Thought a place for metals news might be useful:

METALS-Copper slips, demand uncertainty dominates mood
Wed Oct 7, 2009 3:01pm EDT
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* Copper stocks rise again; highest since May * Investors eye mining labor talks * Analysts expect further support from dollar weakness
(Adds NEW YORK to dateline, recasts, adds New York closing copper
prices and analyst comments) By Chris Kelly and Rebekah Curtis NEW YORK/LONDON, Oct 7 (Reuters) - Copper ended down a shade
on Wednesday in thin and volatile trade during Chinese holidays,
with rising stocks fueling uncertainty over demand against a
fragile economic background. Copper for December delivery HGZ9 on the New York Mercantile
Exchange's COMEX division eased 0.50 cent to settle at $2.7795 a
lb, after dealing in a session range between $2.7510 and $2.8040. On the London Metal Exchange (LME), copper for three-month
delivery MCU3 fell $21 to close at $6,095 a tonne. Prices of the metal used in power and construction have
doubled this year, driven by improving economic data, investor
flows and Chinese stockpiling. But sentiment has turned fragile in recent months as buying by
China, the world's top copper consumer, has tailed off and demand
from other world economies hampered by slowdown has yet to pick up
the slack. "There's been no effective economic growth caused by the
stimulus in the West," said John Meyer, analyst at Fairfax
investment bank. "We haven't seen any major infrastructure projects," he added.
"The only positive stimulus we've really seen is in China and
nearby regions." Trade was thin and volatile due a run of holidays in China
where markets shut on Oct. 1 for the National Day and Autumn
Festival holidays and only reopen on Friday. Additionally, nervousness in front of third-quarter earnings
results from aluminum producer Alcoa (AA.N) added to the lighter
conditions. "There is some nervousness out there in front of that number
that is keeping people a little bit to the sidelines today," said
Sterling Smith, an analyst for Country Hedging Inc in St. Paul,
Minnesota. "If Alcoa were to beat expectations, or up their guidance, or
preferably both, I think that will be very bullish for copper, and
for the industrial metals in general. I think you've got a lot of
hands being kind of quiet today ahead of it." A recent bout of more encouraging economic data has helped
underpin prices, including data showing German manufacturing
orders rose slightly more than expected in August on a boost from
foreign demand. [ID:nL7400974] STOCKS RISING Underlining demand concerns, LME copper stocks, which have
climbed since mid-July, rose 725 tonnes to 347,150 tonnes -- their
highest since May 2009. But recent dollar weakness is expected to support industrial
metals as a lower U.S. currency makes dollar-priced commodities
cheaper for holders of other currencies. And despite the dollar broadly firming on Wednesday, some
analysts see the currency falling further. [USD/] "If the dollar remains under pressure then the base metals
complex will continue to be supported and short players will
reduce risk," RBC Capital Markets said in a note. In the background, labor talks are being watched closely.
Chilean workers at Spence copper mine were in contract
negotiations with owner BHP Billiton (BLT.L)(BHP.AX).
[ID:nN06449937] "There are a number of potential supply issues hanging over
the market," said Gayle Berry, an analyst at Barclays Capital.
"That's offering a little bit of support." Aluminum MAL3 ended at $1,845 from $1,822. Zinc MZN3
closed at $1,935 a tonne from $1,921 and battery material lead
MPB3 at $2,155 from $2,150. Steel-making ingredient nickel MNI3 closed at $18,600 from
$18,130 and tin MSN3 at $14,700 from $14,675. Latest LME data showed that a dominant position still holds
more than 90 percent of tin stock warrants and cash contracts. The premium for cash material over the three-month future has
fallen to $430 a tonne from $695 a tonne last week on talk that
the position could be scaled back. [ID:nLN605546]
Metal Prices at 1842 GMT
Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2008 Ytd Pct move
COMEX Cu 276.75 -0.80 -0.29 139.50 98.39
LME Alum 1835.00 13.00 +0.71 1535.00 19.54
LME Cu 6090.00 -26.00 -0.43 3060.00 99.02
LME Lead 2146.00 -4.00 -0.19 999.00 114.81
LME Nickel 18600.00 470.00 +2.59 11700.00 58.97
LME Tin 14680.00 85.00 +0.58 10700.00 37.20
LME Zinc 1940.00 19.00 +0.99 1208.00 60.60
SHFE Alu 14835.00 130.00 +0.88 11540.00 28.55
SHFE Cu* 48190.00 1720.00 +3.70 23840.00 102.14
SHFE Zin 15330.00 240.00 +1.59 10120.00 51.48
** 1st contract month for COMEX copper * 3rd contract month for
SHFE AL, CU and ZN SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07
(Additional reporting by Michael Taylor and Pratima Desai in
London; Editing by Keiron Henderson and Christian Wiessner)

Commodity charts link

Mining giant Xstrata is to take charges of nearly $2.5bn this year after restructuring its copper, zinc and nickel operations in Canada and Australia. In Canada, it will take a $375m charge for the permanent closure of its copper and zinc metallurgical plants at the Kidd Metallurgical site in Timmins next May, which is part of a plan to restructure its Canadian metallurgical operations.

