Good morning traders!

In NY last night the Dow just managed to stay ahead, up 3.18 at 10,492.60, with the Nasdaq marginally down at 2,084.28 and the S&P500 also flat at 1,176.94.

Apart from a few short-lived rallies, the major indices spent most of the session behind, under pressure from a surge in the price of crude oil, another record low for the dollar, and cautious remarks from analysts.

Crude oil futures ($48.94/bbl +0.30) were the main catalyst dictating the day's action, leading to wide swings. Oil surged to more than $50/bbl in early trading on news that Iraqi oil flows were halved for a second straight day.

In London today, ex-d factors will probably have as much effect as anything with no real heavyweights due to report.

Back with some news in a mo...

Happy trading!

G.

STOCKWATCH Northern Rock downgraded to 'neutral' at CSFB on IFRS concerns
AFXU


LONDON (AFX) - Northern Rock PLC has been downgraded to 'neutral' from 'outperform' at CSFB on concerns over International Financial Reporting Standards, dealers said.

CSFB said it thinks whispers of income recognition concerns will likely gather pace and noted the company does not intend to commit fully until the first or second quarter of 2005.

CSFB said that fundamentally it is a supporter of the Northern Rock story and expects the restatement to lead to better growth after 2005, however, the broker argued there is no need to buy the shares until better disclosure is made available.

MARKETS
FTSE 100 4,742.4,up 9.3
FTSE 250 6,569.6, up 28.7
DJIA 10,492.60, up 3.20
Nasdaq Coq 2,084.28, down 0.91
S&P 500 1,176.95, down 0.30
Tokyo: Nikkei closed at 10,872.33, up 22.94
Hang Seng midday 14,029.23, up 5.94
Gold 448.42 usd (447.75 usd)
Oil - Brent 44.45 usd (44.38 usd)

BREAKING NEWS
* Ukranian opposition leader in power bid; Yushchenko swears himself in as president; 'civil conflict' warning in wake of poll dispute - FT
* Easy Group close to clinching a deal with T-Mobile, Deutsche Telekom's mobile arm, to launch a low-cost mobile telephone service in the UK - entrepreneur Stelios Haji-Ioannou's first telephony foray - FT
* Serious Fraud Office confirms it has launched a probe into alleged irregularities in building contracts at an NHS hospital in Nottingham - FT
* BP sells its stake in Norway's Ormen Lange gas field for 1.2 bln usd
* Leonard Steinberg, chairman and founder of STANLEY LEISURE, earns 36 mln stg from the sale of 8 mln shares in the betting and casino business to Genting, the Malaysian-based leisure group
* GREAT PORTLAND ESTATES predicts the City rental market is unlikely to pick up until 2006
* ICI agrees to sell polymer subsidiary to a rival for 112 mln stg
* REUTERS confirms rumours that it has put its Instinet electronic shares trading business, worth about 1.1 bln stg, up for sale - Independent
* BAT hit by fresh claims it used smuggling to expand into Asia; DTI under pressure after investigation of tobacco giant was dropped in March - Independent

