A Brief Look At The Week Ahead

The retail sector will once again be in focus this week with Tesco set to publish strong interims. Last year's figures showed profits up 28% and the City will be eager to see if it can match that again and widen the gap between itself and its competitors. Jessops, the country's biggest photographic retailer, releases a trading statement on Wednesday which is expected to show that a downturn in the sale of digital cameras continues to hit profits hard. Also on Wednesday, results from Woolworths are expected to reveal a further slump in sales. Ottakar's has also suffered falling sales recently. Interim results are due on Thursday but investors may be less concerned about the profits than the impending acquisition of the 130-store chain by HMV. Away from retail, Deutsche Post is expected to finalise its protracted 3.8bn takeover of Exel on Monday. Also tomorrow, Opec meets to debate the question of whether to increase output in light of the continuing rise in oil prices and the loss of refineries during Hurricane Katrina. Observers say an increase in production is by no means a foregone conclusion. Other BB favourites reporting this week include Pixology, Regent Inns, BETonSports, Cairn Energy, Chorion, Trafficmaster and NXT. There is plenty there to get our teeth into so it should be another interesting week. Good luck in all you do! Thanks to Supermum for her weekly chart view. Greystone (Greystone is Alan English, City Editor at MoneyAM.)

AFX UK at a glance share guide - weekend

MARKETS
FTSE 100 5,407.9 up 24.4
FTSE 250 7,901.6 up 35.0
DJIA 10,641.94 up 83.19
Nasdaq Comp 2,160.35 up 14.2
S&P 500 1,237.91 up 10.18
Gold 457.75 usd (454.15 usd)
Oil - Brent Nov 61.81 usd (63.66 usd)

