S&P Futures

BP trading update later today but has announced it has found a new oil feed off Angola.

Thus Group is on track to meet sales growth expectations this year and is set to deliver positive operating profit in the second half of the next financial year.

FirstGroup rail and bus operator expects to meet sales and profit market estimates adding that its finance director was stepping down.

Regus reported positive 2003 earnings of 3.8 million pounds compared with a loss of 22.9 million pounds in the prior year and said trading had continued to improve going into 2004.

Pilkington said its annual operating profit would be around last year's level, in line with its expectations but trading conditions remained challenging, but that it was benefiting from an efficiency drive.

Scottish Power said it was trading in line with expectations, and added it had received 400 million pounds in cash from its hedging strategy.

Ashtead equipment hire fsaid it planned to raise 130 million pounds from a high yield bond offering, as it reported a drop in 9 month profits to 4.5 million pounds against 8.8 million previously

 James Halstead (I), Paramount (I),4imprint (F), AG Barr (F), Alexon Group (F), Chepstow Racecourse (F), Emblaze Ltd (F), Melrose Resources (F), Metal Bulletin (F), MSB (F), Orad Hi-Tec Systems (F), Wellington Holdings (F)

BP Strategy PresentationThus Group (Trading), Scottish Power (Trading)Feb consumer credit, Feb M4 money supply, Q4 produtivity

The US market starts at 3:30pm GMT

This Week

They are not yet on summer time.

Rheinmetall AG Hannover Rueckversicherungs AG Suess Microtec AG

 James Halstead (I), Paramount (I),4imprint (F), AG Barr (F), Alexon Group (F), Chepstow Racecourse (F), Emblaze Ltd (F), Melrose Resources (F), Metal Bulletin (F), MSB (F), Orad Hi-Tec Systems (F), Wellington Holdings (F)

BP Strategy PresentationThus Group (Trading), Scottish Power (Trading)Feb consumer credit Feb M4 money supply Q4 produtivity

Please note the US market starts at 3:30pm GMT not 2:30GMT

They are not yet on summer time.

Rheinmetall AG Hannover Rueckversicherungs AG Suess Microtec AG

ADVFN (I), Manchester United (I), Advanced Medical Solutions (F), Faroe Petroleum (F), Gyrus Group (F), Maiden Group (F), Mears Group (F), TT Electronics (F), Whatman (F)

Peacock Grooup (Trading)

Nationwide March House Price Survey (06:00)

15:00 Consumer Confidence Mar 86.0

Beiersdorf AG, Continental AG MAN AG, MG Technologies Wella AG, Fielmann AG Deutsche Telekom AG Stada Arzneimittel AG Singulus Technologies AG Fraport AG Fraport AG, Neopost SA

Charteris (I), Envesta (I), Aggreko (F), Baltimore Technologies (F), Bristol & London (F), Clinton Cards (F), Dana Petroleum (F), International Real Estate (F), Kesa Electricals (F), Moss Bros (F), Paramount (F), Television Corporation (F), Watermark Group (F), Wireless Group (F), Yoomedia (F),

Mothercare (Trading)

mm02 (Trading)

CBI Monthly Distributive Trades Survey (10:30)

American Greetings Corp Q4

Best Buy Company Inc Q4 Circuit City Stores Inc Q4,

Bed Bath & Beyond Inc Q4 Monsanto Company Q216:00 Chicago PMI Mar 61.0 16:00 Factory Orders Feb 1.4%

