ptholden
- 09 Jul 2007 23:14
I often find all manner of reference to Technical Analysis whilst reading threads, questioning certain elements, asking for advice on indicators and also requesting advice on a stock and whether it's a good time to buy, sell, hold or remain indifferent. I am the first to admit that my own TA is still in its infancy, but I do spend time on expanding my knowledge (hopefully in the right direction!).
Rather than having to ask a TA question on a particular thread, perhaps this thread could be used as a forum for TA queries and become a knowledge base. Just a thought, if there is little or no interest, the thread will sink without trace and that will be the end of that. I will personally add a few snippets to help those with less knowledge (if that's possible) to keep things rolling. There is a danger that the thread will receive countless requests for opinions on a variety of stocks and there is only so much I can do alone, therefore I would more than welcome input from other posters, no matter how rudimentary they believe their own knowledge to be, hopefully some real experts will take the time to contribute.
fliper
- 26 Jul 2007 16:08
- 214 of 504
PTH , good call on tan , whats the story on tmc ?
maggiebt4
- 26 Jul 2007 16:24
- 215 of 504
Thanks for the very good advice which I am more that happy to recieve unfortunately my head was so far into the sand I've only just read it. Am suffering a loss at moment will just have to sit tight. Am hoping sp will find support around 589 but doesn't look like it. Don't think I'll be in and out in 14 days this time :o(
ptholden
- 26 Jul 2007 17:47
- 216 of 504
maggie you never know. Going to have a look at FTSE and DOW charts later and see where this is going to stop, well, at least attempt an uneducated guess :))
Neil, I'll have a look at TMC for you, but the whole market is skewed now with this sell off and I don't think it''s over yet. I agree with Big Al's post on the Traders Thread, a lot of small stuff will be getting sold now especially if panic sets in.
pth
cynic
- 26 Jul 2007 18:13
- 217 of 504
PT .... back again; loadsa trouble with site - for me at least, but now seems sorted
from memory, FTSE is due correction and DOW, though it never reachd its true target of 14400, could easily suffer a fall of (a further) 1000 without breaking the uptrend
ptholden
- 26 Jul 2007 19:11
- 218 of 504
Welcome back Richard, you didn't miss much LoL
TMC for Fliper
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Neil, for clarity I have omitted some of the up trendlines that TMC has fallen through during the sell off. What you can see is that the stock is firmly entrenched in a bearish channel, so I wouldn't even condsider a buy until that changes.
The upper of the two trendlines was firmly breached today and the only one left is the lower which will offer support at 200p. There is also tentative support where it stopped today, but judging from the current overall state of the markets I wouldn't put too much faith in this. RSI and MACD both heading South with no indication of a change in sentiment.
Overall I think 200p is a distinct possibility.
pth
maddoctor
- 26 Jul 2007 19:12
- 219 of 504
wot i am waiting for
cynic
- 26 Jul 2007 19:48
- 220 of 504
outlook for tomorrow is dire ..... DOW now down 400!!
bloodbath is far more than a racing certainty and there will be massive forced sales, both for margin and computer generated.
it is at times like this that the minnows get totally hammered, and indeed become almost unsaleable.
i am glad i am short of at least one stock, though i am sorry for the many "friends" who are long.
even more glad that i liquidated plenty over the last couple of weeks so now have reasonable fire-power as and when the blood-letting looks to have run its course
ptholden
- 26 Jul 2007 19:52
- 221 of 504
UKX
First off, I don't trade the Indices so this is just my stab at where this is going, take it with a very large pinch of salt!
The FTSE100 has been in a classic uptrend since the beginning of 2003 and I guess all good things come to an end. The falls over the last few days have taken the FTSE to the bottom of the channel, question is will it find support? No idea is the honest idea, but if it doesn't hold here then I can see another 300 pt fall. I have drawn a long term trendline from the high of 2000 to the most recent high this year. I have also attempted to find a channel from which a support level may be estimated. This is the lower long term trendline which would provide support at 5986. Probably a load of rubbish but if anywhere near correct, it doesnt look good for the immediate future.
pth
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cynic
- 26 Jul 2007 19:57
- 222 of 504
FTSE ..... i think we have rather missed the boat with shorting positon being about 300 points higher ...... 6000 def on the cards
ptholden
- 26 Jul 2007 20:16
- 223 of 504
So you can still short it then :) Although FTSE currently being called down 80 pts for tomorrow by IG. Onto the DOW.
