how about some info about emerald?trades today 4mln buys 1mln sell.is it just me or is their demand for this share?why does the price not move?I,m new to this caper!cheers.

Whisper it - a RNS this week and 2.50?

Up 10% today to 220p, plenty of volume. Still no update or RNS. Something about to break. Keep watching.

With you all the way PM. Looking forward to results soon when we can see what they achieved last year which I'm hopeful will be a tad above expectations. Russian deal looks astute too.

SD

Imo news will be released this Friday or Monday 21/2/05 followed by trading
update during week 21/2/05 prior to postig particulars of 12mil share placing
to acquire a 25 per cent stake in JSC Krasnoyarskgazprom (KGP) for shareholders
formal approval

this is all imho but as always DYOR

Regards
DFGO

Up another 6% this am. Anticipation of good news. Results in Apr, drilling news expected any day now. once news is out, this will rise by another 20%. Still not enough exposure from Analysts.

Drilling results due Monday sp to rise like never before, will be the new player in the oil mid-caps.

You must be the Old Master - good with oils?

Sounds very interesting - makes sense to announce good news as they list the new shares to keep the SP level or (as you suggest) up.

Roll on Monday.

SD

wheres the news then I suspect it will be here before thursday as they dont issue news of fridays ....

nice rise today can see 250p by end of week

GG - 250 would be very acceptable!

still lack of news causing nervousness

Research report on EEN at http://www.lemminginvestor.com

Copied this from EEN thread on advzn

http://www.lemminginvestor.com/EmeraldEnergy16022005.html


Emerald Energy (EEN)

Edward Kalfayan
15 February 2005

Why the severe undervaluation?

Why the current re-rating?

This share is very underpriced. After we began to write, the price line actually broke out sharply through the previous high of 179p, reaching 199.5p within two days.

Since November the price has been moving up within the same upward trend channel - at a rate of +140% /pa, - and on rapidly increasing volume looks likely to break out into a steeper trend on meeting the upper trend resistance line at 200/205p.

For obvious reasons we do not usually attempt to forecast share price levels but this trend change is unusually positive. By March, production, of 2500 bopd (treble the previous year), from Gigante 1A and Campo Rico 1 in Columbia, is expected to have been re-doubled by the two new wells Campo Rico 2 and 3, as they come on stream in the next fortnight.

Oilbarrel.com is expecting a total 5,500 bopd eventually from the three wells at Campo Rico, plus the original, steady, 750bopd from Gigante 1A - ie 6250 bopd selling for at least $36/barrel - thus $6.86m each month. This will be crudely +680% more than a year ago, itself by far the best figure for five years, previously stuck at 750 bpod from a single well.

The suggestion has been made that cautious EEN management would have known that the publisher of oilbarrel was forecasting 1800 bopd for each of the three wells and that the figure was therefore likely to be higher.

The deadly drilling explosion at Gigante 1 in May 2000, the disintegrating well casing and setbacks with water flooding, plus five years of low oil prices in the range $13.7 - $22 had left insufficient resources to fulfil exploration contracts, so that in 2002 valuable drilling rights had to be relinquished and $20m exploration costs written off.

The company was all but finished before the board replacement and the 6.8m
placing and rights issue of 15 Aug 2003, This was sufficient to launch a successful new drilling program, which, in September '04, was then able to make a good case for a subsequent placing and open offer at 120p to raise 9.3m and transform the future of the company.

To the average broker this is still an aged dog- not to be touched with a barge pole. EEN has however entirely changed its spots and is now unrecognisable for what it was, but this has hardly yet been noticed by the professionals. Savvy PI's have however quietly lifted the share price from 105p in August, then 130p in December, and now at 199p, when it seems to be about to break out more steeply.

