cynic
- 20 Oct 2007 12:12
rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.
for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ
for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance
Stan
- 22 Feb 2016 16:26
- 20236 of 21973
Don't forget that there is a wall of money in fund managers coffers that has to go somewhere, so any slight movement may be exaggerated because of this.
jimmy b
- 22 Feb 2016 16:28
- 20237 of 21973
And would they be throwing it in to the markets running up to a huge decision like the one we face ? i may be wrong on that who knows .
Chris Carson
- 22 Feb 2016 16:33
- 20238 of 21973
Why FTSE 100 rally is 'very possible'
By Alistair Strang | Mon, 22nd February 2016 - 10:14
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Chartist Alistair Strang tells us why a FTSE 100 rally is 'very possible' The week ahead should be entertaining, as the prospect of the UK leaving Europe is bound to energise the markets. If we are to leave Europe, perhaps we could go somewhere with a better climate, though!
It was interesting, on Friday, that we'd given a drop potential to 5,900 against the FTSE 100 (UKX), but the lowest the market attained proved to be 5,916. Similarly, a high of 6,001 was not sufficiently close to 6,010 to permit an upward break. The day ended with us drawing the conclusion the markets were not showing any real direction.
We shall take the attitude this week is starting with a clean slate - so what does the "big picture" expect?
Currently, it appears we are to believe the FTSE now wants to head to 6,300. The UK market must fall below 5,800 to scrub the arithmetic behind such a prospect. Obviously, while anything now below 5,916 remains hoping for some sort of bounce at the 5,900 level and any failure to bounce should now anticipate 5865, it takes the UK dangerously close to our party-spoiling 5,800 level.
Alternately, above just 6,001 betters Friday's high and hints at growth to 6,032, with secondary now 6,071. This sort of thing emplaces the UK firmly in an area where 6,300 is very possible.
graph 1
What if 5,800 breaks? This would be a bad thing, as it threatens 5,725 initially with secondary 5,620. Perhaps, more importantly, it takes the market right back into the zone with a bottom logically at 4,950, which stinks. We're slightly comforted by the lack of our drop target being achieved on Friday as hopefully it implies hidden strength. And, as the chart above highlights, the FTSE has managed to regain above red, the uptrend since 2009.
Expect the unexpected
Unfortunately, recent experience with the Scottish Referendum thing taught us to expect the unexpected. The market will doubtless use political pronouncements from both sides of the debate to drive hysterical movements while they try and convince the entire country that BMW (BMW), Mercedes (DAI), and VW (VOW) will stop supplying cars to the UK unless it remains in the EU.
Additionally, Brent crude will founder, as no-one will wish to purchase the UK's oil output. Due to living through the ridiculous "project fear" of the Scottish thing, we fear it will prove a dress rehearsal for the coming EU referendum and doubtless cause chaos on the markets, along with foreign exchange and sterling.
In summary: above 6,010 equals "good". Otherwise, below 5,800 equals "bad". And anything any politician says equals "bad". And if the week starts with a Monday, it will probably be bad too!
This article is for information and discussion purposes only and does not form a recommendation to invest or otherwise. The value of an investment may fall. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser.
Stan
- 22 Feb 2016 16:33
- 20239 of 21973
They can't sit on funds indefinitely with the end of year coming up, this downturn started before Xmas and time must be running out for them.
Fred1new
- 22 Feb 2016 17:00
- 20240 of 21973
The pound is being devalued.
Exports cheaper.
Or the pound is being sold, or being dumped in expectation of exit.
cynic
- 22 Feb 2016 17:27
- 20241 of 21973
£ is being sold, though i find it interesting that it has lost quite a lot of ground vs € as well
HARRYCAT
- 22 Feb 2016 20:23
- 20242 of 21973
.
Stan
- 23 Feb 2016 07:36
- 20243 of 21973
Looking like an early down start for the FT with BLT posting a big loss and divi cut. Oil down as well.
cynic
- 23 Feb 2016 08:09
- 20244 of 21973
ran a small DOW short yesterday evening but lacked the balls (had the sense!) to run it o'night
banked a very small profit, but of course it would have been rather juicy by this morning
jimmy b
- 23 Feb 2016 09:09
- 20245 of 21973
The FTSE doesn't really want to go down does it .
2517GEORGE
- 23 Feb 2016 10:34
- 20246 of 21973
NEWS
FTSE down as profiteers hit miners; STAN shocks----What's he done now?
2517
jimmy b
- 23 Feb 2016 10:36
- 20247 of 21973
Don't say Stan's upset the markets as well !!
Stan
- 23 Feb 2016 13:39
- 20248 of 21973
Been out so nothing to do with me chaps, but if me going out does move the market I'm happy to oblige.. for a very large fee of course.
By the way 76 posts on the Tory Muppet thread I notice.. so what are you lot griping about now?
Stan
- 23 Feb 2016 14:07
- 20249 of 21973
Dow, Oil and £ futures all level'ish if I have it right.
cynic
- 23 Feb 2016 16:26
- 20250 of 21973
i was out and easily missed DOW crashing through support levels at ~16,560 and ~16,510
next stop is 16,400 followed by 16,275
currently 16,450
Stan
- 23 Feb 2016 16:37
- 20251 of 21973
My FT short came good at last at just gone 4.. to my relief I may add.
cynic
- 23 Feb 2016 16:39
- 20252 of 21973
further south to go yet i reckon, though maybe not tomorrow ..... hard to know
Stan
- 24 Feb 2016 07:44
- 20253 of 21973
Another down start this morning by the looks for the FT100.
cynic
- 24 Feb 2016 10:25
- 20254 of 21973
:-))
started the day well :-))
jimmy b
- 24 Feb 2016 10:29
- 20255 of 21973
I have not touched indices this week ,is this a small wobble or are we going back to 5500 with the FTSE .