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British Airways are they overvalued at 200p (BAY)     

mitzy - 15 Apr 2008 12:27

Recent problems with the new T5 Terminal at Heathrow have resulted in more problems for BA when will they recover their No1 position.

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=BAY&Si

cynic - 06 Nov 2009 11:30 - 207 of 327

exponential meaning what exactly?

skinny - 06 Nov 2009 11:37 - 208 of 327

Harry - where are you getting the % short - advfn no longer carry it!

skinny - 06 Nov 2009 11:39 - 209 of 327

Here you go Cynic - Exponential Moving Average - clear as mud!

Toya - 06 Nov 2009 11:48 - 210 of 327

That's exactly what I thought Skinny! Sounds impressive though!

Toya - 06 Nov 2009 11:51 - 211 of 327

You've actually managed to find a much more intelligible explanation than I came across

HARRYCAT - 06 Nov 2009 12:15 - 212 of 327

16% figure came from the FT today, but was an isolated bit of information. I still haven't found a website that provides multi short positions.

cynic - 12 Nov 2009 10:31 - 213 of 327

do i sense a strong smell of burnt flesh in the air ...... bears burning their paws badly while running fast for cover by the looks of it

HARRYCAT - 12 Nov 2009 11:11 - 214 of 327

Unconfirmed rumour:
"Iberia's supervisory board meets today to decide on merger with BA, according to sources familiar with the situation. With no last minute hiccup, the merger will be announced in a few hours' time, or, much less likely, the termination of talks.
After 16 months of negotiations, the exchange ratio has been established at
45/55 IBLA:BAY. according to the same sources."

cynic - 12 Nov 2009 11:57 - 215 of 327

from Reuters at 11:49 today ....

The boards of British Airways and Spain's Iberia are holding separate board meetings to consider a merger to create the world's third largest airline by revenue, they said on Thursday.
"Further to recent market speculation, British Airways confirms that the British Airways and Iberia Boards are holding separate meetings today, 12 November, to consider a potential transaction," BA said in a statement.
"However, no decisions have been taken and, at this time, there can be no guarantee that a transaction will be forthcoming. A further announcement will be made in due course, if appropriate."
Iberia also said it had taken no decision on the potential deal and there was no guarantee a transaction would take place.

cynic - 12 Nov 2009 14:07 - 216 of 327

looks as though it's a done deal, even though not officially confirmed ...... deep fried shorters are today's tasty special!!

MADRID, Nov 12 (Reuters) 13:56 - Spanish airline Iberia's board has approved a merger with British Airways , El Pais reported on its website on Thursday.
Iberia chairman Antonio Vazquez will be chairman of the new company, whose headquarters will be in London, the newspaper said.
Iberia declined to comment on the report.

HARRYCAT - 12 Nov 2009 14:12 - 217 of 327

Someone on the FT site said "possibly time to short BAY based on 'Buy on rumour, sell on fact'.
The reply came back "if you want to sell the news on a confirmed merger, be my guest!"

halifax - 12 Nov 2009 14:18 - 218 of 327

BA+IBERIA= 1 LARGE DUD LOSSMAKING AIRLINE, this merger solves none of their problems, it merely delays the inevitable.

cynic - 12 Nov 2009 14:21 - 219 of 327

hello Happy Larry ..... does that mean you are shorting BAY? ..... a lot of what you write is good stuff, but sometimes, as here, you talk as big a load of codswallop as i do!

per the 5 year chart below, 240 would look to be the immediate short term obstacle, with 280 etc as and when or if sp gets that far

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=BAY&Si

cynic - 12 Nov 2009 14:38 - 220 of 327

some more stuff via Reuters


Following are some key facts about the potential new carrier:
-- Aircraft: 408 aircraft (BA 244; Iberia 164*)
-- Destinations: 259 airports (BA 150; Iberia 109)
-- Passengers per year: 61.5 million (33 million, Iberia 28.5 million*)
-- Staff: 63,600 (BA 42,000; Iberia 21,600)

-- Turnover (2009E**): $21.65 billion (BA 8.9 bln stg; Iberia 4.6 bln eur)
-- Pretax profit (2009E**): BA 401 mln stg pretax loss; Iberia 228.8 mln euro loss)


RATIONALE

-- Greater financial muscle and more routes to compete with European giants Air France-KLM and Lufthansa
-- Cost savings and greater buying power on fuel, aircraft, IT and other products that analysts estimate is worth some 550 million euros a year through to 2015.
-- Very few overlapping routes. Iberia has the biggest share of the Europe-Latin America market, while BA is the leading airline on North Atlantic routes and has strong Europe-Asia connections

-- Ends BA's two-year chase for Iberia. Fulfils Iberia's long-time desire for consolidation

cynic - 12 Nov 2009 14:41 - 221 of 327

while the above by no means solves all the underlying problems, it goes a long way towards doing so, and that is before the inevitable consolidation of personnel etc and other significant savings through economy of scale

meanwhile, as the recesssion seems to be drawing to a close, there will be an increase in air traffic as the months pass - i.e. look 12 months hence

skinny - 12 Nov 2009 15:25 - 222 of 327

I don't really care about the outcome - but I've taken 10 points from these today.

halifax - 12 Nov 2009 16:03 - 223 of 327

Another classic disaster in the making.... bigger is not better.

cynic - 12 Nov 2009 16:15 - 224 of 327

no one said it was .... did you have a bad oyster at lunchtime?

skinny - 12 Nov 2009 16:18 - 225 of 327

And another +3 short.

cynic - 12 Nov 2009 16:25 - 226 of 327

i would have liked to have seen sp stay above 220, but never mind ..... i shall continue to hold for the time being and shall see what the press has to say ..... overall, i should think it will be quite positive, both for the merger itself and for air traffic outlook in general

m8 halifax has gone all huffy-puffy about BAY, but that is similarly true of TLW ..... not that all my faves come up smelling of roses by any means, but it's fun to tease the shoddy-maker
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