IVG Immobilien AG TUI AG

Unilog SA  

Ex Dividend: VDY  Vardy (Reg) 5.20  587.00p,  BIE  Birse Group 0.38  14.50p, ARM  ARM Holdings 0.60  116.00p, KGN  Kensington Group 7.00  481.00p,  NWF  NWF Group 4.20  490.00p, AVZ  AMVESCAP 6.50  417.50p, SHEL Shell Transport 9.65  357.50p,  DGC  Dobbies Garden Centres 5.40  467.50p, NRG  Northern Recruitment 0.85  137.50p, BDH  Brandon Hire 2.60  101.50p, BSY  British Sky Broadcasting 2.75  704.50p,  AHM Amersham 5.92  801.00p, DCM Dicom1.85  676.50p, LWB  Low & Bonar 2.70  106.00p,  DTM  Datamonitor 1.00  118.00p, JLT  Jardine Lloyd Thompson 12.00  531.00p, RCDO Ricardo Group 2.70  199.50p, SCTN Scottish & Newcastle 13.41  420.00p, SDM  Stadium Group 1.95  79.00p, THT  Thorntons 1.95  137.50p, RAC  RAC 14.60  708.00p, URM  Urbium10.00 580.00p, CPI  Capita Group 2.70  302.25p, DGG  Domestic & General Group 7.46  626.50p, LGEN Legal & General Group 3.33  97.25p,  EXL  Exel 16.80  714.50p, MGGT Meggitt 5.10  241.00p, ARI  Arriva 13.40  380.25p, INM  Incisive Media 1.00  130.00p, JSG  Johnson Service Group 13.60  396.50p, MNGS Manganese Bronze Holdings 1.00  229.50p, WTM  Waterman Group 1.90  79.50p, ROK  Rok Property Solutions 4.65  399.00p, BPP  BPP Holdings 9.35  344.00p, STW  Staffware 5.00  595.00p, WGC  Wyevale Garden Centres 5.53  366.50p, KGF  Kingfisher 6.15  290.50p, TIK  Tikit Group 1.05  137.50p, ELCO Eleco Holdings 0.38  32.50p,

Alizyme (F), Christie Group (F), IFG Group (F), UCM Group (F),

Capital Radio (Trading)

CBI Monthly Distributive Trades Survey (10:30)

CIPS manufacturing index (08:30) UK's Treasury questions in House of Commons (10:30)

Goodyear Q4

18:00 Auto Sales Mar - 5.5M 18:00 Truck Sales Mar 7.9M 14:30 Initial Claims 03/27 340K 16:00 Construction Spending Feb 0.1% 16:00 ISM Index Mar 59.8

Hugo Boss AG Aareal Bank AG

Scor SA

Cluff Mining (F), Goshawk Insurance Holdings (F)

Northern Rock (Trading)

CIPS construction index (08:30)

18:00 Core PPI Feb 0.1% 18:00 PPI Feb 0.4% 14:30 Average Workweek 33.8 14:30 Hourly Earnings 0.2% 14:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Mar 100K 14:30 Unemployment Rate Mar 5.6%

Provisional Calendar For Equities  The Week Following  5th April - 9th April

Burren Energy (F), Chaucer Holdings (F), Havelock Europa (F), Zi Medical (F),

Bellway (I), Fibernet (I), Premier Direct (I),Corin Group (F), DataCash (F), Fibernet (F), Highbury House (F), Kiln (F), Regal Petroleum (F),

Beattie (J) (F), Brammer (F), Kiln (F),

DVSG Davis Service Group (The) 10.60 372.00p, PFG Provident Financial 19.90 743.00p, PTD Pittards 0.50 48.00p, WHI WH Ireland Group 0.75 80p

Trading Thoughts For The Week Ahead  -  Sunday 15th February

A quieter week ahead after the flood of corporate results and last weeks fireworks from Boots and Sainsbury. However trading updates BP, mmO2 , Northern Rock and Scottish Power should keep the market buzzing!MondayAlexon shoes and clothing had good January sales following a weak Xmas. Despite this look for profits of 32.5m up from 30.1m last year following cost cutting Paramount owners of Groupe Chez Gerard, Livebait, Cafe Fish and Bertorelli may show an improvement after refurbishments and disposal of non-core sites show signs of paying off over the Christmas period. The last set of annual figures were disappointing with losses of 800,000 against profits of 26,000 a year earlier. I recently had lunch in Groupe Chez Gerard in London and was not impressed!Gyrus healthcare devices group which specialises in products to reduce trauma and complications in surgery will unveil its first set of results. This could be an interesting small company to watch with sales expected at 78m and 8 million profit despite weakness in the U.S dollar.BP are believed to be presenting a strategy presentation where interest will be on the company's oil reserves following the recent shocks at ShellThus, the recovery telecom company, is due to issue a trading update.

