a moneyam competitor

!

hey money bags hows the euor short

kenmore? not sure what stock this is moonblue.

Does anybody know where I can find a chart of the S&P overnight fair value futures traded on Globex. Cheers.

Kenmare KMR

its ok moon thanks to hooch coochy mainly. still 25p in total. was i think 70 up today I like them retrns %wise. If i was a good trader then i'd have banked today..however if it is a bounce in a bigger downtrend then i don't trust myself to get in atthe correct time, miss it or stop out. so tho its boring..leaving it for the timebeing.

Team Group 6: The Bucket Shop Team 6/1 Funds Available 0.09 Position 8
Stock Name Buy @ p Sell @ p Holdings Invested Current value Prof / loss
1 Virotec International NPV 27.5 25 727274 200,000.35 181,818.50 -18,181.85
2 Fayrewood 138 136 144927 199,999.26 197,100.72 -2,898.54
3 BAA 560 560 35714 199,998.40 199,998.40 0.00
4 Aquarius Platinum 228 232 87720 200,001.60 203,510.40 3,508.80
5 Kenmare Resources 16.5 15.5 1212123 200,000.30 187,879.07 -12,121.23
6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
8 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
9 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
10 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total Invested= 999,999.91 Total prof/loss -29,692.82
Team Players: moregas TC, mick p, hijeff, dickster, moonblue, Banked Funds 1,000,000.00
hedge66, kevinmcm, ps499 Team Worth 970,307.18

vti worries me

moonie - have you given up on the threads?

well sort of choc..its not got much intrest has it

Well I've been following it!
It'd be a shame if you stop, moonie - you put a lot of effort into it. People are away too, y'know.

yeh i know but all things must pass

Sometimes the only way to win is to surrender

Hmm - I s'pose there is logic - but to whom?
At least you weren't getting any aggro here?

no im not but i dont trade shares or indicies just forex..
and i dont have time to post on those as it moves very fast..so im left with the question ...whats the point?

Dear Subscriber,

With just 12 weeks between now and the presidential election, sifting through the political spin to figure out what's really going on in the economy is going to be tougher by the day.

Politicians will point fingers for bad numbers and take credit for good ones.

Their economic experts will invent new theories, omit facts, and ignore the obvious.

Even so-called "objective" analysts will often have a hidden agenda.

Last night, for example, one political commentator posing as "independent and unbiased" was actually pushing a pro-Kerry agenda. Another was obviously pro-Bush. Their acrobatics to twist the facts about the economy were so swift it made my head spin.

In the heat of the debate, neither the Democrats nor the Republicans seem to see what's really going on.

Neither has recognized that they are fellow passengers on a single vessel, driven by undercurrents that are now beyond their control ..


Undercurrent #1
The greatest consumer
squeeze in half a century!

Consider the plight of most American families right now:

* They have already spent their tax-cut money ...

* They can't borrow any more on their homes ...

* Their prospects for new jobs are grim; and for higher paying jobs, even grimmer ...

* They're dishing out up to $50 per week just to fill up a single tank of gas; and ..

* They're swimming in debt.

So they're beginning to cut back, throttling down the single largest engine driving the economic recovery.

Important: This consumer squeeze didn't begin under Bush. Nor is it going to be resolved simply by a change of the guard. The squeeze is the natural consequence of a multi-decade borrowing-and-spending binge that has finally reached a dead end.


Undercurrent #2
The greatest investor
disappointment in decades!

Ever since the stock market hit rock bottom in late 2002, investors have harbored fervent hopes for a full recovery back to the market's all-time highs or beyond. But now, nearly one year and ten months later, it looks like those hopes are being dashed.

The Dow Jones Industrials dove decisively below 10,000 on Thursday, busted to brand new lows for the year on Friday, and kept on falling right up until the closing bell.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite fell even more sharply, and both are now trading at around the same level as they did in early 1998!

In other words, if you had bought the average S&P or Nasdaq stock in the first months of 1998, and you had held on faithfully to your shares for more than six long years, all you'd have to show for your patience right now is a big fat zero.

But you'd be among the lucky ones: Investors who bought the average S&P stock in early 2000 are now down to about 66 cents on the dollar; and those who bought the average Nasdaq stocks are down to a meager 33 cents on the dollar, despite the long market rise of 2003.

Historians of the future will debate endlessly whether the first half of the decade brought us two bear markets separated by a one-year bull ... or one single bear market interrupted by a one-year rally.

