Crocodile
- 10 Nov 2003 22:19
Premarket Futures |
FTSE -15 |
DAX -20 |
DOW -35 |
S&P -3.6 |
Nasdaq -5 |
News: |
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Despite positive news in the tech sector U.S. stock markets
sank lower on profit taking with the Nasdaq down 29.10, Dow Jones, down
53.26 and the S&P 500 down 6.10.
Canary Wharf, No
guaranteed bid.
Kingfisher said its sales growth slowed in the third
quarter, as it had anticipated due to very hot summer weather but tight
control of stocks and costs reduced the impact on profits. Third quarter
sales grew 3.6 percent compared with 5.5 percent growth in the first half.
Emap publishing and radio said it should meet
full-year goals even though it expected no material change in trading
conditions during its second half. They posted a nine percent rise in profit
to 94 million pounds in the six months to end-September, on turnover up
seven percent to 509 million pounds.
International Power
reported nine months earnings at the bottom of analysts' forecasts and
warned that tough conditions in the U.S would send profits down further in
2004. Earnings per share for the nine months fell to 7.2 pence from 12.8 a
year ago. Analysts had forecast 7.8 pence and the company said things were
so bad in the U.S that it may have to mothball some capacity.
BAA airports operator reported a
four percent rise in October passenger traffic from a year ago, its
strongest performance since the Iraq war this year. The lucrative north
Atlantic sector recording its first monthly gain since February.
Xansa computer services
said it expected turnover to be down in the second half although in line
with its expectations amid challenging market conditions.
Northern Foods reported a 16 percent fall in half-year
profits. After three profit warnings in the last two years the group said it
aims to stabilise second-half profits at last year's level. The company,
which makes own-label ready meals for Marks & Spencer reported 6 month
profits of 32.5 million pounds at the top of analysts forecast range of
29.5-32.5 million pounds.
Reckitt Benckiser report later
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Calendar:
United Kingdom |
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United States
(GMT) |
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Europe & World (GMT |
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Dicom Group (I), nCipher (I), Comino (I), EMAP (I) 92m
Intechnology (I), International Power (I)
Northern Foods (I), Oxford Instruments (I)
VT Group (I), Galen Holdings (F), Reckitt Benckiser (Q2)Dicom Group (AGM), ICM Computer (AGM)
Smiths Group (AGM), Kingfisher (Update)
P&O Trading statementCBI regional trends survey
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JC Penney Q3
12:45 BTM retail chain index |
Bayer D Q3, Beiersdorf D Q3
Banca Intesa I Q3, Celesio D Q3
Mediaset I Q3, T-Online D Q3
Wedeco D Q3
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ThePlayboy
- 11 Nov 2003 07:11
- 3 of 45
11/8: So far so good the count shown. Ideally this was another 1-2 of a larger 3rd wave down today, and we continue rapidly down from here to test 9200 and confirm the larger ending diagonal pattern.
Having said that, there is a clear 5 wave pattern down here, and a moderate rally back up above 9850 early tomorrow would not be unexpected as a wave 2 small degree rally is due at some point.
So, near term, rapid decline tomorrow says another 1-2 down of the larger 3 and we quickly test 9230.
A sloppy rally/sideways action up above 9800 from here tomorrow allows taking a decent short position with a stop at 9900 in anticipation of wave 3 down once the corrective action completes.
Near term confirmation of the pattern is a decline below the lower boundary, or 9650.
Updated 11/10 for Tuesday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 11/11
UP Above 9,800
DN Current Trend
Down Day
Dow pushes lower within wide range, breaks support.
From prior commentary, "...The index has now established a wide trading range from 9,770 to 9,900...A downside break at support at 9,770 will likely make for a much deeper retracement..."
The Dow opened the session weak this morning and began to sell off toward the lower boundary of the wide trading range that had formed from 9,770 to 9,900, seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts. The index eventually reached support at 9,770 where it held for a short period before finally resuming the move lower to the Close, losing 53 points for the day.
Today's downmove could lead to an even further decline toward the major lower trend line at about 9,650, seen in the Daily and Weekly Charts. The index has trended sharply higher above this key trend line since March and will likely continue to do so until this line is broken to the downside. However, we could see a test of the line in the near term at 9,650.
The fact that the Dow has broken support at 9,770 indicates further weakness for tomorrow's trading, especially if the index breaks and holds below 9,700. Otherwise, look for the index to form a range at the lows before direction is decided. An upside break back above 9,800 will indicate strength.
Short Term Dow
Short term, the Dow has formed a tight range at the lows of the 5 Minute Chart from 9,735 to 9,785. Watch for a break from this range for direction tomorrow morning.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we entered the market Short today at 9,770 and are still in the position. We will continue to hold stops at the entry for tomorrow's market and will look for Longs above 9,800, using 20 point stops.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ and S&P each trended lower toward clear support today, which we will watch closely for tomorrow's market. *
Summary
The Dow trended lower throughout the session today, selling off 53 points by the session close. Since the index has broken support at 9,770, look for continued weakness toward the major lower trend line in the near term.
TUE FTSE PP
R2 4391
R1 4366
PP 4342
S1 4328
S2 4314
Close was below Mon PP after gaining 2.7pts in the auction! Tue 2 day ftse chart seems to be looking to a brk up of the downtrend at 4360 and a brk down at 4340 with 4330 LT sup below!
Crocodile
- 11 Nov 2003 07:36
- 4 of 45
Morning all
Druid2
- 11 Nov 2003 09:00
- 6 of 45
Morning all. Tempted with a small ETL long at 48.75 on the dip today. Prepared to add if it goes against me.
Crocodile
- 11 Nov 2003 09:07
- 7 of 45
Running a short on KGF
Melnibone
- 11 Nov 2003 09:12
- 8 of 45
Morning all,
Looks like S2 is holding.
Hoping for a little bounce back from here.
Don't always get what we want though.
Melnibone
Melnibone
- 11 Nov 2003 10:07
- 10 of 45
My MKS are doing the same as your AVZ.
Been toying with the idea of taking a small profit and
buying back cheaper.
Trouble is, I did that last week with BT.A and looked what
happened there. :-(
Melnibone
Melnibone
- 11 Nov 2003 10:20
- 13 of 45
Yes, BT.A due thursday I believe.
MKS goes ex Divi (4.4p), tomorrow.
Melnibone
Melnibone
- 11 Nov 2003 10:21
- 14 of 45
Our posts crossed. ;-)
Melnibone.
Melnibone
- 11 Nov 2003 10:48
- 15 of 45
Just took my profit on MKS on that last bounce.
Now to see if I can get the position back cheaper.
Croc's chart is making me very cautious here.
Melnibone.
Paulismyname
- 11 Nov 2003 11:54
- 18 of 45
Thanks little woman for your email, tried to reply but Moneyam or my computer playing up. Bit difficult for me to organise a South East group myself so will await a London Traders day
Paul
Melnibone
- 11 Nov 2003 12:26
- 20 of 45
Looks like I got my timing right on MKS.
Now have the option of buying back cheaper.
Too close to the US open to make a decision now.
Futures look weaker so will wait and see the US
market direction.
Melnibone