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Traders Thread - Wednesday 8th December (TRAD)     

Greystone - 08 Dec 2004 06:08

Greystone - 08 Dec 2004 06:08 - 2 of 21

Good morning traders!

It was a rough ride on Wall Street last night with the Dow closing off 106.48 points at 10,440.58, the Nasdaq losing 36.60 points to 2,114.65 and the S&P500 plunging 13.18 points to 1,177.07.

The market opened with slight losses and only deteriorated throughout the day as the indices fell through a series of support levels and inspired broad-based profit-taking from November's hefty gains. Even a 3.5% fall in the price of crude oil to $41.46 a barrel was not enough to turn the tide of trading as investors progressively sold into recent strength. Just about every industry group posted large losses, with technology, basic material, and energy falling the most.

In Asia, markets are mixed with Tokyo well ahead and Hong Kong struggling.

A long ex-d list today is going to make it a tough one to call and with the BoE interest rate deliberations under way, I expect it will cause a lot of traders to site on their hands for the day.

Back with some news in a mo....

Happy trading!

G.

Digger - 08 Dec 2004 06:10 - 3 of 21

AVIVA DOWNGRADED TO 'NEUTRAL' FROM 'BUY' BY UBS
Shares in Aviva PLC have been downgraded to 'neutral' from 'buy' by UBS, dealers said.
In a note to clients, the Swiss broker argued that the shares have risen by 16 pct from their low point in mid-October, aided by improved perceptions as to the outlook for equity markets.
UBS added that although it has raised its target to 665 pence from 645 pence to reflect its higher NAV forecasts, it feels there is no longer sufficient upside to justify a buying the shares.

Greystone - 08 Dec 2004 06:49 - 4 of 21

Good morning Digger and thanks. :-)

Digger - 08 Dec 2004 06:58 - 5 of 21

Leading shares are expected to open lower this morning, mirroring heavy losses on Wall Street last night as a weaker dollar continued to raise concerns over corporate earnings, dealers said.

According to spread-betting firm IG Index, the FTSE 100 index is expected to open around 30 points lower after closing at 4,728.7 yesterday.

US indices closed sharply lower last night, dragged down by weak technology stocks, as mixed comments from Intel, Cisco and Hewlett Packard failed to reassure a nervous market, already concerned over the impact of a weaker dollar.

Digger - 08 Dec 2004 07:19 - 6 of 21

MARKETS
FTSE 100 4,728.7, up 5.9
FTSE 250 6,661.5, up 26.0
DJIA 10,440.60, down 106.50
Nasdaq Comp 2,114.66, down 36.59
S&P 500 1,177.05, down 13.20
Tokyo: Nikkei closed at 10,941.37, up 67.74
Hang Seng midday 14,166.85, down 68.93
Gold 452.25 usd (452.25 usd)
Oil - Brent Jan 38.27 usd (39.65 usd)

BREAKING NEWS
* BBC's axe on 3,000 jobs set to cost 100 mln stg - FT
* Johnson & Johnson in talks to buy medical device maker Guidant, in a deal that could be worth about 24 nln usd
* United Technologies rekindles takeover talks with KIDDE, a UK fire safety group which rejected its initial 1.38 bln stg approach in October - FT
* BAE SYSTEMS to cut its stake in Saab and cede control of the Gripen jet fighter export venture - FT
* Ofcom warns BT over new rule changes - Independent
* PEARSON set to pocket 59 mln stg from the planned sale of CBS MarketWatch, a US financial news website - Independent
* Sale of P&O's Channel ferry service between Portsmouth and Le Havre to rival operator Brittany Ferries referred to the Competition Commission - Guardian

