Why are we again at 10.5p bid?

It doesn't add up...

Good Results + Strong buying pre results + Christmas online buying soon = Price drop

Then again some companies that have debt for equity hanging in the balance, poor results and bankruptcy around the corner and they go up!

Why sell now at a loss?

Wont that be a kick in the teeth when we see 13.5p 14p again!

Best of luck all.

Roy

i think you're right. Just read through cybs results - inital view as follows:

no mention of patent infringement (avoiding egg on face?)
beat mkt expectations of revenue by 10% in 4th quarter
no of transactions up 50% yoy
share price rose over 6% in after hours trading

confirms that rtds fraud marketplace is growing at an exceptional rate

Key for the short term is still the first point - CYBS not prepared to mention the litigation in their annual results!

Just listened to Cybs conference call:

2004 Results:

Cybs have more than 6000 customers mainly gateway only (1600 added in last qtr - majority were online start-ups)

pure EPS (excluding restructuring costs reversal) of 0.08c (on a closing share price of approx $6.70 (up 12 % after hours) gives a current PE of approx 84!!!!!!!!!)

Focus on small/medium enterprises to increase customer count (is it because RTD are winning all the big ones?)

total worldwide online fraud up 37% in 2004 (approx $2.6bn)

Cybs save their customers 24% of losses (is that all?)

200% growth in UK (including debenhams, polaroid and easyjet as new customers)

independent survey - 98% cybs met or exceeded expectations

$45m cash at bank - will use some for share buybacks


2005 f/c:

eps 0.14c (fwd pe of 48 ish)

v bullish on UK market



Questions section:

they have a sales team of 25 (thought it would be bigger)

85% of total revenue is recurring (15% is initial/one offs)

Asked for a view on competitors - 3 main players in payment gateway - others were verisign and authorisenet

assuming a tax rate in 2005 of 2%!!!!!

god the yanks ask some c**p!!!! most were just trying to make themselves sound smart and failing

Below is a copy of a post i posted in reply to comments elsewhere:

hi all

having read the earlier comments on here re institutional support, pe comparisons to cybersource and uk vs us listing one thing that came to mind from cybersource conference call yesterday was the questions segment - all but 1 question were asked by institution representatives - only 1 was from a private investor. each of the institutional analysts were on first name terms with the ceo and cfo and were very supportive and congratulatory of cybersource performance. the questions they asked were mainly about minor details on accounting specifics the main one being the level of accruals - currently cant imagine RTD having the same Q&A session - it would be all private investors and 1 institution.

I wonder how many of those analysts have even heard of RTD - those that have would probably assume a small UK company who tried to copy what cybersource did - i wonder how they would react if you put both companies accounts side by side and asked them what RTD share price should be based on Cybs rating!!!!

Fair comment Fund but I do need to keep repeating the point that you cannot compare the 2 companies because of RTD's petrol business (which will not maintain the same growth rate as its cnp business).

Pach

agreed to a certain extent, though in no way is the fraud part of the business rated as highly as cybs.

that said, the fuel card business is a nice cash cow to underpin the fraud business and is still growing itself. be interesting a year or two down the line whether there would be a consideration to selling the fuel card business or demerging it

Thanks for the analysis and updates Pach and Fundy. Still holding. Day charts volumes and Price increase my expectations of better things to come.

thanks for the informed coments folks you answer the questions I couldn't think of to ask, good to be in your company :o) D.

Good to see RTD slowly heading in the right direction - the slower the better in my book because it suggests longer term holders buying in based on obvious future potential rather than 80% traders looking for massive gains by going long before and short after results. My guess is 43p just before results, a drop to 34p after results (very briefly) and 60p by the end of 2005.

Goldman Sachs have "cast in stone" support levels and by the looks of things there are other small cap. funds getting in on the action too which will give further support should there be a spell of mass profit taking after results.

I agree with the rest of you guys - the fuel card business provides the best possible springboard for growing the CNP business short term. Loads more people got "on-line" after Christmas who would a couple of years ago have never dreamed of buying a computer. I've heard reports of a massive upturn in internet buying just in the first weeks of this year - all bodes very favourably for the future.

evening og

see you are predicting a short term dip after results - wouldnt be too much of a surprise after last year - dont think it will be as severe as you suggest - will depend how in excess of fcasts results are

ps i see my posts are appearing everywhere these days lol

Fundy, After a long day - I couldn't force myself to wade through the Cyber blurb to extract the salient bits, but after reading your summary it couldn't go unmissed - many thanks.

I'm looking at the worst possible scenario (which still looks pretty good to me!). I think anyone looking to short RTD after results may be in for a bumpy ride - Many will try by simply looking at the chart, but the good news is that they all have buy back at some point and that'll set the sp soaring up again!

OG

no probs - one of my friends emailed me and asked if i also posted as overgrowth lol!!!!!

i think the risk reward is not in place for the shorters this year - the fundamentals will be too strong - theyll probably still try mind

the more i look at this share the less i worry about short term fluctuations - i just try and picture what the results will be like in 2 yrs time

Me too!

Hi, have been trading R/D.For best part of a decade.They traded in the nineties as card clear any one recall this? R/D and universe Gp.came out of CC.and they w
ent their own merry ways.
Never before has the future looked so rosy for R/D and its long suffering investors.
The forth comming results will be mega positive resulting in a surge in its price short term,even better medium to long.
Take the advice of a hold hand dip your bread,top up now i intend to!

Come on Douggie give us a smile. Nice ballance of Buys -Sells. Long may it last
(8-)

Hi Fred :o)))

Isn't it quiet. I am beginning to drop in here when I want a rest. Is it ow enought to top up again ?

No Fred - please go back to bed and continue with your rest (I think Douggie did not even manage to wake up this morning so you are one up on him). Perhaps worth waiting for stronger evidence of T trading before committing further funds. Nice to hear from you (or anybody for that matter) - best of luck with your other shares. Yawn .........zzzzzzzzzzzzz.

we have all gone on holiday with douggie,back soon at 40-45 (hopefully)

I will put the kettle on, but aren't BPRG and SEO doing well. Don't really understand why generaly when the market moves down my shares seem to go up more rapidly. Not complaining just wishing I understood why.

Hi all I keep looking in but there isn't anything to say at the moment is there,everything XXXXd that there will be a nice big buy spree pre results, I can't buy anymore fully commited from long ago. ;o\