Lloyds TSB said on Monday that its plan to concentrate on UK financial services will deliver improved performance by the second half of 2004. It said it is aiming for a minimum total capital ratio of 9 percent and that it does not need to sell businesses to meet that goal.

Royal Bank of Scotland said it had agreed to buy Irish rival First Active Plc FTA.I for 887 million euros. The 6.2 euro per share offer for First Active, which runs 173 branches in the Republic of Ireland and 90 branches in Northern Ireland, is a 33 percent premium to Friday's closing price.

Scottish and Newcastle said it had sold its UK pubs to the private-equity backed Spirit Amber group for 2.51 billion pounds.

Scottish & Southern Energy said it had agreed to buy out its partners in Medway Power Ltd for 89.8 million pounds in cash.

Smiths Group British aerospace said it had been picked by Lockheed Martin Aeronautics to supply cable assemblies in a contract potentially worth over $500 million. The contract marks an increase to the firm's work for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter programme.

United Kingdom Calendar (F)inals (I)nterim	United States  (GMT)	Europe & World (GMT)
Mon 6th Oct Reporting Company Updates Financial Data HIT Entertainment (F) PBT 39.5m exp.Lloyds TSB Strategy Update 10.30 UK Sep NTC, Deloitte &REC Report on Jobs		11.00 EMU July Retail Trade m/m 0.5%
Good Trading!      david@FTSEDOW.com     www.FTSEDOW.com Pivot Calculator

HIT Entertainment (F) PBT 39.5m exp.Lloyds TSB Strategy Update

10.30 UK Sep NTC, Deloitte &REC Report on Jobs

Matalan (I) PBT 44m exp.

EeasyJet Sep Traffic Figures Marks & Spencer Trading Statement

09.30 UK Aug Industrial Production m/m 0.2% exp. US: 09.30 UK Aug Manufacturing Production m/m 0.2% exp. 09.30 UK BOE Publishes Q2 Mortgage Equity Figures

Apollo Group (Q3), Pepsi Co (Q3)

20.00 US Aug Consumer Credit $6.0bn exp.

11.00 EMU Aug Preliminary German BBK Factory Orders m/m 0.1% exp.

Incepta (I), JJB Sports (I)

Royal & Sun Alliance (RSA). Rights GNI Deadline for Instruction

Big Food Group Trading Statement Carphone Warehouse Trading Statement Mothercare Trading Statement

Genetech (Q3), Yahoo (Q3)

15.00 US Aug Wholesale Inventories 0.1% exp

Saab AB (Q3)

Ex Dividend: ASK Central (0.4), Abbot Group (1.4), Alfred McAlpine (4.5), Alpha Airports (1), Alumasc Group (6.3), Brammer (1.5), CD Bramall (3.64), CI Traders (1.25), Clinton Cards (1.8), Close Brothers (17), Domestic & General (14.16), Forth Ports (12.1), Fulmar (1.8),Galliford Try (1), Games Workshop (12.5), House of Fraser (1.7), Informa Group (2.66), Intermediate Capital (10.5), International Energy (3.025),Irish Life & Permanent (EUR 0.15), London Security (3), Manchester United (spec cash 1.5), Manchester United (1.83), Mayflower Group (0.5),Meggitt (2.4), Minerva (2.1), Morrison WM (0.55), Personal Group (2), Rexam (7.3), Sevefield-Rowe (6.25), Signet Group (0.341), Swan Hill Group (1.75), Tibbett & Britten (8.2), Ultimate Leisure (4.34), White Young Green (3.35), Wilmington Group (1.7), Wilson Bowden (7.5)

BAA Sep Traffic Figures DFS Furniture Group (F) PBT 56.4m exp. Austin Reed (I), Brown & Jackson (I), John David Group (I)

00.01 UK Sep BRC Shop Price Index

09.30 UK Aug World Trade Balance of Payments -3.5bn exp. 09.30 UK Aug New Construction Orders

12.00 UK BOE Rate Announcement

Marriot (Q3), Abbott Labs (Q3)

13.30 US Sep Import Price Index m/m 0.3% exp. 13.30 US Initial Jobless Claims (w/e 4/10) 395k exp.

Carrefour (Q3)

