how do you see the dow index going today Dow Jones and S&P commentary: Signal Watch Dr Bob Hard Right Edge Raptor Research Charting by Snoball: Dow Chart S&P Chart Drinks & Break Time at: GD's Famous Tea Room & Watering Hole"

DOW JONES @ LIVECHARTS

snoball

i think i'll give IG a go - all but ready to go with them now. i understand the spread can be big but haven't heard anything v.adverse....no harm opening fins too.

what sort of seminar are you going to - is it one of their free 'learner' days?

t.

terod, yes.
Hopefully I will pick up some useful trading tips.

after september 11th 2001 was the last time we had 1000 points up on the ftse,we are just about there now since the low in march,it's any1's guess when we get a retrace but retrace we will.the 10,000 dow will be a major barrier to get past,no matter what any1 says.

Hijeff:
I am inclined to agree with u there.Everyone keeps on saying (marketmakers) that by xmas they can see the dow at 10000+.Maybe we will -but I think we have to kiss a lot of frogs before we get there.Frankly the Us economy is in dire straits ( not to mention ours),The Iraq oil questions,Israel Paestine and syria etc adinfinitum.......

I reckon there is going to be some serious profit taking and the bulls are going to be subdued by the matadors and the bears are getting ready for winter.
And we are like the mariners at sea we have to follow any benign wind and keep away fr4om the sharks and dont hit any reefs we dont need to ground our ships must follow the tide and not the herd.

have agood weekend

Terod:
Welldone on opening a/cs: and will be glad to have u on fleet as u have command of your own ship and worlds to discover.(Also by the way before u sail off solo u can still go along on the cruise with us)

Snoball:
Enjoy your edu at fins seminar and enlighten us with new wisdom that u gain.
To gain more knowledge u must dissipate that u have otherwise the brain cant make room for more.

Goodnight to all
zarif

Good afternoon everyone:
JUST BEEN BROWSING AND THIS IS WHAT I CAME ACROSS ON MONEY AM FRONT PAGE. I Have taken the liberty to copy it over here for all to read.As they say everyone to their own -We do Fundamentals,Ta,Trends,Chinese Numbers, Ini Mini Mini Mo..,The ebb and flow of tides -So why not the astrologers view!!!!!!


'Market astrolger' sees repeat of '87 crash
AFX
Memo to Taurus: Good luck doesn't run forever. Try to get out while you can. Don't make plans for Tuesday.

A tricky planetary set-up -- along with political and economic events and an ongoing slump in the U.S. dollar -- could put an end to the stock market's recent heavenly performance as early as next week, according to one prognosticator who tracks the stars along with stocks.

On Friday, self-proclaimed market astrologer Henry Weingarten warned that Mercury will be at a 90-degree angle to Saturn during a key earnings week. That means investors' recent bullish thinking 'will be challenged by realities,' including the dollar's weakness against the euro, a bond auction and a 'possible war event,' the New York-based forecaster said.

Coupled with a rising full moon that heightens emotions, the Dow Jones Industrial Average could lose 300 or more points by the end of trading Tuesday -- and possibly even a repeat of the crash of October 1987, according to the forecaster.

There 'are certain times astrologically when you must act,' he said. 'If you are aggressive on the long side, you must reverse that between now and Tuesday.'

All in the correlation

Weingarten says his specialty is 'correlating planetary events with market activity,' an approach that has a small following but also plenty of detractors.

In a September 2002 'Stockpickers' feature on CBS MarketWatch, he tagged three equities as near-term outperformers: IBM, Tyco International and penny stock International Hi-Tech Industries.

At the time, IBM was trading at $73 and change, Tyco was $15.15 and International Hi-Tech was 24 cents.

By Friday's close, IBM was up 22 cents to $92.67 while Tyco tacked on over 1 percent to $22.05, after touching a 52-week high of $22.05 earlier. International Hi-Tech gained almost 8 percent to 28 cents.

'Out of whack'

'The fundamentals are out of whack,' Weingarten continued, notably the price-to-earnings ratios of two companies that reported third-quarter profits this week: Alcoa and Yahoo . In addition, 'there is no job growth, the country is overspending...and we have the same margin levels we had in March of 2000.'

While the market risk is greatest until early Wednesday, the longer-term view is hardly encouraging, by Weingarten's reckoning.

He noted that Saturn will be in Cancer for the next few years. This could hit the strongest remaining pillar of the economy since the Crab is both the birth sign of the country and rules housing.

To back that up, he said that when Saturn was in Gemini -- the astrological sign that rules communications -- 'look what happened to the telecoms.'

Whenever Mercury is squared with Saturn, which happens several times a year, 'it is a yellow-alert day but when it is backed-up by other things happening, it makes it that much more volatile. There have to be both celestial and terrestrial events [at the same time] for a crash.'

Well everybody what do u think ??
Who sent the guys with the "white Suits" at my Door and "flashing Blue Lights"
Oh no The Straight Jacket Broigade is here......

Rgds
zarif

zarif

more's the point.....what do YOU think? it's like seeing a ladder across the path and, although convinced you're not superstitious you still hesitate before walking under it ! i guess anyone who bothers to read it will probably be cautious whilst at the say time totally disregarding it (if that makes sense).

let's see what the week brings - in any case, the author will claim he has forecast it right.

cheers.

This thread is turning into a little cracker specially the header and me thinks it could become one of the bigger ones on this site :-)

What we need is more people to have a say on it even if it is just to say Hello,may have a dabble on the dow this week aint got a clue which way it could go i think some times it has a mind of its own...

Hope we all make a killing this week:-)

zarif well done for starting the thread but it is the people who post that make the thread :-)

Mega...

