wilco99
- 12 Sep 2003 15:52
ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!
robinhood
- 24 Apr 2008 16:55
- 2072 of 5941
mummy will look after favorite son and daddy will look after favorite daughter
halifax
- 24 Apr 2008 18:15
- 2073 of 5941
Carry on believing that and you will find out what happened to the ostrich!
EWRobson
- 24 Apr 2008 20:04
- 2074 of 5941
Good debate. The main reason for ASC's strength and source of confidence in its continuation is the rate of switching to internet purchasing, particularly amongst young ladies fashion. NEXT are the only real competitor but are hidebound by the impact on their own retail chain. So even if the overall market is stagnant, a significant growth applies to ASC's own market. Add to that their extension of the market into other age groups, including men, and the potential in Europe and the US and you can see no real reason why the exponential rise should not continue. This should carry on until a slowdown is seen on the horizon.
Have increased my stake today, putting my s where my mouth is! (no not there!)
Eric
stockdog
- 24 Apr 2008 20:23
- 2075 of 5941
Their turnover is less than Oxford Circus Topshop - 1 branch!!! Don't tell me they are running out of capacity to grow turnover when they continue to take greater share of a generally rapidly increasing market. They have warehouse/delivery capacity for a good deal of growth.
The affects of the credit squeeze and ensuing bear market will, in 2-3 years time, look like a blip in ASC's growth story.
5 by end of 2010 = 21% growth compound pa from end of April, and I bet they get there sooner. It will be a 10-bagger for me since I joined the party later than many at the end of 2004 - a 46% pa compound growth return, plus dividends likely to come in the next year or so, plus further purchases since to make it my largest holding - although by no means my largest investment. That will fulfill my pension plans very nicely thank you with tried and tested management who repeatedly deliver into a rapidly expanding market and life style shift of the entire populace worldwide.
Today and tomorrow is a triple witching hour of a) all time high, b) psychological 300p level and c) the buy on rumour, sell on fact brigade prior to update on Monday.
Anyone who enquires whether a credit card transaction company can have bad debts must be a wind-up merchant. It will be a while before we see your shorts available to buy on ASOS!
Me bullish - why do you ask?
WOODIE
- 24 Apr 2008 21:28
- 2076 of 5941
UK-Analyst.com this p.m.
Daniel Stewart has a 'buy' rating and a 350p price target for online fashion retailer ASOS (ASC) ahead of the group's full-year trading update due on Monday. The broker said it was encouraged by market share data from Hitwise, showing ASOS closing in on number one online clothing retailer Next Directory and moving away from third-placed Topshop. It also cited the group's strong Christmas trading and positive news from other retailers in relation to their online businesses. ASOS shares slipped 4p to 292.75p.
WOODIE
- 27 Apr 2008 14:00
- 2077 of 5941
Sales at internet fashion retailer Asos have rocketed this year, bucking the downward trend in the clothing market, the company is expected to reveal tomorrow - Mail on Sunday
WOODIE
- 28 Apr 2008 07:04
- 2078 of 5941
ASOS PLC
28 April 2008
Pre-Close Trading Update
ASOS plc
FOR RELEASE
7.00 am
Monday 28 April 2008
ASOS plc
A leading Internet based fashion retailer
Pre close trading update for the year ended 31 March 2008
* ASOS.com sales for the 12 months to 31 March 2008 up 90% to
approximately 81m
* Profit before tax expected to be slightly ahead of market expectations
* Sales for the 4 weeks to 27 April 2008 up 80% year on year
Nick Robertson, Chief Executive, made the following comments.
I am delighted to report sales of approximately 81m for the year ended 31 March
2008, a 90% increase on the previous year. Consequently, we expect our profit
before tax to be significantly ahead of market expectations, before accounting
for a one off charge of approximately 1.1m relating to the closure of our old
warehouse. After this charge, we expect our profit before tax to be slightly
ahead of analysts' forecasts.
Our gross margin performance will be in line with previous guidance.
I can also confirm that the new financial year has started positively with sales
for the four weeks to 27 April up approximately 80% year on year.
Despite the uncertain economic conditions, I remain optimistic about the
prospects for ASOS. We continue to benefit from the increasing popularity of
online shopping and we have made considerable investments in management,
infrastructure, product ranges and marketing to support and sustain future
growth.
Preliminary Results
ASOS will announce its preliminary results for the year ended 31 March 2008 on
Monday 30 June when it will provide a full overview and update on the business.
EWRobson
- 28 Apr 2008 12:32
- 2079 of 5941
On the ball, Woodie. I see you posted at 7.04 this morning! Interesting market comment. MoneyAM quotes Robertson as saying that the effect of the down-turn may be that the pbt growth is only 70% - 80% rather than the historical 90%! Seymour Pearce predict 2009 pbt as 16m and eps 14.8p. Very cautious as only 50% p.a. growth. 75% would give pbt of 20.5m and eps of around 11. Given that growth, eps would be not less than 22 and therefore share price 600p. We should all follow that wise old dog, sd, and tuck them away snugly in their basket.
Eric
mitzy
- 28 Apr 2008 16:16
- 2080 of 5941
Wow 600p thats even better cheers EW.
EWRobson
- 28 Apr 2008 16:55
- 2081 of 5941
I can improve on that if you like :o(
stockdog
- 28 Apr 2008 19:30
- 2082 of 5941
Pretty good news today - although I guess we were all expecting it, nice to have it confirmed.
