The first ASOS Challenge was successful in the sense that it taught us a few lessons on investment timing. Only three of 11 shares ended in profit and that included ASOS itself: congratulations to legend for BNH and bosley for SEO. Back to the drawing board for the rest of us (over the year the portfolio would have thrashed any opposition!).

Participants welcome for the second challenge. Primary objective is to find shares that will double in value by 1st July, beating ASC in the process; secondary to be most successful stock-picker in terms of the value of your 20K portfolio. Rules are:

1.Each participant has 20K which can go into 1,2,3 or 4 shares in units of 5K.
2.ASC has 20K and is team yardstick, not in individual portfolios.
3.Duplication between entrants OK with no upper limit for total for one share.
4.Start weekend of 21st Jan. Buy price half way between closing offer and mid.
5.Latest time of entry to be 8 pm on Sunday, 23rd Jan.
6.Challenge to close Friday, 1st July.
7.Entrants can switch up to a total of 10K; av. of Friday close bid and mid.
8.Progress reports to rank shares by performance but also participants (initial only to protect from the ridicule of outsiders!).

Participants welcome. Just post selection here or on ASC thread.

Eric

I can't believe that ASOS is still getting all this "thread time". I bought ASOS when they were 29p (ie I was way too late), having watched them (embarrasingly) from about 12p, and I sold around 54 to 57p. With respect, most of you guys were far too late on the story, and I find it amazing that you are all so keen.

It is now just an ordinary share that went well past it's peak. Instead of trying to squeeze some extra mileage out of something that clearly peaked some time ago, and is therefore likely to lose you money if you invest in it, surely you should be looking for the new ASOS and accept that you missed the boat first time around. I realise that this is tough talk - but let's get real!!

rgrds
gk

Eric, enjoy your holiday.

Yes CASH and WNN doing very nicely over the last couple of days. WNN motoring again first thing today in preparation for the results on Monday which incidentally is the day of MOBs results also.

CASH are very lowly rated and only a matter of time before they breach 1.50 imo, recent announcements of major holdings has given them a push in that direction.

WNN are growing fast and at a discount to the sector, serious re-rating to come here I reckon.

Evil shorting NLR has certainly not helped their share price but does provide a good buying opportunity if it falls much further.

good luck everyone

capa

Second ASOS Challenge Portfolio

A drop of 3% in the portfolio voer the two weeks which generally follows the small-cap market with profit taking before the tax year end. SEO has stretched its lead following announcement of the ASDA contract and the major pursuers, HCEG, NLR and BGT all falling away. ASC fell to last place and there were significant fallers down the list.

