overgrowth
- 09 Feb 2005 20:52
Dowgate Capital (DGT) are sitting
in the middle of a goldmine!
This company through
their sole trading arm City Financial Associates are looking to take full
advantage of the "booming" AIM market this year.
Dowgate provide NOMAD (NOMinated ADvisor) services to AIM companies
and also have full Corporate Broker status which means that they can fund
placements on behalf of the companies they represent.
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On first sight, the
fact that Dowgate exist in the often veiled financial services sector
makes you think twice about investing in company such as this because
it would be impossible to understand what they were doing - however, think
again!
DGT bring new companies
to the AIM (Alternative Investment Market). For each new company "floated"
on AIM, they take arrangement fees when acting as NOMAD. After the company
is launched then for a nice steady earner DGT get another healthy chunk
of cash every year for looking after them (note that all AIM companies
must have a nominated adviser - thereby securing a ready source of recurring
income).
Because DGT also act
as a Corporate broker they can get a very healthy percentage for arranging
placement of shares with insititutions before a new company floats. In
addition, because placements come outside the sphere of yearly NOMAD work,
they can also gain healthy percentages of placements which companies may
need to make throughout the year when they need a quick injection of cash
to speed growth.
Current NOMADships:
28 companies represented (gives recurring income of approx 480,000
per year)
Current on-going Brokerage
agreements: 19 companies (income depends on placements)
For flotations, depending
on the size of a company, fees charged will be anything from 50,000
to 100,000+
For placements (the real earner), DGT get anything from 3% to around 12%
of the TOTAL AMOUNT RAISED - For example a new company raising 3M
though a placement will earn DGT anything from 90,000 to 360,000
!
These figures are indicative as actual deals all differ due to circumstances
and DGT sometimes take payment in shares - they still have a tasty chunk
of Setstone shares and when this Russian exploration company comes back
to AIM, predictions are that the share price will rocket.
Note that the amount that this little company can earn in fees is huge
and every new deal that comes through we know will contribute another
healthy chunk into the bottom line. The good news with every new floatation
means that it's another chunk of recurring revenue which could go on for
years, with DGT having to do very little.
New clients gained in 2005 are:
Mediazest
(NOMAD & broker) Elite Strategies (NOMAD) Process Handling (NOMAD) Poland Investment Fund (NOMAD) Nanotech Energy (NOMAD & broker) Archimedia Ventures (NOMAD & broker) Red Leopard Holdings (NOMAD) Alba Mineral Resources (NOMAD & broker) Intandem Films (NOMAD & broker) Motive Television (NOMAD) IncaGold (NOMAD) Sportswinbet (NOMAD & Broker) Infoscreen Networks (NOMAD & Broker) Mark Kingsley (NOMAD & Broker) Croatia Ventures (NOMAD & Broker) Pantheon Leisure (NOMAD) Firenze Ventures (Ofex Advisor) FlightStore Group (NOMAD & Broker) Euro Capital Projects (NOMAD) Pearl Street Holdings (NOMAD) Worldwide Natural Resources (Ofex Advisor) Dovedale Ventures (Ofex Advisor) Other 2005 work completed:Neptune-Calculus VCT offer for subs of up to 12 million
Advisory work for TGM on London Bus disposal for 20.4M
Advisory work for Creightons on property disposal
Advisory work for Hampton Trust on company restructuring
Advisory work for Interbulk Investments on acquisition of
Inbulk Advisory work for Fundamental-e
Investments on two disposals Advisory work for Designer
Vision re: Design Rights against Centurion Electronics
Click Here for fundamentals and profit projections.
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Ted1
- 22 Mar 2005 16:24
- 203 of 2787
1mil buy @ 43 thats for the tick up, bring on the results first week in April.
Although they will be bad we need to get them out of the way, and a strong forward forecast. Has anyone seen the 2 companies that sb and js are floating on AIM and they didn't even give cfp the work. What does that tell ya, no love lost there then. End of March will see the back of the pair of them leaving tr to get on with things.
ranoszek
- 22 Mar 2005 16:30
- 204 of 2787
Ted1
agree and good ridannce to both the scumbags. Why should SB get a pay off when he destroyed the value in this company through looking after himself and his friends with his " i know no reason fo sp to rise" announcement. In an earlier post i tried to make the point that fees outstanding for two deals for last financiel year were not included in the figures , the costs were, so that should boost the figures for this year a bit more.
corehard
- 24 Mar 2005 12:57
- 206 of 2787
There's that tumbleweed floating by again !
butane
- 24 Mar 2005 18:12
- 207 of 2787
Another new client for CFP............
AIM
24 March 2005
COMPANY NAME:
Red Leopard Holdings plc
COMPANY ADDRESS:
233-237 Old Marylebone Road, London
COMPANY POSTCODE:
NW1 5QT
COUNTRY OF INCORPORATION:
England and Wales
COMPANY BUSINESS OR, IN THE CASE OF AN INVESTING COMPANY, DETAILS OF ITS INVESTMENT STRATEGY:
Following the acquisition of Harrell Hotels (Europe) Ltd, which will occur immediately prior to Admission to
trading on AIM, the principal business of Red Leopard is intended to be investment in, and management of, branded
hotels.