If T/over for 2009 stays at 80% increase over 2008 and this is reflected pro rata in the eps (with no warehouse write offs) compared to current broker estimates, then by post-Xmas update in Jan 2009, a PE of 25 would suggest an SP of 360p as a basic case by then - only another 50p to go after today's sustained 10p rise on above average volume.
We're now in AIM 100 which allows/forces a new set of investors to buy in. Anyone guess when NR will grant the first dividend - I guess in the 2009 Prelims report. That will give another boost as yet more instis and serious investors will take note of a cash positive, rapidly growing dividend payer.
This has risen from my 12th largest to my largest holding at 16% solely by virtue of the SP increase - not minded to sell any just yet either, even thought well over weight.
WOODIE
- 29 Apr 2008 07:25
- 2083 of 5941
not quite on the ball this morning eric.newspapers are mixed this morning d.telegraph only one saying sell that i can find.
SEADOG
- 29 Apr 2008 08:21
- 2084 of 5941
Eric and sd,
I'm still in with you and delighted you are thinking that the rise will continue. I watch your posts very carefully and keep in the background. Cheers to all SD
robinhood
- 29 Apr 2008 08:38
- 2085 of 5941
woodie- as questor admits "we have a terrible track record on ASOS as we have consistently sold the shares as they have soared from a penny onwards"
stockdog
- 29 Apr 2008 09:09
- 2086 of 5941
I see Questor in the D Tel says sell - yet again.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?view=DETAILS&grid=&xml=/money/2008/04/29/cxquest129.xml
However, from the Times- (sorry do not have link)
Asos
Consumer slowdown? What consumer slowdown? ASOS, the online fashion retailer, once again demonstrated the extent to which it is isolated from the travails of its high street clothing rivals with a year-end trading update that sent its shares to a new high. Profits will be ahead of forecasts, while sales in April are up 80 per cent on last year a considerable feat, given comparative growth of 102 per cent this time last year.
About 180,000 people shop at the ASOS store every day, the same amount that visit Bluewater, the huge Kent shopping centre, and more brands are being added: Kookai joined last week. New technology will enable customers to get as close as they can to the physical experience of browsing. As well as videos showing models wearing the clothes, customers will soon be able to use 3D imagery to see how certain sunglasses suit their face.
ASOS is still relatively small. Annual sales are still only 80 million against 3.3 billion for Next and pre-tax profits for the year to March 31 will be 7 million. However, the challenge remains reining in investor expectations. Seymour Pierce, the house broker, expects sales growth of 60 per cent this year. A maiden dividend could come in 2009.
At 310p, around double the value six months ago, the shares trade at 25 times next years earnings. That may seem pricey, but not once the pace of earnings growth, high operational gearing and strong position within its niche are factored in. Hold on.
It's got to be a hold till upper 300's. If you're getting nervous about losing the wonderful profits you've made so far (and why not be cautious), set yourself an internal stop loss if the SP falls, say, 15% from its EOD peak. But you would have been stopped out in late March at about 250p and missed the next 3 years' continuing story. Also, do watch carefully for the underlying story changing - words like "challenging" being uttered by NR in an update, falling gross margin etc.
WOODIE
- 29 Apr 2008 09:51
- 2087 of 5941
robin that to me is a good buy if questor says sell.
ASOS
310p +11p
Questor says Sell
Internet retailer ASOS continues to defy the high street downturn. High street retailers may be struggling - Topshop owner Sir Philip Green describes trading as "horrid" - but online sales at ASOS continue to soar.
Unlike other retailers - which have seen their stock market valuations plummet in recent months amid growing fears about consumer confidence - ASOS shares have soared. Yesterday they closed up 11p at 310p on the back of a positive trading update for the financial year.
Sales soared 90pc to approximately 81m and the company now expects pre-tax profits to be "slightly ahead of expectations".
Nick Robertson, the chief executive who has built ASOS into a 200m-plus business, is confident that he can defy the downturn and remains "optimistic about prospects".
You can't knock Mr Robertson's confidence: he has kept ASOS on track through the dotcom crash and the Buncefield refinery explosion, which destroyed the retailer's warehouse.
But like many retailers of his generation. he has no experience of managing a business through a serious downturn. He also faces the challenge of once again expanding ASOS's infrastructure to service the increasing sales.
Questor has a poor track record when it comes to ASOS - we have consistently sold the shares over the past few years as they have soared from little more than a penny stock.
But on a rating of 27 times, the shares look very expensive - even given the group's phenomenal sales growth and its younger customer base that is less affected by the credit crisis than others. Sell
robinhood
- 29 Apr 2008 09:59
- 2088 of 5941
Also when i first started to invest in stocks many moons ago i tended to follow questor recommendations- of which 70% turned out to be dogs. These days i sometimes put his recommendations on a watchlist which again is now resembling a kennel......full of dogs
EWRobson
- 29 Apr 2008 17:19
- 2089 of 5941
I wonder what happened to Wilco? Strong buy at 5.5p indeed (nearly five years ago!) Somewhat over 50-bagger. I just missed the first 5!
halifax
- 29 Apr 2008 17:33
- 2090 of 5941
Woodie you must admit Questor got it right today for once!
WOODIE
- 29 Apr 2008 17:52
- 2091 of 5941
eric lets hope wilco is still in.
halifax yes he got it right today good call?,just out of interest before sept last year james quinn ex shares mag was questor so i have been told not sure if this is correct.