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Dowgate Capital - Capitalising on the booming AIM market (DGT)     

overgrowth - 09 Feb 2005 20:52

Dowgate Capital (DGT) are sitting in the middle of a goldmine!

This company through their sole trading arm City Financial Associates are looking to take full advantage of the "booming" AIM market this year. Dowgate provide NOMAD (NOMinated ADvisor) services to AIM companies and also have full Corporate Broker status which means that they can fund placements on behalf of the companies they represent.

On first sight, the fact that Dowgate exist in the often veiled financial services sector makes you think twice about investing in company such as this because it would be impossible to understand what they were doing - however, think again!

DGT bring new companies to the AIM (Alternative Investment Market). For each new company "floated" on AIM, they take arrangement fees when acting as NOMAD. After the company is launched then for a nice steady earner DGT get another healthy chunk of cash every year for looking after them (note that all AIM companies must have a nominated adviser - thereby securing a ready source of recurring income).

Because DGT also act as a Corporate broker they can get a very healthy percentage for arranging placement of shares with insititutions before a new company floats. In addition, because placements come outside the sphere of yearly NOMAD work, they can also gain healthy percentages of placements which companies may need to make throughout the year when they need a quick injection of cash to speed growth.

Current NOMADships: 28 companies represented (gives recurring income of approx 480,000 per year)

Current on-going Brokerage agreements: 19 companies (income depends on placements)

For flotations, depending on the size of a company, fees charged will be anything from 50,000 to 100,000+ For placements (the real earner), DGT get anything from 3% to around 12% of the TOTAL AMOUNT RAISED - For example a new company raising 3M though a placement will earn DGT anything from 90,000 to 360,000 ! These figures are indicative as actual deals all differ due to circumstances and DGT sometimes take payment in shares - they still have a tasty chunk of Setstone shares and when this Russian exploration company comes back to AIM, predictions are that the share price will rocket. Note that the amount that this little company can earn in fees is huge and every new deal that comes through we know will contribute another healthy chunk into the bottom line. The good news with every new floatation means that it's another chunk of recurring revenue which could go on for years, with DGT having to do very little. New clients gained in 2005 are:

Mediazest (NOMAD & broker) Elite Strategies (NOMAD) Process Handling (NOMAD) Poland Investment Fund (NOMAD) Nanotech Energy (NOMAD & broker) Archimedia Ventures (NOMAD & broker) Red Leopard Holdings (NOMAD) Alba Mineral Resources (NOMAD & broker) Intandem Films (NOMAD & broker) Motive Television (NOMAD) IncaGold (NOMAD) Sportswinbet (NOMAD & Broker) Infoscreen Networks (NOMAD & Broker) Mark Kingsley (NOMAD & Broker) Croatia Ventures (NOMAD & Broker) Pantheon Leisure (NOMAD) Firenze Ventures (Ofex Advisor) FlightStore Group (NOMAD & Broker) Euro Capital Projects (NOMAD) Pearl Street Holdings (NOMAD) Worldwide Natural Resources (Ofex Advisor) Dovedale Ventures (Ofex Advisor) Other 2005 work completed:Neptune-Calculus VCT offer for subs of up to 12 million Advisory work for TGM on London Bus disposal for 20.4M Advisory work for Creightons on property disposal Advisory work for Hampton Trust on company restructuring Advisory work for Interbulk Investments on acquisition of Inbulk Advisory work for Fundamental-e Investments on two disposals Advisory work for Designer Vision re: Design Rights against Centurion Electronics

Click Here for fundamentals and profit projections.
Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=DGT&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=DGT&Si

Paulo2 - 02 Mar 2006 07:34 - 2095 of 2787

Having said which I didn't get through to them until 4.30pm, so perhaps they'll be loading up on them today before doing a double-page spread for the weekend.

LOL

canary9 - 02 Mar 2006 08:02 - 2096 of 2787

Mark, cheque has been posted.......................Rod

Global Nomad - 02 Mar 2006 08:35 - 2097 of 2787

A general thankyou to all who post here for making this such a quality board and making the decisions to invest in Dowgate easier. As usual wish I had more to invest...

well done

congratulations and long may you all prosper.....