Gold fell for the third consecutive day as the dollar extended gains against major currencies. Gold for February delivery fell $20.60 to end at $1,143.40 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The rising dollar and inflationary concerns have hit gold prices hard, as its appeal as an alternative investment wanes.

March copper fell 4 cents to $3.17 a pound. Silver for March was down 58 cents to $17.79 an ounce.

London open: Miners lead Footsie higher11-12-2009 08:45

London's leading shares have opened higher with miners boosted by industrial growth figures coming out of China.

Industrial production growth in China rose again in November to hit 19.1% year-on-year. It is fastest pace of growth in industrial production since June 2007. Kazakhmys, Rio Tinto and Xstrata are all going well.

Support services and construction company Carillion expects market conditions will remain challenging but said it believes it will make further progress in 2010. Underlying earnings per share are forecast to grow by at least 10% in the 12 month ended 31 December.

There are no fallers on the blue chip index at present.

Casinos and bingo outfit Rank said it has submitted a claim for VAT overpaid on main stage bingo for periods from July 2004. If successful, Rank estimates that the net cash benefit arising from this claim will be approximately 16m.

HMV's half-year loss before tax narrowed to 24.9m from 27.5m a year earlier. The entertainment media retailer's total sales in the 6 months 24 October were up 5.6% to 797m from 754.5m at the interim stage in 2008, but this masked a 2.1% decline in like for like sales that was primarily caused by weak trading at Waterstone's, its book selling arm.

HSBC Infrastructure, the trust that invests in infrastructure projects, is to pump 2.1m in to the Helicopter Training Facility private finance initiative (PFI) project.

Road and infrastructure support contractor Mouchel has seen its order book hold steady at 2bn and remains on track to met its expectations for this year to July 2010, even though the situation in Dubai has 'clearly deteriorated'.

Good demand at its signal business will mean LED sensor specialist Dialight 'will exceed its previous earnings expectations' this year.

Stock Market News Share NewsShare chatShare chartsTips

Commodities: Gold and Oil continue to look heavy as dollar recovers11-12-2009 16:10
Gold and oil continue to remain under pressure after US retail sales came in well above expectations. This has raised expectations that the Federal Reserve may have to raise rates sooner rather than later.

Gold has broken below its previous lows for this week, and support area around $1,117.30, and looks set to test the longer term support line around the $1,070 area.

Crude Oil also continues to look heavy, dropping below $70 to touch its lowest levels for over 2 months, and could well be set to test the 25th September lows at $65.05.

Technical Analysis: Gold breaks back above $1,142 11-01-2010 17:10

Last Friday's jobs data has taken the legs out of the recent US dollar rally and sent Gold back higher again, after its recent losses from its November highs of $1,226.50.

The positive economic news out of China has also led to a surge in commodity prices and a decline in the dollar, so the greenback is suffering on both fronts at the moment as risk appetite returns to the market.



The break back above the resistance highs at $1,142 should re-target the highs of last year. The key support level on the downside remains the lows around $1,070. This level also corresponds to around a 38.2 retracement of the move up from the $803 2009 lows, to the highs in November at $1,126.50.

Nothing has changed with respect to the overall Gold picture and the concerns and robustness of the US dollar as a reserve currency.

Too many central banks remain overly exposed to the greenback and there is still plenty of desire to diversify some of their counterparty risk away from US assets into commodities like Copper, Gold and Platinum.

The US dollar index can still rise along with commodity prices because the dollar index is only a representation of the dollar's value against six other currencies.

At some point Gold and the dollar could well de-couple and both push higher into 2010.

Vedanta trading statement

Gold Heads for Second Monthly Drop as Dollars Gain Cuts Demand
By Jae Hur

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Gold declined for a fourth day, heading for its second monthly decline, as the dollars advance reduced the metals appeal.

Bullion fell as much as 0.5 percent to $1,081.80 an ounce compared with last months close of $1,096.95. The Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against six major counterparts, rose for a fourth day to a five-month high.

Further gains in the U.S. dollar would keep gold prices on the defensive, said Toby Hassall, an analyst with CWA Global Markets Pty Ltd. in Sydney. Prices are finding support at the level of Decembers lows.

