any body got rich with cairns

COME ON GUYS JOIN IN

C'mon bas, you don't use words like "got rich"
...but it's been a corker ;)

any guesses for re entry

Cairn Energy has reached 14.20 after a meteoric rise this year but Stuart believes there is more upside potential. 'Some analysts expect Cairn Energy to reach 16.50 but this is based on current oil reserves,' says Stuart. 'The company has had four successes this year with new finds and will be doing 20 drill tests before the end of the year.

Williams de Br reiterates buy Persimmon and says buy Shire Pharmaceuticals (LSE: SHP.L - news - msgs) , Corus Group (LSE: CS.L - news) and Legal & General .

The broker has hold Bodycote International (LSE: BOY.L - news) , Avis Europe (LSE: AVE.L - news) , Cairn Energy (LSE: CNE.L - news) and Abbey National .

What is very clear about Cairn is that it must be quite a darling in Indias Governmental eschelons. Imagine the insatiable demand for oil and gas in India. Each Cairn discovery is a step (although so small) towards self-sufficiency. There is a very long way to go and Cairn is likely to be there in the long run either as it is now or whatever form that prevails when it might eventually be taken over.

The political risks are there all the time. In the UK there were the problems in N Ireland throughout the whole of the North Sea exploration and production years from around 1973 onwards. The India Pakistan situation appears to be subdued of late but could always flare up. I dont believe either country would want to go to war. Much of the goings on could be fairly described as sabre rattling. It is not high risk in my view.

There is Maoist activity in Nepal which might be a very big zone for future discoveries of oil and gas for Cairn. It must be noted how Cairn excluded sensitive areas of its Nepalese acreage and publicly declared them. These sensitivities show a mature and caring operator. As I have said before Cairn has operated in hostile territory such as Semutang in Bangladesh. So there is prior and relevant experience. Cairn would not operate there if is considered the risk factor was high.

There was a time when the domain cairn-energy.co.uk was used improperly by a group complaining about oil exploration in the Sunderbans a home of the tiger. I think that perhaps reinforced Cairns recognition towards the necessity to act in a very sensitive manner. Thankfully that negativity is no longer displayed on the Internet.

I expect the Cairn board to have conducted a thorough risk assessment for each area of activity. What I dont know about is the extent to which Cairn has rejected opportunities because at risk assessment time the companys criteria for proceeding were not met. It is fair to say that if opportunities are not taken up we are unlikely to find out.

Bertie Biddle adds some pertinent points but, with respect, I think the use of the phrase All Cairns eggs are in one basket is not appropriate. Certainly south east Asia as a core area is now the only zone in which Cairn operates but we must remember just how vast the acreages are. The whole of the North Sea could be tucked away with ease. India alone is more than 3.25 million sq. km and England, Scotland and Wales would fit into India fourteen times. (England 130K, Scotland 79K and Wales 21K sq. km = 230K total). Nepal (147K) is larger than England as is Bangladesh (143K). One of these days, out of interest, I would like to list the Cairn concessions and calculate the total area. My guess is that it is about the size of England. Sheer size doesn't count if prospectivity is low. In this region Cairn has the knowledge and results of the high prospectivity rating.

One aspect, which I dont recall having seen mentioned here previously, is that of local personnel resources. There are so many very bright and dependable staff resources on tap in that region and they come at a fraction of the price compared with the UK. To have those resources in the basket is an obvious bonus. Cairn does have responsibilities for the training of local nationals that puts something back, so to speak, but also provides local expertise.

If we ponder the benefits of concentrating ones efforts in a particular zone we can come up with some good examples. I feel sure that Joatmon would support the view that with such a growing number of wells drilled and rigs deployed, the Cairn contracting and procurement performance must be extraordinarily effective. Consider the benefits of dealing with the same suppliers more locally rather that charging all round the World in different pockets of activity. Import and export requirements alone require a huge administrative back up. Expertise and the development of interpersonal relationships counts for so much. I believe Cairn's operations are well honed by now and management's need to adjust or change operational aspects bring the requires response from the support groups.

We sit at long range with only superficial knowlege of this organisation. We speculate what lies ahead. Management is always a few steps in front and as we get to know the details it seems to be consistently good news. There will be some disappointing news around and we will hear of that too. However, the good news will dominate in my view and my expectations are enormous. I'm sticking around this investment for a long time yet based upon what I know and what I anticipate.

