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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday 24th May (MKS)     

Crocodile - 23 May 2004 15:33

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Day 2 Day 5 Day US News

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S&P Futures

Nikkei +31 Hang Seng +49  Asia News

  DAX    CAC     Euro News

European airlines should rise falling a drop in the price of oil.

Burberry's full-year profit rose 21 percent to 141.2 million pounds. Total sales rose 15 percent following the opening of new stores and added new lines to the range.

Kidde British fire-fighting equipment maker said it had won a $250 million deal over 20 years to provide the complete fire protection package for the new Boeing 7E7 Dreamliner programme.

EMI profit fell 8.7 percent to 163.3 million pound, turnover fell 2.5 percent to 2.12 billion pounds both figures beating market expectations. The company said it was confident for the next year with an improvement in the music industry.

Microscience, vaccine development company said it planned to raise about 40 million pounds from listing its shares in London next month, which should value the firm at up to 140 million pounds.

ukf.gif Calendar:  United Kingdom usf.gif  United States (GMT) euro.gif  Europe & World (GMT)

 Connaught (I), Dawson Holdings (I), Get Group (I), Medisys (I), Alterian (F), BSS Group (F), Burberry (F), Detica (F), EMI (F), Merchant Retail (F), Prelude Trust (F), Torotrak (F), Uniq (F), Virtue Broadcasting (F), AG Barr (AGM), Marlborough Stirling (AGM),

Campbell Soup, Medtronic, Novell

WCM Beteiligungs AG

Data Download

FTSE Intraday

Calendar

US Zone

HTML Edit

Currency Calc

Dividends

Director Dealings

Broker Upgrades / Tips

David@SnappyTrader.com   www.SnappyTrader.com

Pre Market Futures

FTSE +6

DAX+6

DOW+24

S&P+3.3

Nasdaq+5

Crocodile - 23 May 2004 15:33 - 2 of 15

ukf.gif  United Kingdom  - Calendar: 24th - 28th May usf.gif United States (GMT) euro.gif Europe & World (GMT)

 Connaught (I), Dawson Holdings (I), Get Group (I), Medisys (I), Alterian (F), BSS Group (F), Burberry (F), Detica (F), EMI (F), Merchant Retail (F), Prelude Trust (F), Torotrak (F), Uniq (F), Virtue Broadcasting (F), AG Barr (AGM), Marlborough Stirling (AGM),  

Campbell Soup, Medtronic, Novell

WCM Beteiligungs AG

Hardys & Hansons (I), RM Group (I), British Land (F), EMAP (F), GB Group (F), Great Portland Estates (F), GUS (F), GWR Group (F), Marchpole Holdings (F), Marks & Spencer Group (F), Scottish Power (F), South Staffordshire (F), Vodafone (F), Brammer (AGM), Corin Group (AGM), Kerry Group'a' (AGM), Rexam (AGM), UCM Group (AGM)

April Motor Vehicle Production (08:30) Q1 Provisional Business Investment (08:30)

HJ Heinz

16.00 Consumer Confidence 16.00 Existing Home Sales

QSC AG

Topps Tiles (I),Aegis Group (F), Bristol and West Investments (F), Business Serve (F), Electrocomponents (F), Great Portland Estates (F), Homeserve (F), Kelda (F), Pilkington (F), Protherics (F), Scapa Group (F), Shanks (F), Sondex (F), Aegis Group (AGM), Bodycote (AGM), Hardy Underwriting (AGM), ICI (AGM), Invesco Perpetual UK Sm Cos (AGM), Kesa Electricals (AGM),

Q1 GDP First Revision (08:30)

