Why are we again at 10.5p bid?

It doesn't add up...

Good Results + Strong buying pre results + Christmas online buying soon = Price drop

Then again some companies that have debt for equity hanging in the balance, poor results and bankruptcy around the corner and they go up!

Why sell now at a loss?

Wont that be a kick in the teeth when we see 13.5p 14p again!

Best of luck all.

Evening all

just back from a hard day stripping plaster off walls!!!

nice to see another blue day - both here and at dnx my other main holding

Douggie, I have a rusty old postwar Raleigh two wheeler. Does about one mile to the glass. Thought of extending it with another saddle. It is only just new than me!!!! *8+)












If you believe this, You will believe anything!!!


But its been a nice day, hope for higher volumes and price up to-morrow.
If you are running Stop losses watch the spread it might catch you.

Retail Decisions Launches Evolutionary Technology in the Fight Against Retail Fraud
Tuesday January 18, 8:15 am ET


HAZLET, N.J., Jan. 18 /PRNewswire/ -- Retail Decisions (ReD), an international provider of payment processing and fraud prevention services to the retail, banking, telecom and e-commerce sectors, announced two product enhancements for its fraud prevention service, ebitGuard(TM). Designed for enterprise-class high volume merchants in the card-not-present (CNP) space, the integration of ReD's PRISM neural technology and Dynamic Data Validation will bring an even higher level of security to retail fraud prevention.
According to recent studies, annual incidences of credit card fraud involving CNP transactions are rising at an alarming pace -- more than 700 percent between 1998 and 2003. Many industry experts forecast a continued rise in fraudulent card activity due primarily to the introduction of Chip and PIN technology in Europe and increases in online retailing in the U.S., which will force more fraudsters away from traditional in-store shopping to prey on mail order, online, or over the phone transactions.

The new enhancements to ebitGuard leverage the science of neural technology to address the rising occurrence and shifting trends of credit card fraud. Specifically, the enhancements will provide mass retailers with the following:

* PRISM neural technology (groups of complex statistical algorithms) is
able to detect abnormal cardholder behavior, distinguish subtle
differences manifested by fraudulent orders compared to superficially
similar valid orders. Simultaneously, PRISM incrementally learns new
purchasing behavior or pattern changes adapting its model and
intelligence resulting in a dynamic system that detects emerging fraud
schemes.

* Dynamic Data Validation matches a consumer's billing and shipping
information with multiple public records. Additionally, Dynamic Data
Validation is able to find additional profitable sales opportunities in
AVS and CVV failures. After integrating and testing Dynamic Data
Validation, ReD was able to demonstrate as much as a further 30 percent
reduction of transactions that were recommended for manual review.

Carl Clump, CEO of Retail Decisions plc, stated: "As a market-leading service provider catering to the needs of the world's top CNP retailers, ReD continually strives to innovate, create and expand its services to provide clients with the most advanced fraud prevention technology."

In addition to preventing fraud, PRISM and Dynamic Data Validation will dramatically increase approval rates and top line revenue for retailers. ebitGuard, which is monitored by ReD's experienced team of fraud analysts 24 x 7 x 365, processes transactions through merchant-specific rules, negative card and email databases, pattern and velocity detection engines, among other components, and returns a dynamic recommendation (Accept, Deny or Challenge) in less than one second.

Clump added, "PRISM's superior cardholder behavior profiling enables our clients to fast track the transactions of repeat customers decreasing their manual reviews. Additionally, Dynamic Data Validation allows merchants to match their customers against multiple public records. Combined, these two new components will provide merchants with the ability to grow their businesses more quickly and confidently than ever before."

ReD's PRISM technology currently protects payment processors and financial institutions around the world. ReD's risk management and payment processing clients include: The Royal Bank of Canada, Macy's.com, The Finish Line, Inc., GSI Commerce, Walmart.com, GE Capital, Buy.com, Netflix, RealNetworks and Travelocity.com

About Retail Decisions

Retail Decisions, Inc. (ReD USA) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Retail Decisions plc.

Retail Decisions is an international electronic payment transaction services business that provides fraud prevention, enterprise-wide payment processing and value-added transaction and consulting services to the retail, finance, telecommunications and e-commerce sectors. ReD is able to predict and prevent payment card fraud, process high volumes of credit card and electronic check transactions and has a platform for a full range of transaction based value-added services.

ReD has more than 16 years experience in payment card risk management and processing services with operations in the United States, Europe, South Africa and Australia.

Another day of the small guy selling, the MMs keeping the price down and then the big boys picking up 1.4m shares at the close

;o\

Just posted on another board :


All

Excellent news on Bloomberg UK channel
504, just stated:-

According to the WSJ. ( Wall Street Journal )

Federated owner of Macy's and Bloomingdales,
and RTD client, is to buy May department stores
for $9bn.
This will take Federated to 1000 department stores.

May will also have a web site which RTD will then
protect, this is another client win for RTD, in
a roundabout way to the tune of $9bn.

