From EUROPE news today, that they can see some "green shoots"

Further good news by some respected investor below............

Down fast, up fast...

Ken Fisher of Fisher Investments -- 04.06.09

Is the bear market finally over? I don't know. Since the global bottom, world shares are up 23% in sterling. UK shares are up 26%. If that's a bear market rally, it's history's biggest. The longer it runs, the greater the odds this is a bona fide bull, not a sucker's rally. But what folk really want to know is how long it takes to get back to where we were before the bear. My answer: I don't know that either.

I do know that when recovery comes, it will be steeper and faster than you expect. As I said in "V" is for recovery, bear markets bottom in a V shape - the right side about matching the speed and shape of the left, and then the market goes on to new highs. In other words, the steeper and faster the descent, the steeper and faster the climb. We just had a hugely steep descent, so get ready for a wild ride.

Bruised and bloodied investors worry the recovery will be different this time - it may take a decade or more before shares hit previous highs. Some worry they'll never see new highs in their lifetime! This is the tired "it's different this time" notion - shares can't possibly rebound from this particular crash with all its unique and huge problems - that surfaces late in every bear.

Endless headlines claim the recent surge is only a sucker's rally, making comparisons to 1929-1932 - a big crash with a partial recovery then another brutal bear and recession in 1937. They fear instead of a V we'll get an L, with stocks languishing for years (which I don't see happening and next month I'll explain why). But there was no L in the 1930s! Instead, there were several steep Vs - lots of volatility. Stocks didn't move sideways! In the first three months following the1932 bottom, shares soared 92% - you'd like 92% right now.

I hear investors say, "If shares are down 50%, it takes a 100% move to get back to where we were. If the market averages 10% a year, that takes 10 years." My response is: You're right. If the market averages 10% a year - which it does over very long periods. But that 10% includes bear markets. Bulls, by nature, give much higher average returns. Have to, to make up for the bears.
Everyone wants to say today is another 1929-1932. Well if 9 March was the bottom, and if we match the recovery between June 1932 and March 1937, global shares will hit their 2007 peak in March 2010. Fast! Suppose stocks rebound slower - just at their average bull market rate? Then US stocks hit their previous highs in May 2012. UK shares could do it faster, since they fell less.

Think about buying stocks now that you'll want to own in 2012, like these...

Sweden's Sandvik fell 70% in the bear market as the recession whacked sales of its metal-cutting, mining and construction tools as well as specialty alloys based on titanium and zirconium, used in thousands of applications like boiler tubes and flanges. This diverse vendor of industrial supplies is fully global - 50,000 employees in 130 countries. It sells at 70% of annual revenue, 7.5 times depressed earnings and 5 times what I expect for 2010 earnings.

Timken Co. supplies bearings and specialty steels to markets that scare investors - including transportation, mining and aerospace. The worriers assume that it will be killed by Chinese competition. It won't be, any more than it was put out of business 25 years ago by cheap Japanese steel. Why? First, half of what Timken does is marketing. Second, it already operates globally, in 26 countries, including an upcoming factory in Xiangtan, China supplying parts for windmills, for instance. At 30% of annual revenue, at five times my estimate of 2010 earnings and with a 4.75% dividend yield, Timken is too cheap.

Owens Corning can't get a break. This producer of fiberglass and other building products was sent into bankruptcy by asbestos lawyers. It emerged in 2006 just in time for housing to head south and the stock to tank 85% top to bottom. But it is more than holding its own in its markets. Two years from now investors will look back at 2009's valuation - 40% of revenue, 80% of book value - and shake their heads.

Olin is number three (behind Dow and PPG Industries) in the US chlor-alkali business, which means splitting brine into chlorine, caustic soda and hydrogen. Olin also makes Winchester ammunition. Industrial chemicals are a good antidote to inflation. Olin is cheap at 56% of sales and six times earnings with a 6% dividend yield. It would be better if Olin bit the bullet and sold Winchester, but you've got a buy even if it stands pat.

From Times Online -- June 5, 2009

Lloyds braces for shareholder anger at AGM -Nick Hasell and Miles Costello

Lloyds Banking Group is set to come under fire at todays annual meeting in Glasgow from investors angry at its decision to take over the troubled HBOS and to tap them for a further 4 billion to replace part of the Government's bailout package.

The bank, which is 43 per cent owned by the state, will tumble into the red this year after the acquisition of HBOS, which made losses of almost 11 billion last year after writing off bad loans.

The bank has about 2.8 million private investors who have seen the value of Lloyds shares lose more than three quarters of their value over the past 12 months.

