ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

taken from elsewhere.
Asos note from Kaupthing

PM: A trip to HQ leads us to believe a number of growth initiatives we recently speculated about (note, 11 February) could come sooner rather than later. ASOSs position as the leading pure play e-tailer is likely to be cemented further in our view. With forward growth rates conservatively struck we see scope for more upgrades over the next 6 months and are upgrading our target price to 350p from 310p.
Investor Visit To HQ Puts Spotlight on Growth Opportunity
Yesterday we accompanied investors on a very impressive site visit to its HQ. The CEO and FD were clearly upbeat about ASOSs prospects. There is a pre-close trading update due towards the end of April and prelims are in June. Upgrades are a possibility. Based on current conservative projections, the stock is trading on 23.5x to March 2009, falling to 17x and 12x thereafter. This is not a high street retailer and as such has completely different financial dynamics. Prior to any upgrades, the 3 year CAGR (EPS) is over 50% and cash is being generated. Despite recent strength this remains a key pick and ahead of upcoming news we are upgrading our price target by 13% to 350p.
Organic Growth Rates to Benefit From New Initiatives
ASOS believes the 3 core planks to success are Choice, Presentation and Delivery (including Returns). They have worked hard on all these areas and find themselves moving ahead of the competition, which in terms of pure play e-tailing is surprisingly thin. Online shopping behaviour plays into the hands of ASOS and, as the offer continues to broaden out, their competitive advantage will be cemented further. New technology development will soon enable customer personalisation, aiding customer expansion. ASOS currently has relatively few customers and low average spend metrics - both are set for substantial growth on the back of this very scaleable high margin model.
The UK clothing market is worth 40bn. Surveys indicate online could take 10% of this in time. Online Retail is all about being a 1-stop-shop as evidenced by the success of eBay/Amazon and ASOS has the scope to be the fashion equivalent. It is already the second most visited UK fashion website, and the platform is extremely scaleable. They will continue to broaden the product offer, adding new product categories, a clearance channel and even auctions. ASOS has been successfully enhancing its management team. Caren Downie, ex Top Shop, is the latest hire. There are more on the way to drive the growth.
Possible next steps include Free Returns, which may lift returns rates to c30% but could generate an extra 15-20% of sales. A separate Brand Clearance site could offer a strong online alternative to TK Maxx (>1bn sales). New resource in CRM means they are about to become a lot more potent in how they segment customers and market directly. Overseas deliveries represent 10% of sales already, despite no marketing effort. Given ASOS can replicate the platform, International could add value in the future. Ongoing investment in growth and expansion of the teams means an HQ move is likely in 2008.

the share price down around 20% over the last 10 days,i put it down to selling before the end of the tax year.any other views?

Carol Midgley
E-tail, if were honest, is one of those unfortunate words that inspires in most of us a big, involuntary yawn. Equally spirit-sinking is the phrase fashion e-tail, evoking as it does images of draughty warehouses in Walsall posting out cheap frocks to the under-21s.

And then there is asos.com. This, in the unlikely event that you didnt know, is the online fashion store that was founded on making a virtue out of reproducing the outfits of heat magazine celebrities such as Sienna Miller and Paris Hilton, and knocking them out at a fraction of the price. Nothing that has happened to asos.com in the seven years that it has existed can truthfully be described as dull. The business has become something of an online fashion phenomenon, second in size only to the mighty Next.co.uk, and is changing all preconceptions about dreary old e-tail.

What started as a smallish operation selling pink faux-fur gilets in the style of Jennifer Ellison (ASOS stands for as seen on screen) is now a multimillion-pound business that has doubled its turnover virtually every year since 2000. The gross retail sales for last year were 115 million and, at Christmas, when many high-street retailers were weeping into their groaning sales rails, asos.com recorded an 86 per cent increase in sales in the seven weeks to January 20, not just bucking the trend but blowing a raspberry in its face. In another coup, it recently poached Caren Downie, Topshops buying director, who joins ASOS as buying director of womenswear. Fast fashion is only getting faster, and an internet model is a perfect environment in which to showcase this, she says.

Given this rosy picture, its not surprising to find that the companys new headquarters is in a great, swanky building, Greater London House, in north London, where it occupies an entire floor and seems to be teeming with staff (ASOS employs 270 people). One of the first faces I see when I go in is that of Melanie Blatt, the All Saints singer, who is browsing through samples from its new spring collection. Thats a turn-up, eh? A company that began by tapping into the national fixation with celebrity now appears to be attracting the celebrities themselves.