Gold for immediate delivery fell $4.30 to $1,082.80 an ounce at 2:08 p.m. in Tokyo after touching $1,073.85 yesterday, the lowest level since Nov. 3. Last month, the metal traded as low as $1,074.88

Bullion for April delivery, the most widely held futures contract, dropped 0.2 percent to $1,082.70 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The euro is trading at its weakest level in more than six months against the dollar before a report today that economists said will show Europes unemployment rate climbed to the highest in more than 11 years. The 16-nation currency also fell on speculation budget crises in Greece and Portugal will worsen.

The dollar last traded at $1.3933 per euro after earlier reaching $1.3913, the strongest since July 14. The Dollar Index rose for a fourth day to 79.078 after touching 79.156, the highest level since Aug. 19.

Under Pressure

The dollar is the natural beneficiary of euro-zone uncertainty, according to Walter de Wet, an analyst at Standard Bank Ltd. in London. Commodities prices, especially gold, may come under pressure, he said.

Eleven of 22 traders, investors and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg said that bullion would decline next week. Seven forecast higher prices and four were neutral.

Among other precious metals, silver for immediate delivery eased 0.1 percent to $16.2325 an ounce after touching $15.9925 yesterday, the lowest level since Oct. 2. Palladium dropped 0.8 percent to $416.80 an ounce, while spot platinum was little changed at $1,511.13 an ounce.

The results season for mining companies remains in full flow with Xstrata, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto all set to give fourth quarter updates next week.

Credit Suisse is forecasting a 31% year on year fall in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation for Swiss-headquartered miner Xstrata and a 30% fall in net income, due to lower commodity prices, especially in the thermal coal and ferrochrome markets.

Underlying earnings per share (EPS) are tipped by the Swiss bank to be $1, slightly below the market consensus of $1.03.

We expect the company to provide an upbeat outlook on growth prospects. Several projects received approval in December 09 and we expect several more to follow this year, Credit Suisse said. Factoring in the most probable unapproved projects we could see volumes in the key copper and thermal coal divisions increase by 58% and 42% respectively over the next five years, the bank predicts.

Xstrata is issuing its results on Monday.

U.S. gold hits 3-month low on risk-averse selling
Fri Feb 5, 2010 3:19pm EST
NEW YORK, Feb 5 (Reuters) - U.S. gold futures fell to their
lowest in more than three months on Friday, ending the week 2
percent lower, as economic uncertainties led to heavy selling
in gold and other investments perceived as riskier.

GOLD
* April GCJ0 settles down $10.20 at $1,052.80 an ounce on COMEX division of NYMEX.
* Range $1,069.40 to $1,044.50 -- weakest since Oct. 30.
* April was about 2 percent lower from last Friday's close
at $1,083.80.
* Gold pressured as euro fell below key $1.37, the lowest
level since May. [USD/]
* CitiFX recommends exiting short euro/dollar trade as
heavy support seen at $1.36 area.
* Rise in sovereign risk in euro-zone countries to increase
risk aversion, weighing heavily on gold - James Steel of HSBC.
* April briefly traded higher after U.S. Jan. jobs report.
* Payrolls fell unexpectedly in January, but unemployment rate surprisingly dropped to a five-month low. [ID:nN04115255]
* Sell-off may be buying opportunity as institutional players allocating more to gold in long term - HSBC's Steel.
* Oil briefly dropped below $70 a barrel on broad-based
commodities weakness
* Gold-to-oil ratio at 14.86, against 14.52 in the previous
session.
* COMEX estimated final volume at 224,472 contracts.
* Spot gold XAU= at $1,065.10 at 3:07 p.m. EST (2007
GMT), against $1,062.60 in late New York business.
* London afternoon gold fix XAUFIX= at $1,058. SILVER
* March SIH0 ends down 52 cents, or 3.4 percent, at
$14.83 an ounce, tracking gold.
* Range $15.380 to $14.650 - lowest since September.
* COMEX estimated final volume at 59,980 lots.
* Spot silver XAG= at $15.03 an ounce, compared with $15.23 late in the previous session in New York.
* London silver XAGFIX= afternoon fix at $15.17 an ounce.
PLATINUM
* April PLJ0 finishes down $40.20, or 2.7 percent, at $1,475.10 an ounce as weaker economic sentiment hurts industrial metals.
* Spot platinum XPT= at $1,476 an ounce. PALLADIUM
* March palladium PAH0 closes down $10.15, or 2.5 percent, at $398.25 an ounce, taking the lead from platinum.
* Spot palladium XPD= at $395.50 an ounce.