WEEKEND PRESS
* TESCO sends an in-house team to the US to consider bidding for Albertson, the American grocery group with 2,500 stores; earlier this month, Albertson put itself up for sale with a 7.6 bln usd (4.18 bln stg) price tag - The Business
* Retailers warn Office of Fair Trading that TESCO's share of the grocery market could reach 45 pct within five years - Sunday Times
* TESCO will create 7,500 new jobs between now and February as it opens new stores and expands its growing non-food product areas - Sunday Telegraph
* British industry drawing up plans to scupper a 10 bln stg bid for SCOTTISH POWER by the German energy giant E.ON; big corporate energy users fear that if Scottish Power is taken over, competition and choice will be reduced - Observer
* GUS running the side rule over DIY and home furnishings business Focus; industry sources believe Focus is worth around 600 mln stg - Sunday Express
* CARPHONE WAREHOUSE preparing a bid of around 300 mln stg for CENTRICA's telecoms business OneTel; UBS hired to oversee the sale - Financial Sunday Express
* Embattled supermarket group WILLIAM MORRISON on the brink of a new boardroom civil war as it faces a crippling strike - Observer
* Airlines could claim tens of millions of pounds in compensation from the UK government over plans to reduce night-flight noise at the country's biggest airports - Observer
* UNILEVER considering scrapping its 75-year-old dual stock-market listing as part of a wide-ranging review of its corporate structure - Sunday Times
* Fears of a windfall tax on oil companies, coupled with Treasury pressure on retailers, prompted last week's sudden price war at the pumps - Financial Mail on Sunday
* Sky-high oil prices will depress Britain's growth rate to a sickly 2 pct this year as businesses bear the brunt of soaring energy costs, according to the Ernst and Young Item Club think-tank - Observer
* Gordon Brown to carry out a wide-ranging review into how the government taxes petrol following last week's fuel protests - Independent on Sunday
* Britain agrees aid package to secure Airbus wing jobs - Sunday Times
* Whitehall sees off pressure for redundancies; biggest ministries have protected all employees 14 months after chancellor promised swingeing headcount cuts - Sunday Telegraph
* An expert on struggling retail businesses (Paul McGowan, the UK chairman of Hilco) predicts a glut of collapses on the high street in the run-up to Christmas - Independent on Sunday
* KINGFISHER boss Gerry Murphy blamed by investors for slump in sales - Independent on Sunday
* Shoppers face the prospect of empty supermarket shelves after a strike vote by workers at Britain's biggest meat-processing company; the walkout at Grampian Country Food Group is over the closure of the company's final salary pension scheme - Financial Mail on Sunday
* LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE has held talks with its Swedish counterpart, OM Gruppen, in recent weeks about potential alliances, ranging from forming additional joint ventures to a full-scale 2.3 bln stg merger - Sunday Times
* Deutsche Post expected to announce on Monday an agreed takeover of EXEL that would value the UK logistics company at about 3.6 bln stg - Saturday FT
* Board of BPB will tell shareholders this week that it will not accept a revised bid of less than 800 pence-a-share from Saint-Gobain, in effect slapping a price tag of 4.1 bln stg on the world's biggest plasterboard maker - Independent on Sunday
* BPB mulls 700 mln stg sweetener to fend off French rival Saint-Gobain - Financial Sunday Express
* BOOSEY & HAWKES up for sale as owner, Hg Capital, seeks quick 80 mln stg - Observer
* EXPRESS DAIRIES pulls out of battle with Royal Mail; regulator disappointed at loss of former monopoly's only rival - Observer
* Alchemy Partners is the mystery bidder behind a planned takeover of the vodka-bar group INVENTIVE LEISURE - Sunday Times
*Goldman Sachs and a group of six hedge funds enter into exclusive negotiations to take PEACOCK GROUP private in a deal that could value the discount retailer at about 400 mln stg - Saturday FT
* LOGICACMG expected to announce a 631 mln stg deal to buy Unilog, its French rival, as early as Monday - Saturday FT
* LOGICACMG expected to launch a 400 mln stg cash call on shareholders next week to help buy its French rival Unilog - Guardian
* Market expecting a 400 mln stg rights issue (from LOGICACMG), pitched at 110 pence a share, to fund Unilog deal - Saturday Mail
* BSKYB takes pole position in Flextech auction - Saturday FT
* ITV eliminated from the 1 bln stg auction of Flextech - Sunday Times
* BSKYB to offer consumers access to the live content of entire channels through mobile phones - Saturday Independent
* WH SMITH seen as increasingly likely to enter the bidding for OTTAKAR'S amid growing disquiet among publishers over the offer from HMV - Saturday Mail
* Axa leads attack on MISYS chief Kevin Lomax over profits warning - Saturday Times
* MISYS thought to have slashed its price for its Sesame business, which provides support services to financial advisers, to 100 mln stg from 300 mln - Financial Sunday Express
* ONGAME, the Stockholm-based group which is the third-biggest operator of poker websites, seeking to appoint advisers for a London float, undeterred by the fall-out from PARTYGAMING's profits slowdown - Saturday Telegraph
* SHELL and EXXON MOBIL excluded from the development of Shtokman, a Russian offshore gasfield with enough reserves to keep Britain supplied for 17 years - Saturday Times
* Russian gas behemoth Gazprom poised this week to sweep up Russia's number five oil producer, Sibneft, in a deal worth as much as 6.6 bln stg - The Business
* COMPASS GROUP lining up the disposal of its travel-concessions arm in a move that is expected to raise at least 300 mln stg - Sunday Times
* BARCLAYS will spark a battle of the banks when it unveils an advertising campaign tomorrow morning designed to gee up its staff and cock a snook at rivals - Sunday Times
* CARNIVAL mulling sale of its niche operation Swan Hellenic, which runs cultural discovery voyages for the older market - Financial Sunday Express
* OLD MUTUAL secures backing for its 3.2 bln stg bid for Skandia from at least three of the Swedish company's 11-strong board, including its chairman Bernt Magnusson - Saturday Independent
* Ministers will next week announce a significant concession over 24-hour drinking laws, in an attempt to head off a public outcry about the biggest overhaul of licensing for 90 years - Saturday FT
* Investors, like shoppers, deserting the high street, wiping 4.2 bln stg, or 8.5 pct, off the value of UK retailers since January amid fears that falling sales and profits will mean expensive restructurings and lower returns - Saturday FT
* Investors owning more than a quarter of SAVOY ASSET MANAGEMENT seek to oust Kenneth Clarke as chairman - Mail on Sunday