If you have ever used the website, which I have many times, then you will know that its two main plus points are the speed with which it keeps up with fashion, and the sheer amount of choice available. At any one time there are more than 400 styles of dresses alone on the website, not to mention mountains of tops, trousers, shoes, bags, lingerie, swimwear and jewellery (there are 4,500 products in all), and an entire mens section, all of which is modelled by people walking on a real catwalk.

You can search via your chosen celebritys style Kate Moss and Victoria Beckham are the most clicked celebs, by the way or just via day or eveningwear. More recently, in a development that signals its growing confidence, ASOS has diversified from merely copying the rich and famous and now offers its own luxury brand, together with well-established labels such as Antik Batik, Pinko, Rock & Republic, Public Beware, Christian Dior, Ted Baker, Just Cavalli, American Retro and Miss Sixty. ASOS also sells a few Balenciaga bags per month (though, speaking personally, if I was lashing out 800 on a posh bag, I think Id want the sales-assistants-sucking-up-to-me experience that goes with it).

According to Robert Bready, the retail director, about 46,000 orders are sent out every week. Normally, 200 new items are added to the website every week. In the run-up to Christmas, that figure is nearer 400 a week. The goods are posted out from a huge warehouse in Hemel Hempstead, to customers who find they prefer clothes shopping from their armchair to traipsing the rain-sodden high streets of Britain. It is only two years ago that the main warehouse was hit by a huge fire that destroyed 5.5 million of ASOS stock. Despite this ruining Christmas trading in 2005, and putting the company out of action for weeks, it had bounced back within six months.

Ill be frank and say that when I used ASOS in the very early days, the results were hit and miss. Sometimes the clothes that arrived were great; sometimes they were made of such crackly material that you were afraid to stand too close to the fire. Neither did all of them look very much like the original inspiration. But the quality has improved noticeably in recent years. Bready says much work has been done to this effect: garment technicians have been hired and specialists brought in from Karen Millen to oversee quality control. The market has responded enthusiastically; the website receives two million hits a month. The average per order is 50.

The biggest advantage for us is that we dont have bricks and mortar premises, says Bready. While other buyers [on the high street] have to go to the Far East to get better margins and it can take weeks just to ship the stuff and get it ready to display in a shop, we dont have to operate to the same margins. We are able to use factories in Europe, so our production times are much faster. This can mean that from spotting, say, Lily Allen wearing a new style of dress on the street one day, ASOS buyers and designers are in a position to have similar ones made and ready to sell in four weeks.

But surely the other big advantage to this is an ethical one? As increasing numbers of consumers become guilt-stricken about sweatshop practices in countries such as Bangladesh, then this is something ASOS could be shouting about. Bready says that 60 to 70 per cent of its stock is made in Europe, which is something that I would be putting on posters. But ASOS has as yet done relatively little advertising because, as Bready says, they wanted to get the product right first.

The idea for the company came from its chief executive, Nick Robertson the grandson of Austin Reed and his business partner at the time, Quentin Griffiths. Theyd read about a particular lamp that had appeared in Friends and inspired more than 20,000 viewers to call NBC asking where they could buy it. It was at the time when there was an explosion of new celebrity magazines, and Robertson noticed that many of them were pointing out to readers where they could buy similar outfits to those sported by stars such as Victoria Beckham thus directing people to spend their money somewhere else without even getting commission for it. Robertson decided to earn that commission and, in the early days, ASOS would offer clothes in the style of a certain star. Robertson has developed the range since then and asos.com now offers high street and luxury brands.

In one of the side rooms at the HQ, Mariel, a striking blonde model, is striding up and down the catwalk in a silver minidress and Terry de Havilland shoes while a photographer shoots away. The catwalk has become a permanent fixture; when it was introduced a couple of years ago, sales promptly soared. The moving image, says Bready, brought the clothes to life. Scores of such pictures a day are uploaded to keep the website fresh and intriguing. Sameera Hassan, the companys publicist, says many customers log on twice a day. Our typical girl lives and breathes fashion, she says. The most-clicked section is called Just Arrived; what is in Just Arrived at the beginning of the day is different to that at the end of the day.

Of course, what really matters is hard sales. In a high-street shop, 20 per cent of customers on average buy something. When it comes to online retail, the figure drops significantly: around 2.5 out of every 100 browsers will buy. Then there are returns: an average catalogue company experiences about 40 per cent returns. But asos.com seems to be bucking the trend on both these counts. Bready says that its conversion rate ie, the number of visitors to the site who buy is 6 per cent and, at sale times, nearer 10 per cent. Meanwhile, its level of returns is much lower about 22 per cent.