All the best

IMO non OPEC countries are producing all they can in response to the high prices - there may be a little more to come from new production (less the usual declines) but essentially they are maxed out. Russia is constrianed by pipeline capacity - IMO at least a year to eliminate that bottleneck. And of course Iraq has a problem with its exports. IMO I see $50 on the near horizon per barrel,
IMO we are at these levels now, and with the winter coming on in the northern hemisphere, I would expect oil to move into the $50-$60 range until spring, unless there is a severe winter.
As for Cairn IMO the share price will move above 20 in September - but who knows with any certainty, it could be 30,40 or more with a severe winter price surge.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/newspaper/0,,2769-1236672,00.html
Scottish Agenda: Robert Ballantyne: Forget the share price, look for Gammells strategy
ROBERT BALLANTYNE, BUSINESS EDITOR SCOTLAND



BILL GAMMELL, Cairn Energys chief executive, is facing the kind of challenge most oilmen would sell their Texas ranch for. In just over a week, Scotlands Klondike king will announce interims for a year that has included no fewer than four oil strikes onshore in Rajasthan in India.
As a result of those finds, Cairns shares have risen in steady steps from 4 to within a whisker of 15 today. Such a performance virtually guarantees that the Edinburgh-based company will join the blue-chip FTSE 100 index at its reshuffle on the same day.



But the results will be virtually ignored. The market awaits an independent report on reserves in the main Mangala field, and Gammells view of prospects for the three finds. After Shells debacle over reserves, the Mangala report by Dallas-based consultants DeGolyer & MacNaughton should conclude that Cairn has found proven reserves of 1.8 billion barrels or so, a figure big enough and independent enough to support most of the value built into the share price.

But Gammells description of the potential of the other three discoveries, at least one of which is outside Cairns vast exploration area, is what will affect the expectations which are powering the shares.

Much is anticipated in this statement, and many may be disappointed. Some have suggested that taking profits is no bad thing, and investors large and small have top-sliced and done just that. Cairn will want to take some of the steam out of an excitable market.

But beyond the independent report and Gammells drilling update, look for his views on where Cairn will be into next year. More than 100m was recently raised for what? To maximise drilling, and begin putting in infrastructure for what is proving to be a massive field.

Listen for indications on where he will lead the company. Gammell wants Cairn to remain an exploration company, but such huge discoveries need a production strategy. So what gives more value to shareholders selling off the prospects now, or drilling and drilling, developing production and adding value? Cairn has promised to produce a development plan for the Indian government. Once the field is evaluated, Gammell has already suggested one answer would be to float the production arm as an Indian business on the Bombay stock exchange, creating value for Edinburgh and Bombay alike.

Gammells heart is in exploration, whether drilling in Texas, India or Nepal. But the pressure is on in Edinburgh. No doubt the phones have been ringing with offers, and the more is known about the discoveries, the more strident will the siren voices become.

Callers should remember one thing Gammell and his board are no fools. Nobody, but nobody, is going to get Cairn or its assets on the cheap.

I have been holding CNE shares for sometime, quietly following the very intelligent comment on this BB. Whilst not wanting to ramp the share price, I am taking a long term view..for the following reasons.

The world has reached a cross over point, using more oil than we produce (this period of volatile oil prices is a turning point, look back in a few years and see that this is true) both China and India are the powerhouse of the future, GDP's of 8%+, massive demand for oil and other petro-carbon products. Large oil companies have smaller reserves in % terms than at any time in the last 30 years, political/terrorism problems of massive proportions. IMO we will see $50 to $60 pb short term and $70 pb in the next 5 years, which once you strip out the breakeven price at CNE pb of oil, throw in the very aggresive drilling programme, excellent management and success rate, and improving technology for exploration, my conclusion is 45 - 60 share price inside 5 years. Please do not think this a ramp, I am taking a long term view, short term may see some downwards movement, do not follow the market like sheep, research your stock and sector, remember oil would have to climb to over $105 pb to exceed the 1973-75 price in real terms, and the world will have to adapt to higher prices as supplies dwindle. Check out the CIA website for research, very interesting.

Be 20 quid before christmas irrespective of oil price.

Huge basin of oil for the Indian economy to draw on.

All imo.