Close Change Pct 2009 YTD

Chg Close % Chg
US gold GCJ0 1052.80 -10.2 -1.0 1096.20 -4.0
US silver SIH0 14.830 -0.520 -3.4 16.845 -12.0
US platinum PLJ0 1475.10 -40.20 -2.7 1471.00 0.3
US palladium PAH0 398.25 -10.15 -2.5 408.85 -2.6

Prices at 2:39 p.m. EST (1939 GMT)

Gold XAU= 1061.30 -1.30 -0.1 1096.35 -3.2
Silver XAG= 14.90 -0.33 -2.2 16.84 -11.5
Platinum XPT= 1469.00 -30.50 -2.0 1465.50 0.2
Palladium XPD= 394.50 -12.000 -3.0 405.50 -2.7
Gold Fix XAUFIX= 1058.00 5.75 0.5 1104 -4.2
Silver Fix XAGFIX= 15.17 -96.00 -6.0 16.99 -10.7
Platinum Fix XPTFIX= 1475.00 2.00 0.1 1466 0.6
Palladium Fix XPDFIX= 395.00 8.00 2.1 402 -1.7
(Reporting by Frank Tang; Editing by Walter Bagley)

Analysts expected trade to quiet down in the lead up to the Chinese new
year holiday that will close the Chinese market for a week from Feb. 14. Some analysts were confident the longer-term outlook for base metals demand
and prices remained strong. "The global economic recovery is still on track, Chinese demand is still
very robust, policy makers are in no rush to reduce liquidity, and many base
metals are still facing structural supply shortages," Leon Westgate, an analyst
at Standard Bank, said in a note. But top global miner BHP Billiton (BHP.AX) signaled caution over a
sustained global recovery and held off from a share buyback after reporting its
weakest first-half profit in four years. [ID:nSGE61800Z] Aluminum MAL3 ended at $2,030, down from $2,056. Stocks of aluminum stand near 4.6 million tonnes, but fell 5,750 tonnes to
continue a recent trend of drops that has brought stocks away from a record
high above the 4.6 million-tonne level. Zinc MZN3 closed at $2,114 from $2,104 and battery material lead MPB3
ended at $2,045 from $2,032.5. Tin MSN3 closed at $15,700 from $15,500 and nickel MNI3 at $17,710 from
$17,550.

BHP, China Agree 40% Provisional Ore Price Gain, Analyst Says
By Bloomberg News

Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- BHP Billiton Ltd., the worlds biggest mining company, and some Chinese steelmakers have agreed to a provisional 40 percent increase in contract iron-ore prices, said UC361.com analyst Hu Kai, citing the mills.

Final benchmark contract-price agreements for the year may still be settled first by Japanese mills and the ore producers, Hu said in a phone interview, without naming any of the mills. Some of the annual Chinese contracts start from Jan. 1, he said.

Talks to set 2010 benchmark prices have begun between mills and suppliers including BHP and Rio Tinto Group, the China Iron & Steel Association said this week. Baosteel Group Corp. and Rio have named new negotiators, signaling the mills and miners want to start afresh after failing to agree on prices last year.

The steelmakers were asked either to accept the provisional price gain, or indexed pricing, UC361.coms Hu said. BHP said last month it sold 46 percent of its first-half ore cargoes from Western Australia through a mix of cash, quarterly and index pricing.
Full story.

Gold Falls, Paring Weekly Gain, as Dollar Gains on Greece Woes
By Kim Kyoungwha

Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Gold declined, paring its first weekly advance in five, on speculation the dollar will strengthen against major global currencies as the European Union struggles with fiscal deficits in member states.

Gold for immediate delivery slipped 0.5 percent to $1,090.52 an ounce at 1:45 p.m. in Singapore, after jumping 2.2 percent yesterday. The metal has gained 2.3 percent this week. The euro traded near a one-week low against the dollar after the EU stopped short of offering concrete steps to help Greece following a summit yesterday.

Gold remains in a tight temporary trading range, with price downside limited by golds ongoing attraction in the face of economic uncertainty, said Gavin Wendt, Sydney-based senior resource analyst with Mine Life Pty Ltd. On the other hand, immediate upside is limited by some degree of strength in the U.S. dollar.

The euro weakened as statements by European leaders left open how the EU would respond to the threat to the currency from budget deficits in Greece, Spain and Portugal.

The Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge of the greenbacks strength, gained as much as 0.2 percent to 80.149 today.

Nine of 22 traders, investors and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, or 41 percent, said bullion would rise next week. Six forecast lower prices and seven were neutral.

While the inverse relationship between the dollar and the gold price has dominated the market over the past few weeks, gold prices are expected to remain well supported, Ben Westmore, an analyst with National Bank of Australia, wrote in a note to clients. A rise in jewelry consumption and further central bank purchases of gold on price moderation are expected, he wrote.