SATURDAY PRESS COMMENT
FT
THE LEX COLUMN comments on o2 (if o2 were in play, BT GROUP should consider bidding, using KPN), Power generation M&A (Drax's equity-linked debt now trades at a 14 pct premium to the price implied by the offer on the table; clearly, Perry Capital is not the only hedge fund taking a punt on UK power), Russia (obstacles to doing business in Russia - bureaucracy, corruption, a weak legal framework - remain enormous; with elections only two years away, the government's commitment to lowering them has never seemed weaker), Fiat/Ifil (the Agnellis have proved as financially canny as group chief executive, Sergio Marchionne; the soundness of their industrial logic, however, remains a punt on the new Punto) - Weekend share watch: CAMBRIDGE SILICON RADIO ((at a premium to UK technology stocks but cheaper than US peers, and could have more momentum behind it), MORGAN SINDALL (at this level, the company is, quite reasonably, on one of the highest price-earnings ratios in the sector), ANGLO PACIFIC (still looks a good bet as the outlook for coal remains strong) - ANALYST WATCH: BSKYB (a high possibility that it will have the characteristics of a utility stock, but with the bonus of top-line growth; and that is something you can advise your grandmother to buy) - FUND MANAGER IN FOCUS: HAMWORTHY (current top tip of Charles Thomas, Jupiter Ecology fund) - MY PORTFOLIO: Kevin Goldstein-Jackson recently added CENES PHARMACEUTICALS to his portfolio

Telegraph
THE MARKET: EASYJET (rumours that Icelandair was attempting to increase its stake), EQUATOR EXPLORATION (talk it is about to announce a significant oil find), SANCTUARY GROUP (some traders speculate a takeover could be back on; however, others say a large seller has been cleared out) - SATURDAY QUESTOR: DSG, BOOTS (both worth a look for income investors), NEXT (cheap, especially as they should be supported by share buybacks), KINGFISHER (have serious asset backing; only for the brave, though); SMALL CAP VALUES: HEYWOOD WILLIAMS (a risky buy), ISOTRON (if they fall any further they are worth picking up), MAYBORN (not expensive)

Guardian
Market forces: REGUS (distressed seller cleared out), MITIE (chief executive sells stock worth 1.7 mln stg), BOWLEVEN (talk that a 55 mln stg fund raising, yet to be announced, was struck at 650 pence and the shares were two times oversubscribed), TEESLAND (whispers of a takeover approach), FRIENDS PROVIDENT (rumours of a 235 pence-a-share bid from Axa)

Independent
PRIVATE INVESTOR: Sean O'Grady sells SPORTINGBET and invests proceeds in GLAXOSMITHKLINE - NO PAIN, NO GAIN: Derek Pain comments on GOALS SOCCER CENTRES (planning to join the dividend list when it reveals year's figures), PREZZO (a dividend at the year-end is expected), PRINTING.COM (producing enough cash to make dividend payments; and, says Jon Lienard, at Brewin Dolphin, set steadily to increase its payments), GOURMET HOLDINGS (I am considering the gastropub business where the ubiquitous Kayes have a significant stake; and an infant called ERUMA - it makes security blinds) - MARKET REPORT: o2 (traders now believe that a move on o2 by Telefonica is back on the cards), BOC (talk that a 1,330 pence bid from BASF could be imminent), SANCTUARY GROUP (rumours it is close the sale of its music publishing business)

Times
STOCK MARKETS: RANK GROUP (persistent talk of a 320 pence-a-share offer from Blackstone), RWS HOLDINGS (talk of a big European acquisition) - TEMPUS: Jenny Davey says you may be missing some nice bargains if you ignore the retail sector; NEXT (drop has probably been overdone), MAJESTIC WINE, BURBERRY (both have managed to deliver sales growth)