epic cost___ shares_ price_ value gain% week
SEO_ 7.19___ 456900_ 18.125 82813 152.1 6.6__ BBSSUUW(137)
HCEG 63_____ 7935___ 102.75 8153_ 63.1_ -14.7 O(151)
NLR_ 394.5__ 5080___ 600___ 30480 52.1_ -20.6 CDMM(137)
CFP_ 0.28___ 3570000 0.41__ 14637 46.4_ 5.1__ WY(137)
BGT_ 130.5__ 7660___ 177.5_ 13597 36.0_ -14.5 JJ(137)
AGL_ 128.25_ 3900___ 171.5_ 6689_ 33.7_ 6.2__ B(137)
TRT_ 87_____ 5750___ 112.5_ 6469_ 29.3_ -8.9_ K(151)
DFD_ 136____ 3675___ 172.5_ 6339_ 26.8_ -2.5_ A(151)
PCI_ 10.625_ 47000__ 13.375 6286_ 25.9_ -2.7_ T(151)
DGM_ 18.19__ 110000_ 21.875 24063 20.3_ 5.4__ BEMS(137)
MOB_ 230.75_ 2165___ 271.5_ 5878_ 17.7_ -13.4 C(151)
BAG_ 811____ 615____ 942.5_ 5796_ 16.2_ 0.0__ P(151)
AEN_ 697.5__ 717____ 807.5_ 5790_ 15.8_ -10.3 J
KCOM 62_____ 16100__ 71.625 11532 15.5_ 1.6__ OO(151)
BGC_ 84.8___ 5900___ 97.5__ 5753_ 15.0_ 4.8__ K(137)
RSG_ 466.25_ 1070___ 532.5_ 5698_ 14.2_ -1.4_ P(151)
IDS_ 212.5__ 4700___ 242.0_ 11374 13.9_ 0.0__ GH(151)
CRDA 327.375 1525___ 365.5_ 5574_ 11.6_ -4.4_ P(151)
WNN_ 268.5__ 1790___ 287.5_ 5146_ 7.1__ 12.5_ C
ACE_ 258.25_ 1935___ 270___ 5225_ 4.5__ 10.9_ G(151)
TND_ 22.5___ 111000_ 23.5__ 26085 4.4__ -1.1_ LLLLR(173)
CIU_ 162.25_ 3080___ 167.5_ 5159_ 3.2__ -1.2_ G(173)
CEY_ 12.625_ 39600__ 13____ 5148_ 3.0__ -13.3 I(137)
EPD_ 51_____ 9805___ 52.5__ 5148_ 2.9__ 7.1__ I(173)
GWP_ 120.25_ 8315___ 122.5_ 10186 1.9__ -8.2_ EE(151)
AUG_ 256.25_ 3900___ 255___ 9945_ -0.5_ -4.7_ DE(173)
GHH_ 191.5__ 2610___ 190.5_ 4972_ -0.5_ -14.4 G(151)
BPG_ 667.625 1500___ 653.5_ 9803_ -2.1_ -6.2_ DP(151)
PET_ 53.75__ 9300___ 52____ 4836_ -3.3_ -5.5_ R(177)
THUS 15.19__ 32900__ 14.375 4729_ -5.4_ -4.2_ O(151)
SPS_ 50.5___ 39600__ 47____ 18612 -6.9_ 0.0__ AIKK(173)
BPRG 67.25__ 14870__ 62.5__ 9294_ -7.1_ -13.2 TT(137)
PAY_ 255.75_ 1955___ 234.5_ 4584_ -8.3_ -10.0 M(173)
BNH_ 125.25_ 15970__ 114.5_ 18286 -8.6_ 2.7__ AIRR(173)
MDW_ 9.09___ 247500_ 8.25__ 20419 -9.2_ -9.6_ JSVV(137)
PDX_ 231____ 2165___ 208.5_ 4514_ -9.7_ 11.2_ A(177)
CASH 142.25_ 3515___ 127.5_ 4482_ -10.4 1.2__ C(173)
ITR_ 7.81___ 110000_ 7.0___ 7700_ -10.4 -1.8_ HH
FTO_ 8.69___ 57500__ 7.5___ 4313_ -13.7 -4.8_ Y(173)
SLV_ 11.625_ 40450__ 10____ 4045_ -14.0 0.0__ D
IDOX 11.75__ 42500__ 9.75__ 4144_ -17.0 -14.3 V(173)
PMD_ 0.875__ 571400_ 0.725_ 4143_ -17.1 -12.1 Y(173)
KYS_ 15.875_ 63000__ 13____ 8190_ -18.1 -10.3 UU(173)
NML_ 5.31___ 85750__ 4.150_ 3559_ -21.8 -24.5 W
DES_ 62.25__ 8030___ 48____ 3854_ -22.9 -6.3_ H(177)
XEN_ 7.44___ 67200__ 5.5___ 3696_ -26.1 -2.2_ V(173)
GMC_ 19.125_ 52700__ 14.1__ 7444_ -26.1 -2.6_ TW
TAD_ 9.375__ 53300__ 6.75__ 3598_ -28.0 1.9__ Y(177)
ASC_ 78.5___ 25480__ 53.5__ 13632 -31.8 -7.0_ ZZZZ(177)
totals__________________ 501806.9 14.0_ -3.5
small-cap___ 2891.87______ 2925.3 1.2__ -1.8

With no major risers during the period, pride of place goes to SEO. The ASDA deal promises more to come: I have attemtped a projection on the bb which suggests that 1 is attainable within the year.

HCEG and BGT have come back, probably just profit-taking. Evil Knievel is shorting NLR; his logic appears to be that it is really a commodity share and will invite competition. If that's the case, presumably that is what banks like HSBC are - there's nothing like establishing market leadership in any market. At the top of the table, CFP and AGL are edging ahead and appear to have significant potential.