Silver for immediate delivery rose 0.2 percent to $15.69 an ounce, platinum slid 0.3 percent to $1,525.25 an ounce and palladium decreased 0.6 percent to $419.88 an ounce.

Gold Falls, Paring Weekly Gain, as Dollar Gains on Greece Woes
By Kim Kyoungwha

Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Gold declined, paring its first weekly advance in five, on speculation the dollar will strengthen against major global currencies as the European Union struggles with fiscal deficits in member states.

Gold for immediate delivery slipped 0.5 percent to $1,090.52 an ounce at 1:45 p.m. in Singapore, after jumping 2.2 percent yesterday. The metal has gained 2.3 percent this week. The euro traded near a one-week low against the dollar after the EU stopped short of offering concrete steps to help Greece following a summit yesterday.

Gold remains in a tight temporary trading range, with price downside limited by golds ongoing attraction in the face of economic uncertainty, said Gavin Wendt, Sydney-based senior resource analyst with Mine Life Pty Ltd. On the other hand, immediate upside is limited by some degree of strength in the U.S. dollar.

The euro weakened as statements by European leaders left open how the EU would respond to the threat to the currency from budget deficits in Greece, Spain and Portugal.

The Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge of the greenbacks strength, gained as much as 0.2 percent to 80.149 today.

Nine of 22 traders, investors and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, or 41 percent, said bullion would rise next week. Six forecast lower prices and seven were neutral.

While the inverse relationship between the dollar and the gold price has dominated the market over the past few weeks, gold prices are expected to remain well supported, Ben Westmore, an analyst with National Bank of Australia, wrote in a note to clients. A rise in jewelry consumption and further central bank purchases of gold on price moderation are expected, he wrote.

Silver for immediate delivery rose 0.2 percent to $15.69 an ounce, platinum slid 0.3 percent to $1,525.25 an ounce and palladium decreased 0.6 percent to $419.88 an ounce.

EMU - you have an e-mail

Anglo May Resume Dividend Payment After Asset Sales (Update1)

Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Anglo American Plc may announce a resumption of dividends as early as tomorrow after agreeing to sell part of its Tarmac construction materials unit for $400 million, Credit Suisse Group AG and Liberum Capital Ltd. said.

Anglo, which reports full-year results tomorrow at 7 a.m. in London, scrapped the payout a year ago as commodity prices plunged. The companys shares tumbled 17 percent, the biggest slump in four months, on Feb. 20, the day the suspension was announced. Rival London-listed mining companies Rio Tinto Group and Xstrata Plc restored their dividends last week.

The miner will be keen to restart the dividend as soon as possible, particularly given how badly the dividend cut was taken by investors last year, Credit Suisse analysts Michael Shillaker and Liam Fitzpatrick wrote yesterday in a note. The London-based analysts have an outperform rating on Anglo.

Anglos Chief Executive Officer Cynthia Carroll, who rejected a proposed bid for the company from Switzerlands Xstrata last year, has been trying to regain investors confidence and curb debt with a planned $2 billion in savings from job and cost cuts. Her suspension of dividend payments was the first by the company since World War II.

The company, with stakes in the worlds biggest platinum and diamond producers, said Feb. 16 it will sell parts of its building aggregates unit to Frances Vinci SA and buyout fund Innova/4 LP. Commodity prices rose last year with copper and zinc, mined by Anglo, doubling on the London Metal Exchange.

Diamonds and Platinum

A token dividend is affordable and justifiable, said Liberum Capital, a London-based investment bank, in a note yesterday. The market is not anticipating a dividend restart though we believe Anglo could surprise the market.

Anglo American wont declare a dividend until August 2011, according to forecasts and analysis Bloomberg compiled. Analysts at UBS AG and Macquarie Group said the company wont likely announce a resumption tomorrow. Anglo Americans London-based spokesman James Wyatt-Tilby declined to comment.

Rio and Xstrata revived dividends after selling shares through rights offers and as iron ore and coal prices rose, while Anglo American gets revenue from diamonds and platinum that advanced at a slower pace, according to Henk Groenewald, an analyst at Cape Town-based Coronation Fund Managers Ltd.

Anglo still has a lot of debt, he said. The company, with net debt of $11.3 billion as of June 30, controls Anglo Platinum Ltd., the biggest maker of the precious metal, and holds 45 percent of De Beers, the largest diamond producer.

Anglos Pledge

The parent will report so-called underlying profit fell 54 percent to $1.99 a share in 2009, according to the median of 24 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Xstrata said last week that its full-year net income declined 41 percent, while Rio posted a 33 percent increase.