Harrell Hotels (Europe) Ltd is being acquired for a consideration of up to 2.7m using a mix of cash,shares and/
or loan notes.
DETAILS OF SECURITIES TO BE ADMITTED (i.e. where known, number of shares, nominal value and issue price to which
it seeks admission and the number and type to be held as treasury shares):
189,830,000 ordinary shares of 0.2p each at an issue price of 1p each
CAPITAL TO BE RAISED ON ADMISSION:
Nil
FULL NAMES AND FUNCTIONS OF DIRECTORS AND PROPOSED DIRECTORS:
Robert Michael Coe (Chairman)
Stephen George Thomson (Director)
PERSON(S) INTERESTED IN 3% OR MORE OF THE ISSUER'S CAPITAL, EXPRESSED AS A PERCENTAGE OF THE ISSUED SHARE CAPITAL
STATING WHETHER BEFORE OR AFTER ADMISSION:
At Admission:
Mark Tellwright - 21.07
Baskerville Holdings Limited - 7.90
Michael Yeatts - 6.85
Michael Connell - 7.90
David Moroney - 5.79
Robert Coe - 5.27
James Palmer - 5.27
William Meadon - 5.27
Colin Hearn - 5.27
Anthony Mullineaux - 4.74
Paul Morris - 4.21
WB Nominees Limited - 3.69
Richard Hallett - 3.16
ANTICIPATED ACCOUNTING REFERENCE DATE:
31 December
EXPECTED ADMISSION DATE:
31 March 2005
NAME AND ADDRESS OF NOMINATED ADVISER:
City Financial Associates Limited
Pountney Hill House
6 Laurence Pountney Hill
London EC4R 0BL
NAME AND ADDRESS OF BROKER:
Seymour Pierce Ellis Limited
Talisman House
Jubilee Walk
Three Bridges
Crawley
West Sussex RH10 1LQ
thesaurus
- 24 Mar 2005 19:05
- 208 of 2787
When are results due?
EWRobson
- 28 Mar 2005 00:26
- 210 of 2787
Just catching up after hols. Good the way CFP has held whilst all around have been falling. The important thing about prelims is the statemnt of current trading. We should get a good idea of underlying regular income. Whilst we won't get an update, I doubt, on flotation fees to date, we should get confirmation of the number of current clients in each category. My feel is that the company is much less likely to be be shunted off course by a couple of launch failures; even one of last year's is coming back. There may be further time to invest at present prices but I suspect that the price could move quite significantly if our expectations are confirmed. I hope your holdings are in seven figures! Not 's as you would have had to declare it! Here's a tempter: What is 1 million shares times 10P?
I'm relieved 20:33 on Sunday has past without a post from the dead. Have we had the last post? There's a whiff of Spring in the air!
Eric
arawli
- 28 Mar 2005 12:47
- 211 of 2787
I think it could have been a case of get all the bad news out of the way at once when SB retired. I think people have began to notice that a few transaction went through late last year and hopefully this should make last year not as bad as first thought!
We also know that this year has started off really well for CFP with lots of business coming our way!
I will be in for some more first thing tomorrow as my funds are now available!
All the best
Andy
stockdog
- 28 Mar 2005 13:14
- 212 of 2787
Have done a more detailed analysis of client list, status and potential revenues over this weekend.
Am now fairly confident of 1.00p SP by end of this year on a 1 year prospective PE of 18 and 1.34p by end of 2006 on a 2 year prospective PE of 15, assuming current (2005) levels of existing client retention and new client capture.
Clients to end of 2004 were 23 in number, plus say 4 from early 2005 which "belong" to 2004.
In 2005 there are so far 7 further clients, plus allow 1.5 per month more makes 24 for the year (incl. first 4 "belonging" to 2004), of which assume 60% are NOMAD/broker earning say 22.5k pa plus initial introduction/placing fees and commission and 40% are just NOMAD earning 17.5k pa and zero initial fees (not likely really, but I'm being conservative)
2005
Revenues estimated at 1.838m less overhead of 1.4m (compromise between my and OG's earlier figures), makes profit after 30% tax (again conservative, ignoring b/f tax losses) of 306,600. With market cap of 2.27m this is a PE of 7.4. If PE prospective 1 year from now should be nearer 18 (for a mild growth company), this predicts an SP of 1.00p by year end.
2006 more tentatively
Assume existing 47 clients are retained and 22 new (10% increase only) added, revenues estimated at 2.208m less overhead of say 1.5m, after 30% tax is 496,000 net profit with a PE of 4.58. If PE prospective 2 years from now should be nearer 15, this suggests an SP of 1.34p by end 2006.
This gives a 2006 PEG value of 0.074 - tiny (v. good)
By the way, no increase in prices or size of new client over next two years has been assumed. Whether my figures are accurate or not, it is a good basis from which to measure any change in expectation as we progress through the next two years.
