< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
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In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

At the other end of Madagascar is Madagascar oil co'

Great Company

Do you hold SEY ?

aldwickk -
As you guess, I have held SEY for about 6 years and made nothing from them yet, but they probably would fit with AFR. It is probably wishful thinking on my part only.

You may know that MOIL is on shore, and they seem to have heavy oil and tar sands.
Some say it will cost "a lot" for MOIL to extract oil with steam etc, and they may need a wealthy partner with steam expertise.
MOIL is too risky for me at present, but the price is way down, and it should recover.

AFN could be the one to go for over 6 months. BP have problems and may be too big a Co. to make substantial share price gains. I think TNK partnership accounts for 35% of BP production so they may need to replace that perhaps eventually.

Shareholders revolt:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/9315087/Afren-shareholders-revolt-over-pay-for-the-third-year-running.html

Liberum note :
"The Kurdistan market does not look big enough to absorb growing oil production and, without exports, price pressure or quotas could deter investment. Ahead of firm agreements to enable exports, we have lowered our forecast Afren production, reduced our price target to 108p and brought our recommendation back to Hold.
Afren will start producing oil in Kurdistan later this year as the first of three phases of the Barda Rash development (Afren 60%) is completed. Gross production could increase to 125 mbd with further contributions from the Jebel Simrit discovery (Afren 20%).
There remain a series of disputes between Kurdistan and the federal Iraq Government, many related to the oil sector. In particular, Kurdistan has not received payments from the central authorities for its crude oil exports so they have been stopped. At present Kurdish oil production is being sold to local refiners but we believe the market is too small to absorb all the planned upstream capacity expansions. Kurdish producers need the export market to open or they may face quotas or weak local prices that will deter further investment.
A joint Turkey-Kurdistan plan appears to offer an export route and give the KRG control over cash distribution. However, the arrangements are almost certain to meet resistance from the Iraqi authorities and we see few reasons to assume exports will resume until there are firm contractual commitments in place. We now assume that Afren sells the initial production from Barda Rash into the domestic market but investment in the material phase 3 is postponed until exports resume. We continue to exclude any contribution from Jebel Simrit to our forecasts.
Our NAV has come back from 111p to 78p and our price target, based on top-down DCF analysis that incorporates a view on reinvestment performance, has fallen from 148p to 108p. It appears the share price has already discounted the marketing issues but with little upside, we have lowered our recommendation from Buy to HOLD."

Harry presumably this Liberum opinion applys equally to GKP?

Very tricky situation, but yes, all of the others are under review ( Genel, Petroceltic, Heritage, GKP). The problem seems to be convincing the Iraqi's (Kurds) to allow the pipeline to go ahead. Exxon has succeeded in placating the Kurds and has a multi-well drilling program in Iraq, but all of the others are either drilling or have drilled, but are stymied when it comes to exporting the gas/oil. Of course, if the licences are issued by the Iraqi's, then there is a good chance other explorers will enter the region and also that Sinopec may make a bid for GKP. It seems that it is better to invest in companies which also have other assets elsewhere for the moment, which AFR has.

Harry isn't the real underlying problem that Baghdad is afraid if they allow the Kurds to export oil they (the Kurds) will declare independence.However they will probably do that anyway as they become more and more frustrated.Whether this would result in a civil war is the big question.

given that today's iraq is an artificially constructed entity, it is an interesting question as to whether a conflict between kurdistan and mesopotamia (iraq) would constitute a civil war

cynic please don't "nitpick" with the exception of the obvious countries like Egypt most of the other "sandcastles" did not exist a century ago, don't bury your head in the sand and just recognise the way things are possibly going in Iraq.

jordan? iran? syria? lebanon? ....... i may be wrong, but i think it is iraq (and israel) that is the odd one out

anyway, will there be some sort of prolonged punch-up?
i guess much will depend on which external power pulls the most strings

cynic you omitted one of the most important Saudi Arabia founded in 1932. most of the others became independant after the french and british pulled out at the end of the second world war.

there is a suggestion that france may need to go to the IMF for a loan which would mean the british may have to help finance french workers pensions as they retire at 60, DC better be careful about our contributions to the IMF.

saudi, an agglomeration of assorted bedouin tribes, is something of an oddity as is uae ...... if it were not for oil, both would still be populated by nomadic tent-dwellers with pearl diving, fishing and a bit of short-sea trading being the primary occupations of those in the small coastal settlements - or possibly piracy!

At the moment as Kurdistan are still fulfilling their own oil and gas requirements,
there is no urgency to sort out exports.
Once local requirements satisfied, the pressure will be on to export.
Perhaps this will happen by end of 2012 ?, and both Kurds and Iraqies should want
foreign currency.
Can the Kurds not just bye pass Central Govt. as they have the pipeline I think.
Would the Central Govt. invade Kurdistan = probably not, as long as Kurdistan pay
something to Cent. Govt.

All will be well eventually = What do you think

i agree though there will be much sabre-rattling along the way

When the oil does start pumping, Iraq and Kurdistan will make a fortune!....and will be able at long last to build those badly needed hospitals, schools, and repair the damaged infrastructure.....

.

oh yawn yawn yawn .... don't be such a pratt or just join the gaza thread

.

I did not agree with the Iraq invasion at that time....Saddam Hussain could have been dealt with in a better way......destroying everything was stupid and just makes enemies of the local population.....a country like Iraq....how shall I put it need a good dictator...(if there is such a word) to keep everybody in line as so to speak...throughout history, Iraq and Mesopotamia has been a troubled place but also a prosperous place at times when the right person has governed it...they need a good leader to emerge that will be fair to all...perhaps one day such a man or woman will come along....