With the US subprime crisis spreading to Europe, shockwaves in Northern Rock which would spread to other banks, UK economy growth not looking healthy, increasing trade deficits, sharply rising mortgage costs, falling corporate profits and job cuts especially in the City, and as market turmoils escalates, housing price which shows a first drop of 2.6% (from Rightmove last month), this are the signs of the beginning of a housing crash. PROPERTY SHARES ARE A SELL!

Following on from yesterday, today sees one small lender increasing its available LTV's from 75% to 90%, and Leeds increasing their BTL LTV's to 80%.
This is a good sign of returning confidence within the lending institutions, but there is a long way to go yet.

I would't get too carried away, just wait for christmas, and then a long hard winter.
I believe were only at the very start of a downturn, that could potentailly be rather nasty!
imo

The jury is out, Neil, but I think it has bottomed in the financial markets. It may bump along for a while and it will be some time before the real economy feels the full effect, but I think the balance of "news" from banks etc. will now be neutral and will turn more positive through late 2008.
Just like you, imo.
Alan

And within the last 30 minutes a very odd announcement.
Cannot disclose the lender, but they have announced they are only making their high LTV product available as a fixed, not at their SVR.
The public reason for this, when announced, will be to mitigate the borrowers risk from potentially increased payments. No lender is that altruistic. I beleive the real reason is more likely to be profitablity. I think they are expecting their LTV to drop in the coming months and anyone on a fixed rate will be paying much more than otherwise and face large penalties to get out of the fix.
A kind of fleece 'em while you can scenario. Normally they would pull their fixes and replace them with lower fixes, but with them being one of the few available over 90%, they do not need to work hard to attract borrowers.

Alan - what sort of term is it fixed for? Seems to me that major cause of banks' troubles is lending long and borrowing short, so from their perspective the deal makes sense if they have sourced the funds. If only for a few years, however, surely the borrower is back to the mercy of rates when the deal expires?

Just 3 years, Partridge.
I still read it as profiteering from a restricted supply by ensuring as supply eases and rates come down they are enjoying large margins.

I really can't believe there are actually any housing bulls on here. Nuts!

Are there any?

Not me.
I have no idea what might happen to the housing market. I just comment on the financing of it. The market itself is 12 months behind the lenders.

and not me but, I won't deny that I am choosing some of the more quality stocks for future investment when the time is more appropriate.

Mortgage lenders putting up rates despite BOE keeping rate fixed.


Bradford & Bingley is raising rates on its standard residential, buy-to-let and self-certification mortgages by between 0.05% and 0.55%. It claimed the move was part of its "normal business activity", which has seen it repricing its mortgages on a monthly basis for the past 18 months.

It added that it had nothing to do with Monday's announcement that it had racked up an 8 million pre-tax loss in the four months to the end of April after suffering a further 89 million hit from the credit squeeze and a 36 million charge from increasing arrears.

As a result of the changes, a two-year fixed rate loan for someone with a 75% deposit who pays a 999 fee will rise by 0.2% to 6.49%.

But the biggest rises were seen across the group's buy-to-let range, with fixed rate deals jumping by 0.55% and variable ones increasing by 0.45%, leaving a three-year fix with a 1.5% fee at 7.44%.

Abbey is raising its rates by between 0.07% and 0.26% on a range of its products, including those for people with only a 15% deposit and its five-year fixed rate loans. The move will leave a five-year fixed rate deal for someone with a 25% deposit 0.26% higher at 6.45%.

It is the second time that the UK's third largest lender has increased its mortgage rates in two weeks and it warned that there were likely to be further changes to come.

