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Traders Thread - Thursday 4th December (CBRY)
Crocodile - 03 Dec 2003 23:23
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In the US a midday rally ran out of steam as the Nasdaq composite crossed 2,000 for the first time in nearly two years, only to fall back and drag the rest of the market with it. The Dow Jones finished up 19.78, S&P down 1.89 down 19.82 to 1960.2 DEBENHAMS SHARES SUSPENDED .... Awaiting further news Reed Elsevier publisher said it is on track for double-digit 2003 earnings growth,BUT that a soft education market and increased investment would result in slightly lower growth in 2004. Mitchells & Butlers pub operator reported a one percent drop in annual profits (just above analyst forecasts) and said the outlook for its business is improving but it remains cautious on the outlook for consumer spending.Securicor reported a slight rise in profits and said although it was still seeing tough trading it saw 2004 with confidence. They posted profits of 80.2 million pounds and boosted its annual dividend by 14 percent to 2.4 pence per share. Kelda water and utility group reported a 5.8 percent rise in half-year profits that was at the top end of market forecasts, Premier Farnell electronics distributor reported a fall in third-quarter profits in line with market expectations, but said it had seen uneven signs of improvement in its key markets. Profits fell to 15.2 million pounds with analysts forecast of 15.2 million to 16.4 million pounds. Cadbury Later On Today |
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AWG (I) PBT 34.1m exp, Holidaybreak (F) PBT 28.2m exp. Mitchells & Butlers (F) PBT 195m exp, Premier Farnell (Q3) PBT 15.9m exp, Securicor (F) PBT 64m exp. AEA Technology (I), Avon Rubber (F), Dyson Group (I), Findel (I), Kelda Group (I), Xansa (I)Debenhams Offer by Baroness Retail Ex Date. Terms are 470p per share Cadbury Schweppes Trading Statement 12.00 BOE Rate Announcement 00.01 Nov BRC Shop Price Index Europe: 10.30 NTC, Deloitte & REC Report on Jobs |
Dollar General Corp. (DG) 13.30 Initial Jobless Claims (w/e 29/11) 355k exp. |
Porsche (F), ThyssenKrup AG (F) 11.00 Oct Preliminary BBK Factory Orders m/m 0.7% exp. 11.00 September Retail Trade m/m |
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ThePlayboy
- 04 Dec 2003 07:11
- 2 of 26
LONDON (AFX) - The Bank of England's monetary policy committee is not
expected to raise interest rates for the second consecutive month when it
completes its latest deliberations today.
All 28 economists polled by AFX News expect the MPC to hold fire and keep
the repo rate at 3.75 pct. That's all the more likely, they say, given that the
nine-member committee has never raised rates in December before.
"The MPC has never raised rates in December," said Geoff Dicks, economist at
Royal Bank of Scotland. "To judge from the cautious tone of the November
minutes, they are not about to break with tradition."
The minutes talked about moving interest rates "cautiously", while the BoE's
governor Mervyn King indicated to MPs that there may have been a change in the
transmission mechanism of a change in rates on spending and inflation.
"In short, this confirms that the MPC will pay scrupulous attention to how
consumers react to rate changes," said Philip Shaw, chief UK economist at
Investec.
stockcharts
12/3: Got a rally above 9903, and that means the previous decline was a corrective one and this is either wave 1 of a much larger 3rd wave up to much higher levels, or wave C of a mutated ending diagonal on the daily.
I'll have to update the daily charts on the weekend as it should allow some more pattern to try and figure out what is going on.
The pop and drop today has all the hallmarks of a reversal, and the NDX failed to post a new high for the move so an intra-market divergence still exists.
The pattern up from 9600 now counts best as shown, and conservative players are back to waiting for a clear 5 down/3up.
stockcharts
Note that any decline that fails to put in a low below 9600, or a sidways meandering/down pattern is bullish near term.
We've got divergence with price on the RSI, and that says a pullback is due, but no indication of what size.
Near term aggressive types can short a breach of the wave 4 low near 9830, and anything that gets down below 9700 shifts the counts back to bearish.
If this is wave 3 of a larger advance, we don't drop much at all and rally strongly from here.
If you are short and did not cover today, this pattern says hold the position with a stop at today's high.