No wonder the big buys were buying big
in the past few days.

see the pattern is continuing - someone purchase 1.1m yesterday and another buy of 575k today - still the smaller sells and the bigger buys

looking like start to possitive week........ooooops hope I haven't put the lurgy on it.

Pity posts dried up here...not a lot to say is there...just quietly pleased with progres ;o\

Douggie

quiet time until results - if last yr anything to go on should be first week in march. hopefully will get an rns with the date this/next week. only other news prior to that will be further contract wins (now likely to be with results), holdings rns or techmark100 entry.

douggie

looks like you gave it impetus rather than the lurgy - trying to break out again?

:o)))))) ......................!

Had these for just short of a year. Its been a real rollercoaster unti recently. Now its up up and away. How high will these go? Any thoughts?

B2B

B2B - I really cannot see these exceeding 38p before announcement of results (unless of course there is an interim trading update or announcement of another big contract) but I am happy to be proved wrong. I almost sold on Friday so currently very happy .

Pach I tend to agree these wont go that high prior to results - personally i hope thats the case otherwise they are likely to hit the shorters radar for post results.

In setting a target price the difficulty is that since they said they will materially exceed year end forecasts, even the house broker havent updated their foreacst so it is difficult to estimate profits and hence eps.

Persoanlly i am hoping for a basic eps of 2p (initial f/cast were for 1.4p). If that is tghe case then we would be looking at a pe ratio of 17 (at a price of 34p) and a peg of less than 0.1 (pe 17, yoy growth 300%). The key to the price post results is likely to be the following year forecast for profit

i will do some more calcs and post later

Many thanks for that Fundamentalist. When are the results out?

Should expect an rns this week or next to give exact date but based on history, their results are normally announced first week in march

Looking forward to results and trying to determine fair price i have run a number of scenarios. All are based on basic eps (not adjusted) and IMHO!!!

Based on the current share price, i have calculated what the PER and PEG would be on a number of potential EPS results. The lowest figure i have used is 1.4p basic eps which equates to the house broker forecast, prior to the announcement that results would be materially in excess of expectations hence we can safely assume it is likely to be at least 1.8p. My only concern regarding estimating the eps figure is we dont know what the ammortisation figure will be and that the tax rate will still be relatively high

EPS PE Ratio PEG factor

1.4p 23.9 0.13
1.6p 20.9 0.10
1.8p 18.6 0.07
2.0p 16.8 0.06
2.2p 15.2 0.05
2.4p 14.0 0.04


On the basis of my estimated eps of 2.0p, that would give this year eps growth of 300%. On this levels of growth it is fair to assume that a fair pe ratio would be 20+ and could even be 30 (cybersource is currently on a much higher rating in the states).

Below i have listed a table of what the share price would be based on a combination of potential eps and pe ratios


Eps PER 15 PER 20 PER 25 PER 30

1.4 21p 28p 35p 42p
1.6 24p 32p 40p 48p
1.8 27p 36p 45p 54p
2.0 30p 40p 50p 60p
2.2 33p 44p 55p 66p
2.4 36p 48p 60p 72p


My personal expectation is for an EPS of approx 2p per share and feel that a PER of 25 is fair for a share with current and future growth rates. This gets me to a nice round target figure of 50p post results

This is my best guess at this yr results possibilities. It would be interesting to see what this would look like in another years time. Even based on a conservative forecast of 50% growth next year would give 3p basic eps and on a pe ratio of 25 would get us to 75p. (100% growth gives 100p!!!!) I am not saying that this is where the share price will be but it does show what is possible with the current rates of growth and RTDs strong position in the various anti fraud areas (as well as the cash cow fuel card business).


What figures/share price are others expecting?

Fundy, my "gut feel" is giving me the same sort of figures - your calculations look very realistic to me.

Steady long term growth is what we need from now on and those planning on staying the course I'm sure will be reaping the benefits of seeing RTD at 1+ in a couple of years time.

Fund - thanks for the various sp scenarios. I think eps @ 2p is probably a bit high as the original rns used the words "materially in excess" which suggests a max of 1.8p to my mind (purely intuitive). The difficulty with drawing comparisons with Cyber is that RTD's petrol card business is the big milch cow at present but cannot hope to maintain 25%+ growth rates - analysts hate hybrid companies because comparisons are always harder and therefore their estimates are inevitably conservative in prospective PE terms. However, if 1.8 eps is achieved, and the outlook is positive, then I would have to say that 45p is achievable for end of March. I must admit that I was tempted to sell on the GS news but pleased, at present, that I did not. Best of luck.

pachandl - "sell on the GS news" ??????

They were simply "top slicing" after making decent gains quickly - good money management.

The really telling thing is what they haven't sold! This means that they are confident that RTD will continue to give them gains for some time to come, which in turn is sure to attract the interest of other institutions.

Don't forget that the TM100 beckons...