Price Index. This may show that manufacturing activity is beginning to reverse its slowdown with low mortgage rates and falling energy prices increasing the purchasing power of the US consumerWishing you all the best for the week ahead

David

David@FTSEDOW.COM  www.FTSEDOW.com    All the above comments are purely a personal opinion and no investment advice is intended.  Please do your own research.