UK Financial Investments (UKFI), manager of the Governments stake, has said that it will back all of todays resolutions.

However, a new investor group, called Lloyds Action Now, will be launched at the meeting to explore grounds for legal action by shareholders in the former Lloyds TSB against the directors of the two banks and their advisers.

The UK Shareholders' Association (UKSA), which represents the interests of small shareholders, is also sending a delegation to Lloyds' annual meeting and is likely to ask several questions from the floor of the conference hall.

Todays resolutions include a proposal to re-elect Sir Victor Blank, the chairman, who said last month that he would step down before next years annual meeting after coming under mounting criticism for his role in the HBOS deal.

The number of votes he receives will be closely watched as a measure of protest against the takeover.

Roger Lawson, a director at UKSA, told The Times that he wanted Sir Victor to step down immediately rather than sometime next year as promised last month.

Mr Lawson said that the other Lloyds directors should also be held to account for voting in favour of the HBOS acquisition

"It's always a corporate decision by the board. All the directors supported the decision and they should be held accountable," he said.

UKSA is recommending that shareholders vote against the re-election of Sir Victor, and against any of the directors standing for re-election who backed the HBOS deal.

It is also urging shareholders to veto the Lloyds remuneration report because directors' remuneration retains a strong bonus element.

Shareholders have until midday to take part a share placing that will convert the preference shares owned by the Government into ordinary shares.

If other shareholders snub the issue, UKFI could end up owning 65 per cent.

The results of the vote are expected early next week.

However, the fundraising is expected to receive support because the shares are being offered at 38.43p, a steep discount to Thursdays closing price of 67.1p.

Lloyds is putting 260 billion in toxic assets mostly from HBOS into a taxpayer-backed insurance scheme to shore up its finances.

Step-by-step coverage from Lloyds' AGM

Link to AGM

% take-up being announced 7am monday morning, RNS just out

Barc uses spare money , to buy Lloyds. that would be a Shake up.

Peston mildly positive

Far be it from me to spoil this government's quite astonishingly consistent run of bad news, but there is something mildly positive to say about taxpayers' massive investment in those bashed up banks.

On Monday, and barring an unexpected and improbable disaster, the Exchequer should see approximately 2.3bn returned of the capital it invested in Lloyds Banking Group last autumn.

Or to put it another way, we as taxpayers will get 2.3bn back. Hooray.

Now I know 2.3bn is peanuts in the context of the eyewatering 175bn the Treasury expects to borrow this year (and many economists believe the deterioration in the public finances will be even worse).

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/

peston should be in jail as well MP's, alistair darling, gordon brown and andy hornby, james crosby and fred goodwin

Marni, did Peston offend you or something?

Maybe Marni is remembering the queues at NRK? . . . . . which were prompted by Paston's "scoop" - released in a way that made folk believe the Rock Bank was going Bankrupt, taking their money with it.
- but IMHO what was happening was the beginning of Darling's dithering, possibly due to "shared ownership" between him and GB who some might think was pulling the strings, whilst wondering how things might look at home and Internationally.
Peston, by contrast was only attempting to get the news out before anyone else, with no duty of care, er IMHO.

hangon

re - Peston, by contrast was only attempting to get the news out before anyone else, with no duty of care

That is right,
Certainly the attempt made the real thing worse, I allways thought that the information should have been taken as "INSIDE INFORMATION" and Peston been charge.

SUNDAY EXPRESS

LLOYDS TO CLOSE 1,000 BRANCHES

CLOSURES: At least 400 Lloyds branches will shut initially

NATIONALISED Lloyds Banking Group will this week kick off a branch closure programme that is expected to result in the loss of up to 1,000 branches and 10,000 jobs over the next three years.

Although Lloyds has yet to decide upon exactly how many branches it will shut, it is understood that this week it will announce its intention to start with the closure of about 400 sites. Lloyds has about 3,000 branches.

Lloyds has announced 3,000 redundancies since it acquired HBOS in January and sources say it will announce thousands of job losses every week for the foreseeable future.

Lloyds is looking to axe up to 25,000 jobs from its workforce of about 140,000.

The areas targeted for branch closures are those where the bank has a Lloyds TSB site in direct competition with either a Halifax or Bank of Scotland.


In areas where this is the case, the bank branch that does the least business will be closed.

The branch closures are part of Lloyds efforts to integrate its HBOS acquisition.


However, HBOS had so many toxic assets and losses that Lloyds required a multi-billion-pound government bail-out to cope with them.