The turning point for EEN was clearly the appointing of the very experienced oil man Alistair Beardsall as Chairman, and Edward Grace as FD in August 2003 with replacement of the rest of the board in Jan'Feb '04. (CVs at the end)

It usually takes a good 6 -18 months (and one report/set of accounts for H1 or FY)
for the market to notice the three signals:


that something fundamental has changed,

that the change is vastly for the better, that it is now safe to buy,

and thus, that now is the time to buy - by which time it is always a bit late.

Any minute now, the promised drilling and production reports, followed by the first prelims since the new board's radical strategy got going, will provide the City with a wake-up call. Then EVO may produce a Brokers Note more reflective of a professional adviser than the current unhelpful single sheet offered. Until brokers have an authoritative document to blame when things go wrong, they will not want to change their stance and recommend the share. This gives Private Investors still time to buy before the lemmings push the price up beyond sensible values. But that is a long way ahead.

With production in H2 likely to average around 8800 bopd, double our cautious H1 estimate of 4408 bopd - and an oil price received at $36/barrel, T/O for the year would be $87.12m; with an Operating Profit of 8.46m possible in H1, and 17.25 in H2. Capitalisation is only 97m. With heavy losses carried forward tax should be low and the PE around 4.

It is instructive to compare with Burren. Over the whole of 2005 EEN looks like
averaging at the very least 6600 bopd - 45% of the Burren 14,200 bopd average for 2004. Burren cap is today 658m, 45% of which is 296m - indicative of where EEN might be by this time next year ie x3 times its current cap of 99m.

A clearer picture will emerge with reports due on the two newly drilled Campo Rico wells in the second half of February.

Vast change in operating profit to come from March '05During H1 Cost of Sales was $15.35/barrel against an achieved average oil price of $28.28 giving a gross margin of $12.93/barrel (45.7%). But by March 2005 production will rise sharply, and with a received oil price above $36/barrel, this CoS
would leave at least $20.65/barrel (57.4%) as gross margin on sales of $3.46
m/month ie $1.99m/month.

With the new management keeping a very tight ship, Admin costs will not have risen much over 2004 if at all - say by 10% to $0.30m/month - leaving operating profit of $1.69m/month from say early April -easily sufficient to finance the cost of drilling a new exploration well each month.

At $36.barrel received, each new well should contribute $620,000/month for every 1000bopd production with expectations lying between 750 and 3000bopd per
successful well. With the two development wells Campo Rico 2 and 3 about to
produce any day now, there is some excitement ahead of the actual figures, which could add anything from 500bopd to 2000/pd from the start, and ramp up over the next 3-6 months to anything up to 3,500 - 5000/bopd.

Further drilling program


There will soon be, every month, an average of more than one well being spudded, and one well being completed. Two further exploration wells, nearby, are to be spudded this month: Vigia , only 8km to the East," a step out prospect, and a look-alike, although looking bigger than Campo Rico should hit target depth by the beginning of April" according to Chairman Alastair Beardsall;. at the end of March drilling results are awaited from Algarrobo, next to an existing field, 35km NW, where EEN has earned 50% of the output by farming in and doing the drilling. If the Vigia well is successful, EEN will quickly drill a further series in the area.

On 18 December 2003 EEN announced the award of rights in the Fortuna contract
area in the Middle Magdalena Basin covering 21,907 hectares. Emerald's initial work has identified a shallow (+/- 1,500m) Tertiary exploration target in the Lisama formation with a potential 18 mmbbls of recoverable oil. There is also a deeper (+/- 2,500m) Cretaceous accumulation of oil in the La Luna formation that has produced 0.8 mmbbl of oil and 0.3 bcf of gas to date. The La Luna is estimated to contain 19 mmbbls of recoverable oil. The first exploration well is expected to be drilled this Spring. If successful, seven further wells are planned.