In some cases the spread has widened significantly ahead of the holidays; if over 20% I have taken the last trade quoted spread. The spread in PMD has widened to 68.75% with an apology of a bid which I have ignored. Looking more closely, the company is under threat from Barclays Bank so caution is needed.

ASC continues to be shorted by Evil and his gremlins; they could be put to flight by better trading news in April. However, the new warehouse won't be on line until May so it may be another quarter before it gets motoring again. However, ASC would be third favourite in my book for an investment made now, maturing at the end of the year, after SEO and CFP.

B 89.6 P 9.8 Y -3.1
S 78.8 D 7.7 R -4.0
U 39.9 K 7.6 T -6.8
W 39.4 E 5.9 H -13.8
M 29.2 G 5.2 V -15.4
O 22.1 L 4.3 Z -31.8
J 19.6 A 0.4
C 15.6 I -2.4

The double holders in SEO fill the first three places: bosley, seb and markus with the single holder, yours truly, in fourth. The other leading contenders have all fallen back with NLR, HCEG and BGT. Is it all over? Not until the final putt is holed!

Eric

need i say it?????

Next time Bos we'll all follow you---champion!

moneyplus: flattery gets you a long way, so they say. He may be a champion guy but he is not yet champion in this epic battle. Your a dark filly yourself (I recall you rather liked that description!) - I hope you are surmounting life's hurdles with alacrity!

Eric

I wonder if anyone else entered the investaquest competition that I drew attention to in an early post. Just caught up with it and surprised at my portfolio which would have been quite different if I was starting now! You can change holdings at any time but I have caught one or two colds. Slightly positive overall but lagging behind the 'bos of investaquest' - still SEO and CFP are doing me proud!

Eric

Could I sell my 5K of HCEG and buy 5K of CTT please.

Sorry optomistic but we had the last chance for switching on 25th Feb - to save me work to be honest.

Interested to see you taking profits in HCEG which has been one of the best performers; do you see the recent growth as primarily market hype in Ebiox? You clearly see scope for recovery in CTT although the charts look a bit dire. I see there is a bb without posts!

Eric

That's OK then Eric stick with what I've got then.
Yes Eric not much interest on here for CTT, the charts could rapidly change from here I think. My belief is that the fall out from the new accounting standards has been over done. As for HCEG it could take a longer than we all thought for Ebiox to be taken up with the health authorities, they seem reluctant to change from the alcohol based product they use at present.
Not unlikely I think that they have large stocks bought in at discount price and cannot see their way clear to dumping them in favour of buying another product however efficient it is in killing the MRSA bug.

opto: There appear to be a number of stocks progressing more slowly than hoped because of the difficulty in selling to the NHS, including MDW and MLS as well as HCEG. In hospital recently, my wife had to give the doctor a wee chat about washing of hands! As I recall, much of HCEG revenue is in US and they may get the major growth there in the short-term. Will have a look at CTT.

Eric, I listened to the webcast of the results on the CTT website, very interesting, informative and well presented and I liked the sound of what was in it.

ASOS CHALLENGE PORTFOLIO

The theme of the week has been a general drift. No upward mover by as much as 10%. Overall portfolio down 3.1% against the small cap index of 0.4%. Quite likely implies that more profit-taking at the year end amongst these holdings.