On Friday, Lloyds management came under attack from investors who called for a boardroom clear-out at the banks annual meeting.


One irate shareholder called on Sir Victor Blank, the chairman, to leave immediately, right now, this minute.

Although Blank has agreed to resign in the wake of fierce criticism of the initially disastrous takeover last year of HBOS, the mortgage lender, he will stay until next year.

Some investors want Blank, who chairs a bank now 43 per cent owned by the taxpayer, to go sooner and be replaced by Lord Leitch, the deputy chairman.

he announced the hbos thing with lloyds which was about to be announceed to city in good time...........peston is friends with ed balls (gov), a guy (i cant remeber his name) high up in in treasury and a guy high up in lloyds.

so yes, peston had inside info but what he was doing was not just affecting a company or 2.....it could have brought down the whole country!

he's ex FT and we all know how badly its been in last decade if thats the sort of shady character it employs.

also, even richard branston when negotiating NRK debacle pointed out that peston knew the details even before branston.............i think someone from gov including balls was giving him info.

Is the famous green shoots really about to shoot?..........

From The Sunday Times -- June 7, 2009

Is this the turning point?

The green shoots of an economic recovery are starting to appear, but the business world is still anxiously awaiting an upturnDavid Smith: Economics Editor
Most people walking past a former pub in Henley-o -Thames, Oxfordshire, do not realise they are close to one of the nerve centres of the global economy.

In what used to be the Jolly Waterman, a Brakspears pub, a team of 50 economists and researchers is employed by Markit, the financial and economic research company, to compile and analyse survey data from around the world.

Purchasing managers surveys, measuring business-to-business activity, monitor the global economys heartbeat.

After the convulsions of last autumn, when the worlds banking system came close to meltdown, signs of recovery in the Markit surveys began to come through first in emerging economies, notably China, India, Turkey and Brazil.

Last week, however, they were joined convincingly by Britain. The strongest evidence that the economy may be close to the end of recession came with the monthly purchasing managers index (PMI) for Britains services sector.

The PMIs measure business-to-business activity in manufacturing, construction and services. All three sectors have improved in recent months, but last month the PMI for services jumped from 48.7 to 51.7, rising above the key 50 level that marks the divide between expansion and contraction.

Business expectations were at their highest since October 2007, before the credit crisiss real impact, while new business recorded its highest reading since March last year.

The jump in the service-sector PMI pushed the composite measure, which also takes in manufacturing and construction, to 50.4 rising into expansionary territory for the first time since March 2008.

Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, which produces the surveys for the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply, said that, while only services had so far returned to growth, a broad-based turning point had been passed.

Other countries were showing rising PMIs, but Britain was ahead of the pack. The rise in the UK index is notable because comparable indexes for other European countries remain firmly mired in contraction territory, he said.

While cautioning that the relationship between the PMI and official gross domestic product (GDP) figures had been less precise than usual since last autumn, a return to GDP growth was possible as early as this quarter, a year after the economy went into recession.

The PMI surveys present a significant upside risk to the prevailing consensus forecasts, said Williamson.

Many economists agreed. This was a bona fide green shoot, said Simon Hayes, an economist at Barclays Capital. If this positive momentum continues, the economic contraction may end within the next few months, several months ahead of our prior forecast and in startling defiance of the more bearish commentators, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which had been expecting the recession to continue into 2010.

It has cut its forecast of Britains GDP decline this year from 4.2% to 3.5% and now sees recession ending this summer.

Malcolm Barr, an economist at JP Morgan, was more bullish than the consensus before the PMI data and is now convinced that the recession is to all intents and purposes over.

If you were to put me on a desert island and ask me to name one number it would be the PMI, he said. When we talk about the day the economy went back above zero it will be the May data that did it.

I understand that for many people and businesses the transition from the economy falling to the economy stabilising is not a sudden transition to a happy place. Were still in the woods, but were out of the darkest place in the forest.

George Buckley, UK economist at Deutsche Bank, revised his forecasts up on Friday and said the question was not whether there would be a recovery, but its sustainability.

We are bringing forward the timing of the first positive quarter of GDP growth by six months, he said. But the authorities should not take recovery for granted, and it will be important to keep the current stimulus in place for some time until economic growth gains considerable traction. THE purchasing managers surveys were not the only figures last week to suggest the economy may be coming through the worst. House prices have been falling since the autumn of 2007, according to Halifax, with only occasional breaks in the decline.

Prices bounced back 2.6% last month, Halifax said, but it cautioned that it was too early to say a turning point had been reached. Nationwide building society also reported a rise in prices, of 1.2%, in May.