Hard to tell if this was the floor traders running the stops or not, but it sure looks that way when the rally fades so quickly late in the day...
Updated 12/3 for Thursday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 12/4
UP Above 9,950
DN Below 9,830
Below 9,900
Dow breaks through resistance, but cannot hold above.
From prior commentary, "...The fact that the index has formed a tight consolidation at the highs of the recent upmove is promising of an upside break through resistance in the near term..."
The Dow got the upside break through the top of the consolidation today, which boosted the index past the 9,900 resistance level, as seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts. The upside break boosted the Dow to its highest levels in a year and a half, but the gains were short-lived, as the index fell back below resistance by day's end.
The fact that the index was not able to hold above resistance implies uncertainly and weakness heading into tomorrow's market. The afternoon downturn could prelude an even further decline tomorrow, especially if 9,830 is broken to the downside. This is quite likely given the index's indecision at resistance.
The key here is that the market is at important long term resistance in general, AND is forming an upward sloping channel. We are "overdue" for a correction, and this could be the start. It will be important to watch support at about 9,840. If we break that level, we are probably going to retrace the prior move. This conflicts with the classic "holiday effect" - markets tend to go up in December and January. But, the technical setup still suggests a pullback is very possible.
However, if the index can rise back above resistance and break through 9,950, we could see a test of the psychological 10,000 level.
Short Term Dow
Short term, the Dow has formed a tight consolidation at the lows of the 1 Minute Chart from 9,873 to 9,885. A downside break is implied, but watch both boundaries for direction at the Open.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we entered the market Long this morning at 9,920, but stopped out on the reversal for a 20 point loss. No other trades were triggered and we are now out of the market. We will look to enter Longs above 9,950, and Shorts below 9,830, with 20 point stops.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ and S&P traded slightly higher today before finally giving it all back by day's end. Each index sold off heavily to the Close, which could foreshadow a likely continuation tomorrow. *
Summary
The Dow held above the 9,900 resistance level for much of the session today, but melted late in the day, giving back all but 20 points of the day's gains. The uncertainty at resistance could make for a likely push lower off the level in the medium term. Otherwise, the index must break through 9,950 to have a chance at 10,000.
THU FTSE PP
R2 4417
R1 4405
PP 4389
S1 4376
S2 4360
Close on Wed was above the pp after gaining 5.9pts in the acution! 2 day ftse chart forming a pennant with a brk of 4375 down and 4395 up!
expected to raise interest rates for the second consecutive month when it
completes its latest deliberations today.
All 28 economists polled by AFX News expect the MPC to hold fire and keep
the repo rate at 3.75 pct. That's all the more likely, they say, given that the
nine-member committee has never raised rates in December before.
"The MPC has never raised rates in December," said Geoff Dicks, economist at
Royal Bank of Scotland. "To judge from the cautious tone of the November
minutes, they are not about to break with tradition."
The minutes talked about moving interest rates "cautiously", while the BoE's
governor Mervyn King indicated to MPs that there may have been a change in the
transmission mechanism of a change in rates on spending and inflation.
"In short, this confirms that the MPC will pay scrupulous attention to how
consumers react to rate changes," said Philip Shaw, chief UK economist at
Investec.
stockcharts
12/3: Got a rally above 9903, and that means the previous decline was a corrective one and this is either wave 1 of a much larger 3rd wave up to much higher levels, or wave C of a mutated ending diagonal on the daily.
I'll have to update the daily charts on the weekend as it should allow some more pattern to try and figure out what is going on.
The pop and drop today has all the hallmarks of a reversal, and the NDX failed to post a new high for the move so an intra-market divergence still exists.
The pattern up from 9600 now counts best as shown, and conservative players are back to waiting for a clear 5 down/3up.
stockcharts
Note that any decline that fails to put in a low below 9600, or a sidways meandering/down pattern is bullish near term.
We've got divergence with price on the RSI, and that says a pullback is due, but no indication of what size.
Near term aggressive types can short a breach of the wave 4 low near 9830, and anything that gets down below 9700 shifts the counts back to bearish.
If this is wave 3 of a larger advance, we don't drop much at all and rally strongly from here.
If you are short and did not cover today, this pattern says hold the position with a stop at today's high.
