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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday 7th July (CBRY)
Crocodile - 06 Jul 2003 10:35
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S&P &Futures (Click for latest)
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Pre Market Futures (7:30) | |
| FTSE | +25 | ||
| TechMark | +3 | ||
| DAX | +35 | ||
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Hang Seng +-
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Nikkei +-
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DOW | +60 |
| S&P | -+6 | ||
| Nasdaq | +12 | ||
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News Headlines: US Futures sharply higher
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Crocodile - 06 Jul 2003 10:36 - 2 of 14
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Trading Thoughts Sunday 6th July (Crocodile) The quiet season continues with little news from FTSE 100 companies. Tuesday: Safeway, may release further news regarding the takeover situation at its AGM. The trading update is likely to show that sales have continued to face pressure and its like-for-like sales is expected to have slowed according to stockbroker Gerrard. Wednesday: Diageo could possibly release figures at the bottom end of analysts forecasts due to the slower consumption of its products in Europe, the Sars outbreak - which hit duty free sales in Asia - and poor trading in the US in the lead-up to the Iraq war. Reg Vardy car dealer is expected to say it is well on the road to achieving turnover of 2bn. It has stated its ambition to have 100 dealerships by April 2005. Following 11 acquisitions made since the start of this year, Vardy has 77 sites and turnover of around 1.4bn with expected profits of about 33m helped by strong new and used car sales Thursday: Stanley Leisure casino operator and THE UK's fourth biggest bookmaker is forecast to report annual pre-tax profits between 39m and 40m, against 37.5m last time. TD Waterhouse expects the figures to be flat because of a downgrade back in April due to unfavourable horseracing results and weaker demand in its casinos. In last weeks thoughts we went for an initial fall on the FTSE at the start of the week followed by a rally taking the market back above 4025. This was so very close but the index failed by 3.5 points to reach the target. Be warned that after a run of good calls I am likely to start a run of bad ones! So lets see what the charts can tell us. Looking at the top chart the FTSE has been in the 4000 - 4200 trading range for about 6 weeks. Certainly the 4000 support level is very strong and so is the 3 year downtrend resistance line clearly shown in chart 2. This would give us probably an up week with the FTSE between 4021 and 4190. If the 4000 support fails then a possible fall to the next support at 3450 However on the lower 5 year chart I have highlighted the July & August trading period with the pink vertical bars. There does seem to be a pattern with the FTSE falling in July followed by an upturn towards August. Based on this historic data, the fact the FTSE has more downside potential than up I will go for the outsider and call the market down for next week :-) However the 4000 support level could well hold and this combined with the fact that I have just lost my 17 week winning streak means it will probably do exactly the opposite! That's it, its off to France for me to do a little bit of trading but with lots & lots of R&R Wishing you all the best for the week ahead and as ever looking forward to your thoughts! David |
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David@FTSEDOW.COM www.FTSEDOW.com All the above comments are purely a personal opinion and no investment advice is intended. Please do your own research. |
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Financial Diary - (Crocodile)
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All Times GMT |
United Kingdom F)inals (I)nterim |
United States (Click Flag) |
Europe & World |
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Mon 7th July Reports / Data |
Jacques Vert (F), Mentmore (F), Mitie Group (F) EasyJet June Traffic Kingfisher Demerger Ex Date. Terms are 1 Kesa share for 1 Kingfisher Christian Salvesen AGM 09.30 May Indtrial Production 09.30 May Manufacturing Production 14.00 EU Parliament Economic Committee Meets CBI financial services survey June National Institute for Economic and Social Research monthly GDP estimate (1200 GMT) |
