This ones a heck of a specualive investment but it seems that the institutions are willing to stomp up the cash to back it in the long term.

Heres the latest news from Killik stocbrokers on the company..........

MEDICAL MARKETING Joint Venture

We recently highlighted Medical Marketing (MMG) as worthy of attention. The company, in which I have a personal share holding, has this morning announced the formation of a joint venture, Genvax, to develop a novel DNA vaccine platform technology.

Human trials have been underway since 2001 in areas such as Lymphoma and Myeloma but the technology has broad applications in cancer, viral and bacterial infections (hence the term platform). The technology works on boosting the immune system by teaching it to identify hard to recognise cancer proteins as foreign and destroy them. Early results from the 25 patient trial in lymphoma are encouraging and evaluation of the result is expected by March 2005. Successful results should mean big pharmaceutical groups will start to take financial and commercial interests around that time.

This looks to be the first of a series of announcements due from Medical Marketing as it has a range of predominantly cancer trials moving into the clinical stage. (news flow could push the price higher)

The stock has made good progress in recent sessions up to the mid-80p level where the company is valued at just under 40 million. ENDS.

Please DYOR

cheers GF.

Looking at the effect on SP of the Atherogenics AZN deal announcement, the SP increased 25% from 16$ to 21$.
The SP 2 months later is back down to 16$ (in a bull market!, lesson to be learnt?).
This was for a phase III drug not one about to start phase IIb.
My point is that I think the comment "one deal away" is misleading. The drugs are no more likely to be successful with big pharma on board.

I see drug results being the key driver here and not deals (although it will help).

Having said that Atherogenics is valued at 600M$ and increased 150M$ on the announcement. They have a poor pipeline with only 1 other product in phase 1 but do have 200M$ cash.
Shame MMG are not listed on NASDAQ.

From the other place, worth a read.


BennytheBall - 15 Feb'06 - 16:56 - 6901 of 6902


M25, Good question - I've always felt that the nearer the products get to market, the greater the risk, paradoxically... When it's all blue sky stuff, the sp is really sentiment driven. If it hadn't been for last year's bear raid, we would have seen asonishing gains just on the strength of sentiment. Many of us have already gained massively on speculation that if products get into clinical trials, the forward discount (ie DCF) model says that x billion minus 92% likelihood of failure makes it worth y million now... but it's all a gamble really. Whereas once we get procducts into phase III clinical trials and commercial deals are in the price, there is something tangible (even more tangible than fatboy C) that could drive the price down - unimpressive trial results.

A couple of years ago I wondered whether it made sense to sell when we got to phase III, once the maximum amount had been priced in for likely success, before we got to actually knowing whether the trials had succeeded. After last year's shinanigans, I almost wish I'd kept more closely to that plan and sold at 2.50...

But your question, what effect on the SP if a deal announced, I still say 5.50 short term, 20 end of the year.

Do you recall mitzis' 2004 target was 1.20, which seemed way off-beam at 31/12/4 when the price was 55p, but within weeks we'd gone through it...

I'm hoping that my 5.50 target from last Autumn will meet the same fate with the coming news

What's your view of the liely effect on sp when the first deal(s) is(/are) announced?

b

el magnifico - 16 Feb'06 - 10:20 - 6902 of 6902


Benny,

The problem with making a forecast is that there are several potential catalysts and possible combinations of announcements. This is a good thing !

Off the top of my head, here's a quick list : a ruthenium PH II trial start announcement; Genvax's March 2006 update on extended trial (recall DB's comments at last AGM "the longer a trial runs, the better it is...if results are poor, the trial terminates"); Genvax developments into non-bespoke cancer vaccines; any Viratis progess in AIDS, hepatitis, RA or asthma; any squeak about a bird 'flu vaccine; any commercial agreement with large pharma in any of the above therapeutic areas.

If you could tell me which of these will be announced in the next few months, I could make a stab at constructing a model to propose a price target.

But here's a "starter for ten (pounds!)". Assuming that we hear post-16 March from MMG about Genvax's progress (as we did in 2005 from the same event), then I guess that a suceesful extended trial will be the news to expect and, at that point, I think that the 2.50 level is attainable (and, this time, sustainable)for starters. For 10+, at least one major marketing deal with big Pharma will be required, IMHO.

The point is, to paraphrase Benny, that the response to any one of the above items is "up big-time". If you believe the MMG story, you should be putting the finishing touches to a long-term position now.

Taking a shorter term view, the current price weakness may be the last chance to buy MMG at depressed levels before the smart money slides in ahead of March !

el

Yup before March.

cheers GF.