Analysts said further price falls were likely in the coming months, but at a slower pace. Housing activity, measured by mortgage approvals and interest among buyers, has been on the up for some months.

Despite being in the market more than 27 years, Im finding this years trading very surprising, said Martin Bowen-Ashwin of Chesterton Humberts, the estate agent, commenting on property in southwest England. Viewings, offers and sales agreed have significantly improved. Year-on-year turnover for the first five months of trading is up by over 30%.

The beleaguered construction industry, one of the hardest hit by the credit crunch, with output plunging 9% in the first quarter alone enough to trigger a possible downward revision in the GDP figures is also showing modest evidence of stabilisation, after the sharpest downturn in decades.

There are the flickering signs of life in residential and commercial-property markets, said Simon Rubinsohn, an economist with the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors.

Hard data recently showed a very modest rise in housing starts. In addition, the acceleration in public-spending capital programmes should increasingly help to provide support for the construction industry.

One of the most striking developments in recent months has been the collapse in manufacturing, not just in Britain but around the world. The dive in world trade had an immediate impact on factories, as firms slashed output and ran down inventories. Even for manufacturing, however, the news has been getting better.

The shock that we had from the autumn through to the spring led to a pace of decline that was quite startling, said Mark Swift of the Engineering Employers Federation. Things have started to stabilise and we expect some pickup before the end of the year, but any recovery is likely to be anaemic. THAT is the view from the factory floor and is typical of the view in business more generally. Analysts acknowledge that there is a difference between an economists recovery, visible deep in the data, and a genuine business upturn. The board-room view is mainly that the latter is still some way off.

I dont have a crystal ball, but during the last recession at each point when it seemed it could not get any worse, it did, said David Page, chairman of Clapham House Group, the restaurant operator, and former boss of Pizza Express.

I think people are whistling in the dark to keep up spirits when they talk of green shoots. We opened 23 sites in 2007 and well open two this year, so that tells you what we think.

Tim Martin, founder and chairman of JD Wetherspoon, the pub group, said: You can only think that the recession is over if you are looking one inch in front of your nose in a deep fog.

You cant ignore the big picture. Its like saying to your bank manager: ignore the fact that I am hopelessly overdrawn, look at my sales figures for yesterday, they werent as bad as three months ago.

With increasing numbers of people staying at home this summer because of the recession, the travel trade has been hit hard. One leading figure said it was too soon to talk of the end of recession.

It is too early to tell if the recession has bottomed out, said Manny Fontenla-Novoa, group chief executive of Thomas Cook. A full recovery is sure to take some time, and the final sign will be when unemployment stops rising.

On this, the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) warns that even if the economy is showing signs of bottoming, the job market will deteriorate for some time.

We shouldnt get carried away by talk of green shoots when it comes to employment prospects, said Gerwyn Davies, CIPD public-policy adviser.

The jobs market may be contracting at a slower pace, but it is continuing to contract all the same, with unemployment of more than 3m on the way as we head toward 2010.

Keith Ludeman, chief executive of Go Ahead, the quoted bus, rail and airport ground-handling group, is well-placed to assess where the economy is. Different parts of the business are at different points in the cycle, he said. In air cargo, its down 30% and there are some signs that its hit the bottom. On air passengers, we are not at the bottom airlines are still cutting back their schedules for the summer, which has a knock-on effect on us. On bus- es, ridership is still growing, but largely in concessionary fares. On rail, growth has slowed right down.

Not everybody is downbeat. Aidan Connolly, chief executive of Sodexo UK and Ireland, the food services and facilities management firm, said: We have been less affected than others as our clients look to outsource to find cost efficiencies in their operations. While early days, there are indications that we are over the worst of it and we are cautiously optimistic that things are improving.

Henry Engelhardt, chief executive of Admiral, the car insurance specialist, said his firm had benefited from being fairly recession-proof. Were fortunate as we havent seen anything of the recession, he said. Car insurance is a compulsory purchase, which means consumers arent deciding whether to buy it, theyre just asking who from?

In the first quarter we continued our strong growth, increasing customers more than 15%. On the employee side we continue to recruit. We are all still having lots of fun as well as working hard.

Peter Harmer, chief executive of Aon, the insurer, said the question was whether the recent improvement in confidence could be maintained. If the consumer thinks the recession is over, then it is. It seems now to hinge on confidence.

Those whose job it is to read economic trends say business should be grateful for the signs of optimism that are out there.