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Tue 8th
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Alphameric (I), Kensington Group (I)Kidde Trading Statement, Signet (AGM) Safeway AGM + Q1 Trading Statement Signet Group PLC AGM Vosper Thornycroft Holdings PLC AGM Albany AGM, DCC AGM |
Pepsi Bottling Co (Q2), ALCOA AA 0.25, Century Bancorp 20.00 May Consumer Credit $5bn exp. |
08.55 April German Unemployment Change 11k exp. 11.00 May German Preliminary Indtrial Output m/m 0.2% exp. |
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Wed 9th
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Reg Vardy (F), Big Food Group Q1 Trading Statement Diageo Trading Statement 3i Group AGM, Man Group AGM, ThGroup AGM Liontrt Asset Management AGM Murray Vct 4 AGM, Northern Petroleum AGM Christian Salvesen AGM09.30 May Non-EU Trade balance -1.5bn exp. Treasury chief economist Ed Balls speaks on economy to Merrill Lynch conference Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting |
Yahoo (Q2) 15.00 May Wholesale Inventories 0.2% exp. : |
Europe: SAAB (Q2) |
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Babcock International (1.85), Burtonwood Breweries (6.5), Charles Stanley (3.5), Dairy Crest (11.3), De La Rue (9.2), East Surrey Holdings (9.3), G(16.4), GWR Group (3.5), Glenmorangie A (14.8), Glenmorangie B (7.4), Heiton Group (EUR 0.082), Holidaybreak (6), Imperial Tobacco (12), Parkman Group (1.1), Pennon Group (26.5), Pillar Property (5.7), Renold (3), SABMiller (0.185), Tate & Lyle (12.8), Umeco (8.5), Xansa (2.16) |
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Thu 10th |
Low & Bonar (I), Stanley Leisure (F) Yell IPO. When Issue(range 250p 300p) EMAP (AGM), Carillion Trading Statement Wolseley Trading Statement 12.00 BOE Rate Announcement |
13.30 June Import Price Index m/m 0.5% exp. 13.30 Initial Jobless Claims (w/e 05/07) 420k exp. |
07.00 June German Final CPI 0.3% exp. : PepsiCo (Q2) 11.00 Q1 Revised GDP q/q 0.0% exp. 11.00 EU 2nd & 3rd Quarter GDP Forecasts 12.45 ECB Rate Announcement |
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Fri 11th |
Anite Group (F), Glotel (F) PHS (AGM), BAA June Traffic Cable and Wireless PLC AGM JJB Trading Statement, SIG Trading Statement |
General Electric Co (Q2) 13.30 June Producer Price Index 13.30 May Trade Balance |
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| Provisional Calendar For The Following Week | |||
| Mon 14th |
Interserve (I), Pace Micro Technology (F)June PPI (0830 GMT) BRC June retail sales monitor (1700 GMT) |
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| Tue 15th |
Glotel (F) British Airways AGM, Burberry Group AGM, Express Dairies AGM, Premier Oil AGM Great Portland Estates AGM, Oasis Healthcare AGM, Young & Co's Breweries AGM Burberry Trading Statement June RPI/HICP inflation report (0830) Merrill Lynch fund managers' survey (0930 |
8:00 NY Empire State Index 8:30 Retail Sales 8:30 Retail Sales ex-auto |
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| Wed 16th |
BT Group AGM, Flintstone Technologies AGM Johnson Matthey AGM, London Stock Exchange AGM Marks & Spencer AGM, British Energy, British Land (AGM) Property Acquisition & Management AGM June labor market report (0830 GMT) DMO announces results of inflation-indexed 2013 gilt auction |
8:30 Biness Inventories 8:30 Core CPI 8:30 CPI 9:15 Capacity Utilization 9:15 Indtrial Production | |
| Investec (28p), Lonmin (30p), Monks Investment Trust (0.65p), Shanks Group (3.8p) | |||
| Thur 17th |
Cadbury Schweppes (I) Misys PLC (F), Northern Rock (I) Aberforth Smaller Cos Trt (F), Bespak (F) Dairy Crest AGM, De La Rue AGM Detica AGM, Northern Foods AGM Renold AGM, Uniq AGM |
8:30 Building Permits 8:30 Hoing Starts 8:30 Initial Claims 12:00 Philadelphia Fed | |
| Fri 18th |
Cookson Group (I) London Merchant Securites (F) BAA PLC AGM Dairy Crest Group PLC AGM Caledonia Investments PLC AGM |
9:45 Michigan Sentiment | |
Crocodile - 06 Jul 2003 10:36 - 3 of 14
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Sunday News 29th June Reuters rose Friday after Morgan Stanley said there was scope for significant upgrades. Galen Weston looks ready for victory in the 600m takeover battle for Selfridges after rival Robert Tchenguiz pulled out of the bidding. Shares tumbled as the Iraqi property investor decided to retreat After the shock Chelsea football club deal by Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich, up to 20 companies from Russia are ready to float on the London stock market. FTSE 100 chief executives received an average pay rise of 11.5% last year, despite tumbling share prices (Times) |
