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Traders Thread - Thursday 18th September (NXT)     

Crocodile - 17 Sep 2003 22:10

draw?period=1D&action=draw&startDate=10% draw?period=1D&action=draw&startDate=10%

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fpDJIA.gqplus?511 marketwatch-ss.img?symb=SP500 fpNASDAQ.gqplus?183

S&P Futures

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Nikkei +43

Chart

Hang Seng -117

Chart

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7:30am Futures

FTSE -5 Techmark -3 DAX +2 Dow +4 S&P +0.8 Nasdaq +3
 News Headlines:

U.S. stocks dipped following weak third-quarter forecasts from DuPont and some retailers. Technology stocks fell back with some profit taking after recent big gains.

Next reported first-half profit above analysts' consensus forecast but said like-for-like retail sales since August 3 were almost flat on last year. Profit for the six months to July was 123.2 million pounds up from 115.8 million last year and compared to an analyst consensus forecast of 118 million pounds.

WH Smith retreated from the United States with a deal to sell its loss-making hotels and airports businesses for 49 million pounds. They said the disposals would be significantly earnings enhancing

Premier Oil which this month completed a long-awaited $670 million asset swap, reported higher first-half profits helped by surging oil and gas prices and said it was upbeat over its prospects. Operating profit for the six months rose 54 percent from a year ago to 81.1 million pounds with net profit after tax more than double from a year ago to 44 million pounds.

Alvis military vehicle maker posted higher half-year profits as international instability increased demand for light strategic transport that can handle a variety of terrains. Profits in the six months were 8.8 million pounds up from 7.9 million pounds posted a year ago.

Wm Morrison the UK's fifth largest food retailer reported interim profits in line with forecasts up 10.2 percent to 126.2 million pounds on turnover up 14.9 percent. That compared with analysts' forecasts of 125-130 million pounds. Sales growth in the five weeks to September 14 accelerated to be up 9.6 percent, better than market leader Tesco's TSCO.L half-year growth rate, revealed earlier this week. No news so ar on the Safeway bid

Cox Insurance the UK's largest motorcycle insurer said first-half operating profit before tax rose to 28.3 million pounds from 9.1 million in the same period last year.

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United Kingdom  (F)inals (I)nterim 

usf.gifUnited States  (GMT)

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Europe & World (GMT)

Thu 18th Sep

Carnival Q3 PBT US$690m exp.Next (I) PBT 116m exp. WM Morrison (I) PBT 127.5m exp. Alvis (I), Antisoma (F), Chime Communications (I), Premier Oil (I), Venture Production (I)BPB Trading Statement

09.30 Aug Retail Sales m/m 0.1% exp. 09.30 Aug Preliminary M4 Money Supply y/y 7.3% 09.30 Aug PSNCR 2.85bn exp. 09.30 Aug CML, BBA & BSA Mortgage Lending

Nike (Q2), Palm Inc (Q2) 13.30 Initial Jobless Claims (w/e 13/09) 410k exp. 15.00 Aug Leading Indicators 0.4% exp. 17.00 Sep Philly Fed 18.0 exp. 19.00 Minutes of Aug 12th FOMC Meeting

 

Good Trading!      david@FTSEDOW.com     www.FTSEDOW.com Bloomberg TV

Pivot Calculator

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ThePlayboy - 18 Sep 2003 07:05 - 2 of 8

THU FTSE PP

R2 4341.8
R1 4317.4
PP 4305
S1 4280.8
S2 4268.6

Close above Wed pp after loosing 3pts in the auction to the low of the day, failure at Wed R2 (29) and completing my tgt for the week (25)! Tom H looking for Max upside at 9850 should equate to 4450 ish! Sept R2 is 4406 which is my max upside for the month, can easliy see 9650 achievable, ftse Divergence has increased by .3% so may be loosing heart with this rally atm, all imho!

ThePlayboy - 18 Sep 2003 07:05 - 3 of 8

Updated 9/17 for Thursday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 9/18
UP Above 9,600
DN Below 9,500

Resistance
Dow pulls back off resistance.

From prior commentary, "...The upside break from the range will likely initiate another major move up within the sharp uptrend, seen in the Daily Chart. But first, we want to see if the index can hold on to today's gain and form a continuation pattern..."
The Dow pushed higher at the Open today, but formed a double-top at 9,595, which led to a push lower to the Close, seen in the 15 Minute Chart. The index lost 22 pionts for the session, but was able to hold on to much of yesterday's gains.

The index halted today's upmove right at the major 9,600 resistance level, seen in the 60 Minute Chart. This level makes it quite clear that the index must break through it in order to progress in the current major uptrend. Watch this level tomorrow.

Overall, we will likely see further strength within the major uptrend unless a downside break of the long term lower trend line occurs. A downside break of the line at 9,450, seen in the Daily and 60 Minute Charts, will likely spark a significant retracement.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow has formed a tight consolidation at the lows of the 5 Minute Chart from 9,540 to 9,563. Watch for a break from this range to indicate direction tomorrow morning.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we are still Long the Dow from 9,512 and will move our stops up to 9,525 for tomorrow's market. Stay Long above 9,600, and look for Shorts below 9,500, with 10 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P each mirrored the Dow today, as each showed strength at the Open followed by a move lower due to the formation of a double-top. Each index is now sitting right at key resistance. *

Summary

The Dow was able to hold on to much of yesterday's gains, but now is at major resistance level at 9,600. An upside break through this level will indicate further upside movement, while a push lower off it will likely bring the index back down toward the major lower trend line in the Daily Chart.


Crocodile - 18 Sep 2003 07:40 - 4 of 8

Morning all

Druid2 - 18 Sep 2003 08:05 - 5 of 8

Morning all. Thanks Croc & TP.

little woman - 18 Sep 2003 08:16 - 6 of 8

Morning all

Nice to see CS. up this morning! (And now I've mentioned it, watch it drop!)

little woman - 18 Sep 2003 09:05 - 7 of 8

See what I mean, up 1.5p when I posted, went to up 2p and now heading back down, as currently on up .75p and I expect it to end up down overall!

Crocodile - 18 Sep 2003 10:51 - 8 of 8

Short Next from early on
And long Morrison
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