The rise of ASOS has been so rapid that there must come a point when its success will plateau (it was named Fashion E-tailer of the Year at both the 2005 and 2006 Drapers Awards). The company is confident, however, that growth will continue in 2008, a prediction that already seems correct despite a possible recession. Robertson goes so far as to say, If there is a spending squeeze, for a business growing at this rate we can afford to lose 10 per cent of sales. Im full of confidence about the year ahead.

This is partly because online shopping is continuing to grow in popularity, and partly because ASOS is introducing new categories (maternitywear, petites) which it believes will drive further expansion. One tool that will help this is the asos.com magazine, a glossy handbag-sized affair that features a different style heroine each month (Mischa Barton, Victoria Beckham, Rachel Bilson and Lindsay Lohan are among recent cover queens) and goes out free to 400,000 customers. There is a regular Style Stalker page that tracks a particular celebrity down to their last accessory. Joining it soon is a mens version, which will come out twice a year.

Aside from increased household access to broadband, the celebrity gimmick has been pivotal for ASOS, and not only because it has gone hand-in-hand with the rise of celebrity-driven reality TV and magazines. Celebrities come in and out of vogue; they evolve and change, but there have always been and always will be fashion icons, says Bready. If people see a celebrity wearing something, it gives them the confidence to wear it, too. What a pity that we cant buy the skinny hips to match.

Woodie
thats a great article from the Times

looking at the chart we will soon get a rise again.This company deserves it.





Powered by IST's

saturn5 did not take long for the rise looking good for the next leg up.

Unhappy Tesco shoppers exit double clickAnne Ashworth
A spot of online shopping is the contemporary equivalent of the tea-break, a snatched period of respite in the working day.

Because time is short, the website you choose for your minutes of me-time must offer not only a visual treat, but also a regularly updated range. If you want to buy rather than browse, it must be made extra simple to pay. Tesco's online clothing operation did not deliver any of these essential elements of the al desko retail experience. The website lacked that mix of keen pricing and attractive store layout which, in other areas, cajoles us into committing 1 out of almost 7 we spend to Tesco.

When the clothes online shopping service was launched last year, it looked like you could buy Florence & Fred, Tesco's fast fashion brand, without having to drive to an out-of-town superstore. But the F&F images looked dowdy and the few attractive items available were often sold out.

This was reminiscent of the Balenciaga coat episode. In autumn 2005, Tesco garnered publicity with its promise that it would feature a 55 copy of the designer's 1,380 military coat. However, it was never seen in any Tesco outlet and the store's various excuses for this rip-off debacle were unconvincing.


More effective copycat tactics are needed if Tesco is to improve its clothing website. The A-Z of how to operate a successful online fashion site starts at Asos.com; easy-to-use and on trend - novelty and technology in partnership

Well done, Woodie, for bringing out relevant articles (no, not panty articles!) over the last month or so. It helps to give a more rounded view (no, not that sort!) than just concentrating on the figures (no, again!).

I think the price fall was just with the market; a strong day like today results in price recovery. Suspect a strong market until the trading statement and prelims - given rising confidence in trading record continuing in the coming year.

Eric

eric thanks i think the fall is also down to the end of tax year this stock has been one of the best % gainers over the last 5 years cgt goes from 10% to 18% might be wrong.

Makes sense, Woodie. On that basis some selling pressure could remain this week. But momentum is strong and the fundamentals are superb. The case is well made that we could see another 4 years of this level of growth or near it and that is without overseas. Really one to tuck away.

agree eric still more upside to come.

Good to see that when ASC retraces it bounces back from a lvl higher than previous low. (Just wished all my shares in my portfolio were triple baggers......)

Could even be a triple bagger from here on! Now that would be something!

PLC
03 April 2008


ASOS PLC
FOR RELEASE
7.00 AM
3 APRIL 2008


ASOS plc
('ASOS' or 'Group')
('a leading internet based fashion retailer')


PRE-CLOSE TRADING UPDATE

MONDAY, 28 APRIL 2008

ASOS, a leading internet based fashion retailer, will be releasing its pre-close
trading update for the year ended 31 March 2008 on Monday, 28 April 2008.

For further information contact:

ASOS plc Tel: 020 7756 1000
Nick Robertson, Chief Executive
Jon Kamaluddin, Finance Director

www.asos.com

from todays times.