Hasn't closed yet but as I type, at 13400 (ish), today's fall isn't shown on the above chart. Seems to have bounced off the middle trendline, well pierced it and recovered. Wouldn't be surprised if 12800 is on the cards which will no doubt drag our own markets down with it. Seems to reinforce 6000 or even my own guesstimate of 5900 is realistic.
pth
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ptholden
- 26 Jul 2007 22:11
- 224 of 504
Despite the fall on the DOW today, wondering if we might see something of a bounce in our own markets? Most of the stocks I have been following are sitting on long term support.............................I wonder??
garfeebloke
- 27 Jul 2007 00:55
- 225 of 504
PT I hear you, but surely if you're a chartist, you're a chartist. I have friends who are ex FOREX and friends who are the other side of the coin, but they still preach the same mantra when it comes to charts. Yet they all claim to know nothing about the other market. Surely a chartist is, just that??
garfeebloke
- 27 Jul 2007 01:01
- 226 of 504
Also, for what it's worth, I've just gone long FTSE and cable. Very risky, I know, but with tight stops and Cynic, I hear your point on cable, but it's in an uptrend within an uptrend right now and what the heck. Sorry PT, I know we shouldn't talk cable here. Good luck guys, it's cost me with CSR this week, even with trailing stops. Stupidly, I tried to guess the bottom. Duh!
cynic
- 27 Jul 2007 08:16
- 227 of 504
cable is as valid here as anywhere ..... i too am long, but 20470 having given way, i wonder if it was the wrong move ...... only did for half the stake when i (successfully) shorted, so you can tell how confident i was at the time!
cynic
- 27 Jul 2007 08:44
- 228 of 504
if you are desperate to buy, then of the stocks i follow, TAN and DOO both look to be at interesting levels, especially the former, though i have not looked at the charts
fliper
- 27 Jul 2007 08:50
- 229 of 504
Thanks PTH , lots of bargins when the market turns around .
ptholden
- 27 Jul 2007 18:52
- 230 of 504
Richard, Cable isn't valid here unless you are talking about the TA aspects, so bog off :)
Have been out all day so missed all of the fun. I see there are a fair few congratualtion being passed on various threads re buying at good prices. Can't help thinking that may all be a bit premature. Just going to watch now, wait for things to settle down and if I miss the bottom, so what, there are always opportunities to make a few bob whichever way the market is going.
Garfee, although charting is charting and is applicable to any financial instrument, it's not the full story. Often when trading currencies for example and everything is screaming short or long the real experts say that the bottom or top is still some way off. They have a 'feel' for the market, it isn't always clearcut. Hence my statement that I am not an expert on the indicies and to be honest I'm a long way from being an expert on stocks ;))
pth
cynic
- 27 Jul 2007 18:55
- 231 of 504
you vicious old queen (lol!)!!!!
not my fault there are no charts on here for forex trading ...... shame Greyhound has gone into hiding, but hope he was not too burnt by calling $ totally wrong
ptholden
- 27 Jul 2007 19:08
- 232 of 504
He wouldn't be the first and he won't be the last, I'm always doing it :S
There is a FX thread in the Traders Room or you could always do summat useful and start one in here :))
cynic
- 27 Jul 2007 19:17
- 233 of 504
used to look at that, but got bored with it ...... in truth, very rarely trade currency, and then only Cable though used to do or $ to Rand when we were doing a lot of biz in SA ..... the interesting Cable chart was the one my good pal did, but that is uncopyable ..... basically it's a view stretching over 20 years, but predicted, with various peaks and troughs that $ would trough(!!) at 20700 .... it never quite reached that, but was close enough for me to short - i.e. gamble on $ strengthening ...... shame i did not just stay with it, as it is now <20300 and could easily go to 20000 or even a little lower .... there should have been quite good support between 20500 and 20470, but there was scarcely a pause there