Anglo has also pledged to take up its full allocations in a 12.5 billion-rand ($1.6 billion) rights offer by Anglo Platinum and a $1 billion offer by De Beers.

Shares of Anglo have dropped 10 percent so far this year in London Stock Exchange trading, while Xstrata is down 4 percent and Rio has climbed 0.7 percent. BHP Billiton Ltd., the worlds largest mining company, is down 0.6 percent.

More than any other company, more than Rio, the canceling of the dividend went down really badly, and theyve come under a lot of pressure since, said Tom Gidley-Kitchin, an analyst with Charles Stanley Group Plc in London.

Platinum Targets 2-Year High After Declines: Technical Analysis
By Glenys Sim

Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Platinum may rally to $2,000 an ounce, presenting a good buying opportunity after a recent drop, Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. said, citing trading patterns.

If the metal closes at more than $1,555 an ounce at the end of a month, the bullish momentum should increase, according to a note yesterday from Nicole Elliott, London-based senior technical analyst at Mizuho.

Having almost met our medium-term target in the $1,700 area, spot platinum has slipped from the 61 percent Fibonacci resistance, she wrote. This is good news because it had become terribly overbought. So-called resistance prices may identify clusters of sell orders.

Platinum, which has lost 2 percent this month, reached a record $2,301.50 an ounce on March 4, 2008, and last traded above $2,000 an ounce in July 2008. The precious metal was at $1,514.25 an ounce at 9:03 a.m. in Singapore.

The corrective dip was stemmed by the 26-week moving average but we cannot rule out another deeper leg lower towards $1,400, maybe $1,340, Elliott wrote. This is seen as a good buying opportunity, especially if channel support holds.

Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low. A break of a level of support indicates a price may move to the next level. A failure indicates a trend may stall. Other key Fibonacci levels include 38.2 percent and 50 percent.

METALS-Copper at 3-week high as economic prospects shine
Thu Feb 18, 2010 4:06pm EST
Chris Kelly and Maytaal Angel NEW YORK/LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
Copper climbed to its
highest level in three weeks on Thursday, after strong regional
manufacturing data in the United States pointed to brighter
economic prospects and offset labor market concerns and higher
producer inflation. Copper for March delivery on the New York Mercantile
Exchange's COMEX division rose 4.60 cents, or 1.4 percent, to
settle at $3.2855 per lb, its highest level on a closing basis
since Jan. 26. On the London Metal Exchange (LME), benchmark copper for
three-months delivery peaked at $7,336, its highest since Jan. 27,
and was last quoted at $7,260/7,265 a tonne from a close of $7,130
on Wednesday. "You have to take copper as a leader," said Frank McGhee, head
precious metals trader with Integrated Brokerage Services LLC in
Chicago. "It is so sensitive to slow-downs and to pickups, and
stock builds and stock drawdowns, that I think it is trying to
tell you that there is going to be a (economic) uptick." That economic optimism was reflected in two reports showing
stronger gains in factory activity in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region
and a tenth straight monthly rise in a gauge of the economy's
prospects. But separate data, showing a surge in weekly U.S. jobless
claims and a faster-than-expected rise in U.S. January producer
prices tempered the gains. Expectations of increased Chinese demand offered additional
underpinnings for copper prices, analysts said. Chinese markets are closed this week for Lunar New Year
holidays, but analysts expect demand from the world's top copper
consumer will remain robust in the coming weeks. "Demand is looking good. Everyone's bullish in the long run,"
said VTB Capital analyst Andrey Kryuchenkov. "Demand will be good in the second quarter, when the Chinese
come back to the market," he said, adding Chinese demand
traditionally strengthens in weeks after the New Year holidays. EARMARKED Tempering upbeat sentiment, LME copper stocks rose 5,175
tonnes to 555,075, the highest since October 2003. Canceled
warrants -- material earmarked for delivery out of warehouses --
fell to 15,250 tonnes from 16,900 the previous day. Prices of copper and other metals have been gaining traction
in recent weeks thanks to the rise in canceled warrants, which
participants believe indicates a pickup in real demand outside
China. In other metals, aluminum, used in transport and packaging,
closed at $2,114 a tonne from $2,122. LME aluminum stocks fell 3,900 tonnes to total 4.6 million
tonnes - near record levels, while canceled warrants fell to
289,425 tonnes from 293,175 tonnes. However, canceled warrants remain near their highest ever
levels, indicating demand is increasing. Zinc traded at $2,310 a tonne from $2,300, while battery
material lead traded at $2,319 from $2,290. Zinc stocks fell 75 tonnes to 541,300 tonnes, but the fall did
little to combat the previous day's rise of nearly 40,000 tonnes,
which traders believe was sparked in part by tightness around the
May prompt date. Tin traded at $17,050 a tonne from $16,750, and nickel closed
at $20,450 from $20,140. The metal used for galvanizing steel
earlier hit $20,600, marking a six-month high for a third
consecutive day.