Tiddler to watch

Tescos withdrawal from online clothing sales has boosted Asos, the online fashion group, up 12p to 267p. Kaupthing says buy with a 350p target price and believes that Tesco might be tempted to bid for Asos if it cannot get its fashion website right because failure in this instance could only be circumvented by acquisition.

just a whisker away from all time highs now

My view is that Tesco might well be tempted to bid but Robertson and allies have a near controlling stake and I don't think will be tempted, almost at whatever price. See my three-bagger comment above.

makes good reading

STOCKWATCH ASOS shares higher after Daniel Stewart upgrades to 'buy' from 'hold'
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Shares in ASOS were higher in early trade after
Daniel Stewart upgraded its recommendation on the shares to 'buy' from 'hold',
and raised the price target to 350 pence from 280 pence, with the broker taking
an upbeat view of growth prospects in internet sales.
At 9.24 am, shares in ASOS were up 6 pence at 273 pence.
In a note to clients Thursday, Daniel Stewart said it met with ASOS
management yesterday.
The broker said it was not changing its forecasts ahead of the trading
update due on April 28, announced Thursday.
It noted, however, that there is likely to be potential for upgrades at that
point. It said this is due to a number of positive developments.

The broker pointed to a Mintel report published this week highlighting the
popularity of internet shopping in the UK compared with other European
countries. Mintel forecast that online retail sales in the UK would triple by
2012; if ASOS were to follow this growth trend, revenues would reach around 230
million pounds by 2013, said Daniel Stewart, which is almost 50 percent more
than the broker is currently forecasting.

The broker also noted Hitwise data for March 2008 showing that ASOS.com has
moved up to rank 23 in terms of market share for online retail sites, well ahead
of closest competitor - in terms of target demographic - Topshop.co.uk. ASOS is
also closing in on Next.co.uk, down to 13th in March, from 10th in December.
Daniel Stewart said it continues to see ASOS as an attractive acquisition
target for a retail major looking to add an online clothing retail presence, or
strengthen an existing one.

Again, though, the acquisition potential. Leave them alone, I say, to move gracefully into the FTSE 350.

Jon Kamaluddin, ASOS FDProfile: Jon Kamaluddin, FD of online retailer ASOS

When it comes to finance, Jon Kamaluddin, FD of booming online retailer ASOS, is bang on trend


Written by Michelle Perry

Accountancy Age, 03 Apr 2008
If the holy grail of finance directors is continuous double-digit growth, a hefty cash pile and zero debt then that explains the relaxed demeanour of Jon Kamaluddin, finance director of internet clothing store ASOS.

On a tour of ASOSs offices on the second floor of a former tobacco factory in north London, Kamaluddin strolls along with the contented, proud manner of a father showing off his fast growing brood.

This was the size of our original warehouse, he says poking his head around a room roughly 3,000 sq ft stacked high with the latest fashions in shoe, clothes and the all-important accessories, bags, scarves and belts. Seven years on and the company is currently moving into a warehouse measuring 158,000 sq ft.

Floated on AIM in 2001 by co-founder Nick Robertson, ASOS has annually exceeded all investor and analyst expectations and in 2003 became the UKs second most popular online fashion store behind Next but ahead of TopShop a position it still holds today. The gap between us and Next has been narrowing, while between us and Topshop its been widening in recent months, says Kamaluddin.

Originally known as As Seen on Screen, the business is now more commonly known by its acronym ASOS, shorter, sharper and neater reflecting perhaps a change in its clothing lines. Where once it marketed itself hard with cheaper, copycat outfits of originals worn by the likes of celebrities Paris Hilton, Sienna Miller and Mischa Barton, it has now expanded to offer own brand products and luxury branded items.

In its most recent accounts, ASOS reported revenues up 116% to 42.6m with a pre-tax profit of 3.4m, up 144%, and 1.3 million registered users. It now has as many as six analysts watching their stocks a clear sign of its success and all its brokers recently upgraded their forecasts for the year ahead.

Organic is better

So far growth has been 100% organic. Kamaluddin doesnt rule out acquisitions as a possibility in the long-term but in the immediate future he sees little need to acquire, given that the UK clothing market is worth 45bn, and we dont need much of that to continue growth. Thats not even factoring in expansion on the international scene.

This success has, of course, a lot to do with timing and the penetration of broadband internet and admittedly its much easier to grow a new company than it is to maintain high growth once youre established. Nevertheless you cant deny the ingenuity of the business and the vision of its directors.

We are in the right place at the right time. The internet is growing very rapidly and online retail is growing at 30-40% and has done for the last three to four years. But we have delivered on average 80% growth a year, he says.

Customers want convenience and choice and the ASOS brand is clearly delivering to achieve such fast growth and high visitor levels. The site attracts two million shoppers a month, launches 200 new items every week and offers more than 5,000 products at any one time across womenswear, menswear, footwear, accessories, jewellery and beauty.