Hard to tell if this was the floor traders running the stops or not, but it sure looks that way when the rally fades so quickly late in the day...
Updated 12/3 for Thursday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 12/4
UP Above 9,950
DN Below 9,830
Below 9,900
Dow breaks through resistance, but cannot hold above.
From prior commentary, "...The fact that the index has formed a tight consolidation at the highs of the recent upmove is promising of an upside break through resistance in the near term..."
The Dow got the upside break through the top of the consolidation today, which boosted the index past the 9,900 resistance level, as seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts. The upside break boosted the Dow to its highest levels in a year and a half, but the gains were short-lived, as the index fell back below resistance by day's end.
The fact that the index was not able to hold above resistance implies uncertainly and weakness heading into tomorrow's market. The afternoon downturn could prelude an even further decline tomorrow, especially if 9,830 is broken to the downside. This is quite likely given the index's indecision at resistance.
The key here is that the market is at important long term resistance in general, AND is forming an upward sloping channel. We are "overdue" for a correction, and this could be the start. It will be important to watch support at about 9,840. If we break that level, we are probably going to retrace the prior move. This conflicts with the classic "holiday effect" - markets tend to go up in December and January. But, the technical setup still suggests a pullback is very possible.
However, if the index can rise back above resistance and break through 9,950, we could see a test of the psychological 10,000 level.
Short Term Dow
Short term, the Dow has formed a tight consolidation at the lows of the 1 Minute Chart from 9,873 to 9,885. A downside break is implied, but watch both boundaries for direction at the Open.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we entered the market Long this morning at 9,920, but stopped out on the reversal for a 20 point loss. No other trades were triggered and we are now out of the market. We will look to enter Longs above 9,950, and Shorts below 9,830, with 20 point stops.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ and S&P traded slightly higher today before finally giving it all back by day's end. Each index sold off heavily to the Close, which could foreshadow a likely continuation tomorrow. *
Summary
The Dow held above the 9,900 resistance level for much of the session today, but melted late in the day, giving back all but 20 points of the day's gains. The uncertainty at resistance could make for a likely push lower off the level in the medium term. Otherwise, the index must break through 9,950 to have a chance at 10,000.
THU FTSE PP
R2 4417
R1 4405
PP 4389
S1 4376
S2 4360
Close on Wed was above the pp after gaining 5.9pts in the acution! 2 day ftse chart forming a pennant with a brk of 4375 down and 4395 up!
Crocodile - 04 Dec 2003 07:45 - 3 of 26
Morning all, Thanks TP
foale
- 04 Dec 2003 07:55
- 4 of 26
Where is everybody today...
Druid2
- 04 Dec 2003 07:56
- 5 of 26
Morning all. Thanks Croc & TP.
Douggie - 04 Dec 2003 08:00 - 6 of 26
mornin all
little woman
- 04 Dec 2003 08:44
- 7 of 26
Morning & thanks all
Foale, we're running late (although we investors don't get up as early as the traders!), or are on in the wrong room?
Foale, we're running late (although we investors don't get up as early as the traders!), or are on in the wrong room?
Melnibone - 04 Dec 2003 08:44 - 8 of 26
Morning all,
My plan worked and I got my two longer term stocks
back cheaper when the FTSE hit S1.
Now back to some scalping.
Melnibone.
My plan worked and I got my two longer term stocks
back cheaper when the FTSE hit S1.
Now back to some scalping.
Melnibone.
little woman
- 04 Dec 2003 08:46
- 9 of 26
Pleased to see DYS producing interim above market expectaions. Shame they didn't increase the div, especially as the underlying profit per share was up 18%
little woman
- 04 Dec 2003 09:40
- 10 of 26
CNA is the best performing FTSE 100 share at the moment!
stockbunny
- 04 Dec 2003 09:51
- 11 of 26
Morning Folks!
So we feel the news at 12.00 will be as expected - no rate change?
That's where my money would go...
So we feel the news at 12.00 will be as expected - no rate change?
That's where my money would go...
Melnibone - 04 Dec 2003 10:01 - 12 of 26
CAC and DAX have closed the gap and gone positive.
FTSE nearly back to PP and nearly closed the gap.
That worked out quite nicely. Time for a coffee and
do a bit of watching whilst I work out my next moves.