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| Burberrys Bravo faces pay showdown Yell-ing for joy in flotation bonanza A Share in the Boardroom: Close Brothers Share of the week: Nestor Healthcare Capital Radio retunes for a future without Tarrant Enterprise Network: Tuning up to rock the world Progress Report: Everwhite Elans creditors demand $50m Rothwell battles market rumours over ICG buyout bid Builders warned over insolvency Isis track record to endanger EFM bid Homeowners set to borrow 50bn against house values Bid for Man United fails to kick off | Saudi prince gatecrashes Meridien rescue talks Banks use loan power to create electricity colossus Stelios to sell more of Easyjet Eurostar sparks Channel price war Cadbury acts on fat fears Investors pile in for 2bn Yell float Avivas Harvey named as shareholders guardian Fitness role for Lovering Sales soar as Center Parcs swings back India may snub BAE in 1bn Hawk deal Big Food acts to forestall fat attacks Argos whiz-kid to add oomph at WH Smith | |||||||
| Northern Foods,Uniq Geest is hungry for Prize Foo Selfridges Royal Bank Scotland debt-limit scuppered Tchenguiz bid US loses thirst for Cadbury drinks Amec At last! Eurostar to reach maximum speed in UK Geest is hungry for Prize Food Rothschild to advise on Canary Wharf BAE and Vosper bury the hatchet Incepta Group Stealthy but hefty 'earn-out' tax | Chelsea joins the Roman empire, The KGB can spot a gangster HMV's retro rocker EMI Musical mergers Active Value engineers buyout at Wembley Allied Domecq Bacardi profits hit by alcopop tax Geest is hungry for Prize Food Chelsea Village 'I'm no Napoleon' | |||||||
| Observer |
Chelsea Village The deal that made a Russian oligarch Carlton-Granada merger stymied by regulators BAE Systems Airbus leading Boeing in battle to land $2bn superjumbo order Safeway, WH Smith Who'll be the next fashion victim? Chelsea Village Oil fuels economic miracle |
Chelsea Village Bargain-hunters target Premiership clubs I Feel Good, Jack the dipper wins new chance to impress boys Hamleys, Debenhams, Who'll be the next fashion victim? Chelsea to kick off a whole new ball game | ||||||
| Independent | Electra Investment Trust 'Darth Vader' attacks 700m investment empire Allied Domecq The grape and the good: Allied's alcohol offensive British Land Shareholders in fresh call for British Land break-up Ranieri deserves to thank his lucky tsar Chelsea Village |
Eurostar revamps at 300km an hour From Siberia to the Shed - Chelsea's Russian takes route one to respectability Barclays Cooks its Goose British Energy Bhopal past hangs over BNFL chief |
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| Devro still skins the field Le Meridien wins RBS deal Royal Bank of Scotland Miller makes it on to Sainsbury short-list Scottish Value Trust Hearing Enhancement gets 306,000 aid Business in brief Abbey National Diageo aims to cut 50m transport bill in half Halladale to post 1.5m profit but worries persist over small market cap | Iomart wins contract for Newsquest web services Lloyds TSB Miller makes it on to Sainsbury short-list Thus Halladale to post 1.5m profit but worries persist over small market cap Cattles launches Scots car credit centres Trinity Mirror ponders Scots titles' future Aortech 25m target for Scots biomed fund | |||||||
| *Berkeley Group (BKL), Sell - Millennium & Copthorne (MLC), Sell - - Innovision (INN), Sell.Watermark (WMK), Buy - Tullow Oil (TLW), Buy - Conder (CDE), Buy Hardy Underwriting (HDU), Buy - Antisoma (ASM), Buy - McAlpine (MCA), Buy.Celtic Resources (CER), Good Value - Creston (CRE), Hold - A. | ||||||||
| BP (BP) - COE (COE) - HPD Exploration (HPD) - Bodyshop (BOS) - Jacques Vert (JQV) - Rank (RNK) and Acambis (ACM). Stocks to Watch: Brewin Dolphin (BRW) - Safeway (SFW) - Interserve (IRV) - Consolidated Minerals (CNM) - SHL (SHL) - Reuters (RTR) - Sterling Energy (SEY) - Trinity Mirror (TNI) - Warthog (WHOG) - Eidos (EID) - Thistle Mining (TMG). Leeds United (LUFC) - Symphony Plastic (SYM) - Just Car Clinics (JCR) - Landround (LDR).*Parkdean (PDH) - Giardino (GDO) - GX Networks (GXN). | ||||||||
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little woman
- 06 Jul 2003 11:51
- 4 of 14
A slightly busier week ahead.
