Why are we again at 10.5p bid?

It doesn't add up...

Good Results + Strong buying pre results + Christmas online buying soon = Price drop

Then again some companies that have debt for equity hanging in the balance, poor results and bankruptcy around the corner and they go up!

Why sell now at a loss?

Wont that be a kick in the teeth when we see 13.5p 14p again!

Best of luck all.

Douggie......looking for a 10% rise tomorrow

A broker target price of 31p was set many many moons ago, since then we have signed countless new contracts and the aussie fuel business is doing great.
+ there's rumours of new contract wins

The current 34p looks so undervalued IMHO.

Headline news in the US:

"Federated agreed to buy rival May for $11 billion in a deal that would combine famous store brands such as Bloomingdale's, Macy's and Marshall Field's."

That will make for a good deal of stores across the US on the level of Walmart.

I assume that RTD's technology will be rolled out over the new stores too.

Looks like excellent news to me.

Interesting day tomorrow. I'm half expecting a slight retrace maybe by as much as 10% over the coming week. After then the the good news will sink in, including the wide ranging effect of deals in the US such as the one above and we'll see that steady climb towards the first major hurdle of 1.

It all depends on what the value of the rumoured 3 news contracts is. Good news on this along with great results will send RTD soaring up.

FRED helloooooooo fred you gone quiet you sold out?can't blame you if you did ;-/

No still holding about 200K. Sold a tranche some months ago which I had held from 5p. I think there is still a long way up for this share to go. Intend to wait for it.

I do hope to-morrow is a good day!! Same goes for SEO and BPRG.

Well the results look good - but ws this already in the price - or was this better than expectation ?

B

Well - I did not have to wait long for my answer - down 7.5% alreday ? - Why ? - anyone any comment please
B

;-/

Morning all

I think the initial market sentiment reacts my views that the rsults were good but not that good - the recent share price appreciation had priced in something special. I think that there were no new contracts that we didnt know about and that eps was at the bottom end of what most of us were expecting to see. Short term i think this may well suffer but the long term story is still very positive, with reference to potential acquisitions to grow the business.



i sold 2/3 of my holding at 33p this am, will buy them back at some stage once the dust has settled, still holding a fair sized chunk


Will do some more reading and some calcs and will post later

Thanks Fundy - look forward to your analysis

Thanks Fund.

fool that I am I loyaly held........AGAIN! will I ever learn ;-/

Don't doubt they will return to 37p+ but what a wasted oportunity
does it show I'm not happy :-[ ?????????????

Douggie

fully agree with you - they will see these levels (and a lot higher) but imo it may be a while away - seems the buyers have appeared at 30p and it is bouncing back a bit - be interesting to see if there is a reaction mid morning to the analysts meeting

Steve tell me if i am dreaming but in the times or express last week there was an article about rtd,and it said that with the new chip & pin system that there time my be short lived.

Whats your view and is this there main product in the fraud system,
No position

ps email on the way.

The screen looks very blue at the moment with some reasonable large buys. Douggie if you hold I think you will be smiling in the next few months. At the moment the city seem to want a stream of gold as well as blood before accepting good results.

DD

RTD used to be mainly positioned in the card present system which has now been superceded by chip n pin and they are effectively slowly exiting this marketplace. However, there main anti fraud product is now in the card not present marketplace - ie telephone/online orders as well as a new anti fraud cheque process. In addition to this they have the cash cow business of the fuel card business in Australia.

Nice 1 steve,i will be watching this may have a punt,lol all holders.

dave hope you mean lots of luck not laugh out loud!!!!!

you have mail

Good support today folks given that the results were good, as fundy says, but not earth shattering.

I make it 45% buys and 55% sells right now.

Medium and Long term we're all onto a winner.

Douggie - you should forget about trying to short-term trade RTD and keep them as a long term growth stock hold because that's where you're going to make the real 's, there are lots more trading opportunities out there, and it'll help keep your blood pressure down lol!