epic cost___ shares_ price_ value gain% week
SEO_ 7.19___ 456900_ 16.5__ 75389 129.5 -9.0 BBSSUUW(137)
HCEG 63_____ 7935___ 106.5_ 8451_ 69.0_ 3.6 O(151)
NLR_ 394.5__ 5080___ 636.5_ 32334 61.3_ 6.1 CDMM(137)
CFP_ 0.28___ 3570000 0.4___ 14280 42.9_ -2.4 WY(137)
AGL_ 128.25_ 3900___ 164.0_ 6396_ 27.9_ -4.4 B(137)
TRT_ 87_____ 5750___ 108.5_ 6239_ 24.7_ -3.6 K(151)
BGT_ 130.5__ 7660___ 157.5_ 12065 20.7_ -11.3 JJ(137)
DGM_ 18.19__ 110000_ 21.5__ 23650 18.2_ -1.7 BEMS(137)
DFD_ 136____ 3675___ 160.0_ 5880_ 17.6_ -7.2 A(151)
CRDA 327.375 1525___ 377.75 5761_ 15.4_ 3.4 P(151)
KCOM 62_____ 16100__ 71.5__ 11512 15.3_ -0.2 OO(151)
RSG_ 466.25_ 1070___ 537.5_ 5751_ 15.3_ 0.9 P(151)
BGC_ 84.8___ 5900___ 97.5__ 5753_ 15.0_ 0.0 K(137)
BAG_ 811____ 615____ 923.5_ 5680_ 13.9_ -2.0 P(151)
PCI_ 10.625_ 47000__ 12.0__ 5640_ 12.9_ -10.3 T(151)
CEY_ 12.625_ 39600__ 14.25_ 5643_ 12.9_ 9.6 I(137)
MOB_ 230.75_ 2165___ 260.0_ 5629_ 12.7_ -4.2 C(151)
AEN_ 697.5__ 717____ 785.0_ 5628_ 12.5_ -2.8 J
WNN_ 268.5__ 1790___ 301.5_ 5397_ 12.3_ 4.9 C
IDS_ 212.5__ 4700___ 237.5_ 11163 11.8_ -1.9 GH(151)
GHH_ 191.5__ 2610___ 197.5_ 5155_ 3.1__ 3.7 G(151)
CIU_ 162.25_ 3080___ 166.5_ 5128_ 2.6__ -0.6 G(173)
TND_ 22.5___ 111000_ 22.75_ 25253 1.1__ -3.2 LLLLR(173)
ACE_ 258.25_ 1935___ 256.5_ 4963_ -0.7_ -5.0 G(151)
BPG_ 667.625 1500___ 660.0_ 9900_ -1.1_ 1.0 DP(151)
PAY_ 255.75_ 1955___ 252.5_ 4936_ -1.3_ 7.7 M(173)
GWP_ 120.25_ 8315___ 116.5_ 9687_ -3.1_ -4.9 EE(151)
EPD_ 51_____ 9805___ 48.5__ 4755_ -4.9_ -7.6 I(173)
AUG_ 256.25_ 3900___ 242.5_ 9458_ -5.4_ -4.9 DE(173)
THUS 15.19__ 32900__ 14.25_ 4688_ -6.2_ -0.9 O(151)
BNH_ 125.25_ 15970__ 113.5_ 18126 -9.4_ -0.9 AIRR(173)
CASH 142.25_ 3515___ 128.5_ 4517_ -9.7_ 0.8 C(173)
IDOX 11.75__ 42500__ 10.5__ 4463_ -10.6 7.7 V(173)
SPS_ 50.5___ 39600__ 45.0__ 17820 -10.9 -4.3 AIKK(173)
PDX_ 231____ 2165___ 203.5_ 4406_ -11.9 -2.4 A(177)
MDW_ 9.09___ 247500_ 8.0___ 19800 -12.0 -3.0 JSVV(137)
ITR_ 7.81___ 110000_ 6.75__ 7425_ -13.6 -3.6 HH
SLV_ 11.625_ 40450__ 10.0__ 4045_ -14.0 0.0 D
BPRG 67.25__ 14870__ 57.5__ 8550_ -14.5 -8.0 TT(137)
PET_ 53.75__ 9300___ 45.5__ 4232_ -15.3 -12.5 R(177)
FTO_ 8.69___ 57500__ 7.0___ 4025_ -19.4 -6.7 Y(173)
GMC_ 19.125_ 52700__ 15.25_ 8037_ -20.3 8.0 TW
KYS_ 15.875_ 63000__ 12.5__ 7875_ -21.3 -3.8 UU(173)
DES_ 62.25__ 8030___ 46.5__ 3734_ -25.3 -3.1 H(177)
TAD_ 9.375__ 53300__ 7.0___ 3731_ -25.3 3.7 Y(177)
PMD_ 0.875__ 571400_ 0.65__ 3714_ -25.7 -10.3 Y(173)
NML_ 5.31___ 85750__ 3.625_ 3108_ -31.7 -12.7 W
ASC_ 78.5___ 25480__ 52.5__ 13377 -33.1 -1.9 ZZZZ(177)
XEN_ 7.44___ 67200__ 4.875_ 3276_ -34.5 -11.4 V(173)

totals__________________ 486421.2 10.6_ 82.0
small-cap_ 2891.87_ 2913.5_______ 0.7__ -0.4

SEO has eased with a somewhat surprising effort by Evil Knievil to short it today; has given a buy opportunity. I stuck my neck out and predicted a break-out north during April with a rise to 28p. Worth having a look at the posts and making up your own mind - Uncle Eric says so! NLR and HCEG have recovered some poise, perhaps also momentum.