Mail
MARKET REPORT: BG (ROYAL DUTCH SHELL bid speculation) - INVESTMENT EXTRA: DEBT FREE DIRECT (growth prospects outweigh the risks; the shares should have further to go)

Express
MARKET REPORT: RAB CAPITAL (vague talk of a major acquisition), INNOVATA (suggestions it is trading ahead of expectations)

SUNDAY PRESS COMMENT
The Business
THE ALCHEMIST: Clem Chambers tips NEW MEDIA SPARK - THE BEST OF THE BROKERS: ITV (fall in viewers overshadows 9 pct revenue rise), Deutsche Bank (organic growth plans wins fans), CapGemini (healthcare sale sparks recovery) - INSIDE THE MARKET - MID-CAP INVESTOR: XAAR (remain attractive if you are willing to take a long-term perspective), AIM INVESTOR: HOMEBUY (speculative buy) - BENCHMARK: Ian Watson comments on Australia's plans to privatise Telstra, the country's largest communications provider, McCreevy (European internal markets commissioner) madness (if there is one sure way of killing off the resounding success of financial services, it is by letting Brussels dictate what it can and cannot do, and what it can charge and cannot charge for its services), DIY screw-up (why would anybody want to buy a TV set from B&Q (KINGFISHER) when Curry's, Dixons and others offer these products at competitive prices)

Financial Mail on Sunday
MIDAS: Average gain of Midas portfolio 16.8 pct; average change in All-Share index 9.2 pct; outperformance 7.6 pct - COMPANIES AND MARKETS: EXEL (Deutsche Post bid for Exel imminent), BPB (chief executive will tomorrow begin a ten-day shareholder roadshow to try to persuade his investors to continue their support against hostile bidder Saint-Gobain), BSKYB (at top of Flextech shortlist), PREMIER OIL (will tomorrow announce that Oriel Securities is to be its new broker), WYEVALE GARDEN CENTRES (a 300 mln stg auction for Wyevale set to begin after key shareholder Laxey Partners lost its bid to oust chairman David Williams)

Sunday Telegraph
Equity View - BLUE CHIP VALUES: BPB (hang on in there for a better offer), NEXT (further weakness in the shares would be a buying opportunity - but we are not there yet); Look who's trading: HEALTHCARE ENTERPRISE GROUP (four directors take shares in lieu of payment; readers might want to follow the lead of the non-executives); SMALL CAP COMMENT: BURREN ENERGY (worth a buy), DIPLOMA (buy), GRIFFIN MINING (keep buying), SHORE CAPITAL (buy) - THE NUMBERS GAME: Tony Jackson gives CENTRICA a miss

Sunday Times
TESCO TACTICS: As the supermarket giant prepares to unveil record interim results, we reveal its plans to dominate Britain with 185 more stores that could drive its market share up to 45 pct (BUSINESS FOCUS p.5) - Movie moguls thwart RANK's sell-off plans; film studio clients are blocking the leisure group's bid to demerge Deluxe (BUSINESS p.8) - INSIDE THE CITY: Richard Fletcher comments on PROVIDENT FINANCIAL (with a Competition Commission inquiry into home credit still hanging over Provident and threatening the core business, shareholders now have to ask whether chief executive Robin Ashton is the right man to lead the company through such difficult times), ASSOCIATED BRITISH FOODS (driving forec behind success of Primark has been Arthur Ryan and Paddy Prior; both are now approaching 70, and although neither has any intention of standing down, newly appointed chief executive George Weston needs to put succession plans in place now), 32Red (this is one float that Numis will struggle to get away) - JUDGMENT DAY: SHOULD YOU BUY SHARES IN REDROW Andy Brough, fund manager at Schroders, says buy below 400 pence, and Tim Steer, fund manager at New Star, says buy for the long term - DIRECTORS' DEALS: AMVESCAP (vice-chairman sells more shares to raise 1.39 mln stg; GREAT PORTLAND ESTATES (chairman sells 83,000 shares at 377 pence)

