ThePlayboy
- 27 Nov 2003 07:12
- 2 of 13
THU FTSE
PP
R2 4444
R1 4407
PP 4387
S1 4350
S2 4330
Close was below Wed S1 after loosing 4.7 pts in the auction, 2 day ftse chart showing short term uptrend broken at 4400, brk up at 90 to 4415, or continued falls to 4360 sup! and S2 4330 sup
Updated 11/26 for Friday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 11/28
UP Above 9,800
DN Below 9,715
Expanding Range
Dow forms expanding range. Watch boundaries.
From prior commentary, "...the Dow has formed an upward-sloping consolidation at the highs, which could be bearish. A downside break from the pattern at 9,730 could spark another push down within the wide trading range, seen in the 60 Minute Chart. Moreover, we could see a slight pull-back due to the Holiday-shortened week..."
The Dow broke the lower boundary of its pennant consolidation seen in the 15 minute chart this morning, and traded lower to support at 9,715. It then reversed off that level and traded higher to the Close, forming an expanding range.
The index continues to hold its ground at the highs in a trading range, which could lead to a continuation move higher. An upside break through 9,800 could push the index higher to its next major resistance level at 9,900. The index has not been able to rise above this level. Any break through it will be a strong indication of further upside movement.
In general, we are seeing expanding ranges on all three indexes. Expanding ranges are typically unstable patterns. Since the Dow is hovering below its major 9,900 resistance level, a downside break through the lower boundary is likely. In addition, the index has formed a tight pennant consolidation in the 15 minute chart off support.
A break through the lower boundary at 9,775 will likely spark a move lower to support at 9,715. This is the most likely scenario if the index is to make a move on Friday. Currently, our expectation is to see a sideways market due to the shortened trading day and holiday weekend.
Short Term Dow
Short term, the Dow has formed a trend line across the lows of the up move off support seen in the 5 minute chart at 9,776.5. Watch for a break through this level to indicate a short term move lower.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we closed our Longs at 9,730 for 33 points profit. We entered Short at the same level but were stopped out. Therefore, we are currently out of the market and will watch 9,800 up and 9,715 down, with 20 point stops.
NASDAQ & S&P
The S&P mirrored the Dow today and broke the lower boundary of its downside pennant consolidation, but traded higher to the close, forming an expanding range. The NASDAQ gapped and dropped this morning, but pulled up off its lows to close in positive territory. Watch the range boundaries tomorrow. *
Summary
The Dow broke the lower boundary of its downside pennant consolidation this morning and traded lower to support. It then reversed off that level to form an expanding range at the highs. We are currently out of the market and will watch 9,800 up, and 9,715 down on Friday.
Melnibone
- 27 Nov 2003 09:00
- 7 of 13
Morning all,
Looks like we'll get a low volume boring day.
Index will probably shift like a sloth between
pivot points.
Low volume may throw up some buy or sell targets
for your individual stocks due to distortion on
the low volume. But I only expect them to be spikes
so you'll have to be quick if you want to get them.
No dilly-dallying around. :-)
Melnibone
Melnibone
- 27 Nov 2003 09:19
- 9 of 13
Looks like we're in a 5 point trading range. Lol.
Volume is pathetic, now you see the influence of
the US markets on the UK market.
Volume is surprisingly good on BT.A, it's not far
behind VOD.
Compare BT.A(14million) to AVZ(150,000) for instance.
Maybe people are starting to find value at 170/174p.
I managed to pick a few more of these up near the close
yesterday when they dipped right down on the New York
subway report.
Melnibone
Melnibone
- 27 Nov 2003 09:59
- 12 of 13
Well, the FTSE has drifted down and filled the small
gap open.
Where's it going to drift to next?
Down to the 4360 area or back towards R1?
Melnibone
Melnibone
- 27 Nov 2003 10:40
- 13 of 13
Getting bored with this.
Had a couple of easy scalps on BT.A and MKS this morning.
Think I'll log off for the morning and get some chores done.
See you all later.
Melnibone