But that's of little significance right now. In this political season, the key point to recognize is that the market's malaise did not originate in the current administration. Nor will it be easily overcome by the next. It is the natural outcome of speculative excesses that have been piling up for many years and have yet to be unraveled.


Undercurrent #3
No more trump cards!

The last time the market and the economy were beginning to sink like this, President Bush still had two trump cards tax cuts and rate cuts. He played them both. And he rescued the economy from the jaws of disaster.

But now the recovery cycle is ending, and there's little or nothing the government can do about it:

* No matter how weak the economy may be the Fed is committed to raising short-term interest rates not lowering them. Tomorrow, they're going to hike the Fed Funds rate to 1.5% ... and by early next year, they'll probably jack it up to 2% or more.

* No matter which party controls Congress, the bulging federal budget deficit makes more tax cuts politically impossible.

* And regardless of who wins the White House, there are no more trump cards.

If Bush wins, he will likely pursue a similar economic agenda, with little or nothing that is substantially new enough to encourage investors. And if Kerry wins, he will likely restore some portion of the dividend taxes or capital gains taxes, spooking stock investors even more.


Undercurrent #4
Inflation

Just because the economy is weakening doesn't necessarily mean inflation is receding. Quite to the contrary, the single most powerful driver of price inflation oil and energy is still surging.

And if you think the political spin on other economic numbers is bad, wait till you see the spin on inflation.

* Economists pooh-pooh energy price hikes simply by relegating it to a category of items which are not part of the "core" inflation.

* Both political candidates are virtually silent on the subject.

* And even Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan has been busily trying to convince the world that inflation is not a concern.

The reality: Consumer price inflation this year is still running at an annual rate of between 4 and 5 percent, or up to FOUR times higher than the current level of short-term interest rates. This has multiple implications ...

First, it means that inflation is bound to continue. That's almost invariably what happens when interest rates are far lower than inflation.

Second, interest rates are bound to rise further despite the weakening economy. Indeed, it's not until interest rates catch up with inflation and even exceed it that you're likely to see inflation tamed and interest rates recede significantly.

Third, the dollar is bound to resume its decline. Foreign investors are already looking for the nearest exit door.

Fourth, investments that are driven higher by inflation gold, energy and natural resources should continue to rise.

But no matter what the final outcome, clearly, the battle against price instability either deflation or inflation did not begin under Bush. Nor will it end in the next four years. It is the culmination of decades of money and credit excesses that are just now coming to a head.

Date 19/8/2004 Source AFX-UK Related Stories N/A
Time 17:32





CHICAGO (AFX) -- An already weaker dollar fell in response to a reported
slowdown in the factory-sector expansion for the Philadelphia area. The Philly
Fed's activity index fell to 28.5 in August from 36.1 in July. Despite the
decline, this is the fifteenth month in a row the index has been above zero,
which indicates overall economic expansion, if at a slower rate. Economists were
expecting the index to slip to 31.7 in August. Both the bond and currency
markets were braced for an even lower reading, analysts said. The dollar was up
0.3 percent on the day against the euro, with the euro quoted at $1.2359 in
recent trading. It briefly reached $1.2364 just after the report. The greenback
was off 0.1 percent against the Japanese yen, at 109.32 yen per dollar.
This story was supplied by CBSMarketWatch. For further information see
www.cbsmarketwatch.com.

http://www.celebpoker.com/nick_gaming.html

Indexes Close Change
DJI 10110.10 69.30
S&P 500 1098.35 7.12
S&P 100 536.04 2.94
NSDQ 100 1366.73 13.49
Nasdaq Comp 1838.00 18.20
XAU 95.82 1.80
Dollar IDX 88.09 0.30
Closing prices for 8/20/2004
Futures Close Change
SEP DJI 10110.00 67.00
SEP S&P 1098.70 7.40
SEP NSDQ 1367.50 12.00
SEP Bonds 111^03 -0^03
SEP Dollar 88.23 0.41
DEC Gold 415.50 6.20
SEP Silver 687.0 5.0
SEP Notes 112.72 -0.17
Closing prices for 8/20/2004


Update for Friday, August 20, 2004; 5:25 PM, Eastern.


**********************************************
**********************************************




It was an up week across-the-board for stocks, as the major indexes closed up five out of the past six days. The NASDAQ led the charge, finishing up 4.6 percent for the week, followed by the S&P up 3.1 percent, while the Dow gained 2.9 percent. Of the wide-ranging indicators that we look at each day, the one glaring stat that jumps out at us is the markets volume. It remains anemic. Big Board volume was 1.2 billion shares traded today, 10 percent below the three-month daily average. NASDAQ volume was not much better, totaling 1.32 billion shares traded. A rally with little conviction in the form of volume places the advance firmly in the camp of a bear market rally, which is consistent with our interpretation of the Elliott wave pattern.