PRESS COMMENT
FT
THE LEX COLUMN comments on airlines (consolidation in Europe is inevitable), Gold (the dollar's medium-term decline is not over, and gold could well reach fresh highs; but the bulls may have their resolve tested first), INTERCONTINENTAL (trading at 18.5 times next year's earnings, which could well mark the peak), Apple/Analysts' estimates - DETICA (not cheap, but if the initiatives start to deliver, there is plenty more room for growth) - GREAT PORTLAND ESTATES (not cheap)
Express
KINGFISHER (talk of slowdown in DIY) - WHO'S DEALING: STRATHDON INVESTMENTS (chairman and chief executive increase their stakes) - SHARE WHISPER: PHYTOPHARM (talk it is close to securing a licensing deal) - BROKER'S VIEW: GAME GROUP (reduce from buy - ABN Amro)
Mail
TT ELECTRONICS (vague talk that an earnings-enhancing deal could be just around the corner) - TBI (talk of an imminent 95 pence-a-share cash offer)
Independent
THE INVESTMENT COLUMN: SIGNET (hard to escape the conclusion that the stock is going down, not up, next year), ENODIS (hold), UNITED DRUG (hold)
Guardian
FRENCH CONNECTION (talk it has drawn predatory interest from a private equity group)
Telegraph
SSL INTERNATIONAL (RECKITT BENCKISER bid speculation) - QUESTOR: EASYJET (too pricey), GWR (best to wait before buying), UNITED DRUG (hold on for a dip in the price before buying)
Times
RUMOUR OF THE DAY: MONEYBOX (talk that TRM, the US rival that bought 4.95 pct last month, is adding to its stake) - DIRECTORS' DEALINGS: DICOM GROUP (chairman sells stock for 960,000 stg) - TErUS: INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS GROUP (hold), VIRIDIAN (buy for the above-average 5.5 pct yield), ENODIS (with dividends back on the menu, shares should be bought)

BSkyB long-term rating raised to Baa2 vs Baa3, outlook stable - Moody's

LONDON (AFX) - Moody's Investors Service said it raised its long-term senior unsecured rating on British Sky Broadcasting Group PLC to Baa2 from Baa3, with a stable outlook.
The upgrade was prompted by the broadcaster's continued solid operating and strong financial performance, and the rating agency's belief that BSkyB's core subscriber base supports a medium-term outlook for the group to continue to generate strong positive free cash flows.
The Baa2 rating also reflects Moody's expectation that any further capital distributions to shareholders would be in accordance with the BSkyB's commitment to maintain an investment grade rating.
Moody's said the stable outlook anticipates that BSkyB should be able to maintain its leading position within UK pay-TV broadcasting in the face of a tougher competitive environment, and that this should continue to underpin its current strong business and financial risk profile over the medium-term.

Morning punters

ELA - FDA approval
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/20041124070000Z7100.html

IEN - contract
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200411240700045617F.html

AFE - more gold
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200411240700045538F.html

MWB - office deal with Citigroup
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200411240700075684F.html

RFT - contract win
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200411240700095705F.html

RBI - litigation settlement
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200411240700145731F.html

MNGS - new license agreement
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200411240700195746F.html

MRS - new debt facility
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200411240700295761F.html

BSS - profit warning. It's been a darling sector recently
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200411240701345789F.html

SDY - doing well methinks and hovering around all-time highs - could go large?
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200411240700165737F.html

ITK - decent interims, bullish outlook. Higher low coming up?
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200411240700045623F.html

IFX - Mr G will be happy. Maiden profit
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200411240700105722F.html

ANGL - beat forecasts
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200411240700085691F.html

IMG - decent interims IMO. Market will probably hate them. ;-)
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200411240700195744F.html

GLD - good prelims. Has had a good run, but long term chart shows how low it still is. Hmm
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200411240700145734F.html

Have a good day.

Morning all.

Morning all.

A predator stalking FCCN will be music to my ears I can tell you!!!
Thought PAG were reporting today? Oh well I've obviously got that one
wrong it seems - not an unusual feat on my part these days LOL!
Anyone know if the dollar is still shifting downwards or has it
stabilized?

London shares - midmorning features

FTSE 100 risers
Exel 738-1/2 up 7-1/2
In-line trading statement
Hilton Group 262-3/4 up 2-3/4
Switching from InterContinental
Xstrata 921-1/2 up 6
Further rally on China influences
Enterprise Inns 640 up 2-1/2
KPC Peel Hunt 'buy'
GUS 865-1/2 up 1-1/2
Panmure Gordon prefers stock to Kingfisher
Daily Mail & General 739-1/2 up 1-1/2
Panmure Gordon 'buy'
WPP Group 579 up 2
Sanford Bernstein 'outperform' with 668p target & ests upped
Prudential 414-3/4 up 1/2
'Outperform' with 514 pence target - Sanford Bernstein
Legal & General 108-1/4 up 1/4
'Outperform' with 110 pence target - Sanford Bernstein

