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Dowgate Capital - Capitalising on the booming AIM market (DGT)     

overgrowth - 09 Feb 2005 20:52

Dowgate Capital (DGT) are sitting in the middle of a goldmine!

This company through their sole trading arm City Financial Associates are looking to take full advantage of the "booming" AIM market this year. Dowgate provide NOMAD (NOMinated ADvisor) services to AIM companies and also have full Corporate Broker status which means that they can fund placements on behalf of the companies they represent.

On first sight, the fact that Dowgate exist in the often veiled financial services sector makes you think twice about investing in company such as this because it would be impossible to understand what they were doing - however, think again!

DGT bring new companies to the AIM (Alternative Investment Market). For each new company "floated" on AIM, they take arrangement fees when acting as NOMAD. After the company is launched then for a nice steady earner DGT get another healthy chunk of cash every year for looking after them (note that all AIM companies must have a nominated adviser - thereby securing a ready source of recurring income).

Because DGT also act as a Corporate broker they can get a very healthy percentage for arranging placement of shares with insititutions before a new company floats. In addition, because placements come outside the sphere of yearly NOMAD work, they can also gain healthy percentages of placements which companies may need to make throughout the year when they need a quick injection of cash to speed growth.

Current NOMADships: 28 companies represented (gives recurring income of approx 480,000 per year)

Current on-going Brokerage agreements: 19 companies (income depends on placements)

For flotations, depending on the size of a company, fees charged will be anything from 50,000 to 100,000+ For placements (the real earner), DGT get anything from 3% to around 12% of the TOTAL AMOUNT RAISED - For example a new company raising 3M though a placement will earn DGT anything from 90,000 to 360,000 ! These figures are indicative as actual deals all differ due to circumstances and DGT sometimes take payment in shares - they still have a tasty chunk of Setstone shares and when this Russian exploration company comes back to AIM, predictions are that the share price will rocket. Note that the amount that this little company can earn in fees is huge and every new deal that comes through we know will contribute another healthy chunk into the bottom line. The good news with every new floatation means that it's another chunk of recurring revenue which could go on for years, with DGT having to do very little. New clients gained in 2005 are:

Mediazest (NOMAD & broker) Elite Strategies (NOMAD) Process Handling (NOMAD) Poland Investment Fund (NOMAD) Nanotech Energy (NOMAD & broker) Archimedia Ventures (NOMAD & broker) Red Leopard Holdings (NOMAD) Alba Mineral Resources (NOMAD & broker) Intandem Films (NOMAD & broker) Motive Television (NOMAD) IncaGold (NOMAD) Sportswinbet (NOMAD & Broker) Infoscreen Networks (NOMAD & Broker) Mark Kingsley (NOMAD & Broker) Croatia Ventures (NOMAD & Broker) Pantheon Leisure (NOMAD) Firenze Ventures (Ofex Advisor) FlightStore Group (NOMAD & Broker) Euro Capital Projects (NOMAD) Pearl Street Holdings (NOMAD) Worldwide Natural Resources (Ofex Advisor) Dovedale Ventures (Ofex Advisor) Other 2005 work completed:Neptune-Calculus VCT offer for subs of up to 12 million Advisory work for TGM on London Bus disposal for 20.4M Advisory work for Creightons on property disposal Advisory work for Hampton Trust on company restructuring Advisory work for Interbulk Investments on acquisition of Inbulk Advisory work for Fundamental-e Investments on two disposals Advisory work for Designer Vision re: Design Rights against Centurion Electronics

Click Here for fundamentals and profit projections.
Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=DGT&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=DGT&Si

kimoldfield - 01 Mar 2006 12:55 - 2084 of 2787

Is it because of the sector that they are in? If it's not oil, mining, bio - stuff like that, then it is out of the limelight a bit. Needs more publicity, sharpen your pencil ready for that letter Eric!
kim

stevieweebie - 01 Mar 2006 12:57 - 2085 of 2787

Ditto Eric
I may be taking you up on that come the weekend.
Stevie

sidtrix - 01 Mar 2006 13:57 - 2086 of 2787

Lets see it break out from it's .8 high.... fingers crossed
The results demand it too!

markusantonius - 01 Mar 2006 15:31 - 2087 of 2787

This all makes very positive reading, guys, I agree. But henceforth we need regular statements/updates from TR and co. in order to support the sp and give it some credibilty. I think Eric's 2083-post (above) perfectly outlines the co. and its huge potential in this niche marketplace.