AutoZone

13:30 Durable Orders 16.00 New Home Sales

Bilfinger Berger AG MLP AG

Alstom

Ex Dividend: AGV Aberdeen Growth VCT I 41.00p 0.57p 1.39%, AXO Axon Group 117.00p 1.50p 1.28%, BEZ Beazley Group 96.00p 0.50p 0.52%, BMY Bloomsbury Publishing 250.00p 1.68p 0.67%, CAP Capital Radio 466.00p 6.00p 1.29%, DCC 13.03p 20.65c 1.58%, DKL Dickinson Legg Group 24.50p 2.00p 8.16%, DVR De Vere Group 432.00p 4.28p 0.99%, FUL Fulcrum Pharma 8.25p 0.20p 2.42%, GET Geest 495.00p 12.90p 2.61%, HTL Huntleigh Technology 357.50p 3.30p 0.92%, KLR Keller Group 232.50p 6.95p 2.99%, LSC London Security 1425.00p 10.00p 0.70%, MAB Mitchells & Butlers 250.00p 2.85p 1.14%, MFI MFI Furniture Group 148.75p 2.00p 1.34%, MKLW Mucklow (A & J) Group 295.00p 5.40p 1.83%, NAE Nord Anglia Education 235.00p 1.43p 0.61%, NXT Next 1412.00p 24.00p 1.70%, PFL Premier Farnel 244.50p 5.00p 2.04%, PNS Panther Securities 223.50p 4.00p 1.79%, SBRY Sainsbury (J) 273.00p 11.36 4.16%, SEO Stanelco 5.63p 0.01p 0.18%, SLH Shiloh 130.00p 3.85p 2.96%, SMWH W H Smith 358.00p 4.00p 1.12%, TNN Taylor Nelson Sofres 201.25p 2.05p 1.02%, TWOD Taylor Woodrow 261.50p 6.50p 2.49%, UDG United Drug 176.00p 1.32c 0.51%, UTF Ultraframe121.25p 3.24p 2.67%,

Euromoney Institutional Investor (I),Boots (F), Celsis (F), City Lofts Group (F), Courts (F), Dairy Crest (F), Investec (F), Pennon (F), Pillar Property (F), The Big Food Group (F), Young and Co 'A' (F),

Alexon Group (AGM), Austin Reed (AGM), Brit Insurance (AGM), Clinton Cards (AGM), Michael Page (AGM), Nestor Healthcare (AGM), Oystertec (AGM), Pilat Media Global (AGM), Rentokil Initial (AGM), Woolworths Group (AGM & Trading), Tullow Oil (EGM), Barclays (Trading)

CBI Monthly Industrial Trends Survey (10:00) CBI Quarterly Economic Forecast (10:00)

Brown-Formanrp Costco Wholesalerp Dollar Generalrp (Tennessee)

14.30 Chain Deflator-Prel. 14.30 GDP-Prel. 14.30 Initial Claims

Suedzucker AG, Beru AG

Casino, Guichard-Perrachon

Infogrames Entertainment

Technip

Euronext NV

Eldridge Pope (I),Fuller Smith and Turner (F), Plasmon (F), Axon (AGM), HSBC (AGM), Network Limited (AGM), Peter Hambro Mining (AGM), Prezzo (AGM), Royal and Sun Alliance (AGM), Ulster Tv (AGM), Anite (Trading)

BBA April Mortgage Lending (08:30)

14.30 Personal Income 14.30 Personal Spending 14.45 Mich Sentiment-Rev.

V

Provisional Calendar For UK Equities The Week Following 31st May - 4th June

R

WS Holdings, SCI Entertainment (I), Synstar (I), Domestic and General (F),  Eckoh Technologies (F), Eircom (F), Ryanair Holdings (F),

Cobra Bio-Manufacturing (I),  AWG (F), Cable and Wireless (F), Expro International (F), Maelor (F), Mears Group (F), Northern Foods (F), Peacock Group (F), Umeco (F), Volex (F),

Top Ex Dividend:  TON Titon Holdings 90.00p 2.30p 2.56%, HHO Highbury House Communications 19.00p 0.49p 2.58%, TLT Tolent 106.50p 2.75p 2.58%, BXTN Brixton 275.00p 7.25p 2.64%,MSLH Marshalls 278.00p 7.35p 2.64%, NGT National Grid Transco 423.75p 11.78p 2.78%, CRDA Croda International 273.00p 7.83p  2.87%, PNB Pubs 'N' Bars 41.50p 1.25p 3.01%, MNZS Menzies (John) 417.50p 12.60p 3.02%, JCKS Jacks (William) 81.50p 2.50p 3.07%, FDL Findel 368.00p 11.40p 3.10%, SLNG Slingsby (H C) 837.50p 30.00p 3.58%, ARD Austin Reed Group 144.00p 5.50p 3.82%, MAL Malcolm Group 82.50p 3.30p 4.00%,SUS S & U 517.50p 21.00p 4.06%, RDM Radamec Group 38.00p 2.00p 5.26%,

Daily Mail & General Trust (I), Applied Optical Technologies (F), Carphone Warehouse (F), FKI (F), Genus (F), Johnson Matthey (F), Oxford Instruments (F), Speedy Hire (F), Wagon (F),

Hornby (F),  

 

