ThePlayboy
- 21 Nov 2003 07:14
- 2 of 11
11/20: Very clear corrective advance with a sharp drop to a new low for the move (only by a couple of points, but the fact remains).
Best fit is shown, with an alternate that this is some kind of flat/expanded flat correction here.
Confirmation of the pattern shown will come with a continuation of the decline right from the open tomorrow, at which point today's high can be used for an aggressive short stop.
The daily pattern is looking like this might all be part of a larger 3rd wave down, but nothing conclusive yet.
Near term it doesn't change anything, and we still should decline rapidly to at least 9230, and more likely than not below 8800 before a significant corrective rally at the next larger degree of trend occurs.
Technicals are still on sells, and so far confirm the count shown.
So, early tomorrow, another pop up like today says a more complex pattern is playing out, otherwise expect this to follow-though with a triple digit decline.
A 200+ down day would not be surprising at this juncture...
Updated 11/20 for Friday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 11/21
UP Above 9,750
DN Below 9,600
Trading Range, continued...
Dow continues sideways within wide range.
From prior commentary, "...The Dow has now formed a wide trading range at the lows of the recent downmove, from 9,615 to 9,750...We will likely see continued sideways movement within the range until a solid break of the boundaries occurs..."
The Dow traded sharply lower this morning, but held at the lower boundary of the wide trading range that has formed from 9,610 to 9,750, seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts. The index then made a solid move higher within the range before finally settling back at support, closing the session lower by 71 points.
The fact that the index has formed a wide range at the lows of the recent downmove implies weakness in the medium term. A downside break from the range at 9,600 will likely spark a continuation lower, while an upside break through 9,750 will likely push the index back toward major resistance at 9,900.
As mentioned yesterday, we could see further trading range movement before a break either way is seen. We want to watch the boundaries of the range closely.
Short Term Dow
Short term, the Dow is holding right at clear short term support at 9,610, seen in the 5 Minute Chart. This is the fulcrum level we want to watch tomorrow; a break or bounce will likely lead the next short term move.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we are still out of the market, since none of our entry levels were triggered. We will continue to watch 9,750 up, and 9,600 down, with 20 point stops.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ and S&P each moved higher off support throughout the day, but fell sharply to the close to end the day back at support. Watch the respective trading range boundaries tomorrow. *
Summary
The Dow traded back and forth within the wide trading range boundaries today and now rests right at support. Watch the trading range boundaries closely, as a break either way will likely lead to a solid move. Our range is 9,600 down, and 9,750 up for tomorrow.
FRI FTSE PP
R2 4398
R1 4353
PP 4312
S1 4266
S2 4226
Close was below Thu s1 after gaining 3.6pts in the auction! 2 day ftse chart targeting a brk up out of the 5day dowtrend at 4320, sup at 4280, wide range due to Thu volatility!
DJ FIBS
9784 61.8
9752 50
9720 38
Druid2
- 21 Nov 2003 07:46
- 3 of 11
Morning all. Thanks Croc & TP.
Druid2
- 21 Nov 2003 13:02
- 7 of 11
EZJ looking weak again today.
Melnibone
- 21 Nov 2003 15:33
- 8 of 11
Afternoon all,
Just logged. Haven't been trading today, too many things to do.
Don't seem to have missed much.
Will have a look around and see if anything looks
worth starting to build a position in.
Doubt I'll find anything, I'm not expecting a lot
of change today.(Famous last words)
Melnibone
Melnibone
- 21 Nov 2003 15:57
- 9 of 11
LGEN looks interesting again.
Trouble is the daily chart looks like a staircase that's
still going down.
I'd prefer to see if it holds the 100p support level.
It dipped below it yesterday and came back up.
If it goes much below 100p I would imagine that there
are some stops there, that if triggered could precipitate
a steep decline.
Think I'll leave it and see what happens. Not happy about
taking new positions prior to the weekend in the current
geo-political situation.
Melnibone.
stockbunny
- 21 Nov 2003 16:01
- 10 of 11
At least as the afternoon is progressing the screen is showing a
bit more 'green' and a little less 'red'...I suppose the odd splash
of 'blue' is asking too much!
Melnibone
- 21 Nov 2003 16:39
- 11 of 11
Looks like I picked a good day not to trade.
Nothing much really moving.
I still reckon nobody wants to take the risk of a
new position.
People are sitting pretty after the last 7 months,
so why spoil it with a bad call in the current uncertainty?
Logging off now, see you all around.
Melnibone