PRESS COMMENT
FT
THE LEX COLUMN comments on Credit Suisse's restructuring plan (investors would be wise to see the execution details before they chase the shares too much higher), HARMONY/GOLD FIELDS, Johnson & Johnson/Guidant (match with Guidant looks promising), Telecom Italia - NORTHUMBRIAN WATER (most of the upside is already in the share price with the stock yielding 5.3 pct) - ANITE (could be scope for a revaluation next year)
Independent
THE INVESTMENT COLUMN: QUINTAIN ESTATES (worth holding), E2V TECHNOLOGIES (one for high-risk investors to buy for the long term), ALBA (a buy)
Times
SANCTUARY GROUP (lingering speculation of predatory interest from Edgar Bronfman's Warner Music) - DIRECTORS' DEALINGS: SINCLAIR PHARMA (director buys 100,000 shares at 106-1/2 pence) - UBC MEDIA (identified as a possible benificiary of the BBC's restructuring) - TEMPUS: QUINTAIN ESTATES (buy), PHS (buy), NORTHUMBRIAN WATER (hold)
Telegraph
QUESTOR: NORTHUMBRIAN WATER (should reward the patient investor), PHS (worth hanging on), ALBA (at 13 times earnings, yielding 2 pct, a bad Santa looks priced in, and the shares will look cheap in retrospect if the Scrooge-like doom mongers are proved wrong)
Guardian
ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT (talk of bid from New Star Asset Management) - CREST NICHOLSON (is it set to sell most of its landbank and return proceeds to shareholders)
Express
WHO'S DEALING: ALPHAMERIC (chief executive buys 40,000 shares at 73 pence) - SHARE WHISPER: SCREEN (speculation a heavily discounted rights issue is on the cards) - BROKER'S VIEW: CENTRICA (neutral from buy - Merrill Lynch) - STAFFLINE (traders expect a strong debut today) - WORLD TELEVISION (dealers reckon a contract win is on the cards)
Mail
PERSIMMON (speculation of significant acquisition) - COMPASS GROUP (vague takeover hopes) - REUTERS (competition fears) - PHYTOPHARM (rumours of an imminent licensing deal with a drugs major)

Big Al - 08 Dec 2004 07:48 - 7 of 21

Morning punters!

COB - nice trading update, fully hedged $ at 1.68
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412080700031241G.html

BGC - lay-offs in trading update
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412080700041321G.html

YULC - oil to hit margins in 1 division, overall in line expected
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412080700081370G.html

AMR - deal with RR cars
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412080700081372G.html

ASD - analyst/investor briefing tomorrow. Got these on the long list
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412080700101389G.html

IMG - new chip license
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412080700121401G.html

DMEG - appointment of German distributor
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412080700151413G.html

GSL - I'm crap at gold miners (amongst others!), but this sounds interesting
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/20041208070019M2142.html

MDW - "settled legal issues". Little more on it
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412080700221440G.html

DTK - acquisition of remainder of Elmo-Tech
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412080700341476G.html

UFJ - reply to media statement
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/20041208070500Z7610.html

CAF - decent finals, maiden divi. I notice this sector been doing well in recent months
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412080700101386G.html

ATH - coalmining minnow seems to be doing well
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412080700141407G.html

NUM - seem to have had a good year
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412080700251447G.html

MDY - getting somewhere now Elan agreement finished? Seem bullish
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412080700281453G.html

JSP - where wouldf you go for your camera?
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412080700261448G.html

FTO - natural gas in China. Hmm, could be good?
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412080700081373G.html

IGR - interims look pretty good
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412080700141402G.html

PRE - plodding away, but chart did a PCI
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412080700171427G.html

HHR - interims seem well ahead of some very good forecasts
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412080700221438G.html

GLO - interims also well ahead, bullish outlook
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412080700281452G.html

That's about it. Probably missed something

Have a good day

Mega Bucks - 08 Dec 2004 07:52 - 8 of 21

morning all,

Tin helmet at the ready,could be a rough ride :-)

Druid2 - 08 Dec 2004 08:10 - 9 of 21

Morning all. Looks as if Barclays will go down through the uptrend line this morning at 540p. Where is the Xmas rally??

daves dazzlers - 08 Dec 2004 08:19 - 10 of 21

Morning all,busy schedule between now and christmas ho ho ho,,so i`am a bit of a part player.

Mega Bucks - 08 Dec 2004 09:01 - 11 of 21

covered BLND +4

Digger - 08 Dec 2004 10:40 - 12 of 21

London shares - midmorning features

FTSE 100 risers
William Hill 546-1/2 up 13-1/2
Government rumoured to be considering more lenient FOBT ruling
British Land 823-1/2 up 10-1/2
Development pact with Marconi
mm02 122-1/2 up 1-1/2
Recent new 3G launch; CSFB positive
Smith & Nephew 545 up 6-1/2
Sector consolidation hopes
Compass Group 233 up 2
Vague takeover hopes
Barclays 546-1/2 up 1-1/2
CSFB reiterates 'outperform'

FTSE 100 fallers
Rio Tinto 1,434 down 40
'Sell' from 'hold' - Deutsche Bank
Anglo American 1,181 down 24
Merrill Lynch removes from Europe 1 list
BAE Systems 238-3/4
Saab stake to be cut; to cede control of Gripen jet fighter export venture
Standard Chartered 959-1/2 down 22-1/2
Cost concerns weigh - trading statement
Corus Group 52-3/4 down 1
Worries about Chinese demand
BP 506-1/2 down 7-1/2
Goldman Sachs prefers Shell
Allied Domecq 505-3/4 down 1-1/4
Teather & Greenwood 'sell'
Aviva 602 down 6-1/2
'Neutral' from 'buy' - UBS