CEY, GMC, PAY and IDOX have moved up between 7.7 and 9%. Probably worth checking out; any such move in this sluggish market probably means something. GMC could be ready for a significant move as the gaming market seems to switch attention between shares and a lot is afoot within the company.

XEN has rescued ASC from last space which is pretty awful! Other fallers over 10% are BGT, NML, PET and PMD. BGT has been one of the stars so it is likely to be profit-taking (Jules?). NML has got bogged down in the Angolan rainy season and appears surprised; probably having to raise funds; however should be into production June with profit forecasts. EPD likely to beat NML to the draw; those attracted to diamonds could buy EPD, make money, switch to NML, make money and buy their favourite lady diamond(s) with the proceeds. Not sure that either company offer deals to shareholders!

B 80.4 J 10.5 Y -6.9
S 66.3 D 9.0_ R -8.2
M 35.1 K 4.5_ T -12.6
W 32.3 G 4.1_ H -16.3
U 29.4 E 1.6_ V -17.3
O 23.3 L 1.0_ Z -33.1
C 18.1 I -3.1
P 10.7 A -3.7

That cock o' the north, bos, has increased his lead over seb; basically AGL is beating DGM, the only difference in their holdings. Well done, moneyplus, back into third with NLR and PAY being amongst the performers of the week. Yours truly nips ahead of markus, fuelled by his gambling instincts with GMC. capa rivals mp for performer of the week helped by NLR and WNN.

I suspect there are some dramatic moves coming up with a lot of quarterly trading statements coming up. Many of these companies are emerging into the daylight and the rewards for achieving positive cashflow can be great. Anything to rival SEO? My own hunch remains with CFP - have a look at the bb. You can buy a million shares for 4K; 100K in a couple of years? Stop the ramping, Eric: mind, nothing to stop others doing the same! Anyone like to do a book on the winner of this exercise? I would have a few quid on W with an eachway bet on that attractive filly, mp, with all but one knee fully restored to action!

Eric

Tally HO Eric! All to play for next week--PAY shows encouraging signs of life.
Same with me--down to one crutch and more nimble every day. Can't say I'm eager to go for the other knee now I know what is involved. Hope the puppy is settling in well. Very encouraging on CFP I'm now up to 350000 shares and intend adding with spare bits of cash. have a good weekend all-MP

still there, eh!!!!!!

Moneyplus, being now bereft of all cash on CFP plus me shirt and pants, I would advise you to buy, but me socks are in TAD, which I see doublin` in the next 6 weeks. If both these fail, I`m becoming a nudist and will have to move to Germany or Sweden !

I will check out TAD-thanks Snakey. What a picture! Should bring some merry comments from Eric!

Sorry about that, mp, been spending too much time on the golf course! Not taking up snakey's suggestion? re CFP, that is, not the nudism bit! Now Uncle Eric said 1 million shares in CFP: only 4K or so or another 2.6K to go. At 10p they will be worth 100K - promise! I think, though, that THE share this week will be NML - worth having an odd K or two on it with the promise of diamonds to come!

What are we going to do about bos! Every week he comes on with the same sort of insufferable comments. I know, we'll give him a handicap: not a blow on the knees although he is Sicilian, but we will charge him 1000 per week for the 20K we lent him. Is that approved by everyone but bos? Going, going ........

Eric

hey! steady on !!!!

Sorry folk! Did the update Friday evening but seem to have lost it! Think I'll blame the Masters. I was even nice to bos so I don't think he squelched it, particularly as he's nearly 100% up, leading seb by some 10% with yours truly just over 50% up in third place, benefitting from NML the share of the week and worth a look. I you are not in SEO, look at the thread as it could be pushing ahead to 30p over the next few weeks, i.e. another 50% with more to come. Can't stand the thought of redoing it so will combine two weeks next Friday.

Eric MC (mea culpa!)