GN

sidtrix - 02 Mar 2006 09:03 - 2098 of 2787

lol Champagne was out last night, can see this one as a 10x in 2-3 years time.... roll on DGT

m0dulus - 02 Mar 2006 09:14 - 2099 of 2787

Lets hope it reaches those heights..

stockdog - 02 Mar 2006 09:21 - 2100 of 2787

Looking at the figures more closely early this morning, here are some thoughts:-

1) At 0.75p X 680,234,146 (fully diluted) shares gives a market cap of 5,101,756, less cash balances of 1,235,000 and investments of 57,000, leaves an enterprise value of 3,809,756 or 0.56 per share.

2) Excluding profit on disposal of investments of 179,000 and interest of 20,000, leaves a basic trading profit of 388,000 or 0.057p per share.

3) So there is an "enterprise PE" of 9.82. If this should be nearer 12.5, the enterprise value would be 0.71p per share. Add back the cash and investments makes 0.90p per share a more realistic value currently - surely over 1.0p on 1 year prospective.

4) the 388,000 (I estimated 332,000) trading profit plus 20,000 (I estimated 21,000) interest is much closer to my estimated 353,000 total than at first glance. The profit of 179,000 on disposal of investments was totally unpredictable. So I am heartened that my model is not so far out.

5) Retainers plus transactions totaled 2,100,000, leaving presumably 210,000 of rechargeable costs to make up total turnover of 2,310,000. Overheads incl. basic salaries of 1,067,000 plus rechargeables (at cost) of 210,000, leaves 645,000 in bonuses to make up the total expensese of 1,922,000. Bonuses are 62% of trading profit!!! But apparently in line with market rates oh dear I'm in the wrong job again!

6) For 2005's retainer income, with 21 "whole year clients" and 20 quarterly spread clients (assume evenly - 5, 3.75, 2.5, 1.25 fees per each successive quarter of 2005) we get 33.5 whole year equivalent retainer client retainers at an average of 15.4k ea. makes the 516k total retainer income.

7) So 2006 starts with 41 whole year clients at 15.4k = 631,400. Allow 2 per month added during 2006 (24 compared to 20 for 2005) at a higher average of 17,500 p.a. (actual for 2006 to date averages 18,125 over 8 new clients) makes a further 262,500 - 893,900 total. Allowing transactions fees of 50,000 (2005 51,000) per whole year client makes 2,650,000 for a total income of 3,543,900 - 69% up on 2005.

7) Overheads incl. basic salaries, adding 2 more execs at 100k ea. since beginning of year, increased by 5% inflation, makes say 1,330,000 leaves a trading profit of 2,213,900. Deduct 62% for bonuses, add say 50,000 interest, leaves a net profit of 891,282 (still no tax to pay because of brought forward losses) an increase of 52% on 2005.

8) This line edited: EPS 2006 is thus 0.13p for a forward PE of 5.72 and a PEG of 0.11 - make the PE 12.5 and you get a projected SP of 1.63p and PEG of 0.24 - still pretty respectable.

I'll leave it up to you all as to how believable these figures are. I would particularly welcome suggestions how to gauge transaction income - my method is rational but looks a little high I have to admit.

SP up another 5% so far today at 0.79p - happy days!

sd

EWRobson - 02 Mar 2006 09:47 - 2101 of 2787

Read a nice book to my grandson called 'my dog can say 100 words': of course, he wakes up and says he'll teach him next year. Well, your financial vocabulary looks first class. I like the results too: they may even be a dream coming true. The news is filtering out, it seems according to the buying volume today. You would expect larger clients to be gradually hauled in and therefore the average transaction value to increase. The outcome stands up against trends. My other positive point is that the overall market is growing, so that you could see several years of organic growth; I would have thought they could grow the fund-raising side without an acquisition as they are clearly attractive to staff (particularly with those bonuses). Thus there is an argument for the pe being higher and you could set a target sp of 2p in a year's time.

Eric

corehard - 02 Mar 2006 09:55 - 2102 of 2787

Consistent buys since 9am.....

EWRobson - 02 Mar 2006 12:47 - 2103 of 2787

sd Just been going through your numbers, a real pedigree job! 2006 will almost certainly see an increase in overhead to cover business development or, rather, cost at corporate level. I suspect they will leave CFA to do the advisory work and use a separate entity for broker oriented raising of funds. Nevertheless that is investment in the future and should justify a higher pe. From the report and bearing in mind RIL this development has to happen.

I think the announcement was one new fee-earner or is there a second person on the web-site. They will certainly need the extra resource. 50% increase of earners ties in with 50% increase in sales. Your average transaction value is cautious as you would expect the average to rise as they increase in credibility.