The Gigante well where 'oil in place' exceeds 350m barrels but which has given so much trouble in the past, is being left to a later date when finances are more secure, when it may be re-drilled.. It continues to provide 750 bopd and the $500,000 cashflow crucial initially to reviving the business. Properly re-drilled it would have the highest output of all the wells

Strategic change

If the Gigante disaster was due to human error, those responsible have been moved on. The company is totally different in its personality. Instead of timid, slow, and ineffectual, it is now bold and quick and forceful. With the completely new Board has come a winning business model: raise cash -spend it MUCH faster on drilling more wells in the right places to multiply the cash flow - walk away from the lesser prospects to concentrate on the lowest risk/highest upside for exploratory drilling.Raise more cash and invest it to spread the territorial risk -negotiate actively and well, for additional area with lower risk and higher prospects....

General background

Over the past year Emerald's strategy has been to re-focus its exploration from the high risk, high cost for high reward areas of the Middle and Upper Magdalena Valley to lower risk, lower cost opportunities in the Colombian Llanos. The Llanos Basin is the most important area of oil production in Colombia: in addition to its two super-giants (Cusiana and Cano Limon) there are many other fields whose relatively small size (10-30 MMbbl recoverable) is more than compensated for by very high flow rates and high recovery levels.

Flow rates of up to 3,000 bopd from individual wells have been achieved in these smaller fields. These are made possible by high quality reservoirs - the pure quartz sandstones of the Carbonera, Mirador, Barco, Guadalupe Gacheta and Une formations - which all have outstanding porosity and permeability characteristics. An active regional aquifer provides water drive.

The success rate of Llanos wells basin wide is, by worldwide industry standards, very high at around 50 per cent. Well-developed export infrastructure, low production costs, and increased reservoir understanding greatly enhance the economics of Llanos developments. Also, it is a general observation that because of a combination of difficult logs, overbalanced mud, bad hole conditions and equivocal test data in the old wells, re-drills often achieve success.

The surprising Russian Deal

OIn 11 November an RNS disclosed an all paper deal with Star Capital Research to acquire a 25 per cent stake in JSC Krasnoyarskgazprom (KGP) in return for 12
million new ordinary shares of 10p each. KGP, controlled by Russian gas giant
Gazprom, holds rights to explore in the Sobin, Omorin and Beryambin licence areas in Eastern Siberia. The Sobin licence, where more than 50 wells have been drilled to date, is estimated under the Russian system of reserve classification to hold the equivalent of 575 million barrels of oil.

The Omorin licence area is currently being explored and, to date, four wells have encountered hydrocarbons. Beryambin is virtually unexplored.

Beardsall, while aware of the commercial risks attached to Russian investments, is confident that the company has the experience and relationships to avoid some of the high profile problems that have afflicted fellow British E&P players in the hydrocarbon-rich but notoriously difficult country.

Russia is a place where theres a lot of discovered reserves so instead of
exploration risk, the risk lies in the project timing and access to pipelines, said Beardsall. Its a different type of risk. You have to be careful doing business in any country in the world and Russia is probably a little bit more difficult but its not as difficult as most people perceive. The board here has a total of 30-odd years of experience in Russia and several of us have longstanding relationships with very influential Russian players.

The company has been careful to avoid a cash deal in Russia, and the buyer is
locked into EEN shares for two years so it is in the interests of both to make this transaction work.


The Russian deal which brings in global heavyweights like Shafranik chairman of the Russian Council of Oil Producers, and head of Soyuzneftgaz, as well as
previously Yeltsin's Minister of Fuel and Energy, and a 25% share of a Gazprom
subsidiary contains more than meets the eye. What's in it for Gazprom, who receive no cash - just 12m shares in EEN? If it is access to S.America then Gazprom must be anxious to put some weight behind Emerald.

It has been said that the same people as are involved in KGP have bought into First Calgary Petroleum (FPL) a 1400+ company Their intentions are said to be to build Emerald into a much bigger company than FPL.

Emerald's new controlling shareholders appear to have very ambitious plans.
Emerald CEO Alastair Beardsall is also heavily involved in First Calgary, whose
shares have gone from 50p three years ago to 10.30 today and is now said to be in merger talks.