It's what I call dividend season as the cash actually arrives! It actually started at the beginning of May, buildings up momentum over June & July, but carrying on until about November then with very little coming in until May again! There have been some excellent payments this year, with many shares paying out over 5% on the amount Invested. (or it would be if I held the shares long enough, but with many also now providing a small gain too, I've been selling too. Currently about 25% up since the end of March.
Da Bear - 06 Jul 2003 17:19 - 5 of 14
Basically these next three weeks are make or break time for the market in the US and ultimately that means European markets also, which have rallied from there March lows. Since the beginning of 2001 each time earnings season came around the recovery hopes kept getting put on the long finger, that is until March this year, when they decided that the recovery time was now. Well now we shall see what the mass of companies reporting over the 3 weeks ahead say of there second half prospects.
Stocks are way overpriced at current levels, how can a possible Bull market be launched from where we are now, on a price-earnings ratio of 33 for the S&P 500 Index. That's nearly twice as much as fair value. It would have to create history to kick start from where we are now.
Those sitting on the Boards of these companies who have the inside view of what is really happening cant sell quick enough. If these people have no confidence, then why should anyone else?
Commercial traders are Bearish with a vengeance; they have been busy selling while Joe Public is still buying. Take a look at the S+P 500 Commitments of Traders Report chart below and you will see that they bought before the Rally started, before small traders jumped on the band wagon, now they are calling a top and shorting yet again long before the CNBC disciple buying public have smelt the coffee. Take a look at the NASDAQ 100 chart and see how they are now even more bearish than they were in 2001.
http://www.vtoreport.com/sentiment/cot.htm
Any Investors out there have to get away from the buy-and-hold mindset. This is going to be a trading market. I would really like to see a retest of the recent highs and the .618% #s of 1019/20 on SPX and 9350 area on the DOW or 9474 if the CNBC machine with there never ending parade of Bullish guests can suck in some more little guys. But when all is said and done Im of the belief that 3 weeks is the Maximum till this Bear market rally is buried, these 3 weeks should be quite choppy as is typical topping out activity, the usual buy the dip Bull mode is deeply engrained.
Da Bear - 07 Jul 2003 15:14 - 6 of 14
Da Bear - 07 Jul 2003 15:27 - 7 of 14
Da Bear - 07 Jul 2003 15:32 - 8 of 14
Da Bear - 07 Jul 2003 18:24 - 9 of 14
Da Bear - 07 Jul 2003 18:32 - 10 of 14
NEW YORK, July 7 (Reuters) - Investors withdrew a net $595 million from U.S. stock markets in the week ended July 4, UBS reported on Monday, pushing the four-week moving average of UBS-tracked equity flows to the lowest level since March 1999.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030707/markets_forex_ubs_1.html
Da Bear - 07 Jul 2003 18:36 - 11 of 14
Jules
- 07 Jul 2003 19:37
- 12 of 14
Just upgrade
we're lots of fun on the traders room,same thread:-))
Da Bear - 07 Jul 2003 21:10 - 13 of 14
jgp212
- 07 Jul 2003 21:33
- 14 of 14
Enjoy the ride!!
:-)
Jeff
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