INDUSTRY COMES OFF THE CRITICAL LIST
After three years in the doldrums, the Confederation of British Industry says the manufacturing sector is returning to health. Updates on the patient's progress are offered this week.

Monday offers the index of production for December. Hopes should perhaps not be raised too high - the November index showed a dip in manufacturing output.

Producer price data due the same day may show cost pressures still heavy.

The CBI warned that economic recovery had yet to lift the fortunes of smaller manufacturers when it last issued a regional survey back in November.

One crumb of comfort was that companies were more hopeful on the outlook.

Tuesday's update will show whether the optimism was justified. The CBI has expressed fear of a "two-speed economy" which will not have been helped by Thursday's interest rate rise.

Analysts have suggested the Bank of England will slowly and steadily hike rates to hit 4.75% by the end of 2004.

The Bank's quarterly inflation report on Wednesday will be keenly examined to see if it fits with this scenario of a gradual tightening of monetary policy.

News that both consumer spending and house price inflation have yet to show the expected slowdown may make the Bank a little less sanguine in its outlook.

Shell shock benefits BP

After the battering suffered by oil and gas giant Shell over the downgrade to its proved reserves, rival BP comes under the spotlight on Tuesday.

Its full-year results will benefit from the comparison, although the group has downplayed fourth quarter expectations.

Third-quarter figures unveiled in October disappointed investors although profits were 25% up year-on-year and hopes are high for its Russia venture.

The escalating takeover battle for Franco-German drugs group Aventis will heighten interest in Thursday's finals from GlaxoSmithKline.

GSK, cited as a possible "white knight" as the France's government would prefer it as new owner to Sanofi-Syntelabo, also has a French chief executive.

Third-quarter profits were well ahead, but cheaper, generic rivals are hurting and GSK now faces a 2.7bn US tax bill.

Consumer goods giant Unilever has seen its 'Path to Growth' strategy of fewer, but more heavily-promoted brands wander off track in recent months.

The Anglo-Dutch group, owner of Ben & Jerry's ice cream and Dove soap, needs a new plan to fend off competition as sales growth flags.

The group reports 2003 results on Tuesday and investors will want to know what is to succeed its restructure programme.

Also reporting this week...

Chief executive Matt Barrett slipped up with his comments on Barclaycard, but Barclaysinvestors will welcome 2003 profits of over 3.7bn on Thursday.

Having announced plans to slash 300m more from staff costs, British Airways issues third-quarter figures on Monday.

Another FTSE 100 stalwart, polish to air freshner group Reckitt Benckiser, has promised the City record full-year earnings when it reports on Wednesday.

MONDAY February 9

Finals: Diagonal, Randgold Resources, Royalblue.

Interims: Albermarle & Bond, British Airways (Q3), Cambridge Antibody Technologies (Q1).

Index of production (Dec). British Retail Consortium retail sales monitor; producer prices (Jan). Land Registry residential property prices report (Q4).

TUESDAY February 10

Finals: Alphameric, Bookham Technology, BP, Brandon Hire, BWD Securities, Dobbies Garden Centres, nCipher, Quantica, Unilever.

Interims: Compel Group, PZ Cussons, Enodis (Q1), Galen Holdings (Q1).

UK trade (Dec). Confederation of British Industry regional trends survey.

WEDNESDAY February 11

Finals: Electric Word, Liberty International, Reckitt Benckiser.

Interims: Antisoma, BSkyB (Q2), Yell Group (Q3).

Unemployment (Jan); average earnings (Oct-Dec). Bank of England quarterly inflation report.

THURSDAY February 12

Finals: Barclays, GlaxoSmithKline, London Bridge Software, Pendragon, Roll-Royce Group, Unilever.

Interims: Alumasc, McBride, Marconi Corp (Q3).

Trading update: Lastminute.com (Q1), Mitchells & Butlers.

FRIDAY February 13

Finals: Heavitree Brewery, Quarto.

Interims: Vebnet.

Please note ULVR is a thursday release not tuesday