The value of this large and mysterious deal is long term and is not yet reflected in the EEN share price.

Important RNS notices are expected any day as the Campo Rico wells come on
production. The report on these wells will help to firm up forecasts for 2005, and if we can we will update this coverage asap

The executives

Alastair Beardsall Chairman and Chief Executive app 15 Aug 03 has been in the oil industry since 1981.

His first 12 years were on international assignments with Schlumberger, the oil-field services company.

At first he worked for small independent operators as a technical manager, then a project manager and finally holding overall responsibility for specific exploration, development and production ventures.

He was a non exec at Sibir, and currently a non-exec of First Calgary Petroleum Ltd.

Edward Grace FD app 15 Aug '03 has over 10 years experience as corporate
finance advisor and management consultant to international clients across a range of industrial sectors.

Recently, as Director of Investment Banking with Lehman Brothers, he raised capital in private and public capital markets to fund mergers and acquisitions he advised to
growth companies. Earlier he was a management consultant with Accenture, formerly Andersen Consulting,and was involved in project work for some of the largest energy companies in the UK. He was also a non-exec at Waterford.

Paul Ellis: COO app 5th Jan '04 has over 30 years in the oil industry as a
petroleum/reservoir engineer and technical executive with B P, Elf, and Charterhouse Petroleum. At PanCanadian Petroleum, and B G, he was Director of International Exploration and Production.

He has lived in the UK, Libya, Alaska, Abu Dhabi and Canada.

NON-EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS

Keith Henry app 6 Feb '04 was with Brown & Root Limited for 23 years, the last five as CEO for Europe, Africa and FSU. From '95 to '99 he was CEO of National Power Plc, and then of Kvaerner Engineering and Construction Ltd until end 02.

So for 33 years he worked in the development, ownership, design and construction of major projects worldwide.

Fred Ponsonby - app 15 Aug '03 - recently with LASMO plc as a senior petroleum
engineer; and with Phibro Energy, a subsidiary of Salomon Brothers, as Technical Manager responsible for international E&P projects. He has a parallel career in British and European politics.

Merfyn Roberts - app 15 Aug '03 has a BSc in geology and an MSc in geochemistry. Starting as a geologist working in the UK and North Africa, he then qualified as a chartered accountant in '80, and became an investment manager/director specialising in the resource sectors. In '90 he joined Minorco SA to manage Minorcos in-house equity funds.

In 1996 he managed Dragon Natural Resources Ltd, which was acquired by a
Canadian group in 2000. He is currently an exec director of Ocean Resources
Capital Holdings plc and a non-exec of Resources Investment Trust plc

Shafranik, Kroupeev, Gazprom

Shafranik isn't too far away from such matters, as chairman of the Russian Council of Oil Producers, and head of Soyuzneftgaz, prviously Yeltsin's Minister of Fuel and Energy




Good luck every body no need to get nervous,only with excitement come over
visit us it's a good thread with plenty of knowledge on EEN

Regards
DFGO

Thanks DFGO - very interesting. We'll all do very well out of their Columbian interests. The Russian angle is intriguing - the 12m shares issued to them is already part of the 49.53m shares in issue, you say - hence their effective "controlling" 24.2% interest. Let's hope they don't want to buy us out too early!

Look forward to drilling report and results
.

SD

moving up today something about to break we hope ???

on the move again even without the news not much chance of it this week as they dont issue news on a friday if history tells you anything but there is always the first time

Does anyone know if InvestorsChronicle have done an update on EEN? They tipped it about a couple of months ago and since then it has got upto 2.40 without any news. With drilling news imminent, now would be a good time to tip it again before the next surge.

no news so far but decent company and the news will come be patient

Surprise!Surprise! No movement in this today. Can't remember a day when it hasn't moved at all. Is this suspicious?

profitmaker - no update from IC since the article on 17th Sept

should someone ask them why ?