Copper Futures Decline After U.S. Consumer Confidence Drops

Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Copper fell the most in almost three weeks after a report showed that confidence among U.S. consumers slid to the lowest level since April, a sign that the recovery in the worlds largest economy may be slow.

The Conference Boards gauge of consumer sentiment declined to 46 in February, the business-backed group said. Thats beneath the lowest forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 68 economists. Copper dropped 8.8 percent last month on concern that a slowing economic rebound will curb demand for the metal used in pipes and wires.

This bad consumer-confidence report is a great excuse for people to take their money off the table and wait to see how things shake out, said Michael K. Smith, the president of T&K Futures & Options in Port St. Lucie, Florida. Its definitely causing concern.

Copper futures for May delivery sank 9.4 cents, or 2.8 percent, to $3.2345 a pound on the New York Mercantile Exchanges Comex unit. That marks the biggest decline for a most-active contract since Feb. 4.

Rio Tinto Group, the worlds third-largest mining company, said the removal of government stimulus packages and slowing consumer spending may dent demand for metals in the second half of the year.

There are plenty of negative forces out there, Vivek Tulpule, the chief economist for London-based Rio, said in an interview.

Copper prices also dropped as the dollar gained, reducing demand for commodities as alternative assets. The U.S. Dollar Index, a six-currency measure of the greenbacks strength, rose as much as 0.6 percent.

On the London Metal Exchange, copper for three-month delivery fell 2.7 percent to $7,132 a metric ton ($3.24 a pound). Aluminum, nickel, tin, lead and zinc prices also declined.

Stocks, Copper, Oil Fall on Greek Debt Risk, U.S. Economic Data
By Nick Baker

Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks and commodities fell and the euro weakened as Moodys Investors Service said it may cut Greeces rating and U.S. employment and durable-goods orders missed forecasts. German two-year yields fell to a record low.

The Standard & Poors 500 Index dropped 1.4 percent at 11:13 a.m. in New York for the biggest loss in three weeks. The MSCI World Index of shares in 23 developed nations slumped 1.5 percent. Copper and oil retreated in New York. The euro weakened against the yen, which strengthened against the 16 most-traded currencies. The yield premium on Greek 10-year bonds versus German debt widened to the most since Feb. 8.

The warning from Moodys, a day after S&Ps statement that it may downgrade Greek debt, rattled investors who drove the euro down more than 8 percent against the yen in 2010 on concern Greeces fiscal woes may spread through Europe. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke testifies to Congress today after saying yesterday that the U.S. economy is in a nascent recovery and requires low interest rates to stoke demand.

Signs of discomfort with sovereign debt are surfacing, with investors putting upward pressure on interest rates in developed nations in Europe, Tony Crescenzi, a strategist and fund manager at Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California, wrote in a research note.

Default Risk

The cost of insuring against default on Greek government debt rose for a fourth day on concern ratings downgrades will cut the nations access to European Central Bank funding. Credit-default swaps on Greece jumped 10 basis points to 394, the highest in more than two weeks, according to CMA DataVision prices at 2:45 p.m. in London.

The premium that investors demand to hold Greek 10-year bonds over German debt widened 14 basis points to 353 basis points, quadruple the average over the past five years.

Greece has to repay more than 20 billion euros ($27 billion) of maturing bonds and bills by the end of May, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. A Moodys downgrade may make it harder for the nations banks to fund themselves by making Greek government debt ineligible as collateral for European Central Bank loans.

The U.S. Labor Department said initial jobless applications rose by 22,000 to 496,000 in the week ended Feb. 20, the highest level in three months. Economists forecast a decline to 460,000, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. In a separate report, the Commerce Department said orders for U.S. durable goods excluding transportation equipment fell 0.6 percent in January, the most since August and compared with the median economist projection for a 1 percent increase.

Caterpillar, UPS

General Electric Co., Caterpillar Inc. and United Parcel Service Inc. led declines in U.S. industrial companies, while Alcoa Inc. and Exxon Mobil Corp. retreated with commodity prices. Coca-Cola Co., the worlds largest soda maker, lost 3.4 percent after agreeing to buy Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc.s North American bottling division. GameStop Corp. lost 8 percent after its chief financial officer quit to join Wal-Mart Stores Inc.