The question before us tonight is this: is the bear market rally over? Answer: not yet. My guess is that the major indexes are probably three quarters of the way through the rally, but based on our momentum work, there likely remains further upside potential before a top. First, lets take a look at the pattern.




Todays close of 10,110.10 in the [Dow Industrials] and 1098.35 in the [S&P 500], carries each index to the maximum retracement levels we cited in Monday and Wednesdays Update. Each level represents the 78.6% retracement of the decline from the August 2 high, as seen in the above chart of the Dow. The rally counts well as an upward correction, as each of the major waves since Fridays low has overlapped. And there is even a price relationship between each correction, which is sometimes seen in corrective waves. The pattern was a double zigzag up to
Yesterdays 10,083 high. Todays push above this high turns the pattern into a potential triple zigzag (see EWP, p. 42). Wave a of the third zigzag is nearing completion, which should lead to wave b down and then wave c back up to new recovery highs.




Could todays high be a top, after all prices stopped right at the maximum retracement allowed for? Sure it could, but the odds are not strong. Of the various momentum gauges we constantly examine, from smoothed averages to high-low data, to the percent of stocks above their averages, nearly all are still rising from oversold levels, which does not support a significant top right here. One of the easiest ways to illustrate this for you is to update the above chart from Wednesday showing a very simple Relative Strength index. The index is still rising, having just pushed above the 50% level. Moreover, as we noted at the top of these pages, the NASDAQ indexes led this weeks rally. Typically the higher-beta indexes will be laggards at or near the high, while the blue-chips charge ahead. So even though our maximum retracement levels have not been violated, odds favor that they will be and that a larger bounce is indeed unfolding.




S&P 500 only breadth was positive today, as was NYSE breadth, but as the chart shows, there is now a series of three declining breadth peaks against three higher price highs. Each big up day this week, Monday, Wednesday and Friday, occurred on slightly weaker upside breadth, a sign of a slowing uptrend. While this slowing is not fatal to the advance, it does suggest that a near-term pullback is approaching, likely sometime early next week (possibly after a brief rally Monday morning). It should last a day or so, which will likely coincide with a b wave decline, and lead to another push higher after it completes. Support in the Dow runs from 10,040 to 10,075, while support in the S&P is 1091-1095. As of todays close, the Dow would have to come under 9950 and the S&P under 1080 in order for the odds to significantly increase that the immediately rally is over and another leg down had begun.

The next area of resistance for the S&P is the confluence of the 50- and 200-day moving averages that congregate between Fibonacci resistance. This area is 1103-1113. The approximate equivalent area in the Dow is 10,180-10,250. Odds favor that these areas will be tested prior to a top.




The [NASDAQ] indexes are still a bit shy of their respective maximum retracement levels cited Wednesday, but they should hit them (and in all likelihood exceed them) before the near-term uptrend ends. For the 100 cash index this level is 1386 and for the Composite it is 1863. Similar to the Dows Relative Strength index, the NASDAQs too is still rising and beneath an area that we would expect a top to form. If the broad indexes pullback early next week, the 100 cash index has support in the 1355-1360 area, while the Composite has support at 1822-1830. It would take a close beneath 1335 in the 100 cash index and 1795 in the Composite to increase the odds to probable that the rally from last Friday is over and the near-term bear trend is back on track.

[Bottom Line]: The market remains in a bear market bounce, which does not appear complete. Some time early next week a pullback should develop, but that should be followed by another up leg to new recovery highs (above todays highs). The entire advance is probably three quarter or more complete, but the ultimate high does not appear at hand just yet.






[September Notes] and [September Bonds] remain stalled at their respective 50% and 61.8% retracement levels (see above chart). Bullish sentiment has now carried the 10-day DSI index for bonds to 81.5%, setting the market up for the near-term reversal that we are forecasting. Also note in our second chart displaying the upward momentum of the bond rally, the oscillator is one day away from declining into negative territory, which would be further evidence that a one-to-two point decline is at hand. In addition, commercial hedgers have been moving into a deeper net-short position at an aggressive clip. At the end of June hedgers held 82,350 net long contracts. As of last week they had moved to a net short position of 27,136 contracts, the largest net short position since the wave (2) high on March 24. If notes are able to come under 112^00 (4.32%) and bonds under 110^02 (5.09%), both basis the September contract, it would be a signal that the decline is underway. From a larger perspective, nearly all of the sub-indexes, GNMAs, Junk, Emerging debt, etc remain in short-term up trends, which suggests that there remains some support beneath the rise from the May-June lows. So we cannot say with certainty that our forecasted decline is the start of wave 3 of (3), but we will look for confirming signs as the near-term sell-off progresses.