FTSE 100 fallers
Tomkins 256-1/4 down 11-3/4
Dollar weakness worries offset better-than-expected Q3 results
British Land 786-1/2 down 15-1/2
Post-interims profit-taking
J Sainsbury 262-3/4 down 5
Merrill Lynch restarts coverage with 'sell'
William Morrison Supermarkets 219-1/4 down 1-3/4
Merrill Lynch restarts coverage with 'sell'
Barclays 561-1/2 down 3
Trading update tomorrow
Corus Group 53-1/2 down 1
Profit-taking
InterContinental Hotel Group 658 down 6-1/2
Disappointing Q3 results yesterday
Johnson Matthey 1,015 down 12
Interims tomorrow
AstraZeneca 2,130 down 15
'Hold' from 'buy' - Citigroup
Kingfisher 291-1/2 down 3/4
'Hold' from 'buy' with target cut to 310p from 320 - Panmure Gordon
Aviva 574 down 2-1/2
Sanford Bernstein targets 571 pence
Cadbury Schweppes 471 down 1-1/2
SG estimates 'fair value' at 471 pence

FTSE 250 risers
Euromoney 380 up 18
Full-year profits beat expectations
Enodis 97 up 3-1/2
'Buy' from 'hold' with target upped to 115 pence from 95 - Citigroup
TBI 91-1/4 up 2
Spain's Abertis, Aena in agreed 551.3 mln stg bid; done deal' - Panmure
Carillion 222-3/4 up 4-1/2
50 pct exposure to public sector puts co in strong position - Bridgewell
easyJet 188-3/4 up 3-1/4
'Overweight' - JP Morgan; UBS ups target to 190p & raises ests
Mitchells & Butlers 299 up 1-3/4
Full-year results due Dec 1; UBS ups target to 285 pence from 270
Paragon Group 328 up 4-1/4
UBS initiates coverage with 'buy' & 450 pence target
Catlin Group 370-1/2 up 1-1/2
'Overweight' - Bridgewell Securities

FTSE 250 fallers
ICAP 247-1/2 down 7-3/4
Dollar weakness dents interims; 'hold' from 'buy' - Teather & Greenwood
Evolution Group 140-1/2 down 4-1/2
With ICAP
AWG 728-1/2 down 6-1/2
14 pct drop in core interim profits
Stanley Leisure 439-3/4 down 4-1/4
Chairman and founder sells 8 mln shares to Genting; Citigroup repeats 'sell'
GWR Group 230 down 2
Static interims yesterday; radio ad slowdown worries
De Vere Group 433-3/4 down 3-3/4
Full-year results due next Wednesday
BPB 443 down 1/4
'Neutral' from 'buy' - UBS

Other risers
African Eagle 24-1/2 up 5-3/4
Upbeat drilling report
Raft International 9.50 up 1.75
Blue-chip bank deal
European Diamonds 42-1/2 up 3
Co to be a mid-tier diamond producer in 2005; Numis 'buy'
Redbus Interhouse 14-3/4 up 1
Litigation settled; positive trading update
Manganese Bronze 201 up 12-1/2
Computer Cab deal
Computer Software 60-1/2 up 3
Swing to H1 profits
Business Serve 60-1/2 up 3
Buqer interims; positive statement
Umbro 97-1/2 up 3
Upbeat presentation
Maxima Holdings 112-1/2
New issue placed at 110 pence
Intelek 9.12 up 0.12
Better-than-expected interims; confident statement
Erinaceous 164-1/2 up 1
Investec repeats 'buy' after interims

Other fallers
BETonSPORTS 79 down 81-1/2
Full-year profits warning; Arbuthnot Securities/KBC Peel Hunt 'sell'
Abbeycrest 66 down 9-1/2
Widening first-half losses
Victoria 210 down 22-1/2
First-half profits slump
Gladstone 23-3/4 down 2-1/4
Co seeking acqusitions & possible institutional funding; FY results

UK and European brokers' recommendations issued today, as collated by AFX News from a range of market sources.