All indices are looking good and still in trend, but
I really would like a pullback to limit the downside.
I get a little nervous when we are up near the trend
highs.
Melnibone
FTSE nearly back to PP and nearly closed the gap.
That worked out quite nicely. Time for a coffee and
do a bit of watching whilst I work out my next moves.
All indices are looking good and still in trend, but
I really would like a pullback to limit the downside.
I get a little nervous when we are up near the trend
highs.
Melnibone
stv
- 04 Dec 2003 10:41
- 13 of 26
I was expecting a pullback and am very disappointed and severely financialy worse off with this mornings very strong Futures advancements and a +ve Dax. Maybe it reflects strengthening $/. :(
little woman
- 04 Dec 2003 12:24
- 14 of 26
The market doesn't seem to be able to make up its mind.
Melnibone - 04 Dec 2003 12:28 - 15 of 26
Market is waiting for initial jobless claims
and the US reaction.
The big one comes tomorrow where 150,000 jobs
are expected to be added in the US.
Melnibone.
and the US reaction.
The big one comes tomorrow where 150,000 jobs
are expected to be added in the US.
Melnibone.
little woman
- 04 Dec 2003 12:42
- 16 of 26
Just been over to the Traders room, to read the traders thread and Copied this from, which also was copied from another thread elsewhere....
daily reckoning always a good skim read
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/
*** What kind of a cynic would not love this wonderfully mad world? The Chinese work around the clock... save their money... and then lend it to rich spendthrifts who cannot possibly pay it back. The Americans take the money, mortgage their houses... and their government... and their children's solvency... to buy gee-gaws and gadgets that they don't need from the Chinese, even stomping on old ladies in their rush to load up on bargains at Wal-Mart. The Chinese then build more factories and hire more workers to create more products for the people who couldn't pay for the last products they sold... while the Americans, noticing only the rate of spending and borrowing, think they are 'recovering'... getting rich again, without actually saving any
money. Meanwhile, the currency in which all these transactions take place loses its value, day after day.
LOL
daily reckoning always a good skim read
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/
*** What kind of a cynic would not love this wonderfully mad world? The Chinese work around the clock... save their money... and then lend it to rich spendthrifts who cannot possibly pay it back. The Americans take the money, mortgage their houses... and their government... and their children's solvency... to buy gee-gaws and gadgets that they don't need from the Chinese, even stomping on old ladies in their rush to load up on bargains at Wal-Mart. The Chinese then build more factories and hire more workers to create more products for the people who couldn't pay for the last products they sold... while the Americans, noticing only the rate of spending and borrowing, think they are 'recovering'... getting rich again, without actually saving any
money. Meanwhile, the currency in which all these transactions take place loses its value, day after day.
LOL
Melnibone - 04 Dec 2003 12:45 - 17 of 26
The sleepy US is starting to wake up and shrug off
the effect of last nights Martini.
Futures are rising.
DOW back over 9900 and S@P knocking on the door of 1069.
We got the pullback during normal trading hours yesterday,
so unless they want to pocket some of Tuesdays profits
it will take some news to give a reason not to retest
yesterdays highs.
We'll find out in a few hours.
Melnibone
the effect of last nights Martini.
Futures are rising.
DOW back over 9900 and S@P knocking on the door of 1069.
We got the pullback during normal trading hours yesterday,
so unless they want to pocket some of Tuesdays profits
it will take some news to give a reason not to retest
yesterdays highs.
We'll find out in a few hours.
Melnibone
Douggie - 04 Dec 2003 12:54 - 18 of 26
litle woman great post ..15 looks about right.
Melnibone still xfinger Dow/ft go up, agree bum nip time at this level :-(
Melnibone still xfinger Dow/ft go up, agree bum nip time at this level :-(
ThePlayboy
- 04 Dec 2003 13:33
- 19 of 26
Jobless worse at 365k, futs slid 11 so far, last weeks figs revised up 4k usual scenario!
david 2000
- 04 Dec 2003 14:10
- 20 of 26
What you doing over hear, TP!!!! :_)) you got lost like foale this AM!!!
ThePlayboy
- 04 Dec 2003 14:11
- 21 of 26
d2k who let you out? get back where u belong:)
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