Tuesday

Manchester United's recent lack of form on the field should be offset by a healthy set of financial results. Analysts expect the 6 month figures for the six months to show a rise in profits to 20.8m despite fewer matches. The financial impact of the club's second round exit from the lucrative Champions League is also likely to be a concern for investors and could lead to a fall in the share price. However there are plenty of takeover rumours here!GfK survey of UK consumer confidence figures.

Wednesday

Kesa report the first annual results sine the demerger from B&Q retailer Kingfisher and are expected to report a rise in annual profits from 137m to 174m. The UK comet electrical chain & Darty in France are expected to report an increase in Sales however the French BUT furniture chain business may have declined. Warranty sales could be an important factor also the increasing competition makes me wonder if this could be a good short.Clinton Cards should produce a good rise in profits to 27.5m, up from 24.5m a year earlier benefiting from expanded outlets now numbering 700. Dana Petroleum is expected to post a substantial rise in annual profits to 32m.Capital Radio is set for a trading update following a recent statement when it said it had seen an improvement in the advertising market over the Christmas period. It added that revenues in February and March should also show modest growth. Get ready for the U.S factory orders and a Chicago purchasing managers' update mmO2 provide an update on trading after it has recently been the focus of intense bid speculation and is facing competition from rival 3UK.

Thursday

Carphone Warehouse provide a trading update after it recently announced free phone calls for subscribers to its talktalk service and after saying its mobile phone trading in the third quarter had exceeded expectations.

Friday

Northern Rock mortgage specialist should report good trading beating market expectations but watch out for a possible negative outlook as it gives clues on the health of Britain's housing marketWatch out for a possible big move on the DOW as the U.S. non-farm payroll numbers are released.

Thoughts

Markets seem to have reached a high for for the time being as people start to believe that stock prices have factored in all the positive news from the recent economic recovery. The US payroll & manufacturing figures next week will show if the economic recovery remains on track and may well prove to be crucial for market direction.

The 10 Day Intraday FTSE chart (Above) has been very useful for me this week in predicting when to close long & shorts positions. It certainly did bounce off support as suggested last week and has amazingly defied the Dow's excess's of the previous evening in predicting the direction of UK markets.

Last week I used the 6 month support to predict a bounce back in the DOW which obligingly occurred (Small chart left). My long was looking very healthy until the last hour of trading when  a sudden dop lost 60 points of my gains. It was so fast I never had chance to get out!

Looking forward the FTSE is on 10 day resistance so may find it difficult to make further gains at the start of the week.

The U.S chart to the right uses some of the ideas from our friend Tom Hougaard to show the regular patterns on the DOW. He uses the 500 day cycle whereas I am using a tighter 8 month pattern on a 5 year chart. This shows that we could still be in a 5 year downtrend and are 2 months in to a 4 month fall before a recovery starting in June. If this is correct we could look for a quick fall possibly below 9500 before starting the recovery phase of the 8 month trend.

Wishing you good trading for the week ahead!

As always I look forward to your thoughts and comments on the week ahead! 

All the above comments are purely a personal opinion and no investment advice is intended.  Please do your own research.

Sunday Newspapers

British firms are expected to sign significant deals with Libya following the historic handshake between Tony Blair and Colonel Gaddafi.Trade Secretary Patricia Hewitt says firms will make deals in industries such as oil, health and education in a bid to help the country make improvements to human rights.

Boots, Britain's leading health and beauty retailer has announced the creation of 3,000 new jobs as it plans to set up a further 60 stores.

