The CEO states Tullow sp is much too low and I bought in on the comments---todays results are excellent and I feel this one is being overlooked on here. check it out bargain hunters-I'd welcome some expert feedback!

btw, you have a little e

Heres that news i was going on about a little earlier...

must have upped it after the confrence call

Deutsche Bank has a buy for Dana Petroleum, raising target to 13.50 from 13.35, has a buy for Premier Oil, raising target to 13.75 from 13.60, has a hold for SABMiller, cutting target to 10.00 from 10.50 and has a buy for Tullow Oil, raising target to 10.10 from 890p

http://sharecrazy.com/beta/Broker-Recommendations/1574/what-the-brokers-say


ONE of the BETTER brokers aswell.

so sell heavily - lol!!

NOPE..

Nasty sell off after results today can only put it down to profit taking.

Brokers galore I reckon lining up new forecasts...here s how they stand so far but Im expecting new ones coming in very soon...

Tullow Oil PLC

FORECASTS
2008 2009

Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Exane BNP Paribas
10-03-09 BUY 533.00 19.55 6.00 113.00 5.40 6.00

Evolution Securities Ltd
09-03-09 BUY 407.30 14.90 6.00 527.30 45.40 6.30

Numis Securities Ltd
09-03-09 HOLD 29.10 3.10

Merrion - Landsbanki
09-03-09 BUY 20.20 6.00 14.20 6.50

Davy Stockbrokers
09-03-09 None 18.90 6.30 10.40 6.60

Oriel Securities
09-03-09 BUY 269.00 20.40 6.50 131.00 8.50 7.00

Charles Stanley
06-03-09 HOLD

Teathers
04-03-09 BUY 344.73 60.96 4.00 86.79 4.00

Goodbody Stockbrokers
20-02-09 BUY 28.50 6.50 19.20 7.00

ABN AMRO
10-02-09 BUY 273.02 22.53 6.00 146.95 8.60 4.50

NCB Stockbrokers Ltd
05-02-09 BUY 25.72 4.70 21.30 4.79

2008 2009
Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS
(p) DPS (p)

Consensus 322.57 22.20 6.19 118.71 10.91 6.35
1 Month Change 8.95 1.15 0.01 -12.09 -2.35 -0.22
3 Month Change 3.56 -0.84 -0.05 -102.29 -11.62 -0.24


GROWTH
2007 (A) 2008 (E) 2009 (E)

Norm. EPS -37.96% 25.88% -50.86%
DPS 10.00% 13.05% 2.58%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2007 (A) 2008 (E) 2009 (E)
EBITDA 471.81m 538.36m 370.45m
EBIT 266.01m 314.00m 158.44m
Dividend Yield 0.67% 0.76% 0.78%
Dividend Cover 3.22x 3.59x 1.72x
PER 46.07x 36.60x 74.47x
PEG -1.21f 1.41f -1.46f
Net Asset Value PS -35.88p 122.55p 146.10p

so why aren't they all piling in for their clients then?
is it because "when my broker says buy, he means sell"?

is this code for saying 'you have now sold' cyners????

not at all ..... perhaps i should change faith and become a martyr so i get 27 virgins to wait upon me!

Nymex falling under $44 ahead of opec meeting is this due to poor stats from china and germany?

no idea ..... these things have a mind of their own sometimes, just as gold has crashed for the last few days but is currently +$15.40

Went out after my last post (about 10am) come back and see they've taken it down further to 758p! still only profit taking IMHO... Don't panic mr... -):

Added later this afternoon.

Some see this fall as bad , i see it as an opportunity.

Todays Independant...

Investment Column: Buy Tullow Oil - Hold Ark Therapeutics - Hold Chime Communications

Cyners, TLW should really bomb if Opec cut production targets on Sunday

Certainly as some heavy Broker backing....

