Thread designed to record set-ups and targets on index and FX pairs.
'A market is only your enemy until you understand it, then it becomes your best friend.'








Any questions, please feel free to ask.

From time to time i may openly state an opinion regarding direction of a set-up and wish to add that in no way am i recommending a trade. I am sometimes only in trades for a matter of minutes and can't always update as to entry/exits taken.
As always, markets are dangerous places to be and must be respected as such. Always use stop losses and never over-leverage; 3% of your pot as a maximum per trade. As always, YOU are responsible for your own trades! Happy pip hunting!

Click HERE to visit me at FXtechnicals.net

I won't update the FTSE any more. It simply hardly ever trends well with EW and hence i don't trade it. Any attempt to label it must be over confidence on my part! It may be worth keeping an eye open for a set of channels though. Could be some already;



Incredible how your thoughts chop and change along with PA. My outlook at the turn of the year was bullish everything (to get long on Yen pairs/Euro pairs) and bullish about the markets even if i don't trade them, (from post 186, 7th Jan; 'Right now i am biased long on the Euro, the Yen pairs, the Audi, Kiwi, markets.... yep just about everything...'

Somehow holding for anything longer than a few hours simply doesn't suit my style and so getting positioned for such moves as yesterday (Euro pairs) will require a change of tact. Fast moves come with little warning, usually after days of boring grind.
To be fair, this is a marathon, not a sprint and i know i need to concentrate on the system i highlighted yesterday. I've traded three set-ups so far this week and each one was a winner. I have also taken four other trades of various phases/styles and lost on each of those... the answer is right there staring at me!

One quick chart possibility for the Euro, but i think its time to tone it down with regards to predictions. As the analyst posted in that link i provided yesterday, sometimes by posting such analysis, you make a rod for your own back so to speak. Its time to find those 4th wave set-ups and ignore everything else. Becoming a successful trader requires much more than to know what you are doing! It means very little if your execution is poor, or discipline is lacking....



Good luck whatever your trading, but don't fight the trend!

One more;

Just a little extra work on above;

Awesome charts last couple of days, (i missed entry yet again!);

Valid trigger on a flag trade to end the week with, time for a beer;

The easiest wave to recognise is the 3rd. If it doesn't extend (not more than 161.8% of wave 1), look for a great low risk wave 4 trade. Use channel lines off of 0&2 replicated off of 1 to indicate likely support for 4. Then try to tie in the 38.2% retracement. Stop is a couple pips inside wave 1 territory (be mindful you're not in a 'C' wave in case of a diagonal cross over). With wave 5 to come we can also project likely targets. I also combine a flag trading system which if triggered adds to the picture to make it a very high probability trade. remember, its not about pips, its all about percentages. 3% each trade regardless if its 200 pip target or 20pips. Why wait for days for a set-up, they happen several times a day on small timescales...

Its possible to use channel lines for a further target, if you can follow the wave structure. Connect 2&4, then replicate parallel off of 1 for likely end of 5);




*Edit* Its a little later on and it kept dropping. It might still be an extended 5th, with a throwover (you can also replicate the lower TL off of the peak of wave 3), but looking far more likely to label it a WXY move. The point is that after the breach of the last HL (on prev chart) it confirms trend down. I missed entry to this trade on this occasion (whilst on me turbo trainer), so am cursing! Right then... look for next one.

Euro is looking corrective. Couple of counts that look valid right now;



or poss;



Or, we could be in a further 'X' wave of a larger WXYXZ move, though i find those rare. I prefer the first chart. Look at how in the second set ('Y' wave) the 'B' subwave reacts to the fib levels.
I will wait for (hopefully) a valid flag trigger on the way up...

A possible monthly view for Cable;



and more, speculative, but recently a potential end of the wedge;

Euro little bit of up first;



Followed by a lot of down;

Hi Davia, whats you take on the EUR/GBP pair? More strength or upper channel hit and should now weaken. I'm thinking now might make an entry point for a shot play..

Hi Shortie, i will get back to you on it later. You had to pick one i don't watch! I don't usually find it easy to interpret, but will run a ruler over it in a bit. Just waiting on a couple of other set ups for now...

Thank you Davai, much appreciated...

Sorry Shortie, didn't realise the timing of that... i see its just sold of in the last 45 mins...
Not sure what i can tell you to be honest. Don't like to give an opinion unless it fits something i can use. It does look like higher to come with this being a 4th of some degree, so possibly limited downside for a mo, unless 8280 breaks.. there is both a Fib level and a reflex point there...

Ok earlier;



My view hasn't changed, but i really really want to see the last HL breached to give the green light for lower to come;



It will make an awesome H&S;

The concern about the bounce off of that fib level is that it was the target for the end of a 4th wave... I seriously can't count the A&B at the start of the move as a 1&2, but could it really be? If so, we have just finished the ABC 4th and are good to go higher for our 5th... hmmmm, this is why i need to see that last HL breached first (reflex point)... otherwise, trend is still up.

I must re-iterate... i cannot make that a wave 1, it simply has to be a 3-3-5 abc (A) as per other charts. That last HL must be breached.

Ok, little more work and this is a real possibility. A truncated 5th of the previous X wave.

Certainly would be foolish to rule out that we have just finished wave 4. I will be looking ofr a flagtrade long to trigger tomorrow if so...

If so, it will also mean possibly as much as 200 pips to come north on the Euro by middle of the day Thursday;

Still not particularly happy with the prev truncated 5th chart, so will be happy to be proved wrong. That means i expect the prior short scenario... anyway...

Trading complex corrections is certainly a difficult task. For me, the only cycle worth attempting is 'C' waves because we know they will be in 5. If something is unreadable, look for another.

Here is a possibility i have noticed this morning on the Kiwi. Fibs indicate we have just seen an A&B wave, so 5 down to come?



*Edit* looks like an irregular 'B' after the minor 5w to start.