GKN Vital Statistics New wells prosper, Melrose Resources ITV Allen bounces back and with a good tale to tell Why auditors closed the door on Shell Vodafone director makes a good call GKN Sir David Lees's working day HBOS Watching the killers RAB Capital Buds of recovery will not shrivel in heat of conflict Sharewatch: Peterhouse HBOS Value of housing stock doubles Working Space GKN Courts Shares recover from lowest level this year Sainsbury Lees speaks out on board rows

'I don't want to flagellate myself' Sainsbury Can Evans restore Merlin's magic? Ark Therapeutics Sainsbury's for sale Talking the Talk Talk, Carphone Warehouse

BP to splurge on share buybacks

OBSERVER Sky set to take control of horseracing on TV Share bonanza for Sainsburys Investors to grill BP on oil reserves WPP Investor fury as Sorrell seeks 34m payout Now Manchester United fail to score in City

BP Rocket man ready for lift-off Is Sainsbury being led into Green pastures? De Vere rebels with a cause

Check out those pensions, Marks & Spencer Group

MAIL ON SUNDAY Severn Trent, Water boss 'flouts FTSE guideline' Bosses confront fat-cat rebels, Governance showdown looms High Street gloom takes its toll Unilever boss attacks City culture, FitzGerald fires parting shot

Baltimore to fight predator Bank giant extols Eden virtue, Lehman takes chunk of tiny broker Vision has Ford in sights, In-car systems firm to reveal deal EU power 'a threat to loans', Laws threaten mortgage chaos

The Business:  INKJET print heads developer Xaar has disappointed investors in the past but a new management team appears to have built good foundations for the business. A deal with one of the world's largest imaging firms Agfa augurs well. Shares are a speculative buy at 75p

INDEPENDENT  BAE Systems British firms eye dividend of diplomacy with Libya Sarbanes-Oxley may force out Shell duo

Trocadero, the casino royale? London Clubs International Sainsbury's needs its Kingpin to show Sir Peter the door

The Week Ahead: All hands to the pumps: Opec is set to end crude guesswork Baltimore Technologies  

SCOTLAND ON SUNDAY  Baltimore in bid to fight off vulture fund Acquisitor Forth Ports 'We are interested in buying Teesport' Royal Bank pay differentials anger workers Glaxo in talks to break into Chinese market Union warns of resignations as Royal Bank pay differentials anger workers

RBOS, HBOS Bankers' attire is a weighty issue Royal Bank of Scotland Bankers' attire is a weighty issue

John Lewis to launch credit card with HSBC Wiseman Dairies ready to milk latest product  

SUNDAY EXPRESS S

INVESTORS CHRONICLE Tips: Buy - Jarvis (JRVS), Geest (GET), UK Coal (UKC), Montpellier (MPL), America Mineral Fields (AMZ), Intellexis (ILX).Tip Updates: Buy - 1st Dental (FDT), Air Music & Media (AMU). Kewill (KWL). Sell - MyTravel (MT), Northern Foods (NFDS).Company Results: Buy John Laing (LNGO) - HIT Entertainment (HTE) - Barratt Developments (BDEV) - Forth Ports (FPT) - Enterprise (ETI) - Lok'n Store (LOK)

SHARES MAGAZINE Plays of the Week: Buy America Mineral Fields (AMZ) at 91.5p - Anglo-Eastern Plantations (AEP) at 180.05p - Xaar (XAR) at 70p - Angle (AGL) at 148.5p.Updates: Sell NSB Retail Systems (NSB), Hold Intelligent Environments (IEN) and Pennant International (PEN).