Tullow Oil PLC

SUMMARY CHARTS DIRECTOR DEALINGS FORECASTS WIRES
2009 2010
Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)
Davy Stockbrokers [R]
12-03-09 None 10.40 6.60 17.00 7.00
Exane BNP Paribas [R]
12-03-09 BUY 113.00 5.40 6.00 253.00 15.07 6.00
Evolution Securities Ltd [R]
11-03-09 BUY 30.50 6.30 33.40 6.50
Oriel Securities [R]
11-03-09 BUY 131.00 8.50 7.00 232.00 16.30 7.50
Numis Securities Ltd [R]
09-03-09 HOLD 3.10
Merrion - Landsbanki [R]
09-03-09 BUY 14.20 6.50
Charles Stanley
06-03-09 HOLD
Teathers [R]
04-03-09 BUY 86.79 4.00 109.04 4.00
Goodbody Stockbrokers [R]
20-02-09 BUY 19.20 7.00 21.30 7.50
ABN AMRO [R]
10-02-09 BUY 146.95 8.60 4.50
NCB Stockbrokers Ltd [R]
05-02-09 BUY 21.30 4.79 19.09 2.94


GROWTH
2008 (A) (E) (E)
Norm. EPS 79.95% % %
DPS 9.58% % %

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2008 (A) (E) (E)
EBITDA m m m
EBIT m m m
Dividend Yield 0.80% % %
Dividend Cover 5.29x x x
PER 23.57x x x
PEG 0.30f f f
Net Asset Value PS p p p

New broker note just out....

RBS has a buy for Tullow Oil, cutting target to 10.50 from 10.70p...........



Plenty in from here then.

More good news....

Friday, 13 March, 2009, 10:37 GMT
Tullow gets Uganda green light

News wires

Uganda's environmental authority has approved an early production scheme by Tullow Oil, removing a legal hurdle for development of crude in the Albertine basin.

The UK-based explorer said on Wednesday hydrocarbon finds in the east African nation were large enough to justify export-led development, with resources of some 600 million barrels.

Uganda's state energy minister told Reuters in an interview last month that the land-locked nation wanted to scrap the idea of a mini-refinery in favour of a larger one due to the size of the reserves.

"We approved the environmental aspects of early production," Naomi Karekaho, spokeswoman for the National Environment Management Authority (NEMA), told Reuters.

The semi-autonomous body said Tullow had to move the proposed site 2 kilometres from the Kabwoya Wildlife Reserve and Hwoha River to a community wildlife area. The reserve is home to some endangered species, she said.

NEMA said Tullow must also get permits from the Uganda Wildlife Authority and the Petroleum Exploration & Production Department.

President Yoweri Museveni's government expects to start pumping some oil in 2010 or 2011 - near the time of elections when the ex-guerrilla leader is expected to stand for a fourth term - but production was initially expected earlier.

"The delays are based both on the commercial viability and the political assessment," said analyst Angelo Izama. "(Early production) might signal more of a political success for Museveni in the lead up to elections."

Excelent recent article from Edmond Jackson on Tullow Oil...

Tullow oils the wheels of recovery

Edmond Jackson
12.03.09 10:36


Despite all the corporate doom and a supposedly depressed outlook for commodities in the downturn, FTSE 100-listed Tullow Oil (TLW) is proving a success story that looks to have plenty further to run - on a two to three year investment view.

Excellent exploration news from Africa and a new banking facility to help bring it into production has just recently helped spur a rally above 800p, also coinciding with prelimiminary results. But as is often the case after a spate of good news, and especially in jittery markets, profit takers have pulled the price back nearer 750p where it is interesting to follow.

The chart for Cairn Energy (CNE), another mid cap graduated to the FTSE 100 (UKX), shows how E&P shares can be a terrific roller coaster, however Cairn arguably had some shortcomings and the Tullow management's execution looks to be 'as good as it gets' in this sector.

The medium-term investment rationale looks attractive from various perspectives.

'Top down', it is possible that oil prices remain low but the $20 a barrel prices occasionally mooted are likely a worst case scenario. Prices appeared to find a floor in the mid-$30s and trade in a $40 range as OPEC convenes recognising the need to implement production cuts. You cannot expect to outwit oil in the short to medium term yet it remains an essential commodity and currently reduced investment in new fields raises the prospect of another oil price spike when demand eventually resumes.