Trading Thoughts For The Week Ahead  - Sunday 23rd May

Plenty of FTSE100 fun this week with several of the Uk's top companies such as Marks & Spencer & Vodaphone reporting.Mondayftse3.gifEMI recently said the global music market is in decline so expect a fall in sales at its recorded music division although its music publishing arm should have proved more resilient. With restructuring costs due to outsourcing the market expects annual profits falling to 165m from a total of 177m a year earlierBurberry is likely to have increased total sales by 13% to boost annual profits to 809m from 571m a year ago. The question is can it forecast the growth continuing!Tuesday

Emap recently had its expectations upgraded following successful magazine launches such as Closer and its most recent magazine launch, men's magazine Zoo. These should help propel full-year revenues higher, with growth of 9% anticipated. The city is looking for annual profits of 195m compared with 175m a year earlierGUS should not have any bad surprises with sales growth of 12% forecast at catalogue retailer Argos following a particularly strong performance from consumer electronics, photography, furniture and homeware. Also its credit-checking arm Experian is set to deliver a 10% increase in sales.Marks & Spencer recently issued a downbeat trading statement with the clothing market and now the food retail sector under pressure. This may lead to results at the lower end of market expectations. Look for final profits of 755m, 10% higher on a year earlier and also how chief executive Roger Holmes' plans to resurrect growth. M&S could also unveil four new womenswear brands said to be Signature, Piece-by-Piece, Aimee and Classics.

Vodaphone have a good chance of beating consensus forecasts of profits of 10.1bn, up from 8.4bn a year earlier as European results in the sector have recently beaten expectations. This is despite a poor performance from the group's Japanese business. Also they may announce a bumper dividend after after the failed bid for AT&T WirelessBritish Land is reporting final results which should be good after Land securities reported strong results last week.Wednesday

Topps Tiles are expected to produce figures as they forecast themselves recently "significantly ahead" of expectations. Investor swill be looking to see that the same can be maintained for the second half. ftse2.gifThursday

Boots is set to post flat annual profits of around 568m but the focus will be on its future business plan following an earlier announcement that margin pressure and an increase in pensions charges will wipe 110m off profits. The city will be looking to see how it can fight off the growing threat of a price war in healthcare products from the supermarket chains.Woolworths, There has been some speculative buying in over the last 2 weeks (I do hold shares in this company) so a trading update and the AGM could prove to be interesting. Dairy Crest report full year figures after a warning earlier this year about slowing cheese sales

Barclays Bank trading update follows last month's AGM where it said it had made a strong start to 2004The market may well be interested in the UK consumer confidence survey figures

 

Friday

Eldridge Pope pub operator releases full year results which are expected not to be pretty after the group said it was facing "extremely challenging" conditions last month.

In the U.S we have three important reports, the National Association of Purchasing Management-New York releases its May index of manufacturing activity; the University of Michigan gives its final May consumer sentiment reading, and the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for May comes out.

Thoughts

Oil prices will probably dominate the worlds markets for some weeks to come. The mood at the start of next week could depend on the outcome of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries meeting this weekend. Analysts will be looking for early signs in economic data that the rising prices have slowed down spending on goods We are a period with a lot of trading uncertainty, but I feel that next weeks corporate results may lift the FTSE higher. On the chart we have no blobs,  lines, squares or eggs just a straightforward trend on the 1 year FTSE which really talks for itself.  If the oil prices start to come down then we could see the FTSE gain 10% very quickly. If it breaks support we may need parachutes.

As always I look forward to your thoughts and comments on wish you good trading for the week ahead.

David David@SnappyTrader.com www.SnappyTrader.com

All the above comments are purely a personal opinion and no investment advice is intended. Please do your own research.

Crocodile - 23 May 2004 15:34 - 3 of 15

sundaypaper.gifSunday Newspapers  The spiralling cost of petrol will be top of the agenda at a meeting of finance leaders in New York.Chancellor Gordon Brown will be among those attending the crucial G8 talks. Homeowners are being warned that a sharp hike in interest rates could be looming in a bid to prevent a property market crash.The Council of Mortgage Lenders represents banks and building societies.