Europes Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index fell 1.6 percent. Tenaris SA led declines in basic-resource shares, losing 11 percent in Italy. British American Tobacco Plc, Europes second- largest cigarette maker, dropped 2.4 percent after reporting net income that missed forecasts.

Copper futures slipped 1.6 percent in New York, while crude oil slumped 2.5 percent.

One-Year High

The yen climbed to a one-year high against the euro as concern Greeces credit ratings may be downgraded spurred investors to unwind positions in riskier assets. The yen appreciated 1.7 percent to 120.11 per euro from 122.03 yen yesterday. It touched 119.76, the first time the currency has fallen below the 120 yen level since Feb. 24, 2009.

Turkish stocks fell, heading for the biggest weekly loss since November 2008, after talks between the army and government today failed to ease political tensions over an alleged coup plot. The main ISE National 100 index lost 1.9 percent after gaining 2 percent earlier. The lira lost 1 percent.

Investors are betting political turmoil will weaken Turkeys lira more than any other currency as the arrest about 50 army officers over an alleged coup plot raises tension between the government and the military. One-month put options that grant the right to sell the lira against the dollar have surged to a 3.4 percentage-point premium over equivalent call options to buy the currency. The gap, known as the risk-reversal rate, widened from 2.25 percentage points a week ago and is the highest of 48 currencies on Bloomberg.

METALS-Copper buckles under dollar strength, China worries
Fri Mar 19, 2010 3:24pm
* LME copper stocks down nearly 30,000 T since March 1

* Nickel stocks at lowest since late December


By Marcy Nicholson and Pratima Desai

NEW YORK/LONDON, March 19 (Reuters) - Copper came under pressure on Friday as the dollar rose and investors worried about demand from China, the world's largest consumer of industrial metals.

Copper for May delivery HGK0 on the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division reversed down 2.30 cents to close at $3.3725 per lb, moving from $3.3640 to $3.4110.

Benchmark copper CMCU3 on the London Metal Exchange ended at $7,435 a tonne from $7,486 at the close on Thursday. The metal used in power and construction is up about 20 percent since early February.

The euro fell and was headed for its worst week since January as traders fretted whether Greece will secure euro-zone aid to tackle its debt crisis, while worries about Britain's economy hit sterling. [USD/]

A major risk for industrial metals is the extent and timing of fiscal tightening in China, which is said to account for more than 30 percent of global copper demand -- estimated this year at above 18 million tonnes.

For the next leg up, we do need concerns about China to be alleviated," said Max Layton, analyst at Macquarie.

"For people taking a longer term view there will be opportunities to start accumulating on any dips triggered by macroeconomic weakness."

"Copper is developing a very clearly defined line of overhead resistance, comes in right around the $3.4250 area," said Sterling Smith, analyst for brokers Country Hedging Inc in Minnesota, referring to the May contract trading on NYMEX.

"With the strong dollar today, copper did find a little bit of selling pressure."

Analysts say the copper market is looking at signs of stronger economic growth in the United States, the world's largest economy, and translating that into increased demand for industrial metals.

"There is more confidence that the economy is going to recover, so demand will outweigh supply," said Eugen Weinberg, commodities analyst at Commerzbank.

STAINLESS IMPROVEMENT

Stocks of copper in London Metal Exchange warehouses also helped boost the metal. They have fallen about 30,000 tonnes since March 1 to 522,975 -- the lowest since the middle of January.

"We continue to expect the market to retest all-time highs at some stage this year," VTB Capital said in a note.

Three-month nickel CMNI3 hit $22,900 a tonne, the highest since March 4. It ended at $22,450 a tonne compared with $22,760 at the close on Thursday.

Stocks of nickel in LME warehouses are down 8,724 tonnes since early February to 157,752 tonnes, a level last seen at the end of last year. Stainless steel mills account for about two-thirds of global nickel demand.

"This shift in inventory dynamic was a clear signal that the nickel market was in deficit," Barclays Capital said in a note. "Decline in stocks has been accompanied by reports of improving production levels in the global stainless steel sector."

Consultants Brook Hunt told Reuters in an interview on Thursday that the nickel market this year could see a 10,000 tonne deficit. The nickel market this year is estimated at around 1.4 million tonnes. [ID:ID:nLDE62H12Q]

Industry consultants CRU Group expects the nickel market to see a deficit for the first time in four years. [ID:nLDE62H1BU]

Steel material zinc CMZN3 ended at $2,295 a tonne from $2,333, battery material lead CMPB3 at $2,200 a tonne $2,245 and aluminium CMAL3 at $2,258 a tonne from $2,276.

Tin CMSN3 closed at $17,650 a tonne from Thursday's last bid at $17,790.