In addition its target audience of 16 to 34- year-olds have grown up with the internet and arent so hung up on trying things on in stuffy changing rooms. Moreover the returns policy is clear, effective and efficient. What more could a girl want?

Kamaluddin says hes a risk taker in comparison to the traditional accountant, but ironically within the business he presents the more cautious face of its directors.

They have taken some bold moves at times, investing ahead of the curve by recruiting top people before they actually need them, allowing them to move fast when the risk pays off. Financially Kamaluddin ensures he maintains a balance by ensuring fiscal stability in a fast growing business: The business has no debt. Its cash generative. We have a cash balance and for our growth cycle thats the right approach.

Caution, and the ability to look ahead, doesnt only extend to finance either. The directors have chosen their non-executives well, including the respected Peter
Williams, former Selfridges FD and current CEO of Alpha Airports Group. Williams is chairman of both ASOSs audit and remuneration committees.

For a young FD, Kamaluddin, 34, has exceptionally broad experience in accountancy and business and it is this he puts down to his clinching the job.

He began his career at now defunct accountancy firm Arthur Andersen further proof that the demise of the firm had little adverse impact on many its staff spending the first five years in corporate recovery dealing with distressed businesses, which were either in insolvency or on the brink.

I spent a lot of time doing investigations on behalf of companies and bankers, looking into the prospects of a business, at what cash flow was like and recommending remedial action. It was a fantastic way to start a career.

Kamaluddin then went to Marks & Spencer where he spent three years working on the George Davis brand Per Una a business created from scratch, which hit 200m in turnover: Again that was an intense experience for a short period of time and gave me exposure to something entrepreneurial and fast moving, he says.

Red hot fashion

Not one to hang around, he then moved to a small start-up, which he helped float on AIM in 2004, paving the way for the perfect step up to FD of a fast moving public company. Cue the ASOS position. It was his blue-chip and Andersen experience that first impressed CEO Nick Robertson, he believes.

But the companys trajectory hasnt always followed a smooth path. ASOSs warehouse, among other businesses in Hemel Hempstead, was seriously affected by the Buncefield blaze, which took fire fighters two days to put out. Yet the fire failed to torch the businesss growth. The cash reserve the business enjoys has not only allowed it to come out fighting after disasters such as Buncefield, but has also given it much more room for manoeuvre, which will come in handy in the coming years as the economy wavers.

If, as is expected, the business continues to grow, its three biggest investors: Bill Currie, a private investor; ASOSs CEO Nick Robertson; and Fidelity, holding together almost 40% of shares, will be rubbing their hands in glee.

On almost every measure the business is far bigger than three years ago in terms of staff numbers, warehouse and office space, sales, cash balances, profit and, of course, the finance team, which since Kamaluddin became FD has grown from one person to 12, and hes still looking to recruit.

While accountants across industries are shifting uncomfortably with the economy threatening to nose dive, in the world of online clothing Kamaluddin is, for now at least, sitting pretty.

Dressed for success

The UK clothing industry is an incredibly aggressive marketplace dominated by only a handful of brands. It is worth 45bn and is growing annually at an average rate of between 30% and 40%.

Despite being a relatively small outfit, in terms of turnover, compared to the likes of Topshop and Next, ASOS's business model is well placed given that according to Internative Media in Retail Group, total online spend in the UK is expected to grow by 30% in 2008. Women's, girls' and children's clothing account for the major share of the market, making up 68.7% of the total value, which offers an additional advantage to ASOS, as its biggest sellers are womenswear.

According to a research report from Infomat, as fashion clothing retailers continue to find trading conditions difficult in the face of weak consumer demand and heavy discounting. Marks & Spencer, Arcadia Group, BHS Ltd, and Moss Bros Group are among those struggling to maintain their position. Those thriving however include discount chains such as Matalan, Peacock's and Primark Stores, which are expanding rapidly and are predicted to increase their market share.

Nevertheless, we are entering a much tougher economic period and the latest update from the British Retail Consortium shows that UK retailers saw consumers cut their spending 'in earnest' in February. Clothes sales were lower than a year earlier for the fifth month in a row, 'despite continued discounting and promotions'.

Stephen Robertson, director general of the BRC, said the figures illustrated that both retailers and consumers were being squeezed by sharp rises in utility bills and fuel costs.

In its favour ASOS has the ability to rely on its cash reserves, its agility to adapt to changing market conditions because of its size and fewer overheads because it's primarily an online business. FD Kamaluddin isn't ignoring the signs however and is monitoring economic events closely.

For more information on the retail industry go to imgr.org and infomat.com

with all these buy recommendations one wonders how hi this one will go. Anyway we are in "new" territory now as it has just gone thru its highest lvl ever