Mega:
You are quite right with all your help we seem to be heading in the right direction and confronting the market with our "pooled knowledge"
The analogy about the site is akin to a shop. The shop is open and it is the customers who with their suggestion for goods that that we stock can make it thrive.
The charts are a great help (given by jeffmack and hilary) now all we want ( and hopefully Snoball) can throw in his trend charts ( or anyone else) before next days open etc would put us in a great steed.
Terod:
regarding the astrolger -no matter what it is better to be on the safe side and no matter what happens he will claim he was right.

Regarding trading tomorrow - Monday is a Holiday in the States but the market is open and would envisage slim trading.
I am sharpening "short" daggers as I have this gut feeling that It is really going to be profit taking time and most times October tends to be a "bad" month and shows decreases in the index and november tends to rise.

Have agood weekend
rgds
zarif

Bond holiday tomorrow so could be low volumes - ideal conditions for the "smart money" to have some fun.

Anyone else here trading the Dax? It has been a really good play lately - up and down 3% on a regular basis - filling gaps consistently. A quick analysis of the Dax shows that the print of 3488 and 3524 leaves 3578 the next stop, although the candles were left with a Bearish Harami/Shooting Star image, which leaves the market looking vulnerable risking setbacks to 3434, then 3368, with 3316, down to 3265, then 3202 and 3100 to follow. Momentum strength gives 9 day RSI at 57 and daily stochs positive. I've my eye on the 3559-3602 gap to be filled at some stage soon should things stay bullish.

jojo - Smart money.
I posted a chart on Friday on antoher BB which plotted the SMFI (Smart money Flow Index) on the Dow. It's not making any new highs but what one really wants to look out for is divergence.


Dow 10-10-03


Blue line - SMF Index
Red (dotted)line - DMF Index - (That's D for Dumb) - my own proprietary index calculation
Orange line - 50 dMA

Notice how when the Dumb Money Flow Index makes a new high, the market tends to fall. When the DMFI makes a new low, the market rises.

Jeroo, I saw your post on 'the other BB' and have saved it.
Unfortunately I can't calculate it with my charting software as I only
have end of day data. I'll have to do it manually but can't chart it -
or haven't figured out how yet.

It looks like the DMF tries to find equilibrium with the SMF and takes
the price with it. Very interesting.

jeroo/jojo

please can you give a v.quick lesson on SMART v. DUMB money flow - not come across it before. How does the 'divergance' offer us opportunity?

the chart looks very interesting.

t.

zarif,
I've been experimenting with a short trending system for the Dow.
It is easy to calculate manually and gives a daily level at which the trend will change.

Essentially it consists of two moving averages.
The 2 period simple moving average of the High and the Low for the close of the day.

The trend is Long when the CLOSING price goes above the previous days
High ma and stays long until the trend goes short. The trailing stop is the
low moving average. The intraday price can breach the trailing stop.
The trend is short when the CLOSING price goes below the previous days
Low ma and stays short until the trend goes long. The trailing stop is the high ma.
The intraday price can breach the stop.

Here is the chart showing the system.
Ignore the "pc2" arrows. I'll remove them next time I upload.

The main disadvantage of the system is that it is based on closing prices which means
you can have some hefty price swings against you if you follow this to the letter.

Let me know if this is of use and I will update it daily.

I will email the link to you if you want to put it in the header.

The Smart Money Flow Index has long been one of the best kept secrets of Wall Street. Everybody knows the importance of a closing price and other last hour indicators like the Closing Tick. The Smart Money Flow Index is therefore calculated by taking the action of the Dow in two time periods: the first 30 minutes and the close. The first 30 minutes represent emotional buying, driven by greed and fear of the crowd based on good and bad news There is also a lot of buying on market orders and short covering at the opening. Smart money waits until the end and they very often test the market before by shorting heavily just to see how the market reacts. Then they move in the big way. These heavy hitters also have the best possible information available to them and they do have the edge on all the other market participants.

The Smart Money Flow Index is calculated like the Advance-Decline Line. Just start at any given day, subtract the price of the Dow at 10 AM from the previous day's close and add today's closing price. The result is plotted on a chart, together with the closing price of the Dow only. Whenever the Dow makes a high which is not confirmed by the SMFI there is trouble ahead. It is said that this indicator is suitable only for investors with a longer time horizon but it's worth watching on a daily basis all the same. Such investors should buy blue chips when the indicator gives a buy signal, and sell and sell short on a divergence.

The most intelligent way to approach the markets is to watch what the so called "smart money" and the so called "dumb money" is doing. The dumb money, or the so called "crowd", are getting consistently beaten by the more street smart and very shrewd, professional and experienced traders.

My DMF Index is not an exact reversal of the SMFI but a proprietary index calculation that also contains a volume weighted aspect.

jeroo

thanks for that.

did i read earlier that you had a thread dedicated to S/D MF's ?

I posted similar comments over on a notoriously bearish BB US thread. Even when faced with bullish facts, the posts remain bearish so I thought I'd throw in a little weight to balance things up a bit. It's purely ad hoc posting as I find the comments that "we are done for" pending an '87 style crash somewhat galling - even though I tend towards the bearish outlook. Mind you, an image of a wagging finger with Henry Weingarten on the end of it just popped into my head.

fat finger

Jeroo

Much more sophisticated explanation than I would have given - many thanks.

terod

By smart money I'm simply referring to the institutions and professionals who decide market direction and move it to their maximum advantage. All I try and do is ride on their coat tails!

Afternoon everybody:
Nice to have jeroo and jojo on board with us.
I reckon the market is going to open higher today and am getting ready for some quick stabs at longs.
What are your views and what levels are we likely to reach today and resistance levels .

rgds
zarif