Must confess - I have always been highly sceptical having been in & out (with small profits) since its Abinger/CFA days esp because of the GHW link. But the more I delve into the figures and look at the opportunities, the more I can see this growing exponentially. I don't know of any other share which can boast this upside potential with such a low risk downside.

But yes, we need more media coverage......!

chocolat - 01 Mar 2006 16:18 - 2088 of 2787

Blimey you were up early today Mark ;)

canary9 - 01 Mar 2006 21:32 - 2089 of 2787

Out early today playing golf at Hinckley GC and the results are announced! However, I clearly didn't miss a selling opportunity, and I can't help feeling that these will run up higher once the results are digested, and the growth potential is recognised.

EWRobson - 01 Mar 2006 22:31 - 2090 of 2787

A very significant day in the annals of Dowgate Capital. Destined to be a major player in the market. Quite capable of generating sufficient cash for its expansion. Maybe the odd bit of funding to support an acquisition. Comfortable with competition. A safe home for the company floating on AIM. Loyal to the investors in from the early days - you and me, that is!

Sellers matching buyers today but expect those to diminish as profit takers have run off with their lolly; poor souls, where are they going to put it: a well at Staplehurst Farm? More buyers will be attraacted and the price will rise. So be it! What will be will be. Loyalty will pay off handsomely.
Eric

sjtee - 01 Mar 2006 22:38 - 2091 of 2787

This is the write up in tonights UK Analyst Stock market report.

"A stunning set of numbers from Dowgate sent its shares soaring 0.14p to 0.75p. The company, which owns the broker and NOMAD City Financial Associates, reported a 74% rise in full-year sales to 2.31 million pounds, as pre-tax profits came in at 587,000 pounds. This was a great turnaround from the previous year's 366,000-pound loss. With cash of 1.2 million pounds and no debt, investors rallied to Dowgate's cause, speculating that the smaller-company adviser could replicate the success of established broker, Daniel Stewart. Whilst no dividend was paid, the company said it would consider making payments later on in the year. Whilst the numbers did benefit from a 179,000 pounds profit on the back of the sale of investments, the results represented a stunning performance. At the close, the stock was trading on an historic price/earning multiple of just 7.7 times."

EWRobson - 01 Mar 2006 22:42 - 2092 of 2787

Nice one, sjtee. That should bring them in tomorrow. Ready for take off?
Eric

markusantonius - 01 Mar 2006 23:33 - 2093 of 2787

Mmmmhh, interesting..... a write-up so soon after results - another one to follow should get the snowball rolling as the word starts to spread.....
BTW I can get up early, Cheeky Chox, when I have to/want to, you know. Anyway - get back to Forex, young lady! :o)
Canary9 - where's your cheque re: Golf entry, Rod? !!!!

Paulo2 - 02 Mar 2006 06:37 - 2094 of 2787

Spoke to the City desks at the Mail and the Express yesterday but the fools obviously weren't interested in our little baby.

Paulo2 - 02 Mar 2006 07:34 - 2095 of 2787

Having said which I didn't get through to them until 4.30pm, so perhaps they'll be loading up on them today before doing a double-page spread for the weekend.

LOL

canary9 - 02 Mar 2006 08:02 - 2096 of 2787

Mark, cheque has been posted.......................Rod

Global Nomad - 02 Mar 2006 08:35 - 2097 of 2787

A general thankyou to all who post here for making this such a quality board and making the decisions to invest in Dowgate easier. As usual wish I had more to invest...

well done

congratulations and long may you all prosper.....

GN

sidtrix - 02 Mar 2006 09:03 - 2098 of 2787

lol Champagne was out last night, can see this one as a 10x in 2-3 years time.... roll on DGT

m0dulus - 02 Mar 2006 09:14 - 2099 of 2787

Lets hope it reaches those heights..

stockdog - 02 Mar 2006 09:21 - 2100 of 2787

Looking at the figures more closely early this morning, here are some thoughts:-

1) At 0.75p X 680,234,146 (fully diluted) shares gives a market cap of 5,101,756, less cash balances of 1,235,000 and investments of 57,000, leaves an enterprise value of 3,809,756 or 0.56 per share.

