Why are we again at 10.5p bid?

It doesn't add up...

Good Results + Strong buying pre results + Christmas online buying soon = Price drop

Then again some companies that have debt for equity hanging in the balance, poor results and bankruptcy around the corner and they go up!

Why sell now at a loss?

Wont that be a kick in the teeth when we see 13.5p 14p again!

Best of luck all.

Another day of the small guy selling, the MMs keeping the price down and then the big boys picking up 1.4m shares at the close

;o\

Just posted on another board :


All

Excellent news on Bloomberg UK channel
504, just stated:-

According to the WSJ. ( Wall Street Journal )

Federated owner of Macy's and Bloomingdales,
and RTD client, is to buy May department stores
for $9bn.
This will take Federated to 1000 department stores.

May will also have a web site which RTD will then
protect, this is another client win for RTD, in
a roundabout way to the tune of $9bn.

No wonder the big buys were buying big
in the past few days.

see the pattern is continuing - someone purchase 1.1m yesterday and another buy of 575k today - still the smaller sells and the bigger buys

looking like start to possitive week........ooooops hope I haven't put the lurgy on it.

Pity posts dried up here...not a lot to say is there...just quietly pleased with progres ;o\

Douggie

quiet time until results - if last yr anything to go on should be first week in march. hopefully will get an rns with the date this/next week. only other news prior to that will be further contract wins (now likely to be with results), holdings rns or techmark100 entry.

douggie

looks like you gave it impetus rather than the lurgy - trying to break out again?

:o)))))) ......................!

Had these for just short of a year. Its been a real rollercoaster unti recently. Now its up up and away. How high will these go? Any thoughts?

B2B

B2B - I really cannot see these exceeding 38p before announcement of results (unless of course there is an interim trading update or announcement of another big contract) but I am happy to be proved wrong. I almost sold on Friday so currently very happy .

Pach I tend to agree these wont go that high prior to results - personally i hope thats the case otherwise they are likely to hit the shorters radar for post results.

In setting a target price the difficulty is that since they said they will materially exceed year end forecasts, even the house broker havent updated their foreacst so it is difficult to estimate profits and hence eps.

Persoanlly i am hoping for a basic eps of 2p (initial f/cast were for 1.4p). If that is tghe case then we would be looking at a pe ratio of 17 (at a price of 34p) and a peg of less than 0.1 (pe 17, yoy growth 300%). The key to the price post results is likely to be the following year forecast for profit

i will do some more calcs and post later

Many thanks for that Fundamentalist. When are the results out?

Should expect an rns this week or next to give exact date but based on history, their results are normally announced first week in march

Looking forward to results and trying to determine fair price i have run a number of scenarios. All are based on basic eps (not adjusted) and IMHO!!!

Based on the current share price, i have calculated what the PER and PEG would be on a number of potential EPS results. The lowest figure i have used is 1.4p basic eps which equates to the house broker forecast, prior to the announcement that results would be materially in excess of expectations hence we can safely assume it is likely to be at least 1.8p. My only concern regarding estimating the eps figure is we dont know what the ammortisation figure will be and that the tax rate will still be relatively high

EPS PE Ratio PEG factor

1.4p 23.9 0.13
1.6p 20.9 0.10
1.8p 18.6 0.07
2.0p 16.8 0.06
2.2p 15.2 0.05
2.4p 14.0 0.04


On the basis of my estimated eps of 2.0p, that would give this year eps growth of 300%. On this levels of growth it is fair to assume that a fair pe ratio would be 20+ and could even be 30 (cybersource is currently on a much higher rating in the states).

Below i have listed a table of what the share price would be based on a combination of potential eps and pe ratios


Eps PER 15 PER 20 PER 25 PER 30

1.4 21p 28p 35p 42p
1.6 24p 32p 40p 48p
1.8 27p 36p 45p 54p
2.0 30p 40p 50p 60p
2.2 33p 44p 55p 66p
2.4 36p 48p 60p 72p


My personal expectation is for an EPS of approx 2p per share and feel that a PER of 25 is fair for a share with current and future growth rates. This gets me to a nice round target figure of 50p post results

This is my best guess at this yr results possibilities. It would be interesting to see what this would look like in another years time. Even based on a conservative forecast of 50% growth next year would give 3p basic eps and on a pe ratio of 25 would get us to 75p. (100% growth gives 100p!!!!) I am not saying that this is where the share price will be but it does show what is possible with the current rates of growth and RTDs strong position in the various anti fraud areas (as well as the cash cow fuel card business).


What figures/share price are others expecting?

Fundy, my "gut feel" is giving me the same sort of figures - your calculations look very realistic to me.

Steady long term growth is what we need from now on and those planning on staying the course I'm sure will be reaping the benefits of seeing RTD at 1+ in a couple of years time.

Fund - thanks for the various sp scenarios. I think eps @ 2p is probably a bit high as the original rns used the words "materially in excess" which suggests a max of 1.8p to my mind (purely intuitive). The difficulty with drawing comparisons with Cyber is that RTD's petrol card business is the big milch cow at present but cannot hope to maintain 25%+ growth rates - analysts hate hybrid companies because comparisons are always harder and therefore their estimates are inevitably conservative in prospective PE terms. However, if 1.8 eps is achieved, and the outlook is positive, then I would have to say that 45p is achievable for end of March. I must admit that I was tempted to sell on the GS news but pleased, at present, that I did not. Best of luck.

pachandl - "sell on the GS news" ??????

They were simply "top slicing" after making decent gains quickly - good money management.

The really telling thing is what they haven't sold! This means that they are confident that RTD will continue to give them gains for some time to come, which in turn is sure to attract the interest of other institutions.

Don't forget that the TM100 beckons...

Interesting coment from stengo on iii:

"With a market cap of approx 97m and some trackers and radar screens set to a minimum 100m, things could start hotting up a bit once this figure has been breached. There might, perhaps, be a mm resistance to this.

Nige, Teather and Greenwood, last year I think, had 1.09 or 1.29 as an intrinsic value to the share price and that, they say, may be undervaluing RTD at that price. Things have improved through the year and maybe the figure now needs revising.

In my own opinion, not basing the share price on fundementals, I think that the current share price has still far to go based on its business model. But, as they say, time will tell."

Comment elsewhere that IG are not taking any spreadbets currently as they have 2% of the company!

Come on Douggie say something or are you running around in that new car. If it rtd crashes through 35p to-morrow next stop 40p . Still 8 weeks to prelims on 2/3/05.
In the meantime, see if you can wave your magic wand over BPRG for me. Needs a little push from you!!