07.00 EMU Aug German Trade Balance E11.2bn exp 07.00 EMU Sep German Final CPI m/m

11.00 EMU Revised 2nd Quarter GDP q/q 0.1% exp. 11.00 EMU Aug German Preliminary Industrial Production m/m 0.9% exp. 11.00 EMU European Commission Publishes 3rd & 4th Quarter GDP Forecast

J Sainsbury Q2 Sales Boots Trading Statement

General Electric (Q3)

13.30 US Sep Producer Price Index m/m flat exp. 13.30 US Aug Trade Balance -$41.0bn exp.

07.00 EMU Sep German Wholesale Price Index m/m 0.1% exp. US: 11.00 EMU 2nd Quarter Labour Costs q/q

Bizspace (I), Inventive Leisure (F)

BRC Retail Sales Monitor September PPI September

Bellway (F), Burberry Group (I), Debenhams (F), St Ives (F), )Fibernet Group (F) MJ Gleeson (F), James R Knowles (F) HICP September RPI M/M September

Legal and General Group Q3 new business figures GUS interim trading statement

United Kingdom Claimant Count September

Ex Dividend: BAE (3.7), Derwent Valley Holdings (3.3), Friends Provident (2.5), Johnston Press (2,0) Murray International Trust (3.45), Old Mutual (1.7), Rolls-Royce Group (3.18) Smiths Group (17.25), Spectris (4.05), Spirax-Sarco Engineering (6.0), WPP Group (2.08)

N Brown Group (I), Prudential (Q3), Smith WH (F)

Harvey Nash Group Oct 17 (I)

Building Permits Sep Housing Starts Sep Mich Sentiment-Prel.

Several retailers report this week including M&S, Matalan and JJB Sports. The Bank of England show why they are paid so highly when the announce interest rates on Thursdays

MondayHIT Entertainment the owner of Thomas the Tank Engine announce annual figures. In March, HIT said trading was in line with market forecasts, which suggests that it could report a pre-tax profit of 40m on sales of around 170m. Tuesday Manufacturing output numbers on Tuesday should help to confirm that the sector is on a recovery pathMarks & Spencer may disappoint the city when they reveal that high street sales have stalled instead of the expected 2.5% increase. Poor performances from homewares, childrenswear and womenswear autumn ranges.will be supported by a strong performance from food, boosted by the hot weather and improved ranges. Rival fashion retailers claim they have gained market share at the expense of M&S in recent weeks Matalan reports interims after it warned of a poor start to its new financial year. The company said like-for-like sales declined 7.5%, though total sales rose 6.2% to 241m in the thirteen weeks to 31 May. Matalan admitted that it brought out the wrong ranges for the spring and summer seasons, and that its customers had insufficient choice.easyJet provide traffic figures after increasing 17% in August, with the load factor inching higher from 87.2% to 88.1%.

WednesdayCarphone Warehouse Just how well mobile phone retailer has fared in attempts to take on BT in the fixed-line market with its Talktalk operation will become clearer in a trading update this week. Mobile phone sales have been performing very well.JJB Sports reports interims and again may disappoint. It has already admitted that it has been forced to reduce prices to clear old stock, which has depressed gross margins. The other factor is the growing chain of French Sports hypermarkets called Decatholon in the UK. In France almost have the monopoly there with its huge choice plus its own ranges of high quality and low cost own brands. ThursdayThe UK's Bank of England takes centre stage with 95% of analysts saying they expect interest rates to remain on hold BAA airport operator, will be reporting traffic figures for September after the busiest month ever in August when it handled 13.7m passengers.On a quiet week for U.S. indicators weekly jobless claims will give an indicator on the health of the economy.

Friday

Sainsbury shares may slump when it reports flat growth from existing stores and admits that it has missed out on recent bumper summer sales and is quickly falling behind all of its rivals.Boots' analysts predict sales figures will be "quite reasonable". Yet concerns about margin remain and competition is selling. Glad I am not long on them!

