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Traders Thread - Friday 19th November (TRAD)     

Greystone - 19 Nov 2004 06:12

Greystone - 19 Nov 2004 06:13 - 2 of 11

Good morning traders!

In the US last night the Dow closed 22.98 ahead ate 10572.55 and the Nasdaq was up 4.60 at 2104.28. S&P500 ended 1.61 better at 1183.55.

US market gains were modest despite spending most of the session in a range around the unchanged mark. The dull attitude came from a Q1 warning from Applied Materials, which acted as one of the catalysts behind the Nasdaq's sluggish start. As advancers narrowed the gap between decliners in late trading, a buying frenzy turned things around and left every tech sub-sector surging into the close. Other areas showing strength were energy and airline, as December crude oil futures fell 1.32% to $46.22/bbl. Asian markets are trading mixed.

Not much in the way of reporting today but spotlight will fall on EMI - for better or worse... ;-)

Be more fun watching BPRG....... :-)

Happy trading!

G.

Bullshare - 19 Nov 2004 06:16 - 3 of 11

morning all. looks like BPRG will be in focus. Will it go up or will it go down. Signs are for it to go up, but I have a feeling a few shorters will be wanting to keep a lid on it.

Volumes across the market this week have been very high, spoke to a few brokers yesterday and they are repoerting their best week ever for trades. from retail and cfd clients .

I have been mainly short this week(5 shorts and 3 longs), but its Friday, so closing all positions out.

Digger - 19 Nov 2004 07:09 - 4 of 11

AFX
Things are expected to be a little quieter in the UK today as the market winds down after a busy week, with interim results from EMI being the only blue-chip due to report earnings this morning.
The music group is expected to report a 13 pct year-on-year decline in first-half pretax profit, while the recent weakening of the dollar and lagging album sales are likely to lead to continued slowdown in the second half, according to analysts.
The consensus of analysts' forecasts is for pretax profit to fall to 32 mln stg from 39 mln last year, while sales are expected to fall to 868 mln stg from 960 mln.
Elsewhere, Reuters should be active again today after the Financial Times reported that the information group has confirmed that it is reconsidering its long-term ownership of a controlling stake in Instinet, its US-listed financial data business.
The drug sector should also be in focus after a FDA official told lawmakers yesterday that the agency, in its current form, is unable to protect the public from another Vioxx-type incident.
The official said for example that the agency should take a serious look at AstraZeneca's recently approved lipid-lowering drug Crestor, which appears to have a risk of renal failure, while GlaxoSmithkline's asthma treatment Serevent also came under criticism.

Digger - 19 Nov 2004 07:24 - 5 of 11

MARKETS

FTSE 100 4,805.3, up 9.4

FTSE 250 6,604.30, up 5.10

DJIA 10,572.55, up 22.98

Nasdaq composite 2,104.28, up 4.6.

S&P 500 1,183, up 1.61

Tokyo: Nikkei closed at 11,082.84, up 0.42

Hang Seng midday 13,755.36, down 46

Brent Crude: December 42.80 usd vs. 42.76

Gold: 437.45 usd vs. 434.82



BREAKING NEWS

* Brown facing 10 bln stg hole in public finances - the Guardian

* US watchdog FDA accused by own expert to let people down over drug - FT

* Ofcom orders BT to overhaul operations to help rivals access network - FT

* OPEC concerned about rare Q4 increase in global crude oil inventories - FT

* Banks fend off accusations on hedge funds - FT

* Post Office stares into 2.5 bln stg pensions hole - Daily Telegraph



PRESS COMMENT

INDEPENDENT

Investment Column: HILTON GROUP (Hold); SABMILLER (Avoid); BOC (solid long-

term buy)



FT

Lex Column: Ofcom reluctant to recommend split of BT's fixed-line network from retail activities (a break-up would deprive BT of operational synergies and discourage investment); SABmiller (trading in-line with sector, which is generous as heavy emerging markets exposure increases growth and risk profile); Instinet (has yet to convert market share into industry-leading margins; would be simpler to merge with existing exchange); Dexia-San Paolo (talks may only result in small joint-venture).



EXPRESS

WHO'S DEALING: FAYREWOOD (CEO sold 1.367 mln shares, nearly 3 pct of company);

SHARE WHISPER: MICE GROUP (ushering new area by splitting chairman and chief executive roles; next month's figures could beat expectations); BROKER'S VIEW: AB PORTS (ABN Amro downgraded to 'hold' from 'add' yesterday arguing growth potential did not merit higher share price, and returns would be 'modest at best').