Moving ahead strongly this morning, the big deal cant be that far away now. Shorters should be hovering over the buy back button.

cheers GF.

Lets hope for more of the same tomorrow!
I do take heart and agree with this part of Mickeys post,(Genvax's March 2006 update on extended trial (recall DB's comments at last AGM "the longer a trial runs, the better it is..) So good news should be just around the corner.

Its time for those who kept the faith to be rewarded !
p.s
Thanks for email GF as always much appreciated.

No probs, DB.

cheers GF.

This seems to be hotting up again.
Like you say GF, shorters must be worried now!

A move in the right direction at last.

MS

From the other site. It looks as if a few people are starting to get a bit excited.

A0469514 - 24 Feb'06 - 10:04 - 6926 of 6932


News around the corner, Benny? Well I have the 16th and 17th of March pencilled on my calendar which are the dates when Dr Freda Stevenson is due to make a presentation to the DNA Vaccine forum on progress with her Genvax research and trials.

If people remember this time last year, we started to get intense speculation about how effective the lymphoma trials had been. Mike Walters suggested, on his internet site, that Dr Stevenson could possibly have, at last, found a cure for cancer. The research was that promising. He announced in his article that he was so impressed that he was buying the shares next day. I have a lot of respect for Walters. Most commentators would have loaded up their portfolio before releasing his article but he feels that he has to be on the same footing as his subscribers. Well, that is what he claims.

Anyway, the shares, which had been gaining strength on rumours of the Genvax results, took off after the Walters article only to be brought crashing back again when his arch enemy Simon Cawkwell started a shorting campaign. Unfortunately, Cawkwell does not have quite the same scruples as Walters and every trick in the shorters book was used by him and his followers to force the shares lower.

So where do we stand on the Genvax research and the 'cure' for cancer?

Well, we do not know for certain and that, I guess, is why the shares got so volatile. The news release on this is controlled very tightly, it seems, by the Cancer Research UK charity who have provided most of the funding for the research. After last year's DNA vaccine forum , we waited patiently for days after before a RNS was released and, in the end, it did not say very much. Medical Marketing hold the marketing rights to any Genvax therapies and it would perhaps be in their interest to shout from the rooftops about how good it is. At this stage, it is definitely not in Cancer Research's interest, and they control the newsflow. If word gets out that they may have a cure for cancer they would be swamped by the media and then by the public, pleading to get on the programme. It is just impossible for them to accommodate the demand until the products have been through the regulatory process. They just have to keep the news releases to a minimum until the time suits them.

So newsflow may well still be restrained, for now, but it has to start coming out soon. Freda has an obligation to keep her peer group informed and MMG has an obligation to keep the market informed of price sensitive information. Cancer Research UK has to let the news out eventually and, as I remember, we were promised full results of Genvax lymphoma trials in January and they have yet to appear, as far as I am aware. When Cancer Research UK feels the time is right then they will go to the media and it could be sensational. A press release from them is sure to have far more impact than a release from a small Cambridge company.

Mike Walters knows David Best, the MMG boss, very well and he is obviously very excited by what Mr Best has told him. No, we need to be careful here. Mr Walters is very excited by the research he has carried out on the company.

It is largely a matter of reading between the lines and deciding for yourself who you can trust and who you cannot. From my research on this company, I can tell you that I am extremely optimistic on many fronts and when the news finally breaks, there are a few of the 'old crew', as Benny calls them, who are suddenly going to feel very much wealthier.

Xylos

I read that on the other side as well Mickey .Things do seem to be looking up,although we must not get caught out like what happened last year.

Yup lets stay cool.

cheers GF.

These are steaming ahead today lets hope for more of the same next week, or am I tempting fate.

MS

Their website is currently offline so maybe it is being updated to accommodate some news?

Another tick up so far today on some decent early buying volume.

Super start to the week. Hoping it continues.

cheers GF.

Lets hope so GF 3 will do me for starters.

LOL

MS

3 pound and a lot more I hope MS in 18 months time. I could take some profits on the tranches that I buy in but i think I would miss out on the real action here.

I hear Evils being stubborn and is still in, mind looks like his followers are all getting out.

cheers GF.

It doesn`t surprise me to hear he is still short.HE is stubborn but he can afford to be ,he has got deeper pockets than most of his followers !

Well at least it finished up again not by much i know but buys easily out numbered sells,with a decent T trade going through after the bell.

An excellent RNS. A couple of real heavy weights on board who wouldn't have joined had they not believed in MMG. Anyone short on this is going to end up with a sore bum.

LOL

MS