Been through the rsults a few times now and here are my views:


Key P&L figures
Turnover up 5% to 31.7m
Op Profit (pre exceptionals etc) up 24% to 7.4m
Ammortisation down 5% to 1.4m
Exceptionals down 54% to 0.5m
Op profit (post exceptionals) up 69% to 5.7m
Interest down 24% to 0.3m
PBT up 74% to 5.1m
Tax up 36% to 2.1m
Profit up 115% to 3.1m
Basic EPS 1.06p - pe of 29ish
Adjusted EPS of 1.71p - pe of 18ish

Key balance sheet/cash flow
total net assets increased 14%
cash inflow decreased though appears to be a timing issue (appears to be driven by higher debtors figures)


Business breakdown:
Fuel card:
turnover up 10% to 14.0m
op profit up 31% to 6.8m

Antifraud:
turnover up 2% to 16.2m
op profit up 9% to 1.5m

Consulting:
turnover down 10% to 1.6m
op profit gone from break even to loss making


Overall these are a solid set of results, the fuel card business performance is very positive, helped by the current oil price but also demonstrating good organic growth both through new contracts and increased volumes. The consultancy performance is disappointing as i would have liked to see continued growth and sustainable profitability in this area. The fraud business figures to me are slightly disappointing - i was expecting to see greater growth in both turnover and profit (admittedly there is an adverse exchange rate effect and also the new contracts are not yet contributing). This business apeears to have gross margins of approx 69% of turnover so there still appears to be a high element of below the line costs, giving an op profit of only 9% of turnover

Just been trying to extrapolate these results (back of a fag packet job)forward to this time next year based on the following assumptions (best conservative guess)

fuel business grows by 10%
cnp turnover increases 10% assume 50% goes straight to bottom line
cp turnover decreases 20%
consultancy business breaks even

This arrives at the following:

Turnover 33.6m
Op Profit 8.5m
ammortisation 1.4m
exceptionals nil
interest 0.2m
PBT 6.9m
tax 2.3m
profit 4.6m

basic eps 1.58p forward pe 20ish
adj eps 2.06p forward pe 15ish

Daniel Stewart

MORNING BRIEF RETAIL DECISIONS

Retail Decisions (ReD), the leading supplier of payment solutions and card fraud prevention systems to the payments industry worldwide, has announced strong results for the year to December 31st, 2004, in line with forecasts and bearing out Octobers positive trading statement (see Morning Flash 28th October, 2004). The business continues to be profitable, cash generative and highly scaleable across all divisions.
Trading has been good across the two divisions (fuel cards and card fraud prevention). The Australian fuel cards division delivered higher than expected growth, with the card user base growing by 6%, and also benefited from the higher fuel price resulting in increased operating profits of 30% to 6.8m.
In card fraud prevention there was a 48% increase in CNP transactions and a number of significant new contract wins, including Travelocity, Macys and Bloomingdales, a mixture of both newly originated customers, and customers acquired from competitors, demonstrating the strength of the ReD offering. CNP represents the main area of future earnings growth for ReD as the volume of Internet transactions increase. The introduction of Chip and PIN is also making Card Present (CP) transactions more secure and is likely to push fraud towards other payment mechanisms.
Research commissioned by Retail Decisions found that CNP fraud has increased by 22% since the introduction of chip and PIN in January as fraudsters turn their attention to the Internet, mail order, telephone order and interactive TV.
In light of the positive outlook, we are increasing our price target for ReD to 36p (from 31p), a 6% upside to the current share price. This target equates to a FY05 PER of 21.8 times. This is at the upper end of the UK Software and IT Services range but the growth prospects in the CNP business coupled with the revenue visibility in the fuel cards business warrants such a premium. We maintain our BUY recommendation.


http://www.saturn.uk.com/dsc_admin/RTD_morning_flash_010305.pdf