What the above journalist failed to mention was that Abbey had made its rates much cheaper through the introduced channels and higher through the direct channels in response to the AMI & FSA concerns about dual pricing. In effect they have levelled the playing field and their fixed rates are as low as 5.69%!!
Disengenuous reporting if ever I read it.
Also, anyone who believes the B&B have not raised their rates due to Mondays announcement is in cloud cuckoo land. They have nothing to lend out really and so the best way to deal with that is to be unattractive.
Finally, further changes to come could mean anything!!!!! Hardly a warning except in the septic minds of journalists who love to put the fear of God in everyone.
The trouble is, the lie becomes the truth and the prophecy self fulfills.
I could rewrite that story with identical facts and you would believe that free beer was here!! Neither are true but a bit of honesty would not go amiss.

Further evidence that Britain's housing slump is gathering pace has been provided by figures from Halifax, which show that house prices are plunging at twice the rate of the property market's drastic downturn in the early Nineties.

House prices fell by a further 2.4 per cent last month, extending losses that have left them down by 6.6 per cent since January, wiping £13,000 off the value of the average home.

Prices have fallen twice as fast in the past five months as in the same period in 1992, during the most recent property crash, when they fell by only 3.3 per cent, based on Halifax figures. The decline in prices this year is the biggest five-month fall since records began in 1991. If the deterioration in house prices continues at its present pace, the value of a home will slump by more in six months this year than in the whole of 1992, when prices fell by a total of 7.2 per cent. Some economists forecast that prices could fall by up to 12 per cent this year, followed by further declines next year.

After the Bank of England took a hardline decision to keep rates on hold yesterday there were fears that it could raise interest rates later this year after the European Central Bank issued a surprise warning that surging inflation may force it to lift eurozone rates as early as next month. The emerging threat of higher base rates in the UK will add to the growing pressure on families struggling with the rising cost of living.

Bradford & Bingley is expected to aggravate the pain today, when the troubled lender increases rates on all of its home-loan products, although it has not said by how much.

All the property stocks are crashing today because the banks are asking them to revalue their properties which has slumped in value.

Thousands facing negative equity
By Richard Scott
Personal finance correspondent, BBC News


More than 23,200 people who took out 100% mortgages in the year to 31 March could face negative equity, according to figures obtained by the BBC.

Falling house prices mean the amount borrowed could be greater than the value of their properties.

The data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders comes as figures show the housing market is slowing down further.

Separate housing figures suggest the number of transactions per estate agent has hit a 30-year low.

These figures from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors come as banks are imposing stricter requirements on borrowers, in the wake of the credit crisis.

Yes Al - but lots of those in negative equity early 90s now have substantial asset in their homes. Key is serviceability - if that no problem, then blips in short term valuation of no great significance. Time getting near imo to remember that shares can go up as well as down - my only holding at present in housebuilding sector is ABBY (no debt) but may soon be tempted to catch the falling knife. Same imo applies to some of the banks but always DYOR.

Persimmon (LSE: PSN.L - news) , down nearly 9% to 387p, is the FTSE 100's worst performer today after Goldman Sachs lowered its stance on the index's sole housebuilder to 'sell' from 'neutral'.

The broker said the Persimmon will be unable to escape the effects of a housing downturn and land writedowns despite its disciplined management and high quality land holdings.

Persimmon was also hit by a Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) survey that showed chartered surveyors completed just 17.4 transactions each over the last three months versus 18.5 in the period to April.

Guscavalier

was interested to read your earlier thread, because I had also looked at Housebuilders with a contrarian view, and like you had discounted BDEV and TW. due to weak balance sheets. The two I'm following are PSN and BWY which seem sronger and should emerge on the other side. I was looking at a 12 month view before buying, but this was just guess work, so I have decided to use charts to decide on my timing.

The plan is to use the 50 and 200 ma, when looking back at PSN i noticed that the 50ma crossed the 200ma = dead cross in August 2007 a very good sell signal. When the 50ma moves above 200ma in the future this could indicate a buy signal = golden cross. I had a look back at some graphs in 2002/03 and it seemed to work then, I would miss the first rise in price this way but it should still be near the bottom.

I would also wait for some companies to fail or to be taken over first before I would expect any buy signals. But like you I still have some homework to do on the timing of the buy signals, and also which company would be the best one to follow.