Thoughts

Last week I said I would not be surprised if the FTSE retested the 3year downtrend line which in fact it did try to do. Its also interesting to note from the chart above that the Dow Jones is also having difficulty breaking through its matching 3 year downtrend as well. Perhaps this is partly due to the realisation that everything in the garden is not suddenly rosy and the world economic problems have not really disappeared. The US deficit is still growing at an alarming rate and there are renewed fears that  the U.S dollar could fall substantially in order to correct the imbalances in the U.S. economy and take equities with it.

The ongoing financial & human costs of maintaining the US grip on the Iraqi oil feeds is enormous and the rest of the world are not that keen on helping them out.  Accept that is for its pals in the UK who will of course have to increase taxation and thereby slow down economic growth to pay for its own ongoing involvement.

Also today's attack by the Israeli government on a training camp deep inside Syria shows how quickly problems can escalate.

So after getting that of my chest its back to the markets and a look at the current pivotal point on the markets. That downtrend line is going to be difficult to crack, if it does the clear skies up to 10k on the DOW and 4500 on the FTSE.  However if it fails once again which I think it might the bears may well decide they are back in control and we could see a fast 10% drop on the FTSE back into the 3800's

On the gloomy note I wish you all a pleasant Sunday and as always I look forward to your thoughts and comments.

David (Crocodile)

David@FTSEDOW.COM  www.FTSEDOW.com    All the above comments are purely a personal opinion and no investment advice is intended.  Please do your own research.

Headlines

Prospect of a bidding war for B&Q will strengthen this week when Kingfisher meet a delegation from Lowe's, the world's second-biggest home improvement retailer.

Rolls-Royce Faces Strike Threat over a pensions dispute which the firm says will total 80 million a year. Powergen to buy Midlands Electricity in a deal valued at up to 1.2 billion pounds A warning to the UK housing market that prices could be set to crash 20 per cent over the next 18 months.

Aberdeen AssetNVM to exit after 36m merger Norish chief gets warming pay-off Diageo and Eircom offer 36m in advertising deals Granada,Carlton Green and Allen to go in shake-up at merged ITV Powergen to buy Midlands Scottish and Newcastle Karen Jones to become pub superwoman in 2.45bn deal British Airways slashes its short-haul fleet at Gatwick Irish Business Digest Ryanair Holdings Special Report - BP: from hate to love in Russia Waterford Wedgwood bond will need super-high premium Barrett to bow out of Barclays chairman battle Irish Business Digest Alltracel Pharmaceuticals Edinburgh Fund Managers NVM to exit after 36m merger New Look Group Singhs New Look bid unravels Arnotts and top developer to get comfy at Indos Abbey Street HQ Petrel Resources seeking 30m to develop oil licences in Iraq Emap plans new lads mag

Granada Time to adjust your set for the new-look ITV Serco Vital Statistics

Sharewatch: Game Group HBOS Building societies offer 7% interest Crunch time for Barclays over new chief Serco pops its head above the parapet Judgment Day: Should you be buying shares in Sanctuary? Indigo Vision Video group losses BP Siberias hell factories fuel energy empire Business Digest Debenhams British Airways Endgame looms for airlines Tarrants exit from Capital makes waves in radio land Irish Agenda: OReillys bond is his word for beleaguered Wedgwood Carlton Time to adjust your set for the new-look ITV Serco Kevin Beeston's working day Sharewatch: Royal & Sun Alliance Domestic and General Directors' Deals: Warranties boss guarantees his future British Airways Open skies is the key to more deals Man Utd chief rules takeover talk offside Petrel Resources Focus: Oilfields of dreams  

Slump: poor sales at Marks spark fears for the high street Vodafone Mobile networks launch pre-pay price war Manchester United in row with house broker Merrill Lynch Sainsbury set to reveal further trading shock Orange, mmO2 Mobile networks launch pre-pay price war Rupert Murdoch 'barred from voting' on his son's big Sky job British Airways Eddington maps out strategy to land Iberia

SkyePharma needs a tonic Burberry Brava, Bravo! Sainsbury Lovely Jubbly!, Tesco triumphant Debenhams' premium price tag Man Utd's hard man

Powergen to buy 1.2bn Midlands Electricity Scottish and Newcastle Pub groups set to change hands for 3.6bn