BROKERS THOUGHTS / 22nd 26th March  

Friday, 26 March INVESTEC raised its rating on global miner Anglo American to 'buy' from 'hold', as it upped profit forecasts on all four major London-listed mining groups. The brokerage upgraded commodity price forecasts, leading it to increase forecasts of net* profits, before exceptionals, by 6-20% at Anglo American, BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Xstrata. It rated all four stocks as 'buy'. GOLDMAN Sachs raised its rating on business parks operator Slough Estates to 'outperform*' from 'in-line'. Goldman said it was making the move to take advantage of the stock's weakness after Slough's recent earnings release. MERRILL Lynch raised its rating on construction and engineering services firm AMEC to 'buy' from 'neutral' following recent contract awards in Iraq. Merrill said in a note it was also upgrading its operating and pre-tax profit estimates by around 10% in 2004-05. SMITH Barney raised its price target on Brambles Industries, the world's largest pallet supplier, to 'buy' from 'hold', dealers said on Friday. Dealers said Smith Barney had raised its price target on the Sydney and London-listed firm to A$6.40 a share from A$5.43, saying its US-based CHEP business was finally in a position to deliver sustainable profit growth. MORGAN Stanley raised its target on hedge fund Man Group to 1830p a share from 1770p on the back of a strong performance and lower redemptions. LEHMAN Brothers also raised its price target on Man Group, to 2200p a share from 1850p, keeping its 'overweight*' rating on the stock. SMITH Barney cut its rating on health and beauty retailer Boots Group to 'sell' from 'hold' and its target to 625p a share from 700p. Merrill Lynch also cut its target on Boots, to 770p a share from 810p and lowered earnings estimates for 2004-05 and the following year. CSFB raised its target price on Signet, the world's largest jewellery retailer, to 120p a share from 110p, and kept its 'outperform' rating on the stock. The investment bank also raised its pre-tax profit forecast for the current financial year by 5m ($9m) to 220m, and by 5.4m to 240m for the following year.  

Thursday, 25 March SMITH Barney, raised its price target on British housebuilder Barratt Developments to 650p a share from 500p. JP Morgan slashed its 2004 earnings forecasts for British life assurer Legal & General by 29%, saying the company was most exposed to increased life expectancy. In a review of the UK insurance sector after data indicated people may live longer than was previously thought, the investment bank said Legal & General was the most exposed to this risk. The bank also cut earnings estimates for rival Aviva by 7% for this year and for Friends Provident by 9%. It added that Prudential was relatively immune as its Asian business continues to expand quickly. NUMIS raised its rating on Next to 'add' from 'hold', after Britain's third-biggest clothing retailer posted a forecast-beating 17% rise in annual profits. The broker raised its target price on the stock to 1510p a share, from 1350p. NUMIS also raised its rating on Man Group to 'add' from 'hold' after the world's largest listed hedge fund manager* forecast pre-tax profits markedly over market expectations. It raised its price target on the stock to 1800p a share from 1470p. DEUTSCHE Bank raised its target on Xstrata to 'buy' from 'hold' because it said the London-listed miner was well-placed to gain from increased commmodity prices. The bank also raised its price target on the stock to 800p a share from 700p.  