'Bottom up', Tullow's share price recovery, now just 20% down from its peak last year despite oil prices substantially lower, implies corporate vigour - step changes in underlying value resulting from exploration success, the touchstone for E&P investors.

Last year in Ghana and Uganda, a remarkable 100% success rate was achieved from 15 wells with 281 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe) added to the African portfolio and 1.8 billion boe of gross upside potential via the Jubilee field offshore Ghana. In Uganda, a 300 million boe field, Buffalo-Giraffe, was discovered. End-2008 reserves rose to 800 million boe from 551 million, showing the upside potential in context of just a few projects - why the market has shown itself willing to re-rate the shares so substantially. Tullow is capitalised at about 6 billion.

Last Monday (9 March), the company announced another significant high pressured oil discovery in its Deepwater Tano licence offshore Ghana, "optimally located to penetrate multiple targets including the edge of an undrilled major Turonian fan system." This is another potential billion barrel plus prospect, with scope for further wells. It is worth visiting www.tullowoil.com for further information, also on the group's internationally diversified portfolio.

It is easy to see West Africa as the main driver for Tullow, since some of the other regions' performance is mixed. It does introduce an aspect of political risk although such is the nature of the oil & gas industry. Without making too much of this you should still be aware. South America is another region where Tullow has high-impact exploration.

2008 pre-tax profit soared 162% to 299 million with basic earnings per share up 335% to 30.9p however note that the final dividend was held at 4.0p meaning an effectively flat total dividend of 6.0p. The payout policy implies a fall in profit from production this year with oil prices much lower.


Wide-ranging forecasts
Company REFS shows brokers' 2009 forecasts ranging widely from 113 million to 200 million pre-tax profit which looks very modest relative to a market value of about 6 billion. Indeed, the shares' price-earnings multiple is implicitly a 'scary' 60 times, assuming projected earnings per share of 13p for 2009, and it is possible the market will fret about this until more substantive production kicks in from Ghana, currently targeted for 2010. Production rates of about 100,000 boe per day are being entertained. Tullow's track record implies good chances of delivery hence it is worth using the shares' current volatility to look for an entry point.

It is well nigh impossible to find another substantive oil & gas company which replaced its reserves by 582% last year and is positioning itself nicely for the inevitable rebound in oil prices with economic recovery.

Tullow's financial position has been affirmed by its banks agreeing US $2 billion of new reserve based debt facilities, replacing the group's existing arrangements to help fund Tullow's future capital commitments. There was also a 9% dilutive share placing at 600p in January which raised 402 million.

The plan is to invest over $3 billion equivalent to develop the Jubilee field offshore Ghana to be pumping oil from there in 2010. Some 4 billion barrels of oil and gas resources are targeted in the Gulf of Guinea offshore Ghana and the Ivory Coast.

Among news to watch for in the months ahead will be the outcome of high-impact drilling on Ngassa-2 well in Uganda. Development news will likely involve the first phase of the Jubilee field in Ghana, to meet the target of first oil in the second half of 2010.

Tullow shows why E&P can be attractive for active investors at all stages of the economic cycle. When such a company starts to show successful drilling on a major prospect this can mean a better risk/reward profile on the shares because it implies a higher chance of boosting reserves. The industry term is 'de-risking' although as with the term 're-rating' you should be aware this means a significant change (not elimination of risk). Investors in any oil & gas company need to be of enterprising outlook, steeled for above average risks.

The directors own substantial equity, the chief executive with 6 million shares and three others well over one million shares, which aligns their interests well with 'buy and hold' investors.

It is hard to stipulate an exact entry point for the shares, likewise a firm target price at this stage, but overall the progress reported last week makes Tullow's risk/reward profile look about the most attractive in the UK E&P sector. This is a company/share to take seriously despite the wider economic woes.

Oil prices starting to rev back up again now after falling this morning.

indeed, with gold reversing as one would expect, but which has not been happening of late .... markets overall are interesting and i have closed all my short positions as think they are too dangerous ..... there could easily be a stampede north if a bear squeeze gets under way

Which looks like its on the cards at the present moment.