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Retail Decisions - The only decision you need to make is when to buy! (RTD)     

overgrowth - 13 May 2005 16:36

Retail Decisions are market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally, though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers both in the UK and US. They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this "forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout 2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of millions of shares in RTD !

Shares Magazine had a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution". It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.

Here's what Shares had to say: "Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions. Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime. Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already has fantastic experience and technology. The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer, T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner of Macy's and Bloomingdales. Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."

Retail Decisions have continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz. fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through. In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company is doing. The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=RTD&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RTD&Si

m0dulus - 06 Jul 2005 10:09 - 209 of 1009

og

DNX - whats your target on this?

m0dulus - 06 Jul 2005 10:09 - 210 of 1009

What about short term/long term on MDW

Fundamentalist - 06 Jul 2005 10:13 - 211 of 1009

Modulus

I have held DNX for a long while now and have no target as such - it is a long term holding that i will only sell if the fundamentals change adversely (but expect it to be at least 10 in a year or twos time) - have a look at the thread as i posted a lot of info recently ( ihave brought it to the top)

overgrowth - 06 Jul 2005 10:27 - 212 of 1009

m0dulus - Fundy could well be right about DNX - oil price is the key, plus keep an eye on China - when they start extracting their own oil (some time to go yet), demand for Western supplies will plummet.

As for MDW, we are waiting for confirmation of a US distribution deal with the giant Medtronic. This will give Mediwatch a good foot in the door of the $450 million PSA testing market. The price is likely to be around 20p shortly after this annoucement is made. Longer term they have a revolutionary point-of-care device to be released shortly which is estimated to bring in huge profits - when those profits are seen - next year's results, then we should see the price move to the 30's or 40's. In 2-3 years time I can see MDW getting close to the 1 mark.

Back on topic - in 2 years time I can see RTD at 1+.

pachandl - 06 Jul 2005 15:20 - 213 of 1009

OK, what happened? Who pulled the plug - own up.

overgrowth - 06 Jul 2005 16:28 - 214 of 1009

MMs want the shares back from the short termers before the big push on news IMHO.

overgrowth - 07 Jul 2005 07:55 - 215 of 1009

Here it is:

"Retail Decisions ('ReD'), the fuel card operator and a world leader in card
fraud prevention and payment processing, is pleased to announce that trading in
the first six months, to 30 June 2005, has been encouraging. Profit before tax
is expected to be ahead of the first half of last year, despite that period
including the 0.4m benefit of a one-off licence sale that has not been repeated
this year.

Looking forward, the results for the first half support the Board's belief that
full year profit before tax expectations will be in line with current City
forecasts.

It is expected ReD's Interim results for the six months to 30 June 2005 will be
published in early September. As previously announced, these results will be
reported under International Financial Reporting Standards."

capetown - 07 Jul 2005 08:38 - 216 of 1009

Hey fundi,guess i wont be buying champers just yet,its on ice though!

overgrowth - 07 Jul 2005 08:46 - 217 of 1009

capetown - this happened last year too - an understated pre-close statement from Clumpy and then a materially above expectations statement later in the year.

Let the traders sell off this morning and if you're buying/topping up then get in at these prices.

Remember that 4.5m shares were bought recently at a higher price than those we're looking at now.

Prepare for a very large bounce over the next few days, it's going to come very soon....

capetown - 07 Jul 2005 08:57 - 218 of 1009

overgrowth,funny you suggested topping up,i did,50,@29.75.

cheers

overgrowth - 07 Jul 2005 09:38 - 219 of 1009

capetown - perfect timing !

It looks as though we've got the early traders dip out of the system now - onwards and upwards...

overgrowth - 07 Jul 2005 13:51 - 220 of 1009

What a recovery on a day like today !

RTD is looking very strong right now.

I suspect that we're going to see a push into the high 30's over the next couple of weeks.

optomistic - 07 Jul 2005 13:55 - 221 of 1009

Would be pleased if you 'suspected' correctly og, I bought a few this morning at 29p. Was going to pay more but then the terrible events occured.

capetown - 07 Jul 2005 13:57 - 222 of 1009

Hey overgrowth,if i had got my 50 b4 the bad news!,still one should not think of money on a day like today,but as you say great move up,from a low on the day just short of 10%

overgrowth - 07 Jul 2005 14:57 - 223 of 1009

and still moving up guys...

It's still possible that we might even end up blue today.

There's no holding back good companies with solid fundamentals and growth prospects.

optomistic - 07 Jul 2005 15:40 - 224 of 1009

Have they closed the trading book for the day, no trade from 14.52 :-)

optomistic - 08 Jul 2005 10:34 - 225 of 1009

Looking good this AM.

Fred1new - 08 Jul 2005 11:47 - 226 of 1009

Not if you are short!!!







8-)

overgrowth - 08 Jul 2005 11:55 - 227 of 1009

Fred - you're not short on RTD are you ?

Check out the Elliot waves - the end of this wave we've just started on is in the high 40's, which happens to coincide with Tom Bulford, Money Week et al for the end of 2005 price prediction.

The MMs are not holding back the price for the institutions any more, so we should see plenty more upside in the next couple of weeks.

Any significant contract news or large institutional buys in the next couple of months is likely to take RTD past the 40p mark.

I'm with opto - RTD looks strong today and this uptrend now appears to be set to continue for some time.

optomistic - 08 Jul 2005 12:07 - 228 of 1009

I thought we may have pushed through 32p today, strong market, trades mostly buys. Not too late yet :-)
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