Wednesday, 24 March NUMIS raised its rating on Barratt Developments to 'add' from 'hold' after the housebuilder beat expectations with a 35% rise in first-half profit. Numis also raised its price target on Barratt to 660p per share from 620p. BRIDGEWELL also upgraded its rating on Barratt, to 'neutral' from 'underweight', saying the company had produced a strong set of results across its entire business. CSFB raised its rating on metals and chemicals firm Johnson Matthey to 'outperform' from 'neutral', keeping its 975p a share price target. 'We believe that a confluence of negative factors, and in particular concern at growth prospects in the Pharmaceutical Materials division, has presented a cheap entry point for investors in a stock which, in our view, has the best business model in the sector,' CSFB said in a research note. MORGAN Stanley cut its rating on British American Tobacco to 'equal weight' from 'overweight', as it raised price targets on it and other tobacco stocks. Morgan Stanley raised its price target on BAT, the world's second-biggest cigarette maker, 9% to 930p a share. It said BAT had strong long-term prospects but saw short-term risks from US merger reviews and a potential revial of tobacco lawsuits. The bank said its favoured tobacco stock remained Imperial Tobacco and raised its price target on Imperial by 12% to 1,400p, keeping an 'overweight' rating on the stock. NUMIS raised its price target on Ted Baker to 435p from 415p after the fashion chain had posted a 265% jump in annual profits. Numis also said it had a 'hold' rating on the stock. SMITH Barney cut its price target on banking group HSBC to 750p a share from 775p, and kept its 'sell' rating on the stock. DEUTSCHE Bank raised its rating on the world's second-biggest brewer, SABMiller, to 'hold' from 'sell', and had lifted its price target to 570p a share from 480p. UBS also raised its price target on SABMiller, to 590p a share from 560p, and kept its 'hold' rating on the stock. The bank said it had upgraded its price target after making a 2% increase in earnings-per-share estimates. LEHMAN Brothers raised its rating on life assurer Legal & General to 'overweight' from 'underweight' and increased its price target on the stock to 114p from 102p. HSBC upgraded Britain's fifth-biggest bank Lloyds TSB to 'add' from 'reduce' and also raised its price target on the stock to 460p from 440p. Dealers said HSBC upgraded the stock because capital fears at Lloyds TSB were overdone and the shares were attractively valued.  

Tuesday, 23 March DEUTSCHE Bank cut its rating on music and book retailer HMV Group to 'hold' from 'buy', and raised its price target to 235p from 205p. DEUTSCHE Bank also raised its target price for plumbing and heating equipment supplier Wolseley to 770p from 685p and retained a 'hold' recommendation. INVESTEC raised its rating on department store firm House of Fraser to 'hold' from 'reduce'. Investec said in a note it believed the firm's earnings stream to be improving against a background of lower cost pressures and new store/loyalty initiatives over the next 12 months. GOLDMAN Sachs started coverage of British utility Northumbrian Water Group with an 'in-line' rating. TEATHER & Greenwood raised its rating for accountancy software company Sage Group to 'buy' from 'hold'. Teather added it had a fair value target of 190p. 'The combination of new geographical and vertical markets opened up through acquisition, coupled with the cross-selling, upgrade support revenue potential already present through the installed base, represents an attractive proposition,' Teather said in a research note. UBS upped its rating on Hit Entertainment, the media firm behind children's character Bob the Builder, to 'buy' from 'neutral'. UBS kept its target of 355p. UBS also raised its target on food supplier Northern Foods to 170p from 155p. Traders said the bank had a 'neutral' rating on Northern, which supplies own-label food to retailers such as Marks & Spencer. LEHMAN Brothers raised its price target for caterer Compass Group to 480p from 420p, and had kept its 'overweight' rating on the stock. 'We expect Friday's trading update to be a confident assessment of the group's current prospects: at least 6%organic growth and good margin progress,' Lehman said in a note. UBS raised its rating on 3i to 'buy' from 'neutral' and increased its fair value on the private equity investor group to 685p per share from 655p. MERRILL Lynch downgraded consumer products giant Unilever to 'neutral' from 'buy'.

Monday, 22 March CSFB raised its target price for telecoms equipment maker Marconi to 700p a share from 630p and retained a 'neutral' rating. It also raised its earnings per share* estimates for 2005 and 2006 to 11p and 35p from 6p and 28p respectively. UBS raised its price target for property firm Canary Wharf to 292p a share from 275p, and had kept its 'neutral' rating on the stock. On Friday a Morgan Stanley-led consortium raised its offer for Canary Wharf to 292p per share, trumping an earlier 275p offer by Canadian conglomerate Brascan. The company has recommended shareholders vote in favour. GOLDMAN Sachs raised its stance on Tesco, Britain's biggest grocer, to 'outperform' from 'in-line'. PANMURE Gordon, part of Lazard, raised its rating on waste management firm Shanks to 'buy' from 'hold' and upped its target price to 145p from 125p.