Granada, Carlton Hewitt to let ITV deal through - with strings attached Rentokil Initial Revealed: boss who thinks he's worth 247 workers WH Smith gives Indy three months BAE Systems MoD may slash Eurofighter project Matalan, Marks & Spencer Group Household names struggle to stay in fashion Singh to raise offer for New Look British Airways American is back in BA's sights

British Airways Giant of skies will struggle to get airborne BSkyB peer show backfires 2bn attempt to buy Chelsfield is 'theft' fumes City Capital loses Tarrant show

City prefers Sky finance chief to Murdoch Junior FSA referees examine Newcastle United Sainsbury falls further behind

AOL Time Warner EMI facing a 1bn fight for Warner British Airways BA boss sees tough times ahead BskyB rivals challenge Murdoch Jnr BT, Carphone Warehouse share tips Cadbury Schweppes, Nestor Packaging hides potential for income Deutsche Bank US firm eyes MyTravel cruises EasyJet sued by pilots in shares row EMI facing a 1bn fight for Warner Galen, Marconi share tips GUS deal may sink as rivals weigh in

MyTravel US firm eyes MyTravel cruises Northern Rock, Sanctuary Group share tips Private Equity S&N shuts out late pubs bidders Rentokil prospects looking good Rolls-Royce, Tenon Axed workers helping the young Scottish & Newcastle shuts out late pubs bidders Severn Trent Water share tips Wagon Industrial Holdings link-up on car safety systems

Marks & Spencer Yoga Girls slicker than the City

HSBC UK banks admit to links with Russian gun runner Pressure on Davis as Sainsbury's suffers RSA rights issue falters as hedge funds move in GlaxoSmithKline Drugs giants close to HIV giveaway for Third World

LogicaCMG The boss who went through a dot-com disaster and lived to do the deal Coffee Republic chains' turnover set to double

Sainsbury, Boots The chains that got stuck in the past Granada, Carlton The 10 leading television commercial directors Marks & Spencer, Matalan, JJB Sports Ho, ho, ho! Retailers on festivity alert Carlton, Granada, Barclays The greedy boardroom bastards are fanning flames of discontent  

Severn Trent. Uncertainty caused by the latest five-year regulatory price review has hit the sector, but ST is doing rather well.

Carlton, Granada Merger verdict poses questions for future of SMG Trinity Mirror Journalists on borrowed time UA puts up 20m in merger plan Lloyds to divert top funds into US manager HBOS launches 4m fund Scottish and Southern Energy raises shop profile on the high street

Spirit poised to enter talks to buy Scottish & Newcastle's pub chain Caledonia Investments director under scrutiny SMG Bank Kerrang! Radio wins licence bid Barclays shares soar as takeover rumour mill moves into overdrive

House of Fraser Hunter unveils d2 expansion

 Northern Rock gave a solid trading statement in which residential lending grew 41% and the lending pipeline is 36% higher than in the previous 12 months. Buy at 723p.

Tips: Buy Bellway at 612p - Bespak at 393p - Solitaire at 370p - Birse Group at 16p - Connaught at 343p - Sell WH Smith Group at 371p.Tip Updates: Buy Compass Group and Aquarius Platinum- Independent Media Distribution fairly priced.- Majestic Wine good value.Company Results: Buy Sportech - AG Barr - Smiths Group - Alpha Airports - Sell Johnston Group - BATM - Motion Media

Plays of the Week:  Buy 4Imprint Group at 82p - WSP at 142.5p - Dickinson Legg at 43p - IBnet at 3.5p.Tip Updates: Buy Clinton Cards, Sell GTL Resources, Hold GX Networks and Ideal Shopping Company Profile:LookersThe Portfolio Review: Buy Telecom Plus - Delta - Johnston Press - Future Network - Intechnology - Rexam - RPS - ICAP - Hiscox - McBride - Polar Capital - Baggeridge Brick - TBI - Honeycombe Leisure - Cobra Biomanufacturing - GW Pharma - Sell Online Travel - Hold EnterpriseAll Consuming Shares: Domino's Pizza - Diageo - Greene King - BSkyB .