The tiny Irish stock on the brink of landing 'the first' post-sanction oil deal in Iraq. Ref 'Fleet Street Letter' 12-04-04..

Looks as though PET is heading back down. Any ideas where it will end?

skids

Is it time for a quick in and out again ?

brave man that gets this right

Good afternoon (GMT)

While I realise that my very presence (not to mention nationality)can stimulate the negative and often illiterate to half-life, I thought I would nonetheless register my continuing presence on this sensible and carefully moderated board.

While disappointed not to mention hopelessly confused by the "yes they have no they havent" contract situation, is there a show of hands on whether PET have still a proverbial (and seasonal) snowball's chance of good news in the next few weeks (that period to be interpreted as including the end-Jan elections)?
- Livvy

Hi Livvy,

IMHO, PET are in with a chance because they have bid, what is a worry is that they have loaded their bids (understandably) for risk, and admit that they can be undercut by other bidders sourcing cheaper materials. Given the security situation, I can't understand why the government won't underwrite an acceptable level of risk to give a level playing field. My gripe is the statement attributed to PET that they were not in competition for two of the tenders, which was, in hindsight, inaccurate, misleading and inexcusable. However, I'm in this for the ride till the end, have taken a big hit relative to my portfolio and resources, so will hang on in there. The saving grace is the broadening of PET's activities into Jordan and Sudan, whatever future value they may hold.

Re timescales, the first two tenders were recommended two weeks or so after submission, the second which has been referred back to the bidders will presmuably take a similar timescale, therefore the third tender, submitted on the 15th Dec, should be due for recommendation in the next week or so, in my view. So, news there will be, how good it is, is anybody's guess, given the new players who emerged, out of the blue, on the first two. The fact that the first tender was awarded to the Turkish bidder shows that MOO is open for business, but need their decisions endorsed by the Oil & Gas Council, which kicked out OGI.

In reply to daves dazzlers (posting 2165), it may well be but what about the shares?
Chris
ps, from previous postings there seems to be another Chris Pine out there, spooky or what.

the russian oil firm said in a statement issued recently that the company was looking forward to cooperate with the iraqi government to enhance and promote the technical expertise in such a vital sector to the iraqi economy. The company, according to the statement,had also offered 29 scholarships for iraqi engineers. The russian firm used to operate in iraq before the fall of the former regime in iraq.'>

Livvy

The problem is, I think, that most of us put our hand up one minute and down the next. I suspect there is a lot of short-term activity in the share and I suspect charting rules may be irrelevant. Personally, I am taking a three month view and attempting not to let the short-term swings get to me. During that time PET has a number of bites at the cherry: (1) short-list of 3 at Hemrin and I am putting that at evens; (2) Suba-Luhais where there are 6 bidders, say 15%; (3) Zubair (is this a split off from Suba-Lubais?) where there are 5 bidders, presumably including PET, say 20%. Then there is the possible resurrection of Block 6 with the new government in place (views on timing?) and also Sudan. My money is on PET to win an Iraq contract. This may not be particularly profitable in itself but would get the ball rolling. The price would overshoot, inevitably (a good exit time) before reality brings the price back to settle down probably around the 150p mark. That would be better than a snowball in hell! By the way, have you ever thought that hell might be freezing cold!

Eric

In at 46 .

Eric et al

Thanks for your comments, like most of you I do tend to blow hot and cold (no pun intended!)

I remain confident of 1 contract but have grown weary of the tiresome and mindless hype: "next Cairn energy" etc etc. Any overshoot of the price would probably mean that I pack my bags for the time being and look in other sectors for investment opportunities. Off-topic, I made a tidy packet last spring on Stanley Gibbons (stamps, etc, yes, boring I know) but a growing area of interest. I could do with a little boring slow growth (in share capital that is :))

Again many thanks for thoughts and a Happy New Year to "ane an' a"
- Livvy

PS: Charting rules have always always been totally irrelevant to this share: contracts determine success. Id rather examine the entrails of a dead dog to determine sp movement!

livvy,
I totally agree about PET being made ou to be the next Cairn. I have waited a long time for this to go into orbit, although i have made on it, but i think i will sell most if/when they spike on announcement etc.

I am at a loss as to why it`s down the last couple of days, especially with the buys V sells today.

regards,
Dexter

Just found this on fyb,


some news dated 29/12 suggest fires in kirkuk and hamrin fields - could this be causing the sp drop of yesterday?

http://satblog.methaz.org/index.php?p=171

seem to remember buysell posted satellite images some time back - are these the same ones?

to all,
have a happy new year and looking forward to a very wealthy 2005.

dexter

Happy new year to you all. Hope your hangovers are not too bad in the morning!

wilbs

A large number of 10,000 buy trades gone through today, interesting!

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2095-1422074,00.html

The Sunday Times - Business



January 02, 2005

Petrel still upbeat on Iraqi oil prospects



PETREL RESOURCES, the Dublin-based oil exploration minnow whose share price has taken a hammering since it lost out on a lucrative development contract in Iraq, believes it has been a victim of misinformation, writes Douglas Dalby.
John Teeling, the chairman, conceded the company had probably been unsuccessful in winning the first of three imminent contracts from the Iraq administration but said that, contrary to media reports, the company remained in the running for the other two.



We are awaiting notification but this is most likely to come from the government rather than the oil ministry, said Teeling. There have been leaks from the oil ministry but there has been nothing official from the government itself despite recommendations on which companies are to be awarded the contracts.

Teeling said there was genuine confusion about the status of the latter contracts because of the political decision-making process in Iraq.

Shareholders are giving us dogs abuse but there is nothing I can do because I am totally in the dark about this, he said. One analyst said our shares were either 20p or 2 depending on how you looked at things but right now I just dont know.

The share price, which soared last year on speculation of a successful breakthrough in Iraq, ended 2004 at 48p (68c). The shares reached a high of 1.34 last October, a 500% increase on their 24p value in February.

Teeling said that apart from the two imminent contracts down for a decision, a further 66 fields were awaiting development. This would happen, he believed, regardless of the outcome of the elections scheduled for next month, and Petrel had built up the expertise to bid on many of them.

Anybody else running with an open short on this!

Good morning and Happy New Year to one and all!

Now lets get down to business!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Ha Ha, here we go again!

dave - not on your life...........

I have just read an unsubsatiated report on advfn saying shareholders are getting together to boot out the management.

Personnally I doubt it, but I thought it worth relaying just in case Tokyo and dexter01 are looking for a job!