rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

Indicators are all still heading south, lower highs, lower lows on both FTSE & DOW. The trend is clear, imo.

Great, just trade them then if the moves are big enough.

as always, it's the timing that is so difficult

comment from IG .......

The FTSE 100 is once again tasting the rarified air above the 6000 level. A note of caution should be expressed with these good moves however, as equity volumes for the FTSE remain particularly low at only two-thirds of last week’s trading.

Thursday offers plenty of opportunities for market surprises with Chinese inflation, the start of an EU summit and an extensive list of corporate data releases not to mention reaction to tonight’s FOMC minutes.

Up or down then today chaps?

Ex-divi day + unemployment claims in the US.........probably down, imo.

Ah yes ex-divi day, and quite a heavy one.

Not much indication yet, if any.

i have taken a couple of modest profits in some trading stocks and am now running FTSE short as much as a hedge as anything else

i trust these markets not one little bit

I don't know about trusting them, but they certainly are undecided at the mo.

Down we go then.

Blimey! I was right then??? Only just, but might do the lottery this week based on that! ;o)

Not so fast Harry.. the poxy thing's stalled again -):

strange how quickly sentiment changes
DOW is having a burst for glory and has just gone north of 16,500

Dow futures up, but only just.

cash DOW is still +48 (after +85) and hovering around 16,500

Had to cut a loss this morning but recouped with some on top for much relief and out for overnight.

After FTSE 100 breakout, where next?




By Alistair Strang | Thu, 18th February 2016 - 09:35

Share this


After FTSE 100 breakout, where next?

We keep promising ourselves only to discuss the FTSE 100 (UKX) a couple of times a week, but recent shambolic moves require coverage. Hopefully, just hopefully, the movements experienced on the 17th actually have some real implications.

There was a strange phenomena with the shares we cover daily, and on the 16th we discovered only three that actually needed an update. While we padded our output with a few more, we gave the caveat of "this sort of thing often being a precursor to a change in market direction".

It appears we were correct.

The market had been trading in a region where the logical bottom was 4,950 with the result of us frantically looking for valid escape attempts. Our Wednesday lunchtime calculation for clients highlighted something exceedingly strange and it's reproduced below:


UK FTSE: Price at time 11:23AM of production 5957 Trade Type: LONG . Entry: 5960 Exit: Safe exit at 5981 or longer term secondary at 6199 Minimum Stop (in our opinion): 5922 Number of Points in Trade: 21 Secondary looks a bit unlikely

The reason for the 218-point gap between the primary target and the secondary was simple. Once the market started trading above 5,981, it officially broke trend - essentially moving from a near-term perspective to a Big Picture perspective. We'd require clown suits and red noses to accept 6,199 is expected anytime soon, experience teaching us that when something breaks trend, a new trend develops.

FTSE 100

Don't get us wrong, the market has moved from "going down" territory into "not going down" territory, so optimism is permitted. The FTSE Futures market has, at the time of writing [23:12 Wednesday], bettered 6,040 and we're tending to suspect that the initial breakout ambition might be 6,080 points. If above such a level, we're probably going to need the drool wiped off our keyboards as even our 6,199 calculates as slightly conservative!

Importantly, in this week, we've seen the first signals the market has actually bottomed with retail banking exhibiting what passes for integrity with recent rises, along with the food retailers showing surprising strength. The builders seem a bit dodgy still and the oil sector seems only to be favoured amongst a few companies. And of course, the miners appear to have stopped digging holes for their victims' investments.

All this leads us to one conclusion and it's of the UK needing a Valentine's Day every week to drive optimism... Or maybe not. But the market would now need below 5,890 to scare us silly again!

Update:

The Futures suggestion against the FTSE 100 in the Futures Section is insane, but there are currently no sensible target levels between 6,080 and 6,275. If we switch to the 'actual' FTSE itself, the 6,199 thing intrudes, but it is still one heck of a jump.

The problem comes from the large drop on February 8th as it tossed an extra 220 points into the arguments. We'll hopefully be able to make more sense by lunchtime.

This article is for information and discussion purposes only and does not form a recommendation to invest or otherwise. The value of an investment may fall. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser.

don't know when that article was dated/timed, but SOUTH is the order of the day, and probably even more heavily tomorrow

my money and mouth are already married and may extend

That article is just opinion cynic, I'm still bearish.