DAILY TELEGRAPH

Questor: BPB (hang on); Caledonia (hold on); Virgin Mobile (best avoided)



GUARDIAN

Market Forces: TBI (Takes off on takeover approach; analysts say most likely buyer private equity firm or Australia's Macquarie)



TIMES

Tempus: NATIONAL GRID TRANSCO (buy); MOTHERCARE (hold)



INVESTORS CHRONICLE

Sell BG Group at 357p - Buy NSB Retail Systems at 27p - Punch Taverns at 561p - Quarto Group at 172p - Disperse Technologies at 19p - VTR at 83p

daves dazzlers - 19 Nov 2004 07:30 - 6 of 11

Good morning,,nike,nike.

little woman - 19 Nov 2004 08:48 - 7 of 11

Morning all

Digger - 19 Nov 2004 09:58 - 8 of 11

LONDON (AFX) - UK and European brokers' recommendations issued today, as collated by AFX News from a range of market sources.



JP MORGAN

Downgrade Neutral from overweight Skandia, cuts fair value to 30 eur from 32 -- Reiterate Overweight Rhon Klinikum, cuts fair value to 47 eur from 50 -- Underweight BPB, cuts target to 411 pence from 412, increases EPS estimates



MERRILL LYNCH

Downgrade Neutral from buy GfK, valuation call -- Downgrade Neutral from buy Computacenter, cuts estimates -- Downgrade Neutral from buy SABMiller -- Reiterate Buy National Grid Transco, ups target to 525 pence from 510



CITIGROUP SMITH BARNEY

Downgrade Buy from hold Thales -- Upgrade Buy from hold Yule Catto



DEUTSCHE BANK

Downgrade Sell from hold William Morrison, target 205 pence -- Reiterate Buy Vivendi Universal, ups target to 25 eur from 24 -- Hold Fielmann, ups target to 50.1 eur from 48.4, cuts estimates -- Buy Richemont, raises target to 41.5 sfr -- Hold Skandia, cuts target to 28.5 skr from 29.7 -- Hold SABMiller, raises target to 830 pence from 75O



MORGAN STANLEY

Downgrade Equal-weight from overweight Alstom -- Reiterate Overweight Richemont, ups price target to 36 sfr from 35 -- Equal-Weight Premier Farnell, cuts target to 234 pence from 256 -- Overweight Credit Agricole, cuts price target to 24.2 eur from 25 -- Equal-weight Taylor Woodrow, cuts price target to 238 from 251, reduces estimates



DRESDNER KLEINWORT

Upgrade Add from hold HVB



WESTLB

Downgrade Neutral from outperform SABMiller, ups target to 925 pence from 900



ALTIUM SECURITIES

Downgrade Sell to reduce Parity Group



ING

European Strategy: Ups Banking sector to Overweight -- Downgrade Sell from hold RAC -- Downgrade Hold from buy Philips



SG SECURITIES

Downgrade Hold from buy BankInter, fair value 39 eur -- Reiterate Buy KBC, ups fair value to 66.7 eur from 54



EVOLUTION SECURITIES

Downgrade Sell from hold WH Smith, cuts target to 265 pence from 305



NUMIS

Downgrade Hold from add Aberdeen Asset



UBS

Reiterate Buy Tandberg, ups target to 79 nkr from 71 -- Neutral OTE, ups target to 12.5 eur from 10.5 -- Neutral Cosmote, ups target to 13.7 eur from 13.0 -- Neutral Autoroutes Sud de la France, ups target to 36 eur from 35.7 -- Buy EMI Group, post-results -- Neutral Alstom, 0.60 eur target -- Neutral Technip 135 eur target -- Neutral SCH, ups target to 9.6 eur from 9.1 -- Buy Allianz, ups target to 110 eur from 102 -- Buy Porsche, ups target to 640 eur from 600



DRESDNER KLEINWORT

Reiterate Buy Chrysalis, cuts target to 237 pence from 260



CAI CHEUVREUX

Reiterate Outperform Deutsche Telekom, ups target to 17.5 eur from 16.6 -- Outperform Draegerwerk, ups target by 8 pct to 55 eur



PANMURE GORDON

Reiterate Buy AB Foods, ups target to 800 pence from 710



CSFB

Reiterate Outperform SABMiller, raises target to 960 pence -- Outperform SABMiller, ups target to 960 pence

Velocity - 19 Nov 2004 12:08 - 9 of 11

Nasty shock on my AZN long after seeing them tank $4 on the adr's last night! Reversed the trade at 22.00 so hopefully the FDA will talk it down even more...

jj50 - 19 Nov 2004 12:34 - 10 of 11

Greystone - 19 Nov 2004 16:13 - 11 of 11

Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan, while at a conference in Germany to discuss the euro, has said those not hedged for higher rates should be prepared to lose money... This is one of the FOMC Chair's most direct comments about the direction of interest rates, and it has caused intense selling in both equities and treasuries... The 10-year note has dropped 21 ticks to yield 4.19%, while the dollar has also extended its losses on Greenspan's comment that "currency interventions have had only moderate effects in the past"...
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