Observer
THROG STREET: Richard Wachman comments on BPB (Saint-Gobain is going to have to dig deep for this one), WOOLWORTHS (where Woolworths goes from here is anyone's guess), BURREN ENERGY (if Burren increases its reserve estimates when it updates the market tomorrow, things can only get better)

Many thanks Greystone,Digger and supermum. As always the traders thread is much appreciated!
My money this week is on BOC...a number of people i have spoken to says deal will be announced within ten days....one to keep a close eye on.
Cheers..

Retail outlook

Good evening all,

Not much time to post, but do try to find the time to read most of the posts. So all the posts made are appreciated - thanks to you all for keeping me informed about what may or not be going on. ;-)

Good morning traderrs!

Markets in Japan and Hong Kong are closed today for holidays. Other Asian markets were generally positive with Australia heading for a record closing high.

Oil prices rose in Asian trading hours, despite hopes that OPEC will boost crude production. New York's main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in October, was up 71 cents at $63.71 a barrel from its close of $63.00 in the US on Friday.

Early boker notes :-

Imperial Tobacco raised to 'overweight' vs 'neutral' at JP Morgan

GUS CUT TO 'NEUTRAL' VS 'BUY' AT UBS

REDROW CUT TO 'NEUTRAL' VS 'BUY' AT UBS

Happy trading!

G.

LONDON (AFX) - LogicaCMG PLC, the Anglo-Dutch IT services group, is today expected to announce a 400 mln stg rights issue to help finance its planned 630 mln stg acquisition of French rival Unilog, the Financial Times reported.
According to the newspaper the rights issue will be on a two-for-one basis and will be subject to an investors' vote in mid-October.
It said should the rights issue be approved, LogicaCMG will formally launch its bid for Unilog in early November with the aim of completing the transaction by the end of the year.
On Friday LogicaCMG said it was in advanced talks with Unilog which may lead to an agreed offer of 73 eur per share.

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DEUTSCHE POST OFFERS 5.5 BLN EUR FOR EXEL

LONDON (AFX) - Leading shares are expected to edge higher in opening trade, following a strong session on Wall Street Friday during which the Dow Jones Industrial Average received a lift from broker upgrades of Intel Corp and Exxon Mobil Corp.
According to IG Index, the FTSE 100 will open 2 points higher at 5,410, having closed on Friday at 5,407.9.

MARKETS
Tokyo: Nikkei midday closed
Hang Seng midday closed

TODAY'S PRESS
* Election deadlock in Germany; chancellor and challenger both claim victory; Schroeder rules out working under Merkel's leadership; euro falls on fears that reforms will stall - FT
* Deutsche Post will today unveil a 3.7 bln stg agreed takeover of EXEL - FT
* Rate cuts predicted if growth in UK falls short - FT
* J SAINSBURY will today unveil one of the biggest makeovers in its history, designed to help the supermarket group achieve its ambitious target of adding 2.5 bln stg to annual sales within the next three years - Independent

PRESS COMMENT
FT
THE LEX COLUMN comments on German elections (whoever consolidates power in Berlin must commit rapidly to further bold reform, or risk seeing Germany sink back into gridlock), Oracle/SAP (assuming the US group's acquisition spree is largely over, the German group should grow faster), Measuring leverage (best alternative may still be interest cover)
Express
Hilary Cook, director of investment strategy at Barclays Stockbrokers, tips BSKYB
Independent
Small Talk: ROBERT W BAIRD and BRIDGEWELL SECURITIES rumoured to be considering a merger, INFLEXION (look a interesting punt), FAIRGROUND GAMING (coming to AIM), IP2IPO (GETECH float delayed), SPI LASERS (coming to AIM)

Midday Market Wrap

Put a spreadbet on, based on your LLOY chart supermum. Positive so far today. Resistence at 472.
F

End of day market wrap