The tiny Irish stock on the brink of landing 'the first' post-sanction oil deal in Iraq. Ref 'Fleet Street Letter' 12-04-04..

geoff, it happened about 20 mins ago. I had to create a new list. Seems ok now.

geoff,
mine`s back now, i just have to put the stocks back in again. must be santa`s reindeer mucking up the system!.
dexter

wilbs,

many thanks for reply .. apologies for the hassle. am looking into it.

g

No problem geoff. Just gotta remember all the stocks I had listed!

wilbs

wilbs - sorry again ... and hope any xmas festivities haven't impared your memory.

g

They have not impared my memory as yet but im sure by 8pm tonight I wont even be able to remember my name! (hopefully).

wilbs - its good to have goals in life ;)

could you please try closing down your stockwatch and opening up again .. as a tester?

g

Ive done it twice geoff and everything is ok.

wilbs

wilbs - is your old watchlist back?

g

No, I deleted it cos there was nothing on it and it wouldnt let me enter any epics in.

wilbs

wilbs, ok .. thanks for that.

good luck and happy xmas.

g

Thanks geoff, hope you have a good one too.

wilbs

Merry christmas and a happy new year to all. Good luck in 2005.

wilbs

Happy holidays all - it'll be the most nailbiting Christmas I've ever had - that's for sure! See you next week.
love
angel

merry christmas to one and all, nice to have a few days break and RELAX.

eric, hope your wife is on the road to recovery, have a peaceful time and hope to have you back on board when you return to the UK.

dexter

Merry Xmas to you all, keep up the good posting Tokyo and dexter01 - u always provide an interesting read. I have held on to my small pot of pet all through this recent rollercoaster and am hoping for some decent news in jan!

ct.

Hello folk! Notice that the 'last post' (did I really say that?)was four hours ago but its early morning here in Whistler. Thanks a lot, Dexter, watcher and others, for your kind thoughts re Mary. Have collected her from the hospital and she is up here recovering - what better place? The Canadian hospital was absolutely first class, clean (!) with really caring staff. Thankful the incident (probably passing of a gall stone) happened shortly after we arrived in vancouver.

Fascinating read as I've tried to get up to date. Great news that Tokyo and Dexter are back in. I'll add my two-pennyworth.

Re the first two contracts: one gone, one still in play. I had felt for a while that it was actually down to price and this is more or less confirmed. Interesting that too close to call between two companies but that three allowed to bid. Were PET one of the two or the third? If the former, price reduction needed may be not that much. If the latter, quite significant that they have been allowed back in (my intuition is that they are the third: would they put Ivanhoe up the pecking order? earlier indication that PET bid may have been more like $250M). I actually feel that JT and DH have played it pretty well and obviously have excellent contacts. Having said that, they are Irish (sorry Livvy!) and their strength in forming relationships is also their weakness in talking too much! The problem will be in setting the bid. From an earlier post identified with DH, they have added quite a large risk element. Despite continued atrocities, they could take the reasonable view that Iraq will settle down after the election. What would be market reaction to PET buying the business? Probably still positive because they will have 'arrived'. However, probably nothing like #3 (sorry no pounds here!).

Re prospects for PET: DH made reference to positive progress in Iraq this year. I think we should take that at face value. Whether or not they get the second contract, it is a reasonable assumption that they will pick up business. Once things have settled down, Block 6 should be renegotiated (not really clear about possible negative connotation re Russia and France - if they do not feel they should honour commitments to them, then why PET? or will IOM just wait for the US to go!). I like the 'momentum' (not technical use of term) with PET, taking into account Jordan and Syria. Its their positioning in the emerging markets. Jordan is actually very significant, whether or not the results are positive - given the link with Iraq seams, why not positive? It seems to me that PET are as good a play as any.

Re investment view: I'm still in as, possibly fortunately, sleeping when markets open! I predict a roller-coaster ride. The advantage of being right on top of it is quick response to news. The disadvantage of being right on top of it is too quick response to news! Some active traders will win lots, others will lose lots. I will probably just continue to sit with my bottom on my hands!

Happy Christmas all and lom in 2005 for PET-friends! lol!

Eric

Someone has to get out more, posting on Xmas day. Happy Xmas all, here's to the new year.
Chris

Marvellous snow-covered Christmas here in Whistler so I thought I would do a really nice, positive post for all my PET friends. Adding to my post 2129:

1. Suba-Luhais is now shown as two separate contracts with 6 and 4 bidders respectively. Presumably PET will be in for both. That means that they are still in for three contracts to be awarded this year, presumably subject to contract. This raises the odds on a PET win quite significantly - certainly to 1 in 2.

2. Looking at the Hemrin contract again, the surprise is Ivanhoe, quoted of NASDAQ. There would seem to be two possible interpretations. Firstly, as I postulated above, Ivanhoe were too close to call with OGI, with PET being added to the frame. Alternatively, PET just missed out and Ivanhoe have been added. This would make sense if, as you could feel could well happen, there had been US pressure to add a US player to the shortlist.

3. My main argument though is that investors have been too distracted by the short-term. Whether or not PET pick up one of these three contracts, I believe that PET are well-established as a player in Iraq: Horgan's comments re the achievements of 2004; Jordan presumably have appointed PET because they are an accepted player in Iraq. Thus the price may well jump up and down with short-term situations. However, take a look to the end of the year. Who would be wise to bet against PET making significant progress? Thus I believe they are an excellent each way bet: short-term wins and an expanding medium-term business. Remember jeremy lacey's comment re the next Cairn?

Having missed the chance to exit before the crash, there are two possible approaches: (a) lock the investment away for six months to a year or (b) trade
the share actively as the price inevitable swings - I think I will be 50/50. Most important is to be in as an investor!

Enjoy the festivities and enjoy PET into the New Year!

Eric