Can I "attach" an excel spreadsheet to this post for those interested in the details, anyone know?
Here's to our "penny" share by Xmas!
SD
moneyplus
- 28 Mar 2005 15:50
- 213 of 2787
Good breakdown SD-clever old dog! My holding is nowhere near 7 figures Eric, I wish!
What I don't understand is why you only expect a sp of 1p surely when there are loads of companies on the market making substantial losses or tiny profits we culd expect better from the sp of CFP when it is increasing it's new business all the time and now looks to be well run ( hopefully) Look at the mining companies for example- some of them have nothing more than hope and some shareholders dosh but the sp shoots up on hot air. I am hoping that once CFP shows its troubles are well behind it we can look to 10p at least.
DUC is a similar share- loss making but still over 1.00
Am I missing something here?
EWRobson
- 28 Mar 2005 23:35
- 214 of 2787
SD - takes the biscuit! I think your assumptions are a baseline and therefore prudent. The AIM market is growing rapidly; CFP are winning a good share of new business and may be one of the most reliable suppliers in their sector. Once figures such as you have quoted are generally accepted, which may be April, then it would be logical for the price to move to 1p. This would be a recovery to the level of expectation after launch. If it is then seen that their regular clients cover their cost base with a bit to spare and the product launcges then go straight through to the bottom line, then the rating could change quite quickly. It would not be implausible to see 1million of such fees being generated in a one year period from April. That should mean a cap of between 15 and 20M or an sp of something like 3p; perhaps that is a reasonable target for this calendar year. Nice to be more cautious than that raging bull, MP (can't use the feminine, can I?)
Eric
arawli
- 29 Mar 2005 08:26
- 215 of 2787
Added 1m at 0.42p first thing this morning will be delayed for an hour should show around 9.15am
All the best
Andy
stockdog
- 29 Mar 2005 10:05
- 216 of 2787
Eric
I think it will take till end of 2006 for annual fees to cover overhead, then as you say, all transactions will go almost straight to the bottom line (talking of Easter chocs again!).
I agree with about 1m pa transaction fees in 2005, growing by 10% pa (conservative).
So 2007 should be an interesting year to see where a then consolidated operating business leads - continued gradual ascent or paradigm shift?
My enthusiasm remains tempered by the fickle nature of the IPO business. Have not researched the expected cycle here. Anyone know how long the current reported upturn in business is expected to last?
Ip I'll be ROFKSWD
3p I'll be COCLABOH !
SD
EWRobson
- 29 Mar 2005 11:12
- 217 of 2787
SD: Interesting post on t1ps.com re 'AIM bubble' in energy stocks. A lot of speculative money chasing a mixed bag of opportunities. But AIM is ideal for new venture funding and I feel that's a trend rather than a cycle - needs to be!
I suspect the limiting factor for CFP at the moment is their number of professionals and the hours in the day. That can be remedied so your 10% growth factor looks cautious - why not 25%?
ROFKSLW is easy for a DM; will need to work on COCLABOH which seems to break new ground for fertile imaginations. MP may be able to crack it!
arawli: well done! good price with subsequent purchases at 0.43p and 0.45p. Looking for steady progression from here.
Eric
moneyplus
- 29 Mar 2005 11:54
- 218 of 2787
Noticed it came to life today---flashed up and then rocketed down again!!
stockdog
- 29 Mar 2005 13:01
- 219 of 2787
Eric, yes, why not 25%, but is the market volume there? Do they have a material USP, or is it mostly reliant on Tony Rawlinson's charisma - can he replicate this asset in his fellow execs? I do agree the growth in AIM is a trend - I forget the statistics, but there has been a massive number of stocks (1000?) listing over last 2/3 years, especially non-trading shells and mineral explorers of all types which may be a cycle.
At least it's still breathing, MP.
Yes, forgot to say well done arawli.
SD
butane
- 29 Mar 2005 18:45
- 220 of 2787
stockdog
- 29 Mar 2005 18:56
- 221 of 2787
Doncha just lerv White Marubozus?
EWRobson
- 29 Mar 2005 19:15
- 222 of 2787
Hey, that is really great. Prefer Red myself but White will do to be going on with! Five star and its not just for accommodation! Wonderful words overall, particularly put together in the order of britishbulls. I am smugly claiming credit for my advice to not have less than 1million - look at all the 1million buys! Now, what does a dog think a 'Marubozu' is? Something with marrow in the middle? 'boze' resonates with a comfortable sleep after a great bone!
But the point about the AIM market is that it is now established as the way of raising money, even for overseas companies, Akers is a US case in point. Clever old London. Type of company will change, type of bubble will change, but its the way to raise money and we speculators love it. Just look at GKK: floats at 1.something p, flares away to 5.something; back to just over 2p and now off again to 3.5p. Wouldn't be surprised if Di hadn't made three separate fortunes already out of it! The CFP team is not kust Rawlinson: have a look at the profiles of the team on their website.
Eric