David Yarrow, founder of Clareville Capital, the hedge fund, said: If you had asked FTSE 100 chief executives at the end of September where they expected us to be at the start of June, I think they would be pleasantly surprised with how robust it is with the exception of commercial property.

The key has been the strength of emerging markets such as Brazil and China. The economy is not out of the woods but it is better than people thought and there is much less uncertainty than before.

And that, given where the economy was a few weeks ago, is encouraging. The global economy has not hit bottom yet, but the worst of the slow- down is over, said John Lipsky of the IMF on Friday. Figures in America showed nonfarm employment dropped 345,000, below the 500,000 expected.

Is the recession over? Not quite. But the evidence is that it could soon be. Additonal reporting by Matthew Goodman

WHAT SOME OF THE COUNTRYS BUSINESS LEADERS SAY . . .

During the last recession, at each point when it seemed it couldnt get worse, it did David Page, chairman of Clapham House Group

You can only think its over if you are looking one inch from your nose in a deep fog Tim Martin, chairman of JD Wetherspoon

The indications are we are over the worst of it. Were cautiously optimistic Aiden Connelly, chief executive of Sodexo UK and Ireland

We continue to recruit and are still having lots of fun as well as working hard Henry Engelhardt, chief executive of Admiral insurance

If consumers think its over, then it is. It seems now to hinge on confidence Peter Harmer, chief executive of Aon

The economy is not out of the woods, but there is much less uncertainty than before David Yarrow, founder of Clareville Capital

Staggering that Hornby is being considered for a board post... I wouldn't employ him to flip burgers

its a national disgrace!! the guy should be in jail......still biying huge amount of propewrty last year when no-one was buying.....its as if he did it on purpose to bankrupt hbos

looks like another week of battering for the banks - but this seems the worst hit on every scrap of news released, if its bad news on the 'take up offer' could be a good buying opportunity at the 40 - 50p mark. Still be a long haul upwards though.

87% take up of shares.

Good take up from the open offer..............the shares down with the market at the moment FTSE 60 points on the red ........

UPDATE: Lloyds Banking Rights Issue 87% Subscribed

Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LYG) said Monday that shareholders took up 87% of its GBP4 billion rights issue being used to redeem government-held preference shares in a move aimed at cutting financing costs and freeing the bank to pay dividends.

It said the advisers managing the offer will try to place the 13% of remaining shares in the market. As long as the offer is fully taken up by shareholders the government's stake in the bank will for the time being stay at 43.5%.

Lloyds shareholders on Friday voted overwhelmingly in favor of replacing the government-held preference shares with ordinary shares.

The Times reported Monday that Lloyds is expected to repay about GBP2.3 billion to the U.K. Government this week, becoming the first lender in Europe to return bailout money to the taxpayer.

Replacing its preference shares will save the bank GBP480 million in annual interest to the government and would allow it to pay dividends. Conditions attached to the government-held shares prevented it from paying dividends until all of the shares had been redeemed.

Chairman Victor Blank said Friday he was confident the rights issue would be well subscribed as Lloyds shares had traded well above the 38.43 pence issue price of the new shares.

The shares fell in early trading Monday. At 0710 GMT, they were down 2 pence, or 2.9% at 64 pence. They have fallen 36% since the start of the year and are down 76% over the last 12 months.

Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock Monday to buy from sell, lifting its target price to 100 pence from 35 pence. It said the shares present a value opportunity even though there was a risk they would underperform in the short term because of pressure on margins and loan losses in the first half earnings.

The preference shares were issued in connection with a total GBP17 billion capital increase by HBOS and Lloyds TSB before they merged in January, which resulted in the government taking a 43.5% stake in the combined group.

Since the merger, amid a steep increase in impairments stemming in large part from HBOS' commercial loans portfolio, Lloyds has joined the government's asset protection scheme to protect itself from further losses on troubled or risky assets.

Lloyds has insured assets valued at GBP250 billion, of which 83% were identified as former HBOS loans.

Lloyds is paying a GBP15.6 billion fee for the scheme, and must also cover first losses up to GBP25 billion, after which the insurance kicks in and the government will bear 90% of further losses.

The bank said in early May that it has already incurred impairments that are covered by the scheme.

To finance the fee as well as the first loss, Lloyds is planning to issue B-shares that carry a fixed dividend to the government, which could take its stake to 62% if converted to ordinary shares

Presure on the shares as the rest of unsold shares at the placing, are looking for a HOME,
at the same time the day is not right as the FTSE is well down

...................... Intraday Chart ........................................................................... 7 days