MORGAN STANLEY

Downgrade Equal-weight from overweight mmO2, ups target by 10 pct to 132 pence

-- Reiterate Equal-weight HSBC, ups target to 930 pence from 900, cuts estimates -- Underweight Veolia Environment, ups target to 23 eur from 20.5, cuts estimates -- Reiterate Overweight Hypo Real Estate, ups target to 35 eur from 32



CSFB

Upgrade Outperform from neutral Northern Rock, target 1,010 pence -- Reiterate Outperform Union Fenosa, ups target to 22.0 eur from 20.5



LEHMAN BROTHERS

Upgrade Overweight from equal-weight Credit Suisse Group, ups target by 15 pct to 53 sfr, sees upside potential to 60 sfr



CITIGROUP SMITH BARNEY

Upgrade Buy from hold Enodis, ups target to 115 pence from 95 -- Upgrade buy from hold Great Portland Estates, ups target to 340 pence from 320 -- Downgrade Hold from buy AstraZeneca



DEUTSCHE BANK

Downgrade Sell from hold Infineon, cuts target to 7.00 from 8.00 -- Reiterate Hold SCH, ups target to 9.4 eur from 8.5



UBS

Upgrade Buy from neutral RM Group, ups target to 190 pence from 150 -- Downgrade Neutral from buy BPB -- Upgrade Buy from neutral Mayr-Melnhof, ups target to 130 eur from 110 -- Initiate Buy Paragon, target 450 pence -- Reiterate Buy Cortefiel, ups target to 12.8 eur from 11.5 -- Neutral Detica, ups target to 790 pence from 765 -- Reduce CAT, ups price target to 500 pence from 390 -- Buy Smiths Group, ups price target to 925 pence from 875 -- Neutral easyJet, ups target to 190 pence from 130, raises estimates -- Neutral TeliaSonera, ups target to 38 eur from 35 -- UK Pubs: Reiterate Buy Greene King, ups target to 1,365 pence from 1,300; Buy Wolverhampton & Dudley, ups target to 1,100 pence from 1,052; Neutral Mitchells & Butler, ups target to 285 pence from 270



WESTLB

Downgrade Outperform from buy Bilfinger Berger, ups target to 30.75 eur from 29.0 -- Downgrade Underperform from neutral Freenet.de, target 15 eur



ABN AMRO

Upgrade Buy from add easyJet, ups target to 240 pence from 195



PANMURE GORDON

Downgrade Hold from buy Kingfisher, cuts target to 310 pence from 320, prefer GUS



TEATHER & GREENWOOD

Downgrade Hold from buy ICAP -- Downgrade Hold from buy GUS



WILLIAMS DE BROE

Downgrade Hold from buy Xstrata



KBC PEEL HUNT

Upgrade Buy from hold Speedy Hire



SG SECURITIES

Initiate Hold Cadbury Schweppes, fair value 471 pence -- Reiterate Buy SR Teleperformance, ups fair value to 22 eur from 20



BAIRD EQUITIES

Initiate Outperform ARK Therapeutics



MERRILL LYNCH

European Food Retailers: Restart Buy Delhaize (previously neutral); restart Sell Sainsbury; restart Sell Wm Morrison; restart buy Tesco, ups target to 335 pence from 315; restart Sell Casino; restart Sell Carrefour, cuts target by 10 pct; restart Neutral Ahold, reduces forecasts; restart Neutral Metro; restart sell Big Food Group (previously neutral); restart Neutral Somerfield -- Reiterate Buy Acambis, cuts target to 320 pence from 355



NUMIS

Reiterate Buy Aquarius Platinum, target cut to 304 pence from 342 -- Buy Euromoney, target price raised to around 480 pence from 460 -- Add SMG, cuts target price to 118 pence from 124 -- Add Speedy Hire, ups price target to 516 pence from 460