2) Excluding profit on disposal of investments of 179,000 and interest of 20,000, leaves a basic trading profit of 388,000 or 0.057p per share.

3) So there is an "enterprise PE" of 9.82. If this should be nearer 12.5, the enterprise value would be 0.71p per share. Add back the cash and investments makes 0.90p per share a more realistic value currently - surely over 1.0p on 1 year prospective.

4) the 388,000 (I estimated 332,000) trading profit plus 20,000 (I estimated 21,000) interest is much closer to my estimated 353,000 total than at first glance. The profit of 179,000 on disposal of investments was totally unpredictable. So I am heartened that my model is not so far out.

5) Retainers plus transactions totaled 2,100,000, leaving presumably 210,000 of rechargeable costs to make up total turnover of 2,310,000. Overheads incl. basic salaries of 1,067,000 plus rechargeables (at cost) of 210,000, leaves 645,000 in bonuses to make up the total expensese of 1,922,000. Bonuses are 62% of trading profit!!! But apparently in line with market rates oh dear I'm in the wrong job again!

6) For 2005's retainer income, with 21 "whole year clients" and 20 quarterly spread clients (assume evenly - 5, 3.75, 2.5, 1.25 fees per each successive quarter of 2005) we get 33.5 whole year equivalent retainer client retainers at an average of 15.4k ea. makes the 516k total retainer income.

7) So 2006 starts with 41 whole year clients at 15.4k = 631,400. Allow 2 per month added during 2006 (24 compared to 20 for 2005) at a higher average of 17,500 p.a. (actual for 2006 to date averages 18,125 over 8 new clients) makes a further 262,500 - 893,900 total. Allowing transactions fees of 50,000 (2005 51,000) per whole year client makes 2,650,000 for a total income of 3,543,900 - 69% up on 2005.

7) Overheads incl. basic salaries, adding 2 more execs at 100k ea. since beginning of year, increased by 5% inflation, makes say 1,330,000 leaves a trading profit of 2,213,900. Deduct 62% for bonuses, add say 50,000 interest, leaves a net profit of 891,282 (still no tax to pay because of brought forward losses) an increase of 52% on 2005.

8) This line edited: EPS 2006 is thus 0.13p for a forward PE of 5.72 and a PEG of 0.11 - make the PE 12.5 and you get a projected SP of 1.63p and PEG of 0.24 - still pretty respectable.

I'll leave it up to you all as to how believable these figures are. I would particularly welcome suggestions how to gauge transaction income - my method is rational but looks a little high I have to admit.

SP up another 5% so far today at 0.79p - happy days!

sd

EWRobson - 02 Mar 2006 09:47 - 2101 of 2787

Read a nice book to my grandson called 'my dog can say 100 words': of course, he wakes up and says he'll teach him next year. Well, your financial vocabulary looks first class. I like the results too: they may even be a dream coming true. The news is filtering out, it seems according to the buying volume today. You would expect larger clients to be gradually hauled in and therefore the average transaction value to increase. The outcome stands up against trends. My other positive point is that the overall market is growing, so that you could see several years of organic growth; I would have thought they could grow the fund-raising side without an acquisition as they are clearly attractive to staff (particularly with those bonuses). Thus there is an argument for the pe being higher and you could set a target sp of 2p in a year's time.

Eric

corehard - 02 Mar 2006 09:55 - 2102 of 2787

Consistent buys since 9am.....

EWRobson - 02 Mar 2006 12:47 - 2103 of 2787

sd Just been going through your numbers, a real pedigree job! 2006 will almost certainly see an increase in overhead to cover business development or, rather, cost at corporate level. I suspect they will leave CFA to do the advisory work and use a separate entity for broker oriented raising of funds. Nevertheless that is investment in the future and should justify a higher pe. From the report and bearing in mind RIL this development has to happen.

I think the announcement was one new fee-earner or is there a second person on the web-site. They will certainly need the extra resource. 50% increase of earners ties in with 50% increase in sales. Your average transaction value is cautious as you would expect the average to rise as they increase in credibility.

I'll wait to see whether Shares give a good write-up before writing (PTH is away). It may get on their radar this time. If not, I will want to know why!

Keep up the good work; sorry, play for a hound.

Eric
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