Todays rally in the [U.S. Dollar Index] was enough to create a bullish weekly key reversal in the index, but just barely. A more forceful signal would have been registered with a wider range this week. Still, the bounce in prices occurred from a low of 87.66, which was just above the trendline support that we have been referencing all week. This trendline crosses through 87.57 on Monday. While it is far too soon to forecast with any degree of conviction that the dollar index is starting the next leg of advance, we can note that bullish sentiment continues to shrink, which is a net positive for our overall bullish view. In order for our conviction to move to the strong category that the next leg of rally has started, the index must rally in a clear impulse pattern that carries above 89.29. Doing so would be a solid bullish sign and indicate that a multi-week rally was underway. We will remain patient until then. The key level for the near-term bullish case remains the 87.00 low of July 19. The index should not come under this low or a more complicated pattern would be unfolding prior to the next leg up in Primary wave 2 (circle).




Since reaching a high of 1.2385 in the early hours of this week, the [Euro] has made no net progress, even pulling back to a low of 1.2281 this morning. Like the dollar, it is much too soon to say that a downward reversal has occurred here. Instead, we continue to remain patient and wait for a clear impulsive decline that draws prices beneath the 1.2178 low of August 13. Doing so would allow us to state with confidence that the next leg down in the larger downtrend was underway. As before, if the Euro pushes above the July 19 high (1.2463) then it means a more complex upward move is unfolding from the April 26 low (1.1761).




The [XAU] rallied above the 91.90 high of July 9, which negates the near-term wave patterns we were discussing. It appears that the advance from the May 10 low (76.79) is tracing out an A-triangle B-C upward correction, but it is not clear how this correction fits into the larger picture. Prices have pushed to a resistance level of 96.00, which may repel the advance. But there is an equal chance that the index will work its way up to the next cluster of resistance in the 98-100 area prior to topping. As soon as our confidence in the XAUs short-term potential returns, we will become more specific in our forecast.






Yesterday [December Gold] closed above $407.10, indicating that prices were on their way back to the $412.50 high of July 8, and just beyond. Todays rally carried the December contract to an intraday high of $416.80, with a close of $415.50. Tonight is a good time to review the scenery for gold so that we are all clear about our forecast. The most important piece of information we know is that the rally from the $375 low (May 10) is NOT an impulse wave. We have no doubts about this. Thus, even though the upward corrective pattern is complex and has carried back up, because it is not an impulse wave it must be completely retraced once it is complete. We know that bullish sentiment remains far closer to a top than a bottom. For instance, the 10-day Daily Sentiment index is at 71.9% bulls, whereas at the May 10 low it was at just 9.7% bulls. The April 1st peak was accompanied by a 10-day DSI of 80.4% and before that the January high occurred against a DSI of 88.3%. We know that commercial hedgers still hold a relatively large net-short position of 78,343 contracts. This is not as large as the record short 196,307 contracts held at the April high, but it is also far from the typical net-long positions held at significant lows. We know that various momentum oscillators are at or near overbought territory, but still rising (see above), which suggests there may be a bit more rally potential left over the coming days. Basis the December contract, the 78.6% retracement of wave (1) down is $423.40 and a chart gap was left at the close of trading on April 12 at $424.20. This range, $423.40-$424.20, is the next resistance cluster. Gold may top earlier, but the upward momentum of the rise suggests we should at least allow for a run toward this resistance cluster prior to a wave (2) top. Closing back under $400 would be the initial signal that the rally top was in.




[September Silver] remains in wave (2) up, which pushed to $7.01 on an intraday basis today. The upward correction is complex, with many various acceptable ways to interpret the near term subdivisions. One way considers the rise from the July 28 low of $6.11 as a fifth wave ending diagonal triangle (see EWP, p. 36). If so, prices should have one more down-up sequence ahead that carries silver closer toward $7.23-$7.26, which includes the 61.8% retracement of the wave (1) decline. The crucial level for this pattern is $6.46, the August 11 low. A break there would negate the ending diagonal and raise the odds considerably that wave (2) up was over.

Have a great weekend!

Next Update: Monday, August 23, 2004
Steven Hochberg, Editor.

That was a bit laaarge, moonie