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Traders Thread - Thursday 8th January (ANL)
Crocodile - 07 Jan 2004 21:04
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The Nasdaq closed higher for the third consecutive trading day and finished with a new two-year high. A rally on the DOW pulled back most of the early losses but it still finished down 11 on the day. Euro falls again against the dollar Big Food Group owner of the Iceland frozen food chain and Booker wholesale business, said it continues to make steady progress. Group sales for Q3 were up 2% in line with analysts' expectations though slightly down on 2.2 percent growth in the previous quarter. Hays recruitment said there had been no material change in its performance since its last trading update in November.Wyevale Garden Centres said like-for-like sales rose 5.7 percent year-on-year in the nine weeks to December 28. That left its fourth quarter like-for-like sales 7.9 percent higher AMEC engineering said it expected to make further progress in 2004, helped by a recovery in its North American market and new business prospects in Iraq. Alfred McAlpine said its overall financial performance last year had been in line with market expectations. Taylow Woodrow housebuilder said results would be in line with its expectations, as it continued to benefit from the booming housing market. House of Fraser department store group under persistent bid speculation said it expected "satisfactory" annual results as cost cuts helped to offset a slowdown in sales in the runup to the key Christmas period. It said like-for-like sales rose 0.1 percent in the 23 weeks to January 3, compared with a 5.4 percent rise in the first seven weeks of the second half of its financial year. (Poor Figures ??) EasyJet Plc reported a 16 percent rise in passenger traffic for December, shrugging off pressure in the sector from renewed concerns of terror attacks. EasyJet said it carried 1,668,394 passengers last month, up from 1,433,400 passengers a year ago. Its load factor -- a measure of how full its planes are -- also rose to 80 percent from 77 percent. |
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Abbey National (I) Big Food Group Trading Statement House of Fraser (Update), EasyJet Dec Traffic Kidde Trading Statement, Taylor Woodrow Trading Statement Taylor Nelson Sofres Trading Statement, Signet Trading Statement 00.01 Dec BRC Shop Price Index 12.00 BOE MPC Rate Announcement |
Alcoa 13.30 Initial Jobless Claims (w/e 03/01) 345k exp. 15.00 Nov Wholesale Inventories 0.5% exp. 20.00 Nov Consumer Credit $5.0bn exp. |
Carrefour (Update), Renault (Sales) 08.55 Dec German Unemployment Change 5k exp. 11.00 Nov PPI m/m flat exp. 12.45 ECB Rate Announcement |
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ThePlayboy
- 08 Jan 2004 07:11
- 2 of 31
R2 4530
R1 4501
PP 4484
S1 4455
S2 4438
Close was on Tue S2 but spiked up on Dow finding its legs bang on our close, almost comical! 2 day ftse chart brk up at 4485 right on the pp, if not cont weakness to 4450 imho! (edit gap u through pp on open)
ThePlayboy
- 08 Jan 2004 07:12
- 3 of 31
Key DOW Levels for 1/8
UP Above 10,550
DN Below 10,465
Range Formed
Dow trades sideways, forms wide range within steep channel.
From prior commentary, "...The fact that the index has formed a tight range at the highs indicates a building strength, which could make for further upside movement within the steep uptrend..."
The Dow pulled back for the session, but basically traded sideways today, forming a wide trading range at the highs from 10,465 to 10,550, seen in the 15 Minute Chart. The range has formed within the steep channel that has continued to form over the course of the last seven weeks, seen in the 60 Minute Chart.
A downside break from the range at 10,465 would cause of a break of the lower channel boundary, thus opening the door to a potentially sharp decline. Watch this level closely, as we will want to be "in" the market when this level is broken.
However, an upside break through the top of the range at 10,550 will likely fuel a continuation of the current uptrend within the channel boundaries. Such a break could push the Dow back up toward the upper trend line of the channel at around 10,700 area.
Short Term Dow
Short term, the Dow has formed a clear trend line beneath the lows of the late-day rally, seen in the 1 Minute Chart. A downside break of the line at 10,520 will likely spark weakness for tomorrow's Open. Otherwise, look for continued upside movement above the line.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we entered the market Short this morning at 10,488, but stopped out of the position with a 20 point loss. No other positions were triggered and we are now out of the market. We will look to enter Longs above 10,550, and Shorts below 10,465, with 20 point stops.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ and S&P each pushed slowly, but steadily higher throughout the session today. Look for a continued upward push unless the lower trend lines are crossed tomorrow. *
Summary
The Dow has now formed a wide trading range at the highs within the steep channel, which implies continued strength in the medium term. An upside break through the top of the range at 10,550 will likely spark another big wave higher within the range, while a break through the lower trend line of the channel will signal weakness.
Druid2
- 08 Jan 2004 07:32
- 4 of 31
Edit later - just seen them up 16% - carried 1.7m passengers. Share price slightly up. Care required though as RSI (21) at over 70.
Crocodile - 08 Jan 2004 07:37 - 5 of 31
prodman - 08 Jan 2004 07:51 - 6 of 31
Melnibone - 08 Jan 2004 09:33 - 7 of 31
I see we are treading water again with a slightly negative bias.
BOE and ECB rate decisions should be a non event.
Market will wait for the initial jobless claims at 1330 Hrs
before it does anything fancy. If there are no surprises
there, then it will be down to the earnings reporting season,
which starts today, and the good old-fashioned trading reaction
to the news and sentiment.
Melnibone.
little woman
- 08 Jan 2004 09:39
- 8 of 31
ThePlayboy
- 08 Jan 2004 09:48
- 9 of 31
Melnibone - 08 Jan 2004 10:11 - 10 of 31
Until the $ stops sliding, raising the Euro or the will just
make the situation worse and make Euroland exports even
more uncompetitive.
Inflation isn't a problem for the BOE. Consumer spending and
house prices would appear to be slowing.
With regard to the ECB, it was known as the 'Surprise Bank'
when Duisenberg was in the hot seat, so I wouldn't be
surprised at anything that that lot get up to.
Melnibone.
ThePlayboy
- 08 Jan 2004 10:17
- 11 of 31
Melnibone - 08 Jan 2004 10:23 - 12 of 31
at 1030 this morning.
Have to have a listen to that. Last time he was on he
was predicting rising markets to July and then a steep
sell off.
I think he is basing it on election year cycles.
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 08 Jan 2004 11:10 - 13 of 31
Markets to spike up over the next two/three trading days.
Dow to go over 10800 and FTSE over 4600.
Retracement to Dow 10300 and FTSE 4330. (approx).
Sideways FEB/MAR.
Then rise to all time highs on the DOW over 11000 which will
drag the FTSE up until mid summer.(July'ish).
Steep sell off for a negative year.
All his views, not mine.
Melnibone.
little woman
- 08 Jan 2004 11:10
- 14 of 31
little woman
- 08 Jan 2004 12:29
- 15 of 31
little woman
- 08 Jan 2004 13:08
- 16 of 31
little woman
- 08 Jan 2004 13:17
- 17 of 31
ThePlayboy
- 08 Jan 2004 13:26
- 18 of 31
little woman
- 08 Jan 2004 13:41
- 19 of 31
ThePlayboy
- 08 Jan 2004 14:04
- 20 of 31
stockbunny
- 08 Jan 2004 15:08
- 21 of 31
Go ULVR, RTR and LLOY
I could do with more days like this!!!!
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