FTSE 250 risers
Stagecoach 107 up 6-3/4
H1 profits top expectations; CSFB reiterates 'outperform' with 110p target
Travis Perkins 1,560 up 71
Wickes acquisition hopes
Kidde 158-1/4 up 4-1/4
United Technologies reportedly rekindles takeover talks
Crest Nicholson 347 up 4
Speculation co is to sell most of its landbank and return proceeds to hldrs
Northumbrian Water 162-1/2 up 1-1/2
Post-interim press comment
Associated British Ports 478-1/4 up 2-1/2
Arbuthnot Securities reviewing its 'sell' rating
Mersey Docks 940 up 6
Arbuthnot 'buy'
Kelda Group 566-1/2 up 3
H1 up 8.2 pct; no plans to bid for Northumbrian; Williams de Broe 'buy'
First Choice 142 up 1
Results Dec 14; Teather & Greenwood reiterate 'buy'

FTSE 250 fallers
Cobham 1,335 down 109
Weak Aerospace margins - trading statement
Meggitt 249-1/2 down 9-3/4
With Cobham
LogicaCMG 187-1/4 down 2-3/4
Morgan Stanley reiterates 'underweight'
Balfour Beatty 303-1/4 down 2-1/2
Morgan Stanley initiates coverage with 'underweight' & 273 pence target
PHS Group 76 down 1-3/4
Profit-taking after yesterday's interims
French Connection 243-3/4 down 1-1/4
Evolution 'reduce'
WH Smith 301 down 2-3/4
Evolution Securities 'reduce'
Tate & Lyle 478 down 4-3/4
Profit-taking; Panmure Gordon 'sell' with 395 pence target

Other risers
World TV 1.37 up 0.25
Talk of contract win; seller cleared out
Mediwatch 6.87 up 1.12
Legal issues regarding equipment distribution to US settled
Chaco Resources 2.55 up 0.18
Interim results
Armour Group 72-1/2 up 5
Upbeat AGM statement
Warthog 0.82 up 0.05
Talk of Microsoft bid for Warthog stakeholder Tiger telematics
Bright Things 71-1/2 up 2-1/2
Entertainment Rights deal
West Bromwich 7,150 up 250
93.4 pct of West Bromwich Albion shares accepted in offer
Fortune Oil 8.37 up 0.25
New natural gas joint venture
Deltex Medical 28-1/4 up 1/4
German distributor appointed

Other fallers
Medisys 5.87 down 1.03
Margins threat offsets narrowing full-year losses
Screen 1.87 down 0.25
Rights issue fears
India Outsourcing 21.00 down 2.50
Profit-taking after recent buoyant AIM debut

stockbunny - 08 Dec 2004 14:37 - 13 of 21

I see the trend of putting the boot in the mining stocks
hasn't lost it's appeal today...
:>(

Big Al - 08 Dec 2004 14:40 - 14 of 21

Long MPH - nice hammer and possibly way oversold.

stockbunny - 08 Dec 2004 14:41 - 15 of 21

Afternoon Big Al!
Hope you are making some money today :>)
Be Lucky!!!!!! (buy you a beer when you're next in the tea-rooms)

Big Al - 08 Dec 2004 15:02 - 16 of 21

Howdy, bunny. You still on the Lemsips?

It's all a bit flat.

stockbunny - 08 Dec 2004 15:08 - 17 of 21

Yes I'm still taking the tablets Big Al LOL!!
Just bought some more RRS - med. investment timetable,but short term
turn around if it's possible.....It will either prove to be a magic
stroke or prove I'm gutton for punishment!
;>)

Stan - 08 Dec 2004 15:23 - 18 of 21

Just seen the Rio downgrade and wondered about a bounce trade....then remembered It's a mining stock(raised eyebrows)!

stockbunny - 08 Dec 2004 15:40 - 19 of 21

The miners have got more bounce in them - up and down- currently
then a trampoline factory - I'll take me chances Stan :>)

Stan - 08 Dec 2004 15:56 - 20 of 21

Could be right SB, price coming back I see.

stockbunny - 08 Dec 2004 16:05 - 21 of 21

I know - quick cartwheel across the dealing floor!
:>)
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