I'll wait to see whether Shares give a good write-up before writing (PTH is away). It may get on their radar this time. If not, I will want to know why!

Keep up the good work; sorry, play for a hound.

Eric

stockdog - 02 Mar 2006 12:55 - 2104 of 2787

Results say 2 new execs taken on since start of year.

Transaction fee per client is cautious, but it's only an average - some clients will have no transactiosn in a year of course - the mean actual fee may be twice this.

great progress this morning on the SP! - now represetns 20% of my portfolio - take profits at 25%???

sd

EWRobson - 02 Mar 2006 13:03 - 2105 of 2787

Thanks, sd, missed the point re 2 execs; measure of their confidence and supports your projections. Wouldn't take profits yet; where can you find such a sure fire winner? Having a super run with CFDs on AZM (have another look, please) and ASC but, given DGT is a direct investment, its 'top dog'. OK, perhaps sell a few at 1p but mustn't drop below a million!
Eric

stockdog - 02 Mar 2006 13:07 - 2106 of 2787

Eric

I have to remember it was you put me onto DGT - thanks. I love being able to track it's figures - even if I'm always wrong!, lol.

Already in ASC and SEO big time - no spare funds for AZM, so can you short it for me for a while to keep the SP within range for when I dare sell anything, please!

Any sign of TR adding - or does he get enough via a share scheme?

sd

EWRobson - 02 Mar 2006 13:11 - 2107 of 2787

Can't hold back the AZM tidal wave; too much momentum. But I would hold DGT rather than switch if that is the option. Suspect TR took half the bonuses himself, and why not? So wouldn't be surprised if he topped up with the odd 10 million shares. How many would be 'enough'? I don't have enough. I remember recommending 3 fictitious shares to you and then gave you dgt, CFP then, as a compensating bone. Glad you have had such a good chew and your analysis is invaluable.
Eric

markusantonius - 02 Mar 2006 13:23 - 2108 of 2787

Interesting that sells slightly > buys ATM yet the sp stays high today. There will obviously be some sellers today after recent hikes but yes the future looks rosy. Eric/Stockdog - excellent posts, guys!!

markusantonius - 02 Mar 2006 17:32 - 2109 of 2787

Mmmhh..... 10.7 buys : 12.8 sells at Close yet we are still +10%..... so all bodes well indeed.....

:o)

stockdog - 02 Mar 2006 19:03 - 2110 of 2787

marcus - wouldn't be surprised of that 1,250,000 T trade at 78p was placed first thing this morning (by TR? - it's his sort of figure from history) before the SP got going - in which case it could well be a buy.

That would make it 11.95 buys to 11.55 sells - tips the odds a little.

Hope we make it up through 85p tomorrow to end the week above the last high. I guess there'll be a number of profit takers still to wash through at this level.

Needless to say, I'm holding for even better things.

sd

EWRobson - 02 Mar 2006 20:40 - 2111 of 2787

sd: 85p is a tad optimistic! Or have you pre-determined the 100 for 1 scrip? Your figures demand an sp of 1p on this run and feel in my waters that this will happen. You dogs understand all about waters, accustomed as you are to leg cocking! We've even got markus into a hold position (nothing to do with the leg) which is quite something. The other point about the market is that the steady upward pressure today suggests that the MMs are still working significant buy orders.

Eric

Global Nomad - 03 Mar 2006 09:03 - 2112 of 2787

virtually all buys (1m+) this first hour but no movement in price...

Paulo2 - 03 Mar 2006 09:18 - 2113 of 2787

sd, golden cross looking more likely?

stockdog - 03 Mar 2006 11:05 - 2114 of 2787

Paulo - I said some time ago that this Friday was possible but not probable and that next Firday was highly likely. Well it will happen on Wednesday next week if the SP sustains .84p or thereabouts until then. (Subtract days 48 (0.44) 49(0.42) and 50 (0.43) ago, add 3 X .84p and divide by 50 = 0.0246. Add this to today's 50dma (0.54) and you get 0.5646, just a tad above the 200dma (or more likely bang on it by Wednesday's crossing point).

With both 50dma and 200dma moving upwards this is a nice positive chart signal - could bring in those that follow these runes to add to recent buyers. If we do not drop back from 0.84 by end of today, next week will bring more advance I reckon - it's very positive to have no retracement from the initial flurry after results.

sd
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