SUNDAY TIMES  Business Digest British Airways Savills homes in on Smith New Rentokil boss to examine break-up of 2.7bn group Rentokil Initial Inside the City: John Waples: Reinvigorated BT must sprint to stand still Inside the city, BT Group Buisiness Digest, Pennon Food sales slump adds to M&S woes

Sharewatch: Eidos Tesco , Davis beats Leahy on pay BT Group, Irish Business Digest Should you buy shares in C&C? Northern Rock, Banks fail to pass on full rate rise Irish Business Digest, mmO2

C&C Group , And Finally ... McDonnell can call on old pal Spollen in AIB probe

Petrel Resources, Irish oil minnow tenders for lucrative Iraqi deals Baltimore Tech, McDonnell can call on old pal Spollen in AIB probe Media News Billboard: TV3 still in the way as UTV reaches for the Sky Digital ITV Green suffers UCI setback Irish Business Digest, Irish Life & Permanent And Finally ... McDonnell can call on old pal Spollen in AIB probe Sharewatch: BT Directors' deals: Shopping centre boss goes on a spree, Liberty International Sainsbury, Davis beats Leahy on pay Should you buy shares in Inchcape? Sharewatch: ScottishPower Bank of Ireland Bank chases more postal deals Abbey National, Banks fail to pass on full rate rise William Lewis: Rentokil boss just became too much of a pest Tycoons await Man United response

Inchcape, a company that imports, distributes and sells vehicles in partnership with carmakers including Toyota and BMW, has a strong balance sheet and plenty of scope for acquisitions. The stock - currently at 1575p - is rated as a buy by Tim Steer, fund manager* at New Star.

SUNDAY TELEGRAPH

Shell gives Watts a 1m farewell Shell Transport GUS plots big Argos split Pennon gets its hands on Shanks International Power in 300m sell-off talks

Rentokil Initial, Toppling of Thompson Celltech, A bitter pill for Britain O2's happy illusion BT's brave new world Jonny lends Boots a touch of class

 mmO2 encouraged the City last week with full-year pre-tax profits of 95m and a promise to be debt-free within 18 months. With customer numbers on a promising trend, shares look enticing at 94.25p. Investec has been hit by fears that it is vulnerable to the weaker rand, given that half its earnings come from South Africa. However, shares - at 975p - now appear oversold, particularly in light of a strong performance in investment banking.

OBSERVER  

Sales slide again at M&S BA wages long-haul price war Sainsbury Shareholder revolt over Davis's sticky fingers Investors tell ITV to ditch Allen for Dyke Man U bows to Irish on player deals

M&s Per Una makes City curious about George British Land, Game's up for Ritblat Jarvis threatens to derail Norris On your marks, Marks & Spencer Group

Amec and Koreans in $1bn Iraq deal Vodafone cuts losses and boosts dividend

MAIL ON SUNDAY

Tough week ahead for M&S chief Vodafone to announce record profit Snubbed BSkyB chief 'set to quit' BA double-crossing UK customers ITV's Allen under fire on performance  

Lloyds plans 1bn IT deal Too slow: Legal & General faces new fine Sainsbury, Stores to launch price cut campaigns Hilton takes a new punt on casinos Ex Rentokil boss warns: I'll sue

INDEPENDENT '

Time's up' for chief of Jarvis Powergen boss hits out over emissions targets HSBC in $7bn New York banking community bid MmO2 pleads for more time to roll out 3G service Highland Gold Mining, Abramovich faces fraud probe over sale of gold mine Pennon Terra Firma gives up in battle for British waste M&S and Sainsbury's shopping for Sir Clive Japan threatens Vodafone's plans for global mobile phone domination

Rentokil , When the old boss hangs around, the only way is down Marks & Spencer Group Will it be love at first sight in franchising? Sainsbury When the old boss hangs around, the only way is down For two decades he turned pests into profits. So why was 'Mr 20 per cent' Rentokilled off? Vodafone, The investment tourists: America just loves our quaint British companies LSE, When the old boss hangs around, the only way is down M&S The investment tourists: America just loves our quaint British companies British Land The investment tourists: America just loves our quaint British companies

SCOTLAND ON SUNDAY

Cassani a 'dark horse' for M&S ScottishPower nears $1bn US profit target War is out, celebrities are in as Mirror hints at change John Wood Group Pouring oil on troubled water

BT, Microsoft pilot broadband drive in Scotland Celltech takeover is bittersweet pill for bioscience sector SMG set to announce new chairman Vodafone on right lines to confound critics

THE BUSINESS UK COAL, Britain's largest coal mining company, is currently trading at 145.5p, although Durlacher's Aim bulletin has a target of 200p with scope for further growth over the long-term because of rising dividends*, the higher coal price and property development potential.
Sunday Express: Man has continued to impress despite expectations that hedge funds* will become less attractive as the economy improves. Recent results beat hopes with Teather & Greenwood rating shares as a buy at 1633p.

INVESTORS CHRONICLE Tips: Buy French Connection (FCCN) at 425p - Vantis (VTS) at 112p - Delcam (DLC) at 204p and OMG (OMG) at 21p. Sell Lloyds TSB (LLOY) at 418p and Ultraframe (UTF) at 127p.

Beat the Crash: Chemring (CHG) - Dixons Group (DXNS) - GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) - Renishaw (RSW).

Updates: Buy Churchill China (CHH) and Monterrico Metals (MNA).William Hill (WMH) is good value.LogicaCMG (LOG) is fairly priced.

Company Results:Buy Cranswick (CWK) - VT Group (VTG) - BAA (BAA). Sell Enterprise Inns (ETI).

SHARES MAGAZINE Plays of the Week:Buy UK Coal (UKC) at 145p - Alliance Unichem (AUN) at 595p - Prezzo (PRZ) at 110p - First Derivatives (FDP) at 81.5p.

Updates:Buy Abbeycrest (ACR).Hold Zytronic (ZYT). Take profits in First Quantum Minerals (FQM).

Extreme Times call for Defensive Measures:  National Grid Transco (NGT) - Scottish & Southern Energy (SSE) - Smith & Nephew (SN) - Tesco (TSCO) - Tate & Lyle (TATE) - BATs (BAT).

David@SnappyTrader.com   www.SnappyTrader.com

Fundamentalist - 23 May 2004 19:13 - 4 of 15

Thanks as always Croc, hope all have had a good weekend in the sun and ready for the market tomorrow.

daves dazzlers - 23 May 2004 22:36 - 5 of 15

cheers croc much appreciated,looking forward to good times this week. m&s, pilks, big food, woolworths{yes}. gains in america for sure.

amberjane - 23 May 2004 23:10 - 6 of 15

Yes thanks croc, looks a more interesting week ahead.

kantona - 23 May 2004 23:30 - 7 of 15

many thx croc

Mega Bucks - 24 May 2004 07:03 - 8 of 15

morning campers,

long arm bby cs ctm mks tsco wlw dax nas s&p ....

hope you all have a great day making shed loads of money!!!!!

Mega...

Crocodile - 24 May 2004 07:39 - 9 of 15

Morning all, placing a FTSE long at +6. Also will look at BAY where I expect a 6 point+ rise.

Insider trader - 24 May 2004 08:24 - 10 of 15

Morning all. I have seen a Double bottom on the Dow (weekly chart) and also on a Point & Figure chart. I read this as a possible move to 10300 which coincides with the R3 of the weekly pivot level. All imho dyor etc.

little woman - 24 May 2004 08:32 - 11 of 15

Morning all

One good thing about all this uncertainty is that spending is going down which has got to be a good thing.

jj50 - 24 May 2004 09:07 - 12 of 15

Morning all - thanks croc.

little woman - 24 May 2004 11:51 - 13 of 15

I feeling quite positive about this week. I have found the market drops slightly on the last 1-2 days of each month. Then goes back up early in the month.

S&P futures are up.

little woman - 24 May 2004 13:52 - 14 of 15

And the PRESS does it again!

Reports in the weekend press that the Council of Mortgage Lenders is calling for interest rates to double to avoid a housing-market crash appear to be rather alarmist and misleading.

Yesterday, the Sunday Telegraph reported that the CML's chief, Michael Coogan, thought that the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) needed to increase interest rates to at least 8% in order to prevent house prices spiralling out of control and then crashing. He was quoted as saying that it may already be too late for the MPC to influence the housing market with small tweaks to interest rates.


This morning, the CML is claiming that Michael Coogan did not give an interview to the Sunday Telegraph, let alone one suggesting that interest rates need to double or are likely to double. He now says:


"This was only ever designed as a hypothetical observation - we do not want it to happen, nor do we believe that it will. But it has become a media story that has spun out of control - and it is now time for it to stop. Real people make real financial decisions based on what they read and hear in the media - we want to make quite clear that they should be expecting a moderate rise in rates, not a doubling."


One thing he's certainly got right is that some people do react to what they see in the newspapers. You can well imagine that people with large mortgages who are already stretched to the limit might be inclined to panic at the thought of interest rates doubling! And the moment people start panicking is the moment the market turns.


If you are truly worried that interest rates will go up enough to cause you money worries, then consider fixing your mortgage rate for the next few years, so you'll know exactly how much you'll need to find each month. As it happens, the CML believes the Bank of England's base rate is likely to end the year at around 5.25%, and end next year at around 5.5%.

Does that make you feel better?

Insider trader - 24 May 2004 14:16 - 15 of 15

Putting up interest rates properly is long overdue imo. Good for savers and traders who have put vast amounts of their pot into saving